Group 1 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," with strategies focusing on "anti-involution" and "promoting outbound" as key measures to address current economic development bottlenecks and cultivate new growth momentum [2][4] - The aviation industry is expected to see accelerated profit recovery in 2026, with strong performance in 2025 and support from policies aimed at reducing competition and boosting demand [4] - The express delivery industry is identified as a benchmark for "anti-involution," with expected improvements in 2026 as price increases take effect and profits begin to recover [4] Group 2 - Jitu Express is highlighted for its growth potential in Southeast Asia and Latin America, benefiting from a strong partnership with TikTok, leading to a 65% increase in parcel volume in 2025 [3] - Jiayou International is focusing on logistics in Africa, with significant profit contributions expected from coal trade in Mongolia and rapid growth potential in Africa [3] - The shipping industry is experiencing a global shift, with oil transportation seeing high demand due to OPEC+ production increases and sanctions, while dry bulk shipping is anticipated to improve as new mining projects come online [5]

Core Insights - 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with strategies focusing on "reducing internal competition" and "promoting overseas expansion" as key measures to address current economic challenges and foster new growth momentum in the transportation sector [3]. Group 1: Industry Focus Areas - The transportation industry will concentrate on four main lines of development in alignment with the "14th Five-Year Plan" policies and industry trends [3]. - The aviation and express delivery sectors are highlighted for their potential in achieving high-quality development through reduced internal competition [4]. - The shipping industry is undergoing global changes, with oil transportation experiencing a boom while the dry bulk sector faces challenges [5]. Group 2: Overseas Expansion Opportunities - Jitu Express is positioned as a rare player in Southeast Asia and Latin America, benefiting from the rapid growth of Tiktok and a projected 65% increase in parcel volume in Southeast Asia for the first three quarters of 2025 [6]. - Jiao You International is focusing on logistics in Africa, with coal trade in Mongolia expected to rebound significantly in the second half of 2025, while Africa is anticipated to become a major growth driver [6]. - The aviation sector is expected to see accelerated profit recovery in 2026, with major airlines likely to achieve profitability in 2025 [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The express delivery sector is set to improve in 2026, with the industry experiencing a price recovery following a period of intense competition [6]. - Oil transportation is benefiting from OPEC+ production increases and seasonal demand, leading to rising freight rates [6]. - The dry bulk shipping sector is expected to see a recovery in demand due to new mining projects and potential interest rate cuts [6]. Group 4: Economic Transition and Stability - The report emphasizes the importance of stable output during the economic transition period, with recommendations for investments in highway and port infrastructure [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [12] Core Insights - The report identifies four key development focuses and investment opportunities for the transportation industry over the next five years, summarized as "Two Internals and Two Promotions": combating internal competition, driving domestic demand, promoting overseas expansion, and facilitating transformation [2][6][17] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The ongoing effort to combat internal competition in the express delivery sector is expected to remain effective, positively impacting the entire e-commerce express delivery segment. Key recommendations include YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [2][6][17] Aviation - The implementation of paid staggered vacations is anticipated to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the aviation industry, aiding in reversing the current profitability downturn. Recommendations include A-share private airlines and the three major Hong Kong airlines [2][6][17] Overseas Expansion - The development of new growth poles through overseas expansion and the construction of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor is highlighted. This opens up profit margins for overseas enterprises, with continued recommendations for Jitu Express, Jiayou International, and Eastern Airlines Logistics [2][6][17] Green Transition - The report emphasizes the acceleration of green low-carbon transformation, marking the year as a significant one for green fuel investments. The focus is on promoting a green production and lifestyle, particularly in the transportation sector [2][6][17] Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger traffic has shown a 5% year-on-year increase, while international passenger traffic has risen by 20%. The domestic passenger load factor has improved by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, and international load factors have increased by 5.6 percentage points [7][40] Maritime Transport - The average VLCC-TCE rate has surged by 44.1% to $114,000 per day, driven by increased demand from the Middle East. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping has risen by 10.5% to 1,551 points, indicating a favorable market environment [8][61][62] Logistics - The volume of express deliveries has increased by 9.9% year-on-year, with a stable demand for coal transportation. The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the express delivery sector, recommending investments in YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, and Zhongtong Express [9][17]