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第二批14只科创债ETF明日开启募集!首批10只科创债ETF规模已突破1200亿元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-11 09:18
Group 1 - The second batch of 14 science and technology innovation bond ETFs will begin fundraising, with 9 products available for one day and 4 for three trading days, while 1 product will have a five-day fundraising period [1] - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs has exceeded a total scale of 120 billion yuan, growing over 300% from the initial fundraising amount [2] - The introduction of the new batch of products is expected to further accelerate the expansion of the bond ETF market, with science and technology innovation bond ETFs becoming the highest market capitalization subcategory [2] Group 2 - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the interest rate strategy has been dominant since 2025, with science and technology innovation bond ETFs showing certain resilience during adjustment periods [3] - The bond market has experienced significant volatility since 2025, with the value of duration strategies declining, while credit bond interest rate strategies have shown advantages [3] - The recent regulatory changes regarding fund sales fees are expected to create greater development opportunities for bond ETFs, as higher redemption fee thresholds may redirect investments from other bond funds to bond ETFs [3]
被动指数债基系列专题七:三个维度与一个变量:第二批科创债ETF如何筛选
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The second batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs is about to be issued. It is advisable to select products with top - ranked comprehensive strength in fixed - income management, company empowerment, and ETF operation. Under the new sales fee regulations, bond ETFs are expected to have greater development opportunities [1][3]. - The scale of the first batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs has expanded rapidly, and the second batch of 14 products will be issued on September 12, 2025, which will further boost the market expansion, enrich investor choices, and improve market liquidity and pricing efficiency [3]. - Since 2025, the coupon strategy has been dominant, and Sci - tech Bond ETFs have shown certain resilience during market adjustments. With the improvement of the market environment, the liquidity of bond ETFs is expected to continue to improve [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Expansion of Underlying Bonds of Sci - tech Bonds: Continuous Growth in Quantity and Scale - Since the joint release of the relevant announcement by the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission on May 7, 2025, the supply of sci - tech bonds has been increasing. As of the first half of 2025, 853 sci - tech bonds were issued with a cumulative scale of 989.1 billion yuan. From the beginning of the second half of the year to early September, 459 bonds were issued with a scale of 431.6 billion yuan. This provides a wider selection of underlying bonds for Sci - tech Bond ETFs [7]. - As of September 8, 2025, 42.8% of the remaining maturity of outstanding sci - tech bonds is concentrated in 1 - 3 years, and the average remaining maturity after balance - weighting is about 3.4 years. In the future, the duration of issuance is expected to increase [8]. - As of September 8, 2025, over 85% of the outstanding balance of broad - sense sci - tech bonds is issued by central and local state - owned enterprises, while the proportion of private enterprises has also increased, exceeding 7.2% [8]. 3.2. The Market of Sci - tech Bond ETFs is Expected to Maintain High - level Prosperity 3.2.1. The First Batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs Performed Well After Listing - The first batch of 10 Sci - tech Bond ETFs were issued on July 7, 2025, with an initial raise of about 29 billion yuan. As of September 8, 2025, the total scale exceeded 120 billion yuan, a growth of over 300% compared to the initial amount, accounting for 21.3% of all bond ETFs [15]. - Since mid - July, the trading of the first batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs has been active. As of September 8, 2025, the average daily trading volume of some funds exceeded 7 billion yuan, and that of others was above 4 billion yuan [15]. - In 2025, the coupon strategy of credit bonds has shown advantages, and Sci - tech Bond ETFs have shown certain resilience during market adjustments. Their callback amplitude is smaller than that of interest - rate bond ETFs, and they have better secondary - market acceptance [16][22]. 3.2.2. The Second Batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs is About to be Listed, and the Market is Expected to Expand at an Accelerated Pace - The second batch of 14 Sci - tech Bond ETFs was approved on September 8, 2025, and will be issued on September 12. The participating entities are more diversified, which will accelerate the expansion of the bond ETF market. Sci - tech Bond ETFs will become the largest sub - category in terms of market value [25]. - The three major indices tracked by Sci - tech Bond ETFs have excellent historical returns. The CSI AAA Sci - tech Bond Index has a higher underlying bond capacity, with a cumulative return of 13.29 and an annualized return of 4.89% from the end of 2022 to September 9, 2025 [26]. 3.3. How to Select the Second Batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs: Three Dimensions and One Variable 3.3.1. The Comprehensive Strength in Fixed - Income Management, Company Empowerment, and ETF Operation Will Determine Success - With the expansion of the Sci - tech Bond ETF market, competition will intensify. The comprehensive strength in fixed - income management, company empowerment, and ETF operation will determine whether a product can stand out [30]. - Among the issuers of the second batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs, Huatai - PineBridge has strong comprehensive strength. As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, its managed asset scale exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and the scale of bond funds exceeded 260 billion yuan. Its ETF management scale also exceeded 100 billion yuan. It also adopted the T + 1 same - day bond - replenishment model [31]. 3.3.2. Under the New Sales Fee Regulations, Bond ETFs are Expected to Have Greater Development Opportunities - On September 5, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a notice on soliciting opinions on the revised regulations of public - offering fund sales fees. The optimization of the redemption - fee mechanism will have a significant impact on bond funds [38]. - The new regulations require that 100% of the redemption fee be included in the fund property, simplify the redemption - fee schedule to three levels, and cover all bond - fund categories, which will increase the cost of short - term trading [38]. - Calculations show that under the new regulations, redeeming bond funds within six months may not be economically viable. In a low - interest - rate environment, bond ETFs are expected to attract more trading - oriented funds [40][41].
信用债周策略20250907:信用债票息策略有优势吗
Minsheng Securities· 2025-09-07 14:48
Group 1: Credit Bond Yield Strategy - The credit bond yield strategy shows advantages as credit bonds have demonstrated strong anti-drawdown characteristics in the current adjustment market, with their adjustment pace and magnitude closely following government bonds [1][9] - The current market conditions suggest that credit bonds still possess certain yield value, warranting continued attention, although the protection space of credit spreads is insufficient [1][9] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a challenging month for the bond market, with a less than 15% probability of interest rates declining in September over the past seven years [1][16] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Fund Behavior - Credit bonds are expected to continue fluctuating weakly in September, but the adjustment magnitude is relatively controllable, as the net selling momentum of funds may weaken [2][20] - Funds significantly sold off credit bonds with maturities over five years in July and August, totaling over 370 billion yuan, leading to a noticeable reduction in long-term bond positions [2][20] - Despite the large net selling, credit bonds did not experience sustained negative feedback, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2][20] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on ordinary credit bond varieties, particularly those with good credit quality and larger outstanding amounts, such as 3Y/AAA+ and AAA bonds yielding around 1.88% and 1.90% respectively [3][23] - For urban investment bonds, the yields for bonds with maturities under 2 years have been compressed to historical low levels, suggesting a focus on high-quality issuers in favorable regions [3][23] - The report recommends prioritizing 4Y and 6Y perpetual bonds while avoiding lower-rated options, maintaining a focus on liquidity and flexibility in bond selection [3][23] Group 4: Policy Impact on Economic Growth - Recent policies aimed at boosting high-tech industries and expanding domestic demand are expected to stimulate economic growth, as indicated by rising manufacturing and service sector PMIs [4][27] - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI reached 50.3%, reflecting an overall improvement in economic conditions [4][27] - The service sector is showing significant recovery, with business activity indices indicating strong growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4][28]