素有"华尔街一哥"之称的摩根大通CEO杰米•戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）近日警告称，信贷市场可能正在酝酿麻 烦。当时他形象地指出，"如果你看到一只蟑螂，往往意味着还有更多蟑螂存在。" 他当时是在评论次级汽车贷款机构Tricolour和汽车零部件供应商First Brands破产一事。而据罗森博格研究公 司（Rosenberg Research）称，有迹象表明，戴蒙所暗示的问题已经更为普遍。 该公司在最新报告中指出，"杰米•戴蒙看起来越来越正确——当信贷压力在家庭和企业部门积聚的迹象出现 时，总是有不止一只'蟑螂'。" 以下是"信贷蟑螂"可能潜伏的三大警告信号： 1.新增逾期贷款数量正在上升。 越来越多的贷款进入逾期还款状态。根据纽约联邦储备银行的数据，第三季度新增逾期贷款（即借款人逾期 还款至少30天的贷款）余额上升5.3%。这是自2014年以来的最高新增逾期率。 以下是第三季度贷款类型的分类： 汽车贷款：早期违约率为7.7% 信用卡贷款：早期违约率为8.8% 学生贷款：早期违约率为14.4% 抵押贷款：早期违约率为3.6% 2.更多的贷款严重逾期 更多的消费者也陷入了所谓的"严重"拖欠，即贷款还款逾期90 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "ticket grabbing war" among banks in the fourth quarter has led to a significant drop in bill rates, with the 3-month national bank bill rate falling to 0.01% at the end of October, reflecting strong demand from institutions during critical periods [3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "zero interest rate" bills typically occurs at month-end or quarter-end due to banks' need to meet credit scale assessments, leading to a temporary surge in demand that exceeds supply [3][6]. - As of November 11, the bill market continues to show a buyer-dominated pattern with rates declining by 2-10 basis points, indicating strong demand for bills maturing in 4-5 months [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Trends - Since 2021, bill rates have consistently shown a similar downward trend in the fourth quarter, with zero rates appearing earlier each year; in 2023, this occurred in early November [6][8]. - The historical data indicates that the zero interest rate phenomenon has been occurring increasingly earlier, with 2021 and 2022 seeing zero rates in late December, while 2023 saw it in early November [6]. Group 3: Implications for Credit and Investment - The drop in bill rates to near zero reflects a broader "asset shortage" where banks are increasingly pursuing low-risk credit assets, despite low returns on investment [6][8]. - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in bill rates signals potential credit pressure for banks, despite supportive policies for medium to long-term loans [7][8].

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：如果出现经济下行，信贷压力将超出预期。如果失业率上升，消费者端可能会面临 更大的压力。 ...