新华财经巴黎2月21日电（记者崔可欣）法国政府20日正式公布2026年国家预算案，历时4个月的"马拉 松式"议会辩论至此落下帷幕。舆论认为，这意味着由总理勒科尔尼领导的政府有望迎来一段相对稳定 的执政期。 根据最终确定的目标，2026年法国公共财政赤字率将控制在5%左右，高于政府最初设定的4.7%，但低 于2025年的5.4%。削减公共支出仍是本次预算的主线，但国防开支将增加65亿欧元。税收方面，政府 强调保持现行税制框架总体稳定，但较最初方案增加的多项税收内容仍可能引发企业界不满。 预算案谈判期间，相关争议一度扰动法国债券市场，加剧投资者对财政前景的担忧。与此同时，法国公 共财政长期积累的高额赤字令削减支出、控制债务的压力持续上升。数据显示，截至2025年第三季度 末，法国公共债务总额达34822亿欧元，占国内生产总值的117.4%。 分析人士指出，在欧盟重新收紧财政纪律背景下，法国经济面临较大整固压力。根据欧盟相关规则，成 员国财政赤字率应控制在3%以内。当前法国财政赤字率和债务水平明显高于这一标准，未来数年财政 调整任务艰巨。 （文章来源：新华社） 这是自2024年法国总统马克龙宣布解散国民议会以来，各 ...

格隆汇2月19日｜路透企业调查显示，三分之二的日本公司对首相高市早苗领导下的政府财政纪律表示 担忧，这突显出尽管近期日本政府为安抚债券市场做出了努力，但商界的不安情绪依然存在。调查结果 显示，11%的企业对财政纪律"非常担忧"，55%的企业"有些担忧"，只有30%的企业表示担忧程度有 限。在对财政政策感到不安的企业中，64%提到了日元贬值推高原材料进口成本的风险，55%则担忧融 资成本上升。企业表示，如果与财政相关的风险成为现实，它们可能会重新评估资本支出计划、调整融 资策略或抑制工资增长。 ...

国外 道明证券将美联储下次降息时间点的预测从此前的3月推迟至6月，仍预计今年将累计降息75个基点，降 至终端利率3%。道明证券预计美联储将在6月、9月和12月各进行一次25个基点的降息。该机构首席美 国宏观策略师Oscar Munoz领衔的团队表示，预期中的政策宽松并非源于经济状况恶化，而是随着通胀 逐步回到目标水平，货币政策走向"正常化"的结果。就业前景改善应能让美联储把注意力转向通胀任 务。该机构同时预计，美债收益率今年将会继续下行，10年期收益率至年末将降至3.75%（此前预计为 3.5%）。 3. 野村：高市早苗政府有望加强财政纪律，日元走强 日元相对其他G10及亚洲货币走强。野村外汇研究分析师在报告中指出，日本首相高市早苗在财政政策 上可能变得更加"负责"，这将为外汇市场带来了一定缓解。分析师指出，有关如何为日本的消费税暂时 减免提供资金的讨论正在升温。分析师补充称，政府可能会利用"外汇基金特别账户"的盈余来支持此次 消费税减免。 4. Monex宏观研究负责人：美联储3月降息的可能性已消除 Monex的宏观研究负责人Nick Rees在报告中表示，对于美联储而言，1月美国就业数据表现强劲，"应当 ...

英国首相斯塔默的政治生涯正面临生死存亡时刻。因任命涉爱泼斯坦案的Peter Mandelson为驻美大使，斯塔默 的核心幕僚团队在24小时内接连辞职，内阁大臣私下要求其下台或威胁辞职，英国政坛陷入剧烈动荡。 这场政治危机迅速蔓延至金融市场。周一，英国富时100指数小幅下跌，英镑兑欧元一度下跌0.5%，创1月22日 以来最低水平，但随后收复部分失地，英国10年期国债收益率上升，接近去年11月以来高点。对冲基金正通过 期权市场大举押注英镑进一步走弱，欧元兑英镑期权交易量创2019年以来新高。 "他最高级顾问的辞职可能为斯塔默争取一些时间，但后座议员普遍不满的迹象，加上糟糕透顶的民 调结果，正在制造他的日子屈指可数的印象。" 对冲基金正通过期权市场加大看跌英镑的押注。法国兴业银行全球外汇期权交易主管Thomas Bureau表示，对冲 基金流入"欧元兑英镑的方向单一，大量买入看涨期权"。2月5日，欧元兑英镑期权交易量达到2019年以来最高 水平，看涨期权（押注英镑走弱）的交易量比看跌期权多50%。 未来一个月的隐含波动率处于去年12月以来最高水平。高盛预计英镑兑欧元将在12个月内下跌6%，野村证券预 计到4月底将下 ...

格隆汇2月7日｜土耳其副总统耶尔马兹周六表示，土耳其将继续维持紧缩货币政策并保持财政纪律，以 进一步降低通胀。官方数据显示，土耳其1月份消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨4.84%，高于预期，部 分原因是新年价格调整以及食品和非酒精饮料价格上涨。年通胀率降至30.65%。耶尔马兹表示，自 2024年5月以来通胀率下降45个百分点还不够，并补充说政府正在努力进一步降低消费者价格。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indian government has announced a federal budget for the fiscal year 2026-2027, with total expenditures reaching 53.5 trillion rupees (approximately 583 billion USD), marking a 7.7% increase from the previous fiscal year, aiming to balance economic growth and fiscal discipline [1] Group 1: Budget Allocation and Focus Areas - Infrastructure capital expenditure is set to increase by 9% to 12.2 trillion rupees (approximately 133 billion USD), focusing on roads, ports, railways, and urban development projects [1] - The government plans to establish an infrastructure risk guarantee fund to reduce construction risks for private developers and lenders, encouraging more private capital participation in infrastructure projects [1] - The budget emphasizes five key directions: investment-driven growth, support for manufacturing, enhancing economic self-reliance, increased investment in renewable energy, and strict fiscal discipline [2] Group 2: Fiscal Discipline and Debt Management - The fiscal deficit target for the new fiscal year is set at 4.3% of GDP, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The government's borrowing for the new fiscal year is projected to reach 17.2 trillion rupees (approximately 187 billion USD), a historical high, while the federal government debt-to-GDP ratio is set at 55.6%, down by 0.5 percentage points [1] - The finance minister has reiterated the commitment to a fiscal consolidation path, signaling fiscal prudence to the market [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - On the day the budget was announced, the Indian stock market indices Nifty50 and SENSEX fell by nearly 2% and 1.88%, respectively, marking the worst performance on a budget announcement day in nearly six years [3] - Market concerns revolve around the record borrowing plan's potential impact on liquidity and interest rates, with investors perceiving a lack of significant stimulus measures and structural reforms in the budget [3]

重大行情/事件点评 贵金属市场波动、政策变革与历史镜鉴 2026 年2 月5 日 研究员：赵嘉瑜 13686866941 zhaojiayu@cmschina.com.cn Z0016776 近期贵金属市场出现史诗级波动，白银价格暴涨暴跌的态势，与 1979-1980 年亨 特兄弟白银逼仓事件形成跨越时空的呼应。与此同时，2026 年美国政坛迎来重要 变动，特朗普提名凯文・沃什出任下一任美联储主席，其政策主张引发市场对美 国货币政策、财政纪律及全球资产定价的广泛热议。本报告整合相关宏观分析成 果，从历史复盘、当下市场特征、政策变革挑战及投资启示四大维度，系统剖析 贵金属市场波动逻辑与美国经济政策走向，为市场参与者提供参考。 风险提示：沃什未能成为美联储主席 微信公众号：招商期货研究所 敬请阅读末页的重要声明 期货研究 一、 历史复盘：1979-1980 年白银逼仓事件始末 （一） 时代背景：滞胀危机与货币体系变革 20 世纪 70 年代，美国深陷滞胀泥潭，中东二次石油危机爆发导致 CPI 飙升至 12.5%，黄金、白银成为核心避险资产。布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，大宗商品价格暴涨， 股市、债市持续低迷，形成商品资源 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Walsh, nominated by President Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, is expected to reverse the current monetary policy direction immediately upon taking office, contrasting sharply with Jerome Powell's tenure [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - Walsh opposes the Phillips Curve theory, believing that economic growth does not necessarily lead to inflation, and aims to return to a low-inflation, high-growth era reminiscent of the 1980s and 1990s [1]. - The immediate goal for Walsh is to maintain a strong dollar and price stability, as emphasized by former World Bank President David Malpass [2]. - Walsh's strategy includes reducing the Federal Reserve's bureaucratic staff by 30%, which he believes is essential for effective monetary policy management [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Resistance - There are concerns that Walsh may face significant resistance from within the Federal Reserve, particularly if he attempts to implement his restructuring plans in line with Trump's agenda [5]. - The Federal Reserve's current asset balance of $6.5 trillion is viewed as a major error, and Walsh is expected to expedite the sale of stagnant assets to help reduce inflation to the target level of 2% [7]. Group 3: Transparency and Accountability - Walsh advocates for a transparent interest rate pricing rule based on a basket of commodities, suggesting that changes in commodity prices should dictate adjustments in interest rates [8]. - The importance of fiscal discipline is highlighted, with a call for the Federal Reserve to set a good example by avoiding excessive spending, as seen in Powell's recent expenditures [7].

本文源自：金融界AI电报 城堡投资创始人格里芬周二表示，他认为在过去12个月里，美元在投资者心目中的吸引力有所下降。同 时他还表示，美国需要加强财政纪律，包括削减疫情期间肆意挥霍的开支。 ...

Group 1: Defense Budget - India's defense budget for the fiscal year 2026-2027 has been increased to 7.85 trillion rupees, marking a nearly 15% rise from the previous year's budget of 6.81 trillion rupees, reflecting the government's focus on military preparedness amid security threats from Pakistan and China [1][2] - The capital expenditure for defense has significantly increased to 2.31 trillion rupees, a 28% rise compared to last year, indicating the government's intent to procure advanced weapon systems and promote domestic defense manufacturing [1][2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Manufacturing - The Indian government plans to increase infrastructure spending, raising the capital expenditure target in this sector to 12.2 trillion rupees, which is approximately a 9% increase from the previous year, as part of efforts to address global uncertainties [2] - The government aims to expand manufacturing in seven strategic sectors, including semiconductors, data centers, textiles, and rare earths, in response to a slowdown in private investment and foreign capital outflows [2] - The establishment of rare earth corridors in mineral-rich states like Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu is intended to enhance the extraction, processing, research, and manufacturing of critical minerals, addressing India's reliance on China for rare earth imports, which account for over 45% of its total imports in this category [2]