在宏观研究的世界里，很少有比国家破产更戏剧性的现象。一个国家在经济繁荣期间可以享受高速增长、资产升值、资本不断涌入，可一旦进入下行周期， 就可能陷入货币崩溃、银行倒闭、外储枯竭与政府违约的连锁反应。 美国著名的对冲基金经理，桥水基金的创始人雷·达里奥用超过一百年的历史样本，覆盖了40多个经历过重大债务与货币危机的国家，把这些国家的经历整 合成一个清晰的大周期结构【1】。当所有国家的时间序列叠加在一起后，一个有趣的发现浮现出来， 国家破产并非偶然，而是有很多规律可循 。 从 达里奥 的研究中可以看到，国家陷入危机往往不是源于某一项突发事件，而是不同的因素叠加，在10到20年间不断累积。当一个国家同时触发其中3个 或更多原因时，危机几乎不可避免。理解这些原因，是理解国家破产的核心。 第一个原因，是 债务长期累积到超过经济增长能力的程度 。 这个过程通常发生在繁荣时期，因为繁荣让所有参与者都相信未来会比现在更好，从而愿意借更多的钱。希腊是一个典型例子。自从2001年加入欧元区 后，希腊政府债券的收益率迅速下降，从8%降至与与德国几乎一致的水平（4%左右）。 注：2001年希腊加入欧元区后，其政府债券的收益率越来越低 ...

财长将经济好转归功于更严格的支出控制和更有效的税收征管，并指出取消电子税费并未削弱税 收，反而提高了税收合规性。加纳在2025年实现了财政复苏，基本财政收支平衡从2024年的3%赤字转 为2025年9月的1.6%盈余，超过了预期目标，表明财政纪律已经恢复。非石油税收占GDP的比重从7.8% 上升至8.7%，而国库券利率的下降则节省了约88亿塞地的利息支出。公共债务从2024年的7267亿塞地 （占GDP的61.8%）下降到2025年10月的6302亿塞地（占GDP的45%），这是加纳历史上最大的降幅之 一。该国债务累积率为负13.3%，反映出审慎的借贷、财政约束以及塞地走强，这些因素共同恢复了投 资者信心。国债收益率下降超过1600个基点，91天期国债收益率降至10.7%，为14年来最低。同时，加 政府清偿了203亿塞地的债券利息，提振了市场流动性和市场信心。 加财政方面的成绩已获得国际认可，2025年惠誉、穆迪和标普均调高了加纳的主权信用评级，理由 是加纳的政策可信度增强，并走上了一条实现债务稳定的可持续道路。 （原标题：加纳2026年政府预算着眼财政纪律和税收制度） 据加纳"商业与金融时报"11月14日报 ...

（原标题：IMF警告加纳面临财政管理危机） 据加纳"编年史"网11月13日报道，国际货币基金组织 (IMF)11月发布由IMF的法律部、财政事务 部、货币和资本市场部以及IMF加纳机构联合编写的《加纳政府管制评估》报告，称对加纳的财政治理 表示严重关切，警告其持续存在的预算可信度和不断增长的支出拖欠问题正在削弱加纳财政纪律，并正 在形成腐败滋生的土壤。 该报告强调，加纳薄弱的公共财政管理体系持续损害公共支出的信用、透明度和问责制度。该报告 指出，尽管加纳《公共财政管理法》和综合财务管理信息系统（GIFMIS）等改革措施改善了财政监 督，但预算可信度仍然低下，导致财政效率低下和治理风险。IMF认为加纳一直难以使其收入预测与实 际结果相符，尤其是在非税收入方面，其结果是支出拖欠不断累积，到2023年已达到国内生产总值的 6.3%。各部委、部门和机构经常性开设空头支票，导致项目停滞、承包商未收到款项，导致公共财政 债务负担日益加重。 该报告将持续不断的欠款累积与加纳财政体系内部的腐败漏洞联系起来。该报告援引世界银行的分 析解释说，有限的现金资源往往让官员们决定优先支付哪些发票，而这一过程很容易受到贿赂的影响。 IM ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market is experiencing a super bull market, with the London gold price rising from $2,624 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to a peak of $4,381 per ounce, representing a maximum increase of approximately 67% [1][12][16] - Key drivers of the gold bull market in 2025 include the ongoing interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, a weakening US dollar that fell below the critical support level of 100, and geopolitical uncertainties that have heightened market risk aversion [1][20][24] - For 2026, the outlook for gold remains positive due to expected continued central bank purchases, ongoing liquidity support from the end of the balance sheet reduction cycle, and high fiscal deficits under the "beautiful big plan" which may weaken fiscal discipline [1][34][41] Group 2: Copper Market - The copper market has shown strong performance, with LME copper prices increasing by 24% as of November 12, 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors such as US interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion, alongside supply disruptions [2][15] - The outlook for 2026 remains solid, with expectations of significant supply constraints from copper mines and robust demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI-related electricity needs [2][21][22] - The anticipated continuation of tariffs and the concentration of copper inventories in the US are expected to maintain price premiums for COMEX copper over LME copper [2][41] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases and valuation adjustments due to rigid supply constraints and steady demand growth, with domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity nearing its limit [3][44] - The aluminum sector has begun to catch up with the overall non-ferrous metal sector after a period of relative stagnation, with aluminum prices breaking previous highs [3][42] - Strong cash flow and dividend capabilities among listed companies in the aluminum sector highlight the attractiveness of this market, with potential for further valuation increases [3][44]

Core Insights - Mauritania's government has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the fifth economic program review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), as well as the fourth review under the Resilience and Sustainability Fund (RSF) [1] Group 1: Reform Achievements - Mauritania has made significant progress in fiscal discipline, governance capacity, and climate resilience, with all fiscal discipline targets achieved and improvements in monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks [2] - Following the IMF Executive Board's approval, Mauritania will receive 6.44 million Special Drawing Rights (approximately $8.7 million) and an additional 59.44 million Special Drawing Rights (approximately $80.6 million) under the RSF framework [2] Group 2: Economic Performance - Mauritania's economy remains strong, with a projected GDP growth rate of 6.3% in 2024 and stabilization at 4.2% in 2025, driven by the recovery in mining sectors such as gold and iron ore, as well as growth in agriculture and fisheries [3] - Inflation is expected to remain below 2% in 2025 due to prudent monetary policy, and international foreign exchange reserves have surpassed $1.46 billion, providing a substantial buffer against external risks [3] - The medium-term outlook indicates an average annual growth rate of around 5% for Mauritania's economy from 2026 to 2029 [3] Group 3: Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are a key focus of the discussions, with an emphasis on accelerating reforms in anti-corruption and governance, including the establishment of a national anti-corruption agency and the implementation of the Asset and Interest Declaration Law to enhance government transparency and rule of law [4] - Climate resilience initiatives will be introduced under the RSF framework, including an automatic fuel pricing mechanism and a "climate contribution" system to address climate change and free up fiscal space [4] - The central bank has implemented a national financial inclusion strategy to promote electronic payments and system interoperability, facilitating financing opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises and vulnerable groups [4] - The IMF representative praised Mauritania's progress in public finance, exchange rate flexibility, and governance systems, reaffirming the IMF's continued support for consolidating economic reform achievements [4]

【希腊计划2026年债券市场筹资80亿欧元优先偿债】11月11日消息，希腊计划在2026年从债券市场筹集 多达80亿欧元资金，且保持发行量有限，优先偿还债务。该筹资总额比2025年从投资者处筹集的75亿欧 元略有增加，与前几年保持一致，发行量较低可坚持减少借款绝对值的国家目标。希腊已扭转公共财政 状况，此前十年前债务危机几乎迫使其退出欧元区，如今凭借财政纪律、高税收征收和温和增长，成为 欧洲少数正预算平衡国家之一。政府持续实现足够初级盈余，覆盖服务成本并偿还债务，同时保持健康 现金储备。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和闭猎报 11.11 21:14:00 周二 希腊:2026年计划筹80亿欧元优先偿 信 【希腊计划2026年债券市场筹资80亿欧元优先偿 债】11月11日消息,希腊计划在2026年从债券市场 筹集多达80亿欧元资金,且保持发行量有限,优先 偿还债务。该筹资总额比2025年从投资者处筹集的 75亿欧元略有增加,与前几年保持一致,发行量较 低可坚持减少借款绝对值的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Sudanese government has approved the guidelines and overall objectives for the emergency budget for the fiscal year 2026, focusing on war needs, infrastructure repair, and creating a conducive environment for rebuilding homes [1] Group 1: Budget Objectives - The budget aims to prioritize meeting the needs arising from the war [1] - It includes goals for economic recovery and stability, fiscal discipline, and improved public financial management [1] - The budget emphasizes digital transformation and maximizing fiscal revenue while reducing the budget deficit [1] Group 2: Social and Economic Initiatives - Strengthening the social security system is a key focus of the budget [1] - The budget aims to create job opportunities for graduates and integrate the informal economy into the formal economic system [1] - It also includes provisions for financing small and medium-sized enterprises [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that well-governed small to medium economies like Seychelles, Mauritius, and Côte d'Ivoire are becoming the most attractive investment destinations in Africa, surpassing traditional economic powerhouses [1][2] - Seychelles and Mauritius lead the investment rankings due to strong fiscal management, low corruption rates, and stable post-pandemic recovery, with Mauritius expanding its financial services to East and Southern Africa [1] - Côte d'Ivoire's investment ranking has improved significantly due to economic diversification, improved governance, and a maturing capital market, with the government enhancing industrial value-added through domestic processing and export of cocoa and cashew [1] Group 2 - In North Africa, Morocco benefits from World Cup preparations and investments in transportation, desalination, and renewable energy, with a projected growth of 3.5% by 2026; Egypt is expected to grow by 4.5% in the 2025/26 fiscal year due to reforms and Gulf investment recovery [2] - South Africa faces structural issues such as power shortages and policy uncertainty, leading to a projected growth of only 1.8% by 2026; Kenya remains a pillar economy in East Africa, with expected growth of 5.1% driven by fiscal tightening and green infrastructure [2] - Investors are increasingly prioritizing transparency, governance, and fiscal discipline over market size, indicating a shift in Africa's investment landscape from aid-driven growth to investment-driven growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Shunichi Suzuki emphasizes the need for urgent measures to address inflation, aiming to improve the living conditions of households while maintaining fiscal discipline [1] Group 1 - The government plans to engage in cross-party discussions regarding economic proposals [1] - The objective is to increase tax revenue without raising taxes [1] - All fiscal tools will be considered to fund a comprehensive economic plan as long as fiscal trust remains intact [1]

Core Insights - The trading volume of USD/JPY options has dropped to a one-month low as investors await the Bank of Japan's policy decision, indicating limited market interest in this currency pair [2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently constrained by resistance at 153.27, with a need to break through 153.30 to gain upward momentum [2] - The recent political developments in Japan, particularly the election of Sanna Takashi as the new Prime Minister, have led to expectations of looser fiscal policies, impacting the yen's performance [2][3] Group 1 - The trading volume for USD/JPY options was at its lowest this month, reflecting a lack of interest from traders [2] - Market sentiment towards the yen is cautious, with expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting [3][4] - The yen has faced downward pressure due to expectations of more expansive economic policies under the new government, although safe-haven buying has limited its decline [2][3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is under pressure to assess the impact of higher tariffs on the economy while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation risks [3] - The market is closely watching the upcoming policy decision for clues about future actions, particularly in light of the new political landscape [3] - The Japanese government is focused on stimulating demand and maintaining a tight labor market to enhance long-term growth potential [2]