[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（8.18-8.22） 整体受压于利率上行，可转债 ETF 表现占优 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF 份额走势：上周国债类、可转债类 ETF 份额激增，信用债类 ETF份额转跌。截至 2025年 8月 22日收盘，国债类、政金债类、地方债类、 信用债类和可转债类份额较 2025 年 8 月 15 日收盘分别变化 61.29 百万份、 -23.71 百万份、无变化、-24.81百万份、520.30百万份，债券类 ETF合计变 化 533.07百万份；较上月底收盘分别变化 88.02百万份、-37.90百万份、-0.40 百万份、169.83百万份、10 ...

中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 【导读】海富通上证可转债ETF、华宝金融科技ETF双双突破百亿元 市场迭创新高，ETF势如破竹。 8月21日，海富通上证可转债ETF、华宝金融科技ETF双双突破百亿元。 目前， 行业主题类百亿级ETF产品数量已达22只，股票ETF（含跨境ETF）合计规模站上4万亿元大关，再创新高。 此外， 市场上百 亿 级债券ETF达2 5 只，全市场债券ETF总规模超5400亿元，较年初增长超千亿元。 具体来看，截至8月 21 日， 博时可转债ETF和 海富通短融ETF规模已突破500亿元大关，分别达到573.43 亿元、 530.91亿元； 富国 政 金债券ETF规模达到469.57亿元；海富通城投债ETF、公司债ETF易方达、平安公司债ETF、鹏扬30年国债ETF、南方上证公司债ETF、华 夏信用债ETF的规模均在200亿元之上。 今年以来，全市场39只债券ETF总规模超5400亿元，相较年初增长超1300亿元，规模增速遥遥领先。 目前，市场上百亿级债券ETF已经 达2 5 只，占比约六成。 沪上一位第三方研究人士表示，多只债券型ETF规模快速增长并突破百亿元，背后原因包括 近年来 债券市场整体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the share of treasury bond ETFs significantly rebounded, while the growth momentum of credit bond and convertible bond ETFs continued. Convertible bond ETFs showed outstanding performance with an increase in share and net value, as well as the highest cumulative net inflow [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of August 15, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs were 555.45 million, 491.75 million, 79.78 million, 3101.15 million, and 4675.35 million respectively, with a total of 8903.48 million for bond - type ETFs. Compared with August 8, 2025, the changes were 37.52 million, - 9.28 million, - 1.60 million, 40.77 million, and 241.90 million respectively, and the total change for bond - type ETFs was 309.32 million. Compared with the end of last month, the changes were 26.72 million, - 14.39 million, - 0.40 million, 194.64 million, and 490.20 million respectively, and the total change for bond - type ETFs was 696.78 million [2][5]. 1.2 主要债券 ETF 份额走势 - The share changes of major bond ETFs were consistent with those of various bond ETFs. As of August 15, 2025, the shares of selected major bond ETFs changed by 24.50 million, - 8.58 million, - 1.00 million, 25.20 million, and 236.30 million respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][7]. - The share trend of credit bond ETFs was gentle. As of August 15, 2025, among the 8 existing credit bond ETFs, most showed no change compared with the previous week's closing, except for one with a 0.30 - million increase [2][10]. - The share performance of individual science - innovation bond ETFs was differentiated, but the overall growth was maintained. As of August 15, 2025, among the 10 existing science - innovation bond ETFs, the share changes compared with the previous week's closing were - 1.25 million, 0.44 million, 40.15 million, - 0.25 million, no change, no change, 0.10 million, 3.40 million, 0.05 million, and no change respectively [2][13]. 1.3 主要债券 ETF 净值走势 - Last week, the net values of major bond ETFs turned down, while convertible bond ETFs rose against the trend. As of August 15, 2025, the net values of selected major bond ETFs changed by - 1.75%, - 0.48%, - 0.12%, - 0.08%, and 1.56% respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][15]. - The net values of credit bond ETFs declined across the board. As of August 15, 2025, the net values of 8 credit bond ETFs changed by - 0.14%, - 0.14%, - 0.13%, - 0.12%, - 0.18%, - 0.18%, - 0.19%, and - 0.18% respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][17]. - The net values of science - innovation bond ETFs slightly declined. As of August 15, 2025, the net values of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs changed by - 0.16%, - 0.13%, - 0.16%, - 0.17%, - 0.15%, - 0.18%, - 0.17%, - 0.12%, - 0.16%, and - 0.15% respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][21]. 1.4 部分债券 ETF 净流入情况 - Convertible bond ETFs had the highest cumulative net inflow last week and this month. Weekly, the top three bond ETFs with cumulative net inflows were convertible bond ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and 30 - year treasury bond ETFs, with net inflow amounts of 313.03 million yuan, 36.12 million yuan, and 31.13 million yuan respectively. Monthly, the top three were convertible bond ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETFs, with net inflow amounts of 556.90 million yuan, 197.80 million yuan, and 86.56 million yuan respectively. In terms of cumulative trading days, the top three in the past 10 trading days were convertible bond ETFs (481.93 million yuan), urban investment bond ETFs (186.62 million yuan), and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETFs (92.76 million yuan); and in the past 20 trading days, they were convertible bond ETFs (1096.32 million yuan), urban investment bond ETFs (242.94 million yuan), and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETFs (152.66 million yuan) [2][24].

展望后市，多位机构人士认为，债券ETF的市场渗透率仍存在提升空间。一方面，随着养老金、年金等长期资金入市，对低风险、高流动性工具 的需求将持续增长；另一方面，ETF产品的费率优势与策略透明度，使其在资产配置中的"压舱石"作用愈发凸显。 鹏扬30年国债ETF(511090)是目前市场上首只跟踪中债30年期国债指数的ETF，具备T+0交易属性，既可使得投资者日内低买高卖博取收益，也可 帮助投资者快速拉长组合久期或用作对冲权益仓位。该产品可以作为客户的高弹性现金管理工具和组合久期调节工具，短期在市场利率波动放大 时，具备较强的交易属性，长期在低利率的背景下，具备较强的配置属性，值得投资者积极关注。 风险提示：本处所列示信息仅用于沟通交流之目的，仅供参考，不构成对任何个股的投资建议。"基金有风险，投资需谨慎" 8月15日讯，国债市场早盘小幅拉升。截至上午10:05，30年国债ETF(511090)涨0.03%。债市方面，30年期国债期货合约(TL2509)最新价为117.76 元，跌0.06%，成交量为17478手，总持仓量为72453手。其余国债期货合约10年期国债(T2509)涨0.01%；5年期国债(TF250 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond ETF market is experiencing significant growth, with the launch of new products and increasing investor participation, leading to a surge in the number of billion-yuan bond ETFs [2][3][7]. Group 1: Market Overview - On August 5, the BoShi Sci-Tech Bond ETF reached a scale of 10.031 billion yuan, contributing to a total bond ETF market size of nearly 520 billion yuan [2][4][8]. - There are currently 24 bond ETFs with a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 60% of the market [7]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The rapid growth of bond ETFs is attributed to a strong bond market, the clear advantages of bond ETFs, demand for asset allocation amid an "asset shortage," and ongoing product innovation [7][9]. - The bond ETF market has seen a significant increase in scale, growing from 23.964 billion yuan at the end of 2021 to 52.943 billion yuan by the end of 2022, and further to 80.152 billion yuan by the end of 2023, marking an increase of over 50% [9]. Group 3: Investor Participation - In 2023, the total inflow of funds into bond ETFs reached 274.341 billion yuan, with several company bond ETFs attracting over 20 billion yuan each [9]. - The bond market's bullish trend has encouraged increased allocation to bond ETFs, with their inherent advantages such as ease of trading, risk diversification, and lower fees being highlighted [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond ETF market is expected to continue its steady growth as the bond market develops and investor understanding of bond ETFs deepens [7][10]. - The expansion of bond ETF varieties and improvements in trading mechanisms are anticipated to enhance market recognition and acceptance [10].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of bond ETFs in China, driven by increasing investor demand for stable and transparent investment tools, has positioned Hai Fu Tong Fund as a leading player in this market, contributing significantly to the growth and innovation of bond ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth and Development - The first bond ETF, the National Debt ETF, was established in 2013 with an issuance scale of 5.4 billion yuan, and by May 2024, the market size of bond ETFs surpassed 100 billion yuan, reaching over 400 billion yuan by July 2025 [1]. - As of July 17, 2025, the total scale of Hai Fu Tong Fund's bond ETFs exceeded 100 billion yuan, making it one of the first fund companies to achieve this milestone [1]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Strategy - Hai Fu Tong Fund has launched various innovative products, including short-term financing bond ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, local government bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs, enriching the bond ETF product lineup [1][8]. - The Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short-term Financing Bond ETF, established in August 2020, saw its scale grow from 50 million yuan to 53.195 billion yuan by July 17, 2025, positioning it among the top tier of domestic bond ETFs [3][7]. Group 3: Management and Performance - The Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short-term Financing Bond ETF achieved a cumulative increase of 11.99% since its inception, with an annualized return between 2% and 3%, and a maximum drawdown of no more than 0.04% over the past two years [5][6]. - In 2024, the trading volume of the Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short-term Financing Bond ETF reached 2.64 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 10.9 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Risk Management and Ecosystem Development - Hai Fu Tong Fund emphasizes independent credit risk management, ensuring that the credit rating team operates separately from the fixed income investment team, which enhances the effectiveness of credit risk management [8][9]. - The company actively engages in building a bond ETF ecosystem by collaborating with various institutions and promoting investor education to expand the investor base and enhance product awareness [9].

A-share Market - Beijing State-owned Assets Management Co. has become the controlling shareholder of Credit Suisse Securities with an 85.01% stake after acquiring shares from UBS Securities and Founder Securities, renaming it to Beijing Securities [2] - As of July 22, the financing balance in the A-share market reached 1.9196 trillion yuan, marking a new high since April, with an increase of 15.048 billion yuan from the previous trading day, continuing a trend of over 15 billion yuan increase for two consecutive days [2] - By July 22, 329 listed companies in the A-share market had announced plans for mid-term profit distribution for 2025 [2] - Insurance companies have made 21 stake acquisitions this year, surpassing the total number of acquisitions in 2021-2023 and setting a five-year high, with monthly acquisitions occurring consistently [2] Fund and Investment - The issuance of new funds has accelerated, with 15 funds announcing the effectiveness of their contracts on July 24, and several funds shortening their fundraising periods to 3 to 5 days [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan MLF operation on July 25 to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a one-year term [4] - The basic pension insurance fund is expected to inject stable long-term capital into the market as it expands its entrusted investment scale [4] - The number of bond ETFs has reached 39, with a total scale surpassing 507.695 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 191.82% from the beginning of the year [4] Foreign Investment - In the first half of the year, foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds increased by 10.1 billion USD, reversing the net selling trend of the past two years [5] Personal Pension Funds - The personal pension fund sector is gaining attention, with nearly 90% of funds established since inception showing positive returns, and total scale exceeding 12 billion yuan with 297 products available [5] Financial Services - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued guidelines to enhance financial services for rural reforms and promote comprehensive rural revitalization [6] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is conducting a nationwide quality safety inspection of charging treasures to ensure public safety [6] - The National Health Insurance Fund has seen a cumulative expenditure of 12.13 trillion yuan, with a stable insurance coverage rate of around 95% [6] Loan Statistics - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of various RMB loans from financial institutions reached 268.56 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [7] Retail and Wholesale Industry - The consumption upgrade policy has led to over 66 million consumers participating in the trade-in program for 12 categories of home appliances, with over 1.09 million units exchanged [7]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Bond ETFs on July 10, 2025, has significantly reshaped the bond ETF market landscape, with total assets nearing 100 billion yuan by July 21, 2025 [1][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond ETF market has undergone a supply-side transformation, expanding from 21 bond ETFs before 2025 to 39 by July 22, 2025, including 21 credit bond ETFs [1][10]. - The liquidity of bond ETFs is critical, with 7 of the newly launched products showing an average turnover rate exceeding 100% [8][9]. - The rapid inflow of funds into the Sci-Tech Bond ETFs raises concerns about potential price volatility due to trading congestion [9]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Products - As of July 22, 2025, there are 314 passive bond funds in the market, primarily focused on government and interbank certificates, indicating a gap in areas like comprehensive bonds, green bonds, and central enterprise themes for bond ETFs [11][12]. - The overseas bond ETF market features innovative categories such as high-yield bond ETFs and multi-asset ETFs, which are yet to be developed in the domestic market [11]. Group 3: Growth and Competition - The overall scale of passive products reached 5.79 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with bond ETFs experiencing a remarkable quarterly growth rate of 76.2% [3][16]. - The concentration of passive products has slightly increased, with the CR5 rising from 47.9% in Q1 2025 to 48.3% in Q2 2025, indicating a trend towards greater market concentration among leading fund managers [42].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of bond ETFs in China is significantly driven by Hai Fu Tong Fund's continuous innovation and deep engagement in the market, establishing itself as a leading player in the industry [1][2]. Market Growth - The first bond ETF, the National Debt ETF, was established in 2013 with an issuance scale of 5.4 billion yuan. By May 2024, the bond ETF market size surpassed 100 billion yuan, and by July 2025, it exceeded 400 billion yuan, reflecting a growing demand for stable, transparent, and efficient investment tools [2]. - As of July 17, 2025, the total scale of Hai Fu Tong Fund's bond ETFs surpassed 100 billion yuan, making it the first fund company to achieve this milestone [2]. Product Innovation - Hai Fu Tong Fund has pioneered various bond ETF products, including short-term financing bond ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, local government bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs, contributing to a diverse product lineup [2][11]. - The Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short-term Financing Bond ETF, established in August 2020, saw its scale grow from 50 million yuan to 53.195 billion yuan by July 17, 2025, positioning it among the top tier of domestic bond ETFs [4][10]. Team and Management - The management team of the bond ETFs, consisting of experienced professionals, focuses on liquidity, credit risk, net value growth, and tracking error, ensuring a positive investment experience for clients [9][12]. - The team has developed targeted service strategies based on customer needs, enhancing the overall trading experience and addressing liquidity concerns [6][7]. Risk Management - Hai Fu Tong Fund emphasizes independent credit risk management, ensuring that the credit rating team operates separately from the fixed income investment team, which enhances the effectiveness of risk management [12][13]. Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage its expertise in the bond ETF sector to continuously improve product operations and introduce more market-demand-driven products, contributing to the development of China's bond ETF market [14].

Macro Strategy - In Q2 2025, the overall scale of fixed income + funds showed net subscriptions, with significant growth in primary and secondary bond funds, while convertible bond fund scale decreased noticeably [1][9] - The allocation of major asset classes indicates a reduction in the proportion of rights-bearing positions, with an increase in bond and cash assets, while flexible allocation funds increased their stock and convertible bond positions [1][9] - The overall position of public funds in convertible bonds slightly decreased by 0.08 percentage points, while fixed income + funds decreased by 0.54 percentage points, with only convertible bond funds increasing by 0.77 percentage points [1][9] - The concentration of holdings in fixed income + funds decreased, with overweights in basic chemicals, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and transportation [1][9] - Fixed income + funds continued to overweight equity bonds, increasing allocations to balanced bonds and large-cap AAA-rated bonds [1][9] Fixed Income Engineering - Key factors influencing the growth rate of bond ETFs include yield, maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, market duration preference, and index tracking accuracy [2][10] - The correlation between bond ETF scale growth and yield is positive, indicating that higher yields generally lead to higher scale growth [10][12] - Maximum drawdown and Sharpe ratio also show significant correlations with bond ETF scale growth, suggesting that better risk management and performance lead to increased inflows [10][12] Company Analysis: 瑞鹄模具 (002997) - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.662 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.30%, and a net profit of 227 million yuan, up 40.33% [4][12] - The automotive manufacturing equipment business contributed significantly, with a backlog of orders amounting to 4.38 billion yuan, a 13.59% increase from the previous year [4][12] - The company plans to issue 880 million yuan in convertible bonds to expand its R&D and production capacity in lightweight components for new energy vehicles [4][12] Company Analysis: 中国汽研 (601965) - The company is a leading automotive technology research and service platform, with a projected revenue of 5.47 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [5][13] - The implementation of L2 national standards is expected to significantly expand the market for mandatory vehicle inspections, potentially increasing the market size by 50% [5][14] - The company has invested over 2.3 billion yuan in its headquarters and plans to enhance its testing capabilities to capture more market share in the third-party testing certification field [5][14] Company Analysis: 科达利 (002850) - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.8 to 2.1 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% to 20% [6][15] - The company is expanding its product line in robotics and has established a joint venture to produce harmonic reducers, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [6][15] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its operational advantages and the potential growth of its robotics business [6][15] Company Analysis: 博瑞医药 (688166) - The company is focusing on the development of oral peptide formulations, with its BGM0504 injection showing promising results in clinical trials [7][16] - The company has extended the lock-up period for its major shareholder's capital increase to 48 months, indicating confidence in its future prospects [7][16] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 260 million yuan, with a strong emphasis on the potential of its oral formulations to capture market share [7][16]