新华财经雅加达9月16日电（记者冯钰林）近期印尼财政部长更迭引发金融市场动荡，新财长上任后接 连出台的注资银行、经济刺激计划等系列举措表明其积极财政政策主张，引发投资者对财政可持续性的 担忧。在印尼经济增长显露疲态之时，投资者仍在为财政纪律定价，多重因素考验印尼政府多目标治理 能力。 内阁更迭引发市场动荡新财长财政政策或更为积极 作为新兴市场风险溢价参考，印尼10年期政府债券经短暂回调后维持平稳下降走势。 约苏阿说，印尼外汇储备充足，政策长期稳定，其债券收益率下降的势头和潜在资金流入构成债市短期 优势，但投资者仍需对财政政策走向保持警惕。 印尼金融市场近期经历了一波震荡行情。以严格财政纪律著称的印尼原财政部长英卓华8日被解职，直 接导致印尼股债汇"三杀"，9日印尼10年期国债收益率飙升5个基点至6.4%，三天内外资外流规模达 14.24万亿印尼盾（约合8.67亿美元），其中印尼央行证券化票据（SRBI）撤资达6.57万亿印尼盾，政府 债券撤资5.45万亿印尼盾，股市流出2.22万亿印尼盾，反应投资者对财政可持续性的深度担忧。 印尼经济改革中心研究员优素福·伦迪·马尼莱特表示，SRBI通常相对安全，很少出现此类 ...

【文/远瞳】 一、雅加达的分歧：市场与民生的撕裂 在印尼，财政政策的走向始终牵动着两类群体的神经：一端是紧盯汇率与股指的国际投资者、金融从业 者，另一端是关心燃油价格、粮食补贴的普通民众。这种分歧在本次财政部长人事变动中被推向极致 ——当"财政纪律"的践行者到"民生优先"的推动者的权力交接，本质上是印尼在"稳定"与"公平"之间做 出的艰难抉择。 正因如此，财政部长的人事调整，不仅仅是技术性的岗位更替，而是在打破一个脆弱平衡。穆利亚尼 的"守纪律"模式，让国际资本放心，却让不少基层觉得"活不下去"；新任财政部长普尔巴亚的"铁腕治 税"与"民生优先"，则是在尝试重构这一平衡。 某种意义上，这已不仅是印尼财政政策的选择，而是一场关乎国运的试验：印尼能否在不完全依赖西方 主导的财政规则下，探索出一条既能稳住大盘、又能让老百姓真正受益的自主发展之路？ 二、穆利亚尼的遗产：铁腕纪律与未解的民生困局 斯里·穆利亚尼在卸下财政部长职务，并与财政部的国家公务员告别后落下眼泪。视频截图 雅加达证券交易所的交易员们，对"财政铁娘子"穆利亚尼的名字并不陌生。在他们眼中，这个曾任职世 界银行的女性，是印尼经济的"定海神针"。2008年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent surges in overseas ultra-long bond yields are attributed to increasing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and a general relaxation of fiscal discipline among major developed economies during the summer earnings season. This shift in the marginal pricing power of long-term bonds is amplifying market reactions to uncertainty [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The combination of high interest rates and a weak dollar is expected to benefit risk assets like A-shares and globally priced commodities [2]. - The recent rise in bond yields is driven by two main factors: heightened concerns over political interference in the Federal Reserve and a general loosening of fiscal discipline in major developed economies, prompting investors to reassess fiscal responsibility [2][3]. - The traditional holders of long-term bonds, such as central banks and insurance companies, are systematically reducing their holdings, leading to a shift towards private investors who are more sensitive to price changes and demand higher risk premiums [2]. Group 2: Asset Class Analysis - Historical data indicates that the rare combination of a weak dollar and high U.S. bond yields tends to favor value/cyclical stocks and commodities [3]. - In the short term, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to stabilize between 3.95% and 4.35%, with the dollar index projected to range between 95 and 99 [3]. - Domestic bond markets are expected to maintain a degree of independence, with a supportive monetary policy stance still in place, and a potential easing of external constraints as the U.S. may enter a rate-cutting cycle [3]. Group 3: Financial Products and Duration Tracking - As of August 31, the scale of wealth management products has slightly decreased by 8.2 billion yuan, while the overall duration of public funds has increased by 0.01 to 2.38, indicating a slight recovery in market consensus expectations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled a potential interest rate hike if economic growth and prices align with the central bank's outlook, leading to a significant sell-off in Japanese stocks and bonds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy - Ueda emphasized that the Bank of Japan would consider raising interest rates if the economic and price conditions improve as projected [2][3]. - The central bank maintained its policy rate in July but raised its forecast for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fiscal year 2025 [3]. - The Deputy Governor, Masayoshi Amamiya, indicated that continuing to raise interest rates is an appropriate policy choice given the improving economic and price conditions [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Ueda's comments, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.88%, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropped by 1.1% [3]. - The Japanese government bond market experienced a severe sell-off, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high of 3.29% [1][4]. - The U.S. and U.K. also saw their long-term bond yields rise, with the U.S. 30-year yield surpassing 5% for the first time since July 18, and the U.K. 30-year yield reaching its highest level since May 1998 [1][6]. Group 3: Political Context and Investor Sentiment - The political instability surrounding Prime Minister Kishida's government, including resignations from key party officials, has raised concerns about increased government spending and potential fiscal discipline loosening [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market is weighing the possibility of either Kishida proposing generous spending plans or a new leader implementing expansionary fiscal policies, both of which could lead to a more accommodative fiscal environment [5]. - The upcoming auction of Japan's 30-year bonds is viewed as a critical test of investor confidence amid these developments [5][6].

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing expects bond yields to remain high in the coming months due to global government efforts to implement reforms and maintain fiscal discipline [1] - The 30-year bond yield in the UK surged to its highest level since 1998, while US bond yields approached the significant 5% mark [1] - Germany and the Netherlands saw their 30-year yields rise to 3.4% and 3.57% respectively, the highest since 2011, while France's 30-year yield reached 4.49%, the highest since 2009 [1] Group 2 - The turmoil in the global bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over inflation, debt issuance, and fiscal discipline, which have weakened confidence in government bonds [2] - Increased government spending in Germany and tax cuts for the wealthy in the US have heightened worries about the scale of government borrowing [2] - Political instability in France, the UK, and Japan has led investors to question the ability of these governments to address debt issues [2]

Core Viewpoint - The German capital market remains calm, with the DAX index having surged 30% over the past year, indicating market confidence in Merz's large-scale spending and potential reforms to activate long-term growth momentum [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Germany plans to increase core defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, alongside significant public investment [1] - The upcoming fiscal threshold in 2027 will be a critical test for Berlin to achieve rebalancing without violating fiscal discipline [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Investor confidence will be influenced by whether Berlin can maintain fiscal discipline while implementing necessary reforms [1]

Group 1 - Germany is deviating from its traditional fiscal discipline, with a projected budget gap increasing from €144 billion to €150 billion by 2029 due to unplanned expenditures [1] - The current debt trajectory is concerning, with net new debt expected to reach 3.2% of GDP by 2025, significantly exceeding traditional fiscal discipline standards [2] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP is currently at 63%, but could exceed 90% by the end of the decade if the government's €1 trillion debt plan is considered [3] Group 2 - The German welfare system is facing an unprecedented fiscal crisis, with a projected deficit of over €55 billion by 2025, driven by rising healthcare and pension costs [4] - Despite increasing tax revenues, the gap between government spending and actual tax income is widening, necessitating structural reforms to avoid a collapse [4] - The government is at a critical juncture, as fiscal crises often occur without warning, leading to a situation where it can no longer finance itself through capital markets [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Gold International with a target price of 91.4 HKD, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 68.45 HKD [6]. Core Views - China Gold International is positioned to benefit from the recovery in gold and copper prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics in the metals market [3][4]. - The company has a robust operational recovery plan, particularly for its major mines, which is expected to enhance production capacity significantly [2][44]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Gold International Resources Limited is the overseas flagship of China National Gold Group, focusing on the exploration, mining, and development of gold and copper resources [1][12]. - The company operates two major mines: the Changshanhao Gold Mine in Inner Mongolia and the Jiama Copper-Gold Mine in Tibet, which are critical to its production output [12]. Production and Resource Potential - The Changshanhao Mine is expected to contribute approximately 3.4 tons of gold in 2024, with a stable production outlook despite nearing the end of its operational life [2]. - The Jiama Mine has significant growth potential, with plans to increase production capacity by over 50% through a three-phase development strategy [2][44]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the weakening of the US dollar and increasing global demand for gold are key drivers for rising gold prices, with a projected increase of 27.08% in COMEX gold prices for 2024 [3]. - The copper market is expected to experience a tightening supply situation, which will likely push copper prices higher, benefiting the company's copper production [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 306 million, 362 million, and 504 million USD for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting significant growth [5]. - The financial recovery is attributed to the upward trend in gold and copper prices, alongside the resumption of operations at the Jiama Mine [19][20]. Investment Recommendation - Based on comparative analysis with industry peers, the report suggests a target market capitalization of 330 billion RMB for China Gold International, supporting the "Buy" rating [5].

Core Points - The European Union has proposed a new budget plan totaling €2 trillion (approximately $2.3 trillion) for the period of 2028-2034, significantly increasing from the current budget of €1.21 trillion, focusing on defense, economic competitiveness, and agricultural subsidy reforms [1][2] - Germany has expressed strong opposition to the budget proposal, stating that it is unacceptable to increase the EU budget while member states are tightening their own national budgets, indicating a challenging negotiation process ahead [1][3] - France is also cautious about increasing investments due to rising domestic fiscal deficits, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the ambitious budget proposal [1] Budget Allocation Highlights - The budget allocates €1.31 billion to defense and aerospace, five times the current level, reflecting the urgency for the EU to enhance its security capabilities [2] - A new European Competitiveness Fund totaling €451 billion is established to support the development of the European defense industry, technological innovation, and the transition to clean energy [2] - The proposal includes €100 billion in support for Ukraine to aid in its recovery and resilience, as well as its EU accession process [2] Agricultural Funding Adjustments - Traditional agricultural funding will be reduced, with farmers set to receive at least €302 billion in direct payments, down from the current €387 billion [2] - The budget also allocates €218 billion for the EU's least developed regions and €200 billion for global cooperation projects, demonstrating ongoing investment in regional development and international engagement [2] Budget Approval Challenges - The budget proposal is contentious, requiring a balance between agricultural needs and funding for underdeveloped member states, especially as the EU aims to strengthen its defense and competitiveness in response to economic threats [3] - A report indicated that the EU faces an annual investment gap of €800 billion, making the allocation of the new budget critical [3] - The approval process will be lengthy, involving the European Parliament and the European Council, with a final agreement needed by the end of 2027, but Germany's firm opposition suggests significant hurdles ahead [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for a balance between promoting economic growth and maintaining fiscal discipline [1]