摘要周二(1月27日)亚欧盘中，地缘动荡与债务失控构成贵金属配置的核心逻辑。央行与ETF对黄金的需 求激增正持续推升金价。德银在最新展望中指出，全球地缘紧张常态化及政府债务扩张将长期支撑贵金 属，叠加美元走弱与结构性供需失衡，今年金价有望涨至6000美元/盎司。该行强调，任何约10%的回 调均是难得的加仓良机。 德银最新报告揭示，地缘动荡常态化与全球债务失控正重塑资产配置逻辑。供应链独立化推高成本，资 源民族主义加剧战略资源囤积，叠加IMF预警2029年全球政府债务占GDP比例或升至100%(不利情景达 123%)，美元持续贬值预期下，贵金属及实物资产成核心避险标的。 供需端呈现显著缺口：2022-2026年央行与ETF净增需求965吨，回收黄金334吨、矿产增量仅145吨，仅 能覆盖半数需求。值得注意的是，2025年四季度芬兰、巴西等传统发达经济体加入购金行列，央行购金 范围突破新兴市场边界;同期ETF持仓五年来首现净流入，规模仍处低位预示增持潜力。 德银强调，本轮黄金涨势源于美元资产冻结风险、非美资产配置需求及债务长期化等结构性驱动，较 1980年代抗通胀逻辑更具持续性。尽管市场已现拥挤多头持仓，短期或现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK Labour government's budget proposal aims to raise taxes to the highest level in history, addressing a fiscal gap due to lowered productivity forecasts and increased welfare spending, which has sparked concerns about the government's governance capabilities [1][2]. Taxation Measures - The budget includes an additional £26 billion in taxes, on top of £40 billion already raised since last year, bringing the total tax burden to 38% of GDP by the end of the parliamentary term [1]. - Key tax measures include: - Freezing the personal income tax threshold for an additional three years, expected to generate £12.7 billion by the 2030-31 fiscal year [4][6]. - Limiting salary sacrifice schemes, projected to yield nearly £5 billion by the 2029-30 fiscal year [6]. - Introducing a "mansion tax" on properties valued over £2 million starting April 2028, with annual fees ranging from £2,500 to £7,500 [6]. - Increasing dividend tax rates by 2 percentage points starting April 2026 [6]. Economic Impact - Despite a downshift in economic growth and household income forecasts, the market welcomed the government's commitment to fiscal discipline, leading to a drop in 10-year government bond yields [1][3]. - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) unexpectedly released its assessment report before the budget announcement, causing market volatility and raising questions about the government's handling of sensitive information [7][8]. Political Repercussions - The budget has faced significant political backlash, with opposition leaders criticizing the government for breaking promises and calling for resignations [8]. - Internal pressures have also mounted, as the Chancellor had to abandon plans to cut welfare spending and make concessions on winter fuel subsidies due to dissent from Labour MPs [8]. - The situation has created a precarious environment for the Chancellor, with speculation about potential successors if the political and economic pressures continue to escalate [8].

Core Viewpoint - France is facing a significant political and financial crisis due to Prime Minister François Bérou's proposed €44 billion austerity plan, which aims to reduce the budget deficit but has met with widespread opposition and market panic [1][2][3]. Financial Situation - The French government plans to reduce the budget deficit from approximately 5.8% in 2024 to 4.6% by 2026, with measures including the cancellation of two national holidays, which has sparked public outrage [2][4]. - France's public debt has exceeded €3.34 trillion, representing 113.9% of GDP, and the country has the third-highest debt level globally, trailing only the US and Japan [4][5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the austerity plan, the Paris CAC 40 index fell by about 1.7%, and the yield on 10-year French government bonds surged above 3.5%, nearing Italian levels [2][3]. - Concerns about the potential collapse of the government have led to fears of increased financing costs, with warnings that France could soon have higher costs than Italy if the situation deteriorates [3][4]. Economic Challenges - The French economy is projected to grow at around 1% this year, significantly below pre-pandemic levels, with consumer spending and investment hampered by limited purchasing power and uncertainty [5][6]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that France needs "additional significant budget efforts" to avoid losing control over its debt trajectory [5]. Broader Implications - The rising yields on French debt could have repercussions for the global bond market, as France is a key player in the Eurozone, and any instability could affect investor confidence in the euro [6][7]. - The situation raises questions about whether Paris could become the center of the next European financial crisis, especially given the lack of consensus in the political arena [6][7].