Group 1 - The report highlights the adjustment of the value-added tax policy on interest income from government bonds, which will be reinstated for new issues starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1][8][10] - The adjustment aims to enhance the pricing mechanism of the bond market and better establish the benchmark role of government bond rates, reflecting the government's commitment to tax reform and market development [1][10][12] - The current bond market size is reported at 189.76 trillion yuan, with government bonds accounting for 38.02 trillion yuan, local government bonds for 52.51 trillion yuan, and financial bonds for 42.34 trillion yuan [10][12] Group 2 - Public funds will maintain a tax advantage post-policy adjustment, which is expected to increase demand for self-operated and outsourced investments by banks, particularly in government and local bonds [2][12][14] - The effective tax rates post-adjustment are calculated at 3.26% for public funds and 6.34% for bank self-operated investments, necessitating a yield compensation of 4-8 basis points for public funds and 8-15 basis points for banks on newly issued bonds [2][14][24] - The report anticipates that the market will experience short-term fluctuations as investors adjust to the new tax implications, with potential downward pressure on existing bond yields and upward adjustments on new bond coupon rates [3][17][26] Group 3 - The adjustment is expected to influence the pricing of government bond futures, with new issues potentially requiring higher yields to become the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) bonds [4][26] - The report indicates that the difficulty of new bonds becoming CTD will vary across different futures contracts, with certain contracts being more affected than others [4][26][27] - The analysis includes detailed calculations of the tax implications for various investor types, illustrating the differences in effective tax burdens before and after the policy change [21][22][24]

业 研 究 2025 年 08 月 03 日 增值税调整对银行配债行为及业绩影响 ——行业点评报告 《企业短贷高增与票据利率的窄幅波 动—行业点评报告》-2025.8.1 《坚守"绝对收益"的现实与未来— 理财 2025H1 半年报解读》-2025.8.1 《险资增配动因与 PB-ROE 估值曲线 演变"新范式"—行业深度报告》 -2025.7.31 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 增值税新规落地，对政府债、金融债利息收入恢复征收增值税 刘呈祥（分析师） 朱晓云（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070010 财政部、税务总局公告，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新 发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。 （1）新老划断：老券及含续发机制债券依然享受增值税减免，新券发行理论上 需加回增值税率补偿。 （2）银行、保险、券商等自营 ...