43天的"停摆"过后，美财政部公布了TIC报告，海外投资者持有美债总额微降至9.25万亿美元。美国联 邦债务已经突破38万亿美元关口，但根据上面公布的数据来看，全球投资者对美债的需求依然强劲。 根基未动。 但在细节操作策略上各国有明显分化。作为美债的最大海外持有国日本，9月增持89亿美元，总规模达 到1.19万亿美元，这已是日本连续第九个月增持美债。 日本增持有两重考虑，一是，套利交易，日元兑美元持续走弱，跌至G10货币中表现最差，买入更高收 益率的美债，赚取汇差和息差；二是，对日债的不信任，即便是在日本央行的可能干预下。 日本持续买入美债的动作，既是日元疲软的原因也是结果，形成了一种自我强化的循环。 中国作为美债第三大海外债权国，9月微降5亿美元。 拉长时间看，自2011年持有规模达到逾1.3万亿美元的峰值以来，中国一直在稳步减持美债。同时，中 国央行已经连续第11个月增持黄金。其通过提升非美元资产、特别是实物资产的配置比例，降低对单一 货币和单一资产类别的过度依赖，以增强外储的任性。 答案在于主导市场的短期逻辑已经发生变化，美联储开启降息周期。 9月17日，美联储实施了2025年的首次降息，鲍威尔承认，货 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 17, which was seen as a victory for Trump after months of pressure [2][4] - Trump's expectation was for a larger cut of at least 50 basis points, as he had previously claimed that rates were at least 300 basis points too high [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance indicated that this rate cut was a "risk management" move and not a signal for extensive monetary easing, which contradicted Trump's desires [4][5] Group 2 - The voting results from the Federal Open Market Committee showed 11 members in favor of the 25 basis point cut, with only Trump's nominee voting against it, highlighting a lack of support for Trump's influence [5][7] - Market reactions post-announcement were mixed, with the Dow Jones rising slightly while the Nasdaq fell, indicating skepticism about the effectiveness of the rate cut [7][9] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with interest payments projected to consume a significant portion of the federal budget, raising concerns about long-term economic stability [9][14] Group 3 - The potential for a "debt spiral" is a concern, as increased borrowing to stimulate the economy could lead to higher interest payments, further straining the budget [12][14] - Inflation remains a persistent issue, with consumer prices rising due to tariffs, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to manage monetary policy effectively [12][14] - Projections indicate that by 2025, U.S. GDP growth may slow to 1.6%, with interest payments on the national debt reaching a historic high as a percentage of GDP [14][15]

Group 1 - The core concept of the article revolves around economic cycles, which explain the fluctuations in interest rates and economic stability over time [1][4][5] - The article discusses the long-term view of economic history, suggesting that while short-term trends may appear linear, a century-long perspective reveals cyclical patterns [2][3] Group 2 - The "debt spiral" concept is introduced, indicating that economic cycles typically span around 80 years, with significant impacts on individual savings and wealth distribution [4][5] - The article outlines the two phases of the grand debt cycle: the initial phase characterized by cautious monetary policy and credit growth, followed by a later phase where debt reaches unsustainable levels [6][7] Group 3 - During the credit expansion phase, low net debt levels and stable monetary policy lead to increased productivity and asset prices, creating a false sense of security in the market [10][12] - The article highlights the dangers of excessive credit and the resulting debt bubble, warning that when debt repayment burdens rise, it can lead to economic corrections [14][15] Group 4 - The credit contraction phase is marked by reduced investment and consumption, with governments often stepping in to support the economy through increased spending [15][16] - The article emphasizes the limitations of government borrowing and the potential consequences of central banks resorting to money printing, which can erode public confidence and lead to inflation [17][18] Group 5 - The threat of currency devaluation and inflation is discussed, noting that central banks often choose to print money to manage debt crises, which can undermine purchasing power [21][22] - The article uses Japan's experience as a cautionary tale, illustrating how prolonged economic stagnation and mismanagement of debt can lead to significant losses for the populace [23][24] Group 6 - Investment strategies during the deleveraging phase are recommended, suggesting that hard assets like gold and commodities tend to outperform cash and bonds [25][26] - The article advises against blind faith in high-rated bonds during extreme debt monetization, advocating for a shift towards hard assets to protect savings [26]