在全世界都盼望着美联储于10月份降息之际，鲍威尔最近的讲话给大家泼了一盆冷水。 他在罗德岛的讲话中并未为十月降息提供清晰的指引，还预警关税对通胀的影响可能会持续。 有意思的是，美联储的其他决策者意见出现分歧，其中美联储负责监管方面的副主席鲍曼表示，美联储 在支持就业方面可能行动迟缓，如果需求下降、企业开始裁员，美联储可能需要加快降息的步伐；而亚 特兰大联储总裁则认为，特朗普的关税措施虽然暂未明显推高物价，但美国经济仍面临通胀风险；芝加 哥联储总裁认为，如果通胀降温，美联储有下调指标利率的空间。 另一方面，经济数据也不是太理想。标普全球的数据显示，美国9月综合PMI初值从上个月的54.6降至 53.6，其中制造业PMI初值从上个月的53.0降至52.0；服务业初值则从上个月的54.5降至53.9，这是商业 活动连续第二个月放缓。该机构还透露，虽然企业抱怨关税推高成本，但并未提高商品和服务售价，而 且企业正在消化大部分进口关税，这在一定程度上或缓和通胀升幅。 受此影响，在过去两日下跌的美元先跌后回稳，现报97.3以上。9月份欧元区综合PMI稍微上升至51.2， 大致符合预期，其中服务业增长超出预期，但制造业滑落至 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The new VAT regulations will impact the interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, effective from August 8, 2025, leading to a potential decrease in banks' willingness to hold these bonds until maturity [3][13] - The adjustment in banks' bond allocation strategies is expected, with a shift towards more active trading and increased demand for external fund investments due to the new tax implications [4][22] - The overall performance of banks may be negatively affected by the new VAT rules, with estimated impacts on revenue and net profit for listed banks [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Key Points of the New VAT Regulations - The new VAT regulations will restore the collection of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025 [3][13] - Existing bonds and those under a renewal mechanism will continue to enjoy VAT exemptions until maturity [13][14] 2. Impact on Bond Allocation and Trading - Banks will need to adjust their hold-to-maturity strategies, with those capable of trading benefiting more from the new environment [4][22] - The scarcity of older bonds will lead banks to be more reluctant to sell, potentially slowing down the realization of investment gains [4][24] - There will be a phase of increased demand for external fund investments, particularly from banks with significant government bond maturities [4][22] 3. Performance Impact of the New VAT Regulations - The estimated VAT on newly allocated interest-bearing bonds could account for approximately 0.17% of revenue and 0.44% of net profit for listed banks, with state-owned banks being more significantly impacted [5][6] - The new VAT rules may weaken tax-exempt income and increase the cost of issuing bonds, necessitating close monitoring of potential adjustments to income tax rules related to bond investments [5][6] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for dividend-paying stocks due to the reduced attractiveness of low-risk bonds [6] - Specific banks are recommended based on their risk profiles and potential for profit growth, including CITIC Bank, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and others [6]