机构指出，上周普通信用债下行，利差继续压缩,3Y以内AAA 在3%以内分位数，信用利差处于偏低区间，应以中短端套息 为主。普通商金债上周收益率整体下行，利差再度压缩，目前商金AAA3Y以内利差在10%以内分位数，性价比有限。二永 利差也有收敛，目前整体仍偏窄，但比普通商金债性价比稍高一些。 具体到各品种来看，上周债市逐渐修复，平安公司债ETF（511030）备受关注。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 | 评级/期限 | 1Y-0.5Y | 2Y-1Y | 3Y -2Y | 5Y-3Y | 1Y-0.5Y | 2Y-1Y | 3Y-2Y | 5Y-3Y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国开债 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 13.6% | 8.8% | 25.6% | 8.5% | | AAA | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 24.2% | 25.1% | 28.2% | 16.7% | | AA+ | 0.05 | 0.08 | ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **bond market** and **government debt** supply dynamics in China, along with implications for the **equity market** and **credit bonds**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Government Debt Supply**: The net financing scale of government bonds in Q3 is expected to reach **4.08 trillion yuan**, which may exert pressure on the bond market due to seasonal supply increases [1][4]. 2. **10-Year Treasury Yield**: The 10-year treasury yield is anticipated to be at **1.6%** as a bottom, with a breakthrough in the second half of the year being difficult. The upper limit is projected between **1.8% and 1.9%** [1][6]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The bond market is influenced by various factors including redemption risks, tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and stock market volatility, which add uncertainty to demand [1][5][6]. 4. **Stock Market Influence**: Short-term stock market fluctuations have limited impact on the bond market, but the long-term attractiveness of equities is increasing. A shift in focus from bearish to long-term opportunities in the stock market is recommended [1][7][8]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: A strategy of flexible trading and wave operations is advised for Q3 due to expected volatility. The focus should be on equities rather than relying solely on the bond market, which may see reduced returns and increased volatility [1][9]. 6. **Tax Policy Impact**: The new VAT regulations are expected to have a short-term impact on the bond market, favoring older bonds and benefiting ordinary credit bonds and deposits [1][11]. 7. **Credit Bond Market**: The credit bond market is expected to have more opportunities than risks in August, with a focus on the performance of the stock market as a key variable [1][28]. 8. **Market Disturbances**: Key disturbances in the market include policy changes, stock market volatility, and significant events such as military parades and political meetings, which may affect market sentiment [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **PPI Forecast**: A slight upward adjustment in PPI to around **-3.2%** is predicted for July, with potential recovery in August and September depending on demand-side support [1][18]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: Notable investment opportunities include sectors like **robotics**, **AI**, **military**, and **pharmaceuticals**, which are expected to show structural growth [1][14]. 3. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The economic outlook for Q3 remains resilient, but Q4 will require close monitoring of income and internal demand dynamics [1][22]. 4. **Credit ETF Performance**: Recent performance of credit ETFs showed a rebound after a period of adjustment, indicating potential recovery in investor sentiment [1][30]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the bond market's current state, future expectations, and strategic recommendations for investors.

机构指出，上周普通信用债下行，利差多数持平或小幅走阔，税收政策变化对于普通信用债有小幅利多效果，但在整体利 差偏低(<5%)的情况下，效果也有限，后续还是需要根据主线逻辑来判断利率走势。普通商金债上周收益率整体下行，利 差再度压缩，目前商金利差位置再度偏窄，性价比有限。二永利差也有收敛。 | 数据日期 | | 2025-08-01 | | | | | | | 分位数起始日期 | | 2017-01-03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 信用债到期收益率 | (%) | | | | | 历史分位数 | | | | 评级/期限 | 0.5Y | 1Y | 1.5Y | 2Y | 2.5Y | 3Y | 5Y | 0.5 Y | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | 5Y | | 国开债 | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.54 | 1.59 | 1.62 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | | AAA ...