转自：期货日报 9月26日，国际白银价格强势上行，伦敦现货白银突破46美元／盎司，最高触及46.62美元／盎司，创下 自2010年以来的新高。在过去6个月内，现货白银价格累计涨幅超过30%，表现远超多数大宗商品，年 内涨幅更是达到59%，超过黄金价格43%的涨幅。 对白银价格的持续上涨，华鑫期货研究所负责人章孜海向记者表示，美联储于2025年9月重新启动降 息，释放25个基点流动性，使得以美元计价的白银吸引力显著增强。同时，光伏新增装机量居高不下， 白银作为铜、铅、锌矿的副产品，主矿产量增速较低，无法满足光伏、电子等新兴行业快速增长的需 求。 记者在采访中发现，白银当前需求强劲的核心动力依然来自工业，尤其是光伏发电、电网升级以及汽车 电子等领域。尽管在高成本的压力下，2025年光伏产业继续推进"减银化"，即降低每瓦电池的白银使用 量10%~12%，但由于整体新增装机容量保持增长，白银的工业需求总量仍然保持在较高的水平。此 外，今年白银的投资需求也明显回暖，白银ETF在上半年累计净流入超过9500万盎司，超过去年全年的 总和，总持仓约11.3亿盎司，再次接近历史峰值。与此同时，印度市场的投资性买盘和进口补库存需 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is under medium - term surplus pressure, with the trading logic switching between this pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, and the rebound space is increasingly limited. For strategies, a combination of previous high - level short positions and out - of - the - money call options is recommended [2]. - The precious metals market may remain strong before the Fed's September meeting, but caution is needed due to increased volatility after continuous rises [3]. - Various metal markets, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., have different trends based on factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and macro - economic data. For example, copper has short - term upward space but limited, while aluminum is testing the resistance level [4][5]. - In the chemical product markets, such as polycrystalline silicon, industrial silicon, etc., they are mostly in a state of shock, affected by factors like supply - demand, policy, and cost [11][12]. - The steel and iron ore markets are influenced by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and policy. For example, steel prices are in a weak shock, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [13][14]. - In the agricultural product markets, including soybeans, corn, etc., the market trends are affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and trade policies. For example, soybeans may continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and corn may be strong before the new grain harvest and then weak [35][39]. - The livestock and poultry markets, such as pigs and eggs, are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and production capacity. For example, the pig market is under supply pressure, and the egg market may see a change in production capacity in the fourth quarter [40][41]. - The financial markets, including stocks and bonds, are affected by factors such as macro - economic data, policy, and geopolitical situations. For example, the A - share market had a significant rise, and the bond market is in an adjustment phase [47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent's November contract down 1.9%. The IEA's September report shows an increase in supply surplus, and the pressure is expected to be concentrated in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The trading strategy combines high - level short positions and out - of - the - money call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: This week, FU warehouse receipts decreased by 6800 tons in total, and FU is relatively stronger due to geopolitical premiums [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. In China, the import cost supports the domestic market, and it is expected to run strongly against oil in the short - term, but the futures market is limited by high - volume warehouse receipts and will run in a shock [22]. - **Urea**: Urea daily production has decreased slightly, agricultural demand is in the off - season, and inventory is high. Exports are progressing, but the supply - demand is still loose, and the market will remain weak in the short - term [23]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market continues to fluctuate at a low level. Port inventories are increasing, and the near - term reality is weak. However, with the increase in the load of coastal MTO plants and pre - holiday downstream stocking, the market is expected to stabilize in a shock [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The US August CPI data met expectations, and the initial jobless claims reached a four - year high, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals may remain strong before the September meeting, but caution is needed due to increased volatility [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. The US CPI increase and labor market data boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the dollar weakened. Domestic copper consumption and the upward range are sensitive to economic indicators. There is short - term upward space but limited [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum was strongly volatile, approaching the 21,000 - yuan mark. Downstream开工率 has seasonally increased, and inventory is likely to be low this year. It will continue to test the 21,000 - yuan resistance [5]. - **Zinc**: The US PPI boosts the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation, and LME low inventory drives the external market to rebound, pulling up the domestic market. Domestic mine TC has decreased, and short - term prices are supported. However, the supply - demand situation of supply increase and demand weakness remains unchanged, and it will fluctuate slightly above 22,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: Refinery maintenance has increased, and inventory has decreased. However, consumption is weak, and the rebound is limited. The domestic market is stronger than the overseas market, and the inflow of overseas low - price goods restricts the rebound space. The cost of recycled lead provides support, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices rose, and the key support was held this week. Overseas, LME inventory is increasing, and the position concentration is high. In China, attention is paid to social inventory changes. A small number of low - level long positions can be held based on the MA60 line [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Silicon Manganese**: The iron water volume has recovered, and the output of silicon manganese has increased. The inventory has not increased, and the demand for futures and spot is good. The long - term manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to the continuation of relevant policies [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The iron water volume has recovered, and the supply of silicon iron has increased significantly. The demand is fair, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the continuation of relevant policies [18]. Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon slightly reduced positions and closed up. The market is in a re - balancing stage dominated by capital game. The spot price is stable, and the prices of batteries and components are rising. The market is under pressure and will run in a shock [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon reduced positions and closed up. There is an expectation of eliminating high - power - consumption and low - efficiency production capacity, but the actual effect remains to be seen. The supply is expected to increase by 5% in September, and the demand from downstream industries is expected to decline. It will run in a shock in the short - term [12]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a narrow - range shock. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a new high. The cost support is not obvious, and the price may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda is in an intraday shock. The inventory has decreased, the spot performance is differentiated, and it will run in a wide - range shock [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices, PX and PTA prices have weakened. PX short - process efficiency is good, but the output growth is limited. PTA is in a continuous de - stocking process, but the processing margin and basis are weak. The terminal demand is improving, and attention should be paid to the downstream stocking before the holiday and the polyester load - increasing rhythm [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean drought area has expanded, and the US soybean price has risen slightly. The domestic soybean meal futures are in a range shock, and the spot is slightly weak. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. The market will continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and a low - long strategy is recommended [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded. The market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report. The domestic situation is weak, but in the medium - long term, there is a supporting effect, and a low - long strategy can be considered [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The prices of North American oilseeds are under pressure, and the domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal demand is lackluster. The futures prices may rise slightly in a shock in the short - term, affected by the expectation of tight imports [37]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a narrow - range shock. The supply in Shandong is loose, and the price has decreased. The supply in Northeast China is strong, and the price has increased. Corn may continue to fluctuate strongly before the new grain harvest and then weaken [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weakly fluctuating, and the spot price has stabilized. There is a supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the policy of transportation is tightening. The current main contract price has fallen close to the initial level, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [40]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures are fluctuating, and the spot price is rising. It is in the seasonal rebound window. The industry has a high - inventory problem, and the production capacity needs to be deeply reduced. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, long positions can be considered, while attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds in the near - month contracts [41]. Others - **Shipping**: The main shipping companies have continuously lowered their quotes, and the market freight rate has declined. The near - month contract has turned into a premium structure, and the spot price is approaching the cost line. The 10 - contract is expected to continue to correct downward, and the market will be under pressure in the short - term [19]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares had a significant rise, and the index futures also rose. The market is in a critical geopolitical stage, and the market style temporarily maintains an overweight of the technology - growth sector, and the Hang Seng Technology Index can also be considered [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures continue to adjust. Affected by the policy expectation of the third - stage fee reform of public funds, the market redemption pressure has increased. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may compete at the 1.8% mark, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of the crude oil market is still switching between medium - term surplus pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, and the strategy is to combine previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed's meeting this month, but be cautious about chasing highs after continuous rises [3]. - Various metals, energy products, chemical products, and agricultural products have different market trends, mainly including trends such as price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and impacts of policies and events [2][3][4] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. The IEA's September report shows an increase in the supply - demand surplus, with pressure concentrated in Q4 and Q1 next year. The trading logic is between surplus pressure and geopolitical fluctuations, and the strategy is to combine short positions and call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU仓单 net decreased by 6800 tons in two trading days this week, and FU is stronger than LU due to geopolitical premium [20]. - **Asphalt**: Night - session oil prices dropped, and asphalt followed with a limited decline. Warehouse receipts decreased on Thursday. September's first - week shipments slowed, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Factory inventories increased while social inventories decreased, and overall inventory is flat. Long positions set at the beginning of the week were closed with profits [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. In early September, the arrival volume in Guangdong decreased, strengthening the support of import costs. Terminal product prices are rising, and the high -开工 rate pattern can be maintained. The spot has stronger support, but the futures price is limited by high - volume warehouse receipts and will run in a range [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: US CPI data in August met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims reached a 4 - year high, verifying weak employment. The market has fully priced in three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year. Precious metals may remain strong before the meeting this month, but be cautious about chasing highs [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Night - session copper prices continued to rise. US CPI increased, and the labor market showed signs of slowing, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut and weakening the dollar. The spot copper price in China was 80175 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium was 85 yuan. The inventory of the Steel Union increased by 900 tons to 149,000 tons. There is limited short - term upward space for Shanghai copper, and attention should be paid to the premium of call options with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan for the 2520 contract [4]. - **Aluminum**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly and reached the 21,000 - yuan mark. Downstream construction started to pick up seasonally, and the production of aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The inventory of aluminum ingots is likely to remain low this year, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.6 million tons on Tuesday. Short - term Shanghai aluminum will continue to test the 21,000 - yuan resistance [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It followed Shanghai aluminum and oscillated strongly. The Baotai spot price was stable at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increased enterprise costs. The cross - variety price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum has room to narrow further [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the industry inventory is rising. The warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to over 130,000 tons. Supply surplus is evident, and spot prices are dropping rapidly. The industry profit still has room to be compressed, and the support level is around 2830 yuan, the low in June [7]. - **Zinc**: The US PPI increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Coupled with low LME zinc inventory, the external market is in a rebound trend, driving the domestic market. The import ore price ratio is not good, and smelters mainly purchase domestic ore. The domestic ore TC decreased instead of increasing, which also supports the price in the short term. The CZSPT issued a guidance price range of 120 - 140 dollars/ton for imported zinc concentrate TC by the end of Q4. The growth space of imported ore TC this year is limited. Short - term Shanghai zinc is strongly supported at 22,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation of "supply increase and demand weakness" remains unchanged, and the market is observing the performance of the consumption peak season [8]. - **Lead**: The increase in refinery maintenance led to a decrease in SMM lead social inventory, and short - position holders reduced their positions at low levels. Consumption is still weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The domestic situation is stronger than the overseas situation, and the expectation of overseas low - price lead inflow restricts the rebound space of Shanghai lead. The supply of scrap batteries is in short supply, and the cost of recycled lead has strong support. The supply - demand is weak, and the market lacks contradictions, so it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Tin**: Night - session tin prices rose. This week, it held the key support level. Overseas, the LME tin inventory is increasing, but the concentration of positions is still high. In China, the social inventory is awaited. The current tin price is 271,100 yuan, with a premium of 850 yuan for the delivery month. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 daily line [10]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The main contract slightly reduced positions and closed up at 53,700 yuan/ton. The market trading enthusiasm declined marginally. The market is in a re - balancing stage dominated by capital games. The spot price is basically stable, and the prices of batteries and components are rising. The effectiveness of cost transfer needs to be verified. Some regions have completed energy - saving inspections of the polysilicon industry, and there is a lack of incremental policy guidance. The market is under significant upward pressure and will maintain a volatile pattern [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract reduced positions and closed up above 8700 yuan/ton. There is an increasing expectation of eliminating high - power - consumption and low - efficiency production capacity, but the actual effect remains to be seen. In September, the supply is expected to increase by 5%, and the production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease. The decline in downstream demand is limited according to current inventory changes. Short - term industrial silicon is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [12]. - **Other Chemicals** - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillated narrowly. Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and social inventory is at a new high. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the supply pressure is large. The cost support is not obvious. The futures price may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda oscillated during the day. The industry inventory decreased again, and the spot performance is differentiated. The price is relatively firm, but there is still supply pressure in the future, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - session prices were dragged down by the decline in oil prices. The short - process efficiency of PX is good, but there is a lack of new production capacity. The production growth space is limited. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of existing plants. PTA is continuously de - stocking, but the processing margin and basis are weakening. The price driver is still the raw material, and recent plant maintenance has increased. Terminal weaving orders are increasing, and demand is improving. Consider the possibility of the relative valuation of PX/PTA to oil rising before the National Day [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to be weak. The trial operation of new plants put pressure on the near - term contract, and the monthly spread declined. The domestic production decreased slightly, and the expected weekly arrival volume increased slightly. The port inventory is low, and the basis is still strong. Attention should be paid to the trial operation of the two new plants [30]. Building Materials - **Steel Products (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Night - session steel prices oscillated weakly. This week, the apparent demand and production of rebar continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered significantly, production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The rapid resumption of blast furnaces led to an increase in hot - metal production, but the low profit per ton restricted further resumption. The market still faces potential negative feedback pressure. The downstream real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing slowed down. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high. The market is pessimistic, and the futures price has insufficient upward momentum. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Night - session iron ore futures oscillated. The global shipment decreased, the domestic arrival volume decreased slightly, and the port inventory stabilized and increased. There is no significant pressure to accumulate inventory in the short term. Terminal demand has slightly recovered, and steel mills' profitability is at a low level. Hot - metal production returned to a high level this week, and there is still support for iron ore demand. Steel mills have a demand for pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the next two weeks. Domestic policy benefits are yet to be released, and the overseas Fed rate - cut expectation is rising. The market speculative sentiment still exists in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated strongly during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking is in progress, and hot - metal production has recovered to over 240. Coking profit is acceptable, and daily coking production decreased slightly. The overall coke inventory is rising, and the purchasing意愿 of traders has decreased. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream hot - metal production is expected to gradually recover. The price is greatly disturbed by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, and the volatility is large [15]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillated strongly during the day. Hot - metal production has recovered to over 240. The production of coking coal mines increased month - on - month. The spot auction transaction weakened slightly, and the transaction price followed the futures price down. The terminal inventory decreased slightly. The total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continued to increase slightly. The previous shutdowns are gradually resuming. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream hot - metal production is expected to gradually recover. The price is greatly disturbed by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, and the volatility is large [16]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: As of September 9, about 22% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 16% the previous week. US soybeans rose slightly yesterday. The domestic soybean meal futures are in a range - bound pattern, and the domestic soybean meal spot is slightly weak. Brazil's soybean premium is high, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. With Argentine soybean meal, the supply in Q4 is generally stable. However, if Sino - US trade negotiations are not resolved by the end of the year, there may be a shortage of domestic soybean supply in Q1 next year. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term, and the strategy is to go long at low levels. The USDA will release the September supply - demand report on September 13, and the market expects a reduction in soybean yield per unit [35]. - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded after a short - term correction. The US soybean oil futures also rebounded after trading on the bearish bio - fuel policy expectation. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report this week, expecting a reduction in US soybean yield per unit, US soybean exports, and Argentine soybean planting area. The domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices rebounded after reducing positions. The domestic situation is weak. In the medium term, palm oil is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long term, the biodiesel policies of Indonesia and the US support the industrial demand for vegetable oils, and the aging of palm trees is prominent. It is advisable to go long at low levels [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price of North American oilseeds is under pressure due to the expected tight import of oilseeds in China. The port price of Canadian rapeseed decreased by 5% this week, driving down the price of Australian rapeseed by 2%. Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade negotiations are the main factors affecting the supply - demand and price of rapeseed products. The domestic rapeseed - soybean oil price difference is at a slightly high level, which is not conducive to the short - term demand for rapeseed oil. Rapeseed meal demand is mainly for rigid needs. The futures price may rise slightly in the short - term oscillation [37]. - **Corn**: Night - session corn futures continued to oscillate narrowly. The spot supply in Shandong is abundant, and the purchase price decreased. The Northeast corn spot is strong, and the opening price of new - season corn is higher than last year. The结转 inventory at the northern port is the lowest in recent years. Traders have high expectations for the new - season corn. Cofco will conduct an auction of imported corn today, about 190,000 tons. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before the new - grain opening, and the Dalian corn futures may run weakly at the bottom after the enthusiasm for new - grain purchase fades [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The futures price oscillated weakly during the day, and the spot price stabilized. The price difference between fat and lean pigs is inverted in many provinces, which may accelerate the slaughter of large pigs. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year, and the fundamentals are weak. The tightening of transportation policies has increased the downward pressure on pig prices in traditional pig - exporting provinces. The agricultural and rural affairs department will hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation next Tuesday. The current main - contract futures price has dropped close to the level at the beginning of the "anti - involution", so it is advisable to wait and see [40]. - **Egg**: The egg futures oscillated and slightly reduced positions, and the spot price continued to rise. It is still in the seasonal rebound window of the spot market. The industry still has a high - inventory problem, and the capacity needs to be further reduced. The number of newly - hatched chickens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is estimated that the peak of this round of production capacity will be reached in Q4 this year. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, it is advisable to consider long positions, while for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds [41]. Others - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose significantly with heavy trading volume yesterday. The Shanghai Composite Index approached the previous high, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 5% to regain 3000 points. All the main contracts of stock - index futures closed up, with IC leading the rise by more than 3%. Only the IM contract is still slightly at a discount to the underlying index. Overnight, overseas stock markets rose collectively, and US bond yields declined at the long end, while the US dollar index closed down. The US CPI data in August basically met expectations, but the number of initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 2021. The market has fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Geopolitical situations are at a critical stage, and attention should be paid to the possible linkage with Sino - EU and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. It is advisable to increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector and also pay attention to the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures continued to adjust. Affected by the expected implementation of the third - stage fee reform of public funds, the market redemption pressure increased significantly, and the attractiveness of bond funds decreased. The bond market fluctuated greatly, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may compete at the 1.8% level. Technically, the yield fluctuation is converging, and the market is quiet. The structural differentiation of treasury bond futures continues, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48].

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