Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in net supply of ordinary credit bonds and the ongoing negative net supply of perpetual bonds, indicating a tightening market environment [3][4][5]. Primary Market - In the current period (February 9, 2026 - February 15, 2026), the total issuance of ordinary credit bonds is 139 billion, with net financing of 36.3 billion, a significant decrease from the previous period's 358.7 billion and 256.5 billion respectively [3][4]. - The issuance of industrial bonds has decreased to 76.8 billion, with net financing dropping to 19.1 billion, while local government bonds have seen a reduction to 62.2 billion in issuance and a sharp decline in net financing to 17.2 billion [3][4]. - There has been no issuance of bank perpetual bonds for six consecutive weeks this year, with net financing for secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds being negative at -2 billion and -3 billion respectively [3][4]. Secondary Market - In the last week before the holiday, credit bond yields have generally declined, with credit spreads narrowing for most categories, particularly for perpetual bonds which outperformed ordinary credit bonds [3][4]. - The yield on high-grade local government bonds (10Y AAA) has improved by -10.6 basis points, while the 7Y bank perpetual bonds showed a yield decrease of over 5 basis points across all ratings [3][4]. - The trading volume for ordinary credit bonds and bank perpetual bonds has decreased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [9]. Credit Strategy - The article suggests that the core issue for the bond market remains the diversion of funds to the stock market, emphasizing the importance of interest rate arbitrage and coupon value in credit bonds [3][4]. - The current bond market is characterized by a pessimistic expectation correction, with a potential shift towards a phase of spread compression, although overall space for further compression is limited [3][4]. - It is recommended to focus on high-grade ordinary credit bonds with maturities of 2 years or less, weak-rated local government bonds with maturities of 3 years or less, and high-grade insurance subordinated bonds with maturities of 3-5 years for investment opportunities [3][4].

Group 1 - The net supply of ordinary credit bonds increased on a month-on-month basis, while there were no new issuances or maturities for perpetual bonds [3][5][6] - The total issuance and net financing of ordinary credit bonds for the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, were 307.4 billion yuan and 183.6 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 328.8 billion yuan and 140.9 billion yuan in the previous period [3][5] - The issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 196.5 billion yuan, while the issuance of urban investment bonds slightly increased to 110.9 billion yuan, with net financing for urban investment bonds significantly rising to 64.3 billion yuan [3][5] Group 2 - In the secondary market, yields and credit spreads showed differentiation, with high-quality bonds performing better than perpetual bonds [3][5][6] - Most yields for high-quality bonds decreased, except for certain maturities, with the best performance seen in 5-year urban investment bonds, which saw a decline of 6.32 basis points [3][5] - The credit spreads for various categories varied, with short-term low-quality high-quality bonds showing better performance, particularly in the 3-year AA-rated medium-term notes and urban investment bonds [3][5][6] Group 3 - The overall pressure in the bond market for February is manageable, with limited room for compression in credit spreads, but the certainty of carry value in short- to medium-term credit bonds remains [3][5] - Recent positive performance in the bond market has been driven by allocation and a cooling equity market, with expectations for stable liquidity from the central bank [3][5] - The real estate sector may see a relaxation of financing restrictions, particularly with new loan support for major developers, which could benefit the valuation recovery of leading state-owned enterprises in the sector [3][5] Group 4 - The strategy suggests focusing on short- to medium-term coupon assets, with a recommendation to extend the duration of high-quality bonds to 3-5 years under the current market conditions [3][5] - There is a cautious outlook on perpetual bonds, with a recommendation to wait for better valuation opportunities as supply increases [3][5] - The demand for high-quality bonds is supported by the need for amortized bond funds, with expectations for a delayed start in related credit market activities [3][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the credit bond ETF Guangfa has shown significant performance with a 0.03% increase, high liquidity, and record scale and shares, indicating strong market activity [1] - The credit bond ETF Guangfa has achieved a turnover rate of 116.35%, leading among similar products, with a total transaction volume of 4.702 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the credit bond ETF Guangfa reached 4.131 billion yuan, marking a new high since its establishment, with shares totaling 41.1177 million, also a recent peak [1] Group 2 - The credit bond ETF Guangfa has seen continuous net inflows over the past 10 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 171 million yuan, totaling 724 million yuan in net inflows [1] - The deep Shenzhen benchmark market-making credit bond index reflects the operational characteristics of the deep market credit bond market, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 8.59% of the index [1] - Longjiang Fixed Income suggests that the market logic is gradually returning to fundamental verification, with external shocks having a marginal weakening effect [2]