证 券 研 究 报 告 收益率多上行但利差分化，5年以内普信相对抗跌 信用债市场周度跟踪（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 张晋源 A0230525040001 研究支持： 曹璇 A0230125070001 2026.3.1 主要内容 注：受春节假期影响，本期为2026.02.23-2026.03.01，上期为2026.02.09-2026.02.15 ，收益率和各类利差变动为2.27相对2.14的变动值。 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 一级市场：本期普通信用债净供给环比下降，二永债无新发行与到期。本期（2026.02.23-2026.03.01）普通信用债合计发行/净融资952亿元/-892亿元，上期 （2026.02.09-2026.02.15）分别为1390亿元/363亿元。其中，产业债发行环比下降至503亿元，净融资环比转负至-294亿元；城投债发行环比下降至449亿元，净融 资环比转负至-598亿元。本期银行二永债无发行/到期，上期（2026.02.09-2026.02.1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the bond market may be the diversion of funds from the bond market to the stock market. Attention should be paid to the carry and coupon value of credit bonds. The current bond market is a pessimistic expectation correction market dominated by allocation funds, and may enter a stage of narrowing spreads, but the overall space is still limited. The core contradiction order of the subsequent market is: asset allocation re - balance (stock market diversion) > monetary and fiscal coordination > expectation of price recovery [4]. - For credit bonds, under the support of loose liquidity, the carry strategy of short - and medium - term credit bonds has high certainty, and it is advisable to "increase positions on dips". Under the support of the demand of amortized bond funds, the carry can appropriately extend the duration to 3 - 5 - year medium - and high - grade general credit bonds. Considering that the current credit spreads are at relatively low historical levels, attention should be paid to the coupon value of some varieties and grade sinking. [4] - For secondary perpetual bonds, in the January market, the long - end spreads of secondary perpetual bonds were less compressed, and the catch - up was more obvious in this round of market. In the past two weeks, the allocation power of insurance institutions to secondary perpetual bonds has weakened and even turned into net selling. Considering the valuation and supply - demand changes, it is recommended to be cautious and wait for the opportunity of valuation recovery or supply increase. Also, attention should be paid to the potential participation opportunities of securities company bonds with increasing supply since the beginning of the year. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market - **General Credit Bonds**: The net supply of general credit bonds decreased this period. The issuance of general credit bonds was 139 billion yuan, and the net financing was 36.3 billion yuan, compared with 358.7 billion yuan and 256.5 billion yuan in the previous period respectively. Among them, the issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 76.8 billion yuan, and the net financing decreased to 19.1 billion yuan; the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased to 62.2 billion yuan, and the net financing decreased significantly to 17.2 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of general credit bonds was 2.65 years, a decrease from the previous period (2.91 years). The credit bond bid - upper limit - coupon rate decreased from 0.42% to 0.41%, and the credit bond subscription multiple increased from 2.67 to 2.85 [4][7][17][21]. - **Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds**: There was no issuance of bank secondary perpetual bonds this period, and the net financing scale decreased. The net financing of secondary capital bonds was - 200 million yuan, and the net financing of perpetual bonds was - 3 billion yuan. This was the sixth consecutive week of no issuance this year [4][25]. 3.2 Secondary Market - **Yield and Credit Spread**: The yields of credit bonds generally declined, and most credit spreads narrowed. Among general credit bonds, except for the 1/3Y AA - grade, 7Y AA - grade medium - term notes, and 5Y AAA/AA - grade renewable urban investment bonds, the yields mostly declined. The 10Y high - grade urban investment bonds performed the best (the 10Y AAA - grade urban investment bonds decreased by 10.6BP). The yields of all terms and grades of secondary perpetual bonds declined, and the 7Y bank perpetual bonds performed the best (the yields of 7Y secondary perpetual bonds of all qualifications declined by more than 5BP). Most credit spreads narrowed, with the spreads of general credit bonds within 7 years changing mostly within about 2BP or less. The 10Y urban investment bonds/renewable urban investment bonds performed the best (the 10Y AAA - grade urban investment bonds/renewable urban investment bonds decreased by 8.8BP). Except for the slight widening of the credit spread of 3Y AA - grade bank perpetual bonds, the credit spreads of other terms and grades of secondary perpetual bonds all narrowed. The widening varieties were mainly concentrated in 5Y non - public general credit bonds and 1/3/5/7Y weak - quality medium - term notes [4]. - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rates of general credit bonds and bank secondary perpetual bonds both decreased this week [52]. 3.3 Stock Bond Distribution - The current yields are mostly distributed within 2.4% [6]. - **Industry Bonds**: The average yields of various industries' public - offering industry bonds are presented in a table, showing the distribution by implicit rating and remaining maturity. Most industries' yields are within a relatively low range [106]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The average yields of public - offering urban investment bonds in various regions are presented in a table, showing the distribution by implicit rating and remaining maturity. The yields in most regions are within a relatively low range [108]. - **Small and Medium - Sized Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds**: The average yields of small and medium - sized bank secondary perpetual bonds in various regions are presented in a table, showing the distribution by implicit rating and remaining maturity [110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the primary market, the net supply of ordinary credit bonds increased compared to the previous period, while the net supply of bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds (two - tiered perpetual bonds, "二永债") turned negative due to no issuance this period [4]. - In the secondary market, yields mainly declined, and credit spreads mostly widened. 3 - year ordinary credit bonds, 5 - year financial bonds, and weak - quality urban investment bonds performed well. The turnover rate of ordinary credit bonds and bank perpetual bonds decreased, while that of bank secondary capital bonds increased [4]. - For credit strategies, it is advisable to moderately extend the duration to 3 - 5 years for carry trades, and also focus on short - to - medium - term coupon - bearing assets and the potential cost - effectiveness of ETF component bonds. For two - tiered perpetual bonds, it is recommended to be cautious and wait for opportunities for valuation recovery or increased supply [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Ordinary Credit Bonds - Supply increased compared to the previous period, with the issuance amount reaching 357.3 billion yuan and net financing of 255.1 billion yuan. Both industrial and urban investment bonds saw an increase in issuance and net financing. The issuance of industrial bonds increased to 204.6 billion yuan, and net financing rose to 146.5 billion yuan. The issuance of urban investment bonds increased to 152.7 billion yuan, and net financing reached 108.6 billion yuan, the highest since 2024 [4]. - The weighted issuance term increased to 2.89 years (previously 2.76 years). The weighted issuance terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds also increased [15]. - The credit bond bid - cap minus the coupon rate rose from 0.37% to 0.43%, and the subscription multiple increased from 2.52 to 2.82, indicating increased subscription enthusiasm [21]. 3.1.2 Bank Two - Tiered Perpetual Bonds - There was no issuance of bank two - tiered perpetual bonds this period, and the net financing scale turned negative. Two secondary capital bonds matured, with net financing of - 7 billion yuan, and one perpetual bond matured, with net financing of - 10 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Overall Yield and Credit Spread - Yields mainly declined, with 3 - year ordinary credit bonds, 5 - year financial bonds, and weak - quality urban investment bonds performing better. For example, among 3 - year ordinary credit bonds, the AA - rated extendible industrial bonds had the largest decline of - 5.34BP [4]. - Credit spreads mostly widened, except for a small number of varieties such as 1 - year commercial financial bonds, some weak - quality urban investment bonds, and 10 - year two - tiered perpetual bonds, which saw a slight narrowing. The 5 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds performed best with a - 1.24BP change, while the 5 - year high - grade ordinary credit bonds had a relatively large widening [4]. 3.2.2 Urban Investment Bonds - Yields in various regions mostly declined, and credit spreads mostly widened. Weak - quality urban investment bonds performed better. For example, in Anhui, the yields of AA - rated and AA(2) - rated urban investment bonds decreased by - 1.76BP and - 6.33BP respectively in the past week [59]. - The turnover rate of urban investment bonds in different regions showed different trends, and the trading volume also varied [62][65]. 3.2.3 Industrial Bonds - Yields in various industries showed differentiation, and credit spreads generally widened. For example, in the steel industry, the AA - rated industrial bonds' yields decreased by - 2.30BP in the past week, while in the real estate industry, the AA - rated industrial bonds' yields increased by 4.80BP [68]. - The turnover rate and trading volume of industrial bonds in different industries also showed different characteristics [70][73]. 3.2.4 Financial Bonds - Yields mostly declined, credit spreads generally widened, and the performance of excess spreads was differentiated. For bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds, yields of different ratings and bank types showed different degrees of decline, and credit spreads and excess spreads also changed accordingly [93]. 3.3 Stock Bond Distribution - Currently, most yields are distributed within 2.4%. The average yield distributions of industrial bonds in various industries and urban investment bonds in different regions are presented in detail in the report, with most yields concentrated in a relatively low range [105][106][108].

Group 1 - The net supply of ordinary credit bonds increased on a month-on-month basis, while there were no new issuances or maturities for perpetual bonds [3][5][6] - The total issuance and net financing of ordinary credit bonds for the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, were 307.4 billion yuan and 183.6 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 328.8 billion yuan and 140.9 billion yuan in the previous period [3][5] - The issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 196.5 billion yuan, while the issuance of urban investment bonds slightly increased to 110.9 billion yuan, with net financing for urban investment bonds significantly rising to 64.3 billion yuan [3][5] Group 2 - In the secondary market, yields and credit spreads showed differentiation, with high-quality bonds performing better than perpetual bonds [3][5][6] - Most yields for high-quality bonds decreased, except for certain maturities, with the best performance seen in 5-year urban investment bonds, which saw a decline of 6.32 basis points [3][5] - The credit spreads for various categories varied, with short-term low-quality high-quality bonds showing better performance, particularly in the 3-year AA-rated medium-term notes and urban investment bonds [3][5][6] Group 3 - The overall pressure in the bond market for February is manageable, with limited room for compression in credit spreads, but the certainty of carry value in short- to medium-term credit bonds remains [3][5] - Recent positive performance in the bond market has been driven by allocation and a cooling equity market, with expectations for stable liquidity from the central bank [3][5] - The real estate sector may see a relaxation of financing restrictions, particularly with new loan support for major developers, which could benefit the valuation recovery of leading state-owned enterprises in the sector [3][5] Group 4 - The strategy suggests focusing on short- to medium-term coupon assets, with a recommendation to extend the duration of high-quality bonds to 3-5 years under the current market conditions [3][5] - There is a cautious outlook on perpetual bonds, with a recommendation to wait for better valuation opportunities as supply increases [3][5] - The demand for high-quality bonds is supported by the need for amortized bond funds, with expectations for a delayed start in related credit market activities [3][5]

Key Points - The net supply of ordinary credit bonds in the primary market increased on a month-on-month basis, with total issuance reaching 269.9 billion yuan and net financing at 131.1 billion yuan during the period from January 5 to January 11, 2026 [3][5] - The issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 139.2 billion yuan, while net financing surged to 91.7 billion yuan. Conversely, local government bonds saw a significant increase in issuance to 130.7 billion yuan, the highest since November 2025, with net financing rising to 39.4 billion yuan [3][5] - In the secondary market, bond yields showed mixed performance, with overall credit spreads narrowing, particularly for 1-year bonds, which experienced the largest contraction [3][5] - The yield on 7-year bonds performed the best, with a decline of 2.36 basis points for AA+/AA/AA- rated local government bonds, while 5-year bonds saw an overall increase [3][5] - The trading volume of credit bond ETFs decreased significantly, with a net outflow of 55.3 billion yuan over four days, approaching 50% of the inflow seen in December 2025 [3][5] - The investment outlook for credit bonds remains favorable, with expectations of a stable bond market environment in the first quarter of 2026, despite potential pressures on credit spreads [3][5] - The strategy for credit investment focuses on short to medium-term credit bonds, particularly those with a maturity of 3-5 years, and emphasizes the opportunities presented by high-grade bonds [3][5] - The performance of various credit bonds is expected to vary, with short-term bonds outperforming longer-term bonds in terms of yield and credit spread [3][5][11]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily focus on the fixed income market, particularly the credit bond market and convertible bond market in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Asset Allocation Trends** - The allocation of amortized cost method funds has significantly shifted towards high-grade credit bonds and commercial bank financial bonds, with proportions exceeding 70% for public credit bonds and commercial bank bonds, reflecting a preference for higher yield assets due to low short-term interest rates [1][3][5] 2. **Market Demand Forecast** - By the end of 2026, the remaining maturity scale of amortized cost method funds is expected to reach 744.4 billion yuan, with incremental funding needs for public credit and commercial bank bonds estimated at 200.2 billion yuan and 136.2 billion yuan respectively, indicating a notable increase in market demand for these assets [1][6] 3. **Credit Risk Management** - High-grade central state-owned enterprise bonds dominate the credit asset holdings, with a focus on low credit risk and valuation fluctuations. The preference remains for high-rated credit and commercial bank financial assets [1][7] 4. **Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Outlook** - The recent slowdown in social financing credit growth and the emphasis on structural optimization rather than rapid stimulus suggest a potential opening of the lower bound for interest rate fluctuations in the medium to long term, although short-term expectations for rate cuts remain unfavorable [1][8][9][10] 5. **Impact of Policy on Credit Growth** - Current policy directions support a slowdown in credit growth, which may lead to a contraction in bank balance sheets. Historical data indicates that during periods of slowed bank expansion, the yield spread between long-term and short-term government bonds tends to widen [1][11][12] 6. **Convertible Bond Market Dynamics** - The convertible bond market faces supply and demand pressures, with expected issuance of 50-100 billion yuan in new convertible bonds over the next 6-12 months. Despite this, strong performance of underlying stocks and capital inflows create a positive feedback loop, limiting long-term valuation compression [2][13] 7. **Investment Strategy for Convertible Bonds** - Suggested strategies include focusing on sectors aligned with upward trends in the equity market, such as solid-state batteries and AI applications, while maintaining a balanced portfolio of cyclical and defensive bonds [2][14][15] 8. **Market Outlook** - The overall market outlook remains optimistic despite external disturbances, with limited downside potential and an upward trend expected to dominate, supported by improved corporate performance and favorable policy developments [2][16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The shift in asset allocation reflects a broader trend of institutional investors seeking higher yields in a low-interest-rate environment, indicating a potential long-term change in investment strategies within the fixed income market [1][5] - The emphasis on high-grade assets suggests a cautious approach to credit risk, which may influence future investment decisions and market dynamics [1][7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Yield Mostly Declines Slightly, Medium- and Long-Term Credit Spreads Widen Slightly - Weekly Tracking of the Credit Bond Market (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16)" [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang, Zhang Jinyuan [3] - Research support: Cao Xuan [3] - Report date: November 16, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The primary market shows a decline in the net supply of ordinary credit bonds and secondary and perpetual (two - tier) bank bonds compared to the previous period [4]. - In the secondary market, yields mostly decline slightly, credit spreads generally widen, and 1 - year bonds perform well. The turnover rates of ordinary credit bonds and two - tier bank bonds both decrease [4]. - The bond market enters a policy and data vacuum period. With the unimplemented public offering redemption fee new regulations and the possible continuation of residents' deposit transfer to the equity market, attention should be paid to the coupon value of credit bonds in the volatile market [4]. - In terms of credit strategies, the 1 - 3 - year period still has carry - trade space and cost - effectiveness, and investors can also moderately focus on 3 - 5 - year high - grade bonds, but should remain cautious about extending credit duration [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Primary Market 4.1.1 Ordinary Credit Bonds - Net financing decreases compared to the previous period, and subscription enthusiasm rises. The issuance of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds both decline slightly, and the net financing of urban investment bonds turns negative [4][7][11]. - The net financing of each enterprise nature is positive. The weighted issuance term is 2.98 years, a slight decrease from the previous period. The weighted issuance term of urban investment bonds increases, while that of industrial bonds decreases [16][17]. 4.1.2 Bank Two - Tier Bonds - Five small and medium - sized bank two - tier bonds are issued, and the net financing scale decreases compared to the previous period. The net financing of secondary capital bonds turns positive, while that of perpetual bonds decreases significantly [4][25][27]. 4.2 Secondary Market 4.2.1 Yields and Credit Spreads - Yields mostly decline slightly, and credit spreads, except for 1 - year bonds, generally widen. 3/5/7 - year weak - quality varieties see larger yield declines, while 10 - year AAA - grade ordinary credit bonds have a relatively large upward amplitude in yields [4][35][37]. - In terms of credit spreads, 1 - year bonds, except for medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds, all narrow, with low - grade bonds performing better. 5/7/10 - year medium - and high - grade bonds mostly widen, but the 5 - year AA - grade medium - term note performs best [4]. 4.2.2 Turnover Rate - The turnover rates of ordinary credit bonds and two - tier bank bonds both decrease [4] 4.3存量债分布 - Current yields are mostly distributed within 2.2% [34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the ordinary credit bonds have declined, with spreads continuing to compress, and AAA bonds with a maturity of 3 years or less are within the 3% percentile range, suggesting a focus on short to medium-term arbitrage [1] - Ordinary commercial paper bonds have seen a general decline in yields, with spreads compressing again, currently showing AAA 3-year spreads within the 10% percentile range, indicating limited cost-effectiveness [1] - The spreads for secondary bonds have also narrowed, remaining relatively tight but offering slightly better cost-effectiveness compared to ordinary commercial paper bonds [1] Group 2 - Data as of August 8, 2025, shows the yield rates for various credit bonds, with AAA bonds yielding 1.83% for 3-year maturities, and the historical percentile for this yield is at 0.3% [2] - The credit spreads for AAA bonds are reported at 0.20% for 3-year maturities, with a historical percentile of 2.6% [2] - The yield spread for AAA bonds over 1-year to 0.5-year is 0.05%, with a historical percentile of 24.2% [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **bond market** and **government debt** supply dynamics in China, along with implications for the **equity market** and **credit bonds**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Government Debt Supply**: The net financing scale of government bonds in Q3 is expected to reach **4.08 trillion yuan**, which may exert pressure on the bond market due to seasonal supply increases [1][4]. 2. **10-Year Treasury Yield**: The 10-year treasury yield is anticipated to be at **1.6%** as a bottom, with a breakthrough in the second half of the year being difficult. The upper limit is projected between **1.8% and 1.9%** [1][6]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The bond market is influenced by various factors including redemption risks, tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and stock market volatility, which add uncertainty to demand [1][5][6]. 4. **Stock Market Influence**: Short-term stock market fluctuations have limited impact on the bond market, but the long-term attractiveness of equities is increasing. A shift in focus from bearish to long-term opportunities in the stock market is recommended [1][7][8]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: A strategy of flexible trading and wave operations is advised for Q3 due to expected volatility. The focus should be on equities rather than relying solely on the bond market, which may see reduced returns and increased volatility [1][9]. 6. **Tax Policy Impact**: The new VAT regulations are expected to have a short-term impact on the bond market, favoring older bonds and benefiting ordinary credit bonds and deposits [1][11]. 7. **Credit Bond Market**: The credit bond market is expected to have more opportunities than risks in August, with a focus on the performance of the stock market as a key variable [1][28]. 8. **Market Disturbances**: Key disturbances in the market include policy changes, stock market volatility, and significant events such as military parades and political meetings, which may affect market sentiment [1][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **PPI Forecast**: A slight upward adjustment in PPI to around **-3.2%** is predicted for July, with potential recovery in August and September depending on demand-side support [1][18]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: Notable investment opportunities include sectors like **robotics**, **AI**, **military**, and **pharmaceuticals**, which are expected to show structural growth [1][14]. 3. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The economic outlook for Q3 remains resilient, but Q4 will require close monitoring of income and internal demand dynamics [1][22]. 4. **Credit ETF Performance**: Recent performance of credit ETFs showed a rebound after a period of adjustment, indicating potential recovery in investor sentiment [1][30]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the bond market's current state, future expectations, and strategic recommendations for investors.

Group 1 - The overall credit bond market experienced a downward trend last week, with spreads mostly remaining stable or slightly widening, influenced by tax policy changes that had a limited positive effect on credit bonds due to low overall spreads (<5%) [1] - The yield on commercial paper bonds decreased overall last week, leading to a further compression of spreads, indicating limited value for commercial paper bonds at their current spread levels [1] - The yield data for various credit bonds shows that the yields for AAA-rated bonds range from 1.68% for 1-year to 1.97% for 5-year, while AA-rated bonds range from 1.75% for 1-year to 2.15% for 5-year [2] Group 2 - The recent interest tax policy has objectively improved the cost-effectiveness of credit bonds, suggesting that there may still be opportunities in the credit market, although credit spreads remain low [3] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board bond ETF and the investment opportunities in corporate bond ETF (511030) [3]