利率型 ETF 资金净流出 ——债券 ETF 跟踪 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525070002 Email：suem@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/固收事件点评报告 2025 年 12 月 08 日 报告摘要 上周中债新综合指数全周下跌 0.21%；短期纯债、中长期纯债基金分别持平、下跌 0.05%；中证 AAA 科创债指数、上证基准做市公司债指数分别下跌 0.10%、0.10%。 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 分析师：苏恩民 资金流向 相关报告 截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，债券型 ETF 近一周合计净流入 6.12 亿元，利率型、信用型、 可转债型 ETF 分别净流出 16.47 亿元、净流入 25.29 亿元、净流出 2.69 亿元。具体 拆分来看，信用型 ETF 中，短融、公司债、城投债分别净流出 1.21 亿元、净流入 8.56 亿元、持平，做市信用债净流出 15.21 亿元，科创债净流入 33.13 亿元。截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，利率型、信用型、可转债 ETF 年内累计净流入分别为 723.04 ...

Report Summary - The market has recently worried about the redemption of credit bond ETFs. Data shows that the overall scale of credit bond ETFs has not declined significantly, but there is structural differentiation among products [4]. - Interest - rate products: Ultra - long bond products have seen obvious capital outflows. As of November 28, 2025, interest - rate ETFs had a net outflow of 249 million yuan in the past week. The Pengyang ChinaBond - 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF's net value dropped by 0.71% and its market capitalization decreased by 2.614 billion yuan, while the Huaxia Benchmark Treasury Bond ETF's net value dropped by 0.26% but its market capitalization increased by 2.914 billion yuan [4]. - Credit - type products: The scale of market - making credit bond ETFs has decreased significantly, while the scale of science and technology innovation bond ETFs has continued to grow, but there is significant structural differentiation among products. As of November 28, 2025, credit - type ETFs had a net outflow of 535 million yuan in the past week. Specifically, short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 1.212 billion yuan, 111 million yuan, and a net outflow of 10 million yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds had a large - scale net outflow of 2.952 billion yuan, and science and technology innovation bonds had a net inflow of 1.104 billion yuan [4]. - Specific products: In credit bond ETFs, the market capitalization of Huaxia Credit Bond ETF, Credit Bond ETF GF, and Credit Bond ETF Dacheng decreased by 1.355 billion yuan, 785 million yuan, and 731 million yuan respectively in the past week. In science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the scale of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Southern, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF E Fund, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF China Merchants, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Industrial decreased by 1.767 billion yuan, 1.206 billion yuan, 729 million yuan, and 629 million yuan respectively. The scale of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Fullgoal and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Dacheng increased by 2.142 billion yuan and 2.417 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Overall bond - type ETFs: As of November 28, 2025, bond - type ETFs had a total net outflow of 2.303 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond - type ETFs had net outflows of 249 million yuan, 535 million yuan, and 1.519 billion yuan respectively. The cumulative net inflows of interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond ETFs for the year were 73.951 billion yuan, 444.828 billion yuan, and 23.619 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 542.398 billion yuan [4]. - Net value performance: All types of bond ETF products' net values have been adjusted. As of November 28, 2025, the Orient Fortune Treasury Bond ETF and the Guokai Bond ETF performed well, rising 0.02%. The 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF adjusted significantly, falling 0.71%. Convertible bond ETFs and Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond ETFs fell 0.28% and 0.77% respectively [4]. Credit Bond ETF and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Performance - As of November 28, 2025, the median net asset values per unit of credit bond ETFs and science and technology innovation bond ETFs were 1.0109 and 0.9991 respectively, falling 0.16% and 0.17% for the week. Among credit bond ETFs, Bosera Credit Bond ETF performed relatively well, falling 0.10%. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the Yongying Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF and the Invesco Great Wall Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF performed relatively well [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the median discount rates of credit bond ETFs and science and technology innovation bond ETFs were 24BP and 13BP respectively [2]. Credit - Type ETF Duration Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the holding durations of short - term financing ETFs, corporate bond ETFs, and urban investment bond ETFs were 0.37 years, 1.85 years, and 2.20 years respectively. Among market - making credit bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - Making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - Making Corporate Bond Index were 3.84 years and 2.87 years respectively. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, Shanghai AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, and Shenzhen AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index were 3.49 years, 3.56 years, and 3.24 years respectively [3][5]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" continues the previous positioning of the financial sector, emphasizing support for new productive forces and bottom-line thinking, with "technology finance" expected to be a key focus in the future [5][6][8] - The trend of technology finance policies includes a more precise allocation of financial resources towards "Artificial Intelligence+" and "new industrialization," guiding banks and insurance to establish comprehensive lifecycle service systems [5][7] - The impact of technology finance on the financial industry includes a higher proportion of technology-related services in brokerage firms, with a focus on leading firms with strong comprehensive service capabilities, while banks benefit from macroeconomic dividends from technological development [5][8] Summary by Sections Financial Industry Trends - The financial sector's support for technology has shifted from general principles to detailed execution, focusing on ecological construction and comprehensive lifecycle services [7] - The securities industry is seeing a broadening of financing channels through the full implementation of the registration system and enhanced support for the bond market [7] Policy Implications - The "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Technology Finance in the Banking and Insurance Sector" serves as a roadmap for the next five years, emphasizing the need for financial resources to focus on cutting-edge technologies and critical areas [6][7] - Policies such as the "Eight Articles of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board" and "New Six Articles for Mergers and Acquisitions" aim to deepen capital market reforms and provide a more accommodating financing environment for "hard technology" enterprises [7][8] Investment Opportunities - In the banking sector, there is a focus on large banks with strong resource endowments and regional banks with distinct technology attributes, benefiting from stable returns and valuation recovery [8] - For brokerage firms, those with high technology content and strong comprehensive service capabilities are favored, while insurance companies are noted for their stable defensive attributes and good asset-liability matching [8]