高市早苗在东证2025年最后一个交易日敲钟（12月30日） 2026年，高市早苗政府的积极财政政策给市场带来的风险成为焦点。高市强调"确保市场的 信任"，但警惕感正在增强。高市的首个难关是1月下旬召开的日银货币政策决定会议…… 日本银行（央行）上调政策利率之后，日元贬值趋势仍在持续。2026年，高市早苗政府的积 极财政政策给市场带来的风险成为焦点。高市强调"确保市场的信任"，但警惕感正在增强。 要获得市场信任有三大难关。 第一个难关是1月22~23日召开的日银货币政策决定会议。日银总裁植田和男显示出2026年 也将维持加息路线的态度。3、4月也将举行货币政策决定会议。 尽管在2025年12月的会议上将政策利率上调至0.75%，达到30年来的最高水平，但目前日 元汇率仍处在1美元兑155日元区间，呈现日元贬值态势。美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）在同 一时期决定降息，通常情况下本应呈现利息差缩小、转向日元升值的局面。 如果日银无法扭转日元贬值预期，可能出现汇率干预的利弊受到拷问的情况。 日本内阁官房长官木原稔在12月22日的记者招待会上就外汇市场表示"出现了单向的急剧波 动，令人担忧"。他表示日本政府"将对过度的波 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔与特朗普之间的关系一直紧张，主要原因是两人的经济政策不合。特朗普曾希望美联储能降息以刺激经济，但鲍威尔却一直坚持经济的长 期稳定，尤其是通胀和物价问题。经历了11个月的博弈后，美联储主席终于要更换，特朗普看到了插手的机会。然而，美国刚松了口气，却迎来了另一波挑 战——美国五大债主开始大规模抛售美债，尤其是中国，抛售了118亿美元的美国国债。这个变化对市场的影响不容小觑，尤其是美国的四大盟友不得不接 盘，救市行动随之展开。 根据美国财政部12月18日公布的数据，2025年10月，中国减持了118亿美元美债，使得中国的美债持仓量降到了2008年金融危机以来的最低水平。作为美国 美债的第二大海外持有者，中国的这一动作引发了市场的强烈反应。紧随其后，加拿大也加入了减持大军，仅在一个月内便抛售了587亿美元的美债，动作 迅速且果断。 此外，卢森堡和开曼群岛等金融中心也开始调整美债持仓比例，将资金转投到欧洲资产和其他低风险领域，这使得美债市场承受了更大的压 力。然而，市场并非没有接手者，尽管抛售潮汹涌而至，依然有四个国家挺身而出，成为接盘的主力。日本、英国、比利时和法国这四个国家不仅没有减 持，反而选择增 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本首相高市早苗周五表示，该国基本财政收支即将实现28年来的首次盈余，此番 表态显然意在缓解市场对其积极财政支出立场的担忧。 近年来，日本地方政府已连续实现基本财政盈余，据此推算，按照内阁府的统计口径，全国层面的基本 财政盈余目标大概率能够达成。不过，若高市内阁在新财年推出补充预算案，这一局面或将生变。 当前，日本国债收益率持续攀升(部分源于市场担忧这个负债累累国家的支出可能失控)，高市早苗一直 在努力向市场传递其对财政纪律的承诺。上周，基准10年期国债收益率攀升至2.1%，创下27年来新 高。 最新获批的预算凸显出高市早苗愿以财政支出撬动经济增长的政策导向。值得关注的是，尽管财政支出 规模有所扩大，但得益于创纪录的税收收入，政府新增发债需求得到有效抑制，2026财年国债发行规模 较本财年实现缩减。 并且，高市内阁正逐步淡化基本财政盈余在财政评估体系中的核心地位，转而将工作重心放在降低债务 与国内生产总值(GDP)比率上。在通胀周期中，这一目标的实现难度相对更低。 虽然日本政府并未放弃将基本财政盈余作为财政纪律的衡量标准，但日本财务大臣片山皋月指出，其正 在从多年跨度而非单一年度结果来审视 ...

日本首相高市早苗周四试图缓解市场对日本日益加剧的债务负担的担忧，表示政府下一财年的预算草案 将维持财政纪律。 她指出，尽管预算规模创历史新高，但新发政府债券将控制在29.6万亿日元，连续第二年维持在30万亿 日元以下。 高市早苗向执政党官员表示，这份适用于明年4月起财年的预算草案总额达122.3万亿日元（约合7854亿 美元），将于明年初提交议会审议。 她指出，尽管预算规模创历史新高，但新发政府债券将控制在29.6万亿日元，连续第二年维持在30万亿 日元以下。 高市早苗向执政党官员表示，这份适用于明年4月起财年的预算草案总额达122.3万亿日元（约合7854亿 美元），将于明年初提交议会审议。 债务依赖度将从2025财年原始预算的24.9%降至24.2，这是27年来首次降至30%以下。 高市早苗表示："我们相信这份预算草案在严守财政纪律与实现经济强劲增长之间取得了平衡，同时确 保了财政可持续性。" 责任编辑：王许宁 日本首相高市早苗周四试图缓解市场对日本日益加剧的债务负担的担忧，表示政府下一财年的预算草案 将维持财政纪律。 债务依赖度将从2025财年原始预算的24.9%降至24.2，这是27年来首次降至30% ...

（原标题：加纳收紧央行贷款业务） 疫情期间，加纳银行向政府运营提供了大量财政支持，此举后来导致其资产负债表出现负资产，并 使加纳被国际资本市场拒之门外。 除了贷款限制外，修订后的法律还对加纳银行董事会成员提出了更严格的资格标准，并加强了审计 和报告要求，以提高透明度和问责制。它还为政府和中央银行在中期通胀目标方面更紧密的协调提供了 一个框架，旨在锚定价格预期，同时保持操作自主性。该法案允许在总统批准的情况下对加纳银行进行 资本重组，使其能够在不损害其独立性的前提下满足法定资本要求。 这些变革是加纳根据其国际货币基金组织支持计划所作承诺的一部分，该计划要求加强财政纪律， 限制中央银行融资，并进行旨在恢复宏观经济稳定的改革。 修订后的法律禁止加纳央行直接在初级市场购买政府债券，并将对国家的贷款限制在严格定义的紧 急情况下，实际上结束了多年来在财政压力时期中央银行的例行支持。 根据修订后的法案，加纳银行的紧急贷款现在仅限于不可抗力事件，包括自然灾害、公共卫生紧急 事件以及总统正式宣布的其他危机。任何用于弥补短期财政收入缺口的临时性预付款都必须严格控制在 一定范围内，并须有明确的还款期限，且需经议会批准。该法律还禁止 ...

2025.12.18 本文字数：1953，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 潘寅茹 题图 |新华社 在外界屏息静待日本央行年前最后一次议息会议前，高市早苗政府又一次发出了不同声音。 17日，日本央行前副行长、高市早苗政府政策小组委员若田部昌澄（Masazumi Wakatabe）警告称，日 本央行应避免过早加息和过度收紧货币政策。 日本央行将召开年内最后一场货币政策会议（来源：新华社资料图） 分歧 若田部昌澄表示，日本当务之急是通过财政政策和增长战略提高中性利率。他主张，只有在中性利率因 政策驱动而上升后，日本央行加息才顺理成章。 分析认为，若田部昌澄上述表态的核心观点在于重新定义加息的先决条件。背后的逻辑则是"高市经济 学"政策框架的体现。他还表示，高市的经济主张虽然带有"安倍经济学"的成分，但重心更加着眼于强 化经济的供应面。 外界认为，这一表态不仅凸显了高市早苗政府更加强化所谓的"高市经济学"，同时又一次使得政府与央 行就加息问题的矛盾浮出水面。 18~19日，日本央行将召开年内最后一场货币政策会议。今年年初，日本央行将利率上调至 0.5%，创下 2007年2月以来最大的加息幅度。此后，日本央行一直 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is planning to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) in new bonds to finance a large-scale economic stimulus plan, which has raised concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal health and the balance between economic stimulus and fiscal responsibility [1][4][7]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - The comprehensive economic strategy finalized by the Japanese government amounts to approximately 21.3 trillion yen, with general account expenditures expected to be around 18.3 trillion yen, marking a significant increase of 27% compared to the previous year [2]. - The economic measures included in this plan represent the largest stimulus since the pandemic began, with the costs associated with the economic strategy estimated at 17.7 trillion yen [2]. Group 2: Debt Issuance and Market Reaction - The scale of the new bond issuance far exceeds the 6.7 trillion yen bonds issued by the previous administration, indicating a high reliance on debt financing [4]. - Despite a record tax revenue forecast of 80.7 trillion yen for the current fiscal year, the new debt issuance reflects ongoing concerns about Japan's long-term fiscal outlook, leading to continued selling pressure on the yen and Japanese government bonds [1][5]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Currency Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to approximately 1.814%, with long-term bond yields increasing due to market concerns over fiscal deterioration and expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [5][9]. - The yen has stabilized around 156 against the dollar, influenced by market expectations of a potential interest rate hike in December, which has mitigated some depreciation pressures [5][8]. Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - There are rising concerns that the Japanese government's ability to balance economic stimulus with fiscal discipline is under scrutiny, especially as the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 260% [7]. - If the government continues to rely on debt issuance without implementing tax reforms or controlling social security expenditures, the long-term fiscal situation may worsen, leading to higher interest payments that could crowd out other budgetary needs [7][9]. - The potential for renewed selling pressure on the yen and Japanese bonds exists if the Bank of Japan delays interest rate hikes, which could further erode market confidence in Japan's fiscal and monetary policies [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is planning to finance a new round of economic stimulus through a significant increase in government bond issuance, amounting to approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) to cover the spending gap from the recently announced economic measures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - The 2025 supplementary budget is expected to have general account expenditures of about 18.3 trillion yen, with 17.7 trillion yen allocated for the implementation of the economic measures, marking a substantial 27% increase from the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen [2]. - The total scale of the comprehensive economic measures is approximately 21.3 trillion yen, indicating a significant commitment to economic stimulus despite the associated debt concerns [1][2]. Group 2: Debt Issuance and Market Reaction - The planned bond issuance significantly exceeds the 6.7 trillion yen in bonds issued by the previous administration, reflecting Japan's heavy reliance on debt financing [2]. - The Japanese yen and long-term government bonds have been under pressure, with the yen trading around 156 against the dollar and long-term bond yields rising, indicating market concerns over Japan's fiscal health [3][4]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns and Future Outlook - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 260%, raising questions about the government's ability to balance economic stimulus with fiscal responsibility [5]. - Analysts express concerns that continued reliance on debt issuance could exacerbate fiscal deterioration, especially given the pressures from an aging population and the sustainability of tax revenue growth [5][6]. - The potential for rising interest rates, coupled with high leverage, could increase interest expenditure as a proportion of fiscal spending, further straining the budget [5][6]. Group 4: Global Implications - The ongoing sell-off of Japanese assets may have broader implications for global markets, particularly if investors liquidate overseas assets to cover yen-denominated loans, potentially impacting U.S. Treasuries and equities [7]. - The risk of a liquidity crunch in global markets could arise if yen carry trades are unwound, leading to capital outflows from emerging markets [7].

Group 1 - The Japanese government plans to expand short-term debt issuance to fund Prime Minister Kishi's economic stimulus plan, amid growing concerns over fiscal discipline [1][2] - A supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 117 billion USD) has been approved, with 11.7 trillion yen to be raised through new debt issuance [1][2] - The revised debt issuance plan includes an additional 300 billion yen for 2-year and 5-year bonds, and 6.3 trillion yen for short-term treasury bills [1][2] Group 2 - The supplementary budget aims to address rising living costs for households, a key promise made by Prime Minister Kishi during her campaign [2] - The budget will also provide funding for increased defense spending, raising the GDP share of defense expenditure to 2% [2] - The revised debt issuance plan reflects the government's consideration to minimize market impact, as demand for ultra-long-term bonds continues to decline [2][3] Group 3 - The total bond issuance for the current fiscal year is projected to be 40.3 trillion yen, a decrease of approximately 4.3% from the previous year's 42.1 trillion yen [3] - Prime Minister Kishi aims to convey a responsible signal regarding her expansionary fiscal policy by emphasizing the reduction in bond issuance [3] - Additional funding for the economic stimulus plan will come from an unexpected tax revenue of 2.9 trillion yen, surplus funds from the previous fiscal year of 2.7 trillion yen, and non-tax revenue of 1 trillion yen [3]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Labour government's budget proposal aims to raise taxes to the highest level in history, addressing a fiscal gap due to lowered productivity forecasts and increased welfare spending, which has sparked concerns about the government's governance capabilities [1][2]. Taxation Measures - The budget includes an additional £26 billion in taxes, on top of £40 billion already raised since last year, bringing the total tax burden to 38% of GDP by the end of the parliamentary term [1]. - Key tax measures include: - Freezing the personal income tax threshold for an additional three years, expected to generate £12.7 billion by the 2030-31 fiscal year [4][6]. - Limiting salary sacrifice schemes, projected to yield nearly £5 billion by the 2029-30 fiscal year [6]. - Introducing a "mansion tax" on properties valued over £2 million starting April 2028, with annual fees ranging from £2,500 to £7,500 [6]. - Increasing dividend tax rates by 2 percentage points starting April 2026 [6]. Economic Impact - Despite a downshift in economic growth and household income forecasts, the market welcomed the government's commitment to fiscal discipline, leading to a drop in 10-year government bond yields [1][3]. - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) unexpectedly released its assessment report before the budget announcement, causing market volatility and raising questions about the government's handling of sensitive information [7][8]. Political Repercussions - The budget has faced significant political backlash, with opposition leaders criticizing the government for breaking promises and calling for resignations [8]. - Internal pressures have also mounted, as the Chancellor had to abandon plans to cut welfare spending and make concessions on winter fuel subsidies due to dissent from Labour MPs [8]. - The situation has created a precarious environment for the Chancellor, with speculation about potential successors if the political and economic pressures continue to escalate [8].