Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing global macro leverage ratio, primarily driven by government borrowing, and its implications for economic growth and stability [2][3][6]. Group 1: Global Debt Trends - Since the 2008 financial crisis, global debt has risen significantly, with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 350% today, up from around 320% before the pandemic [3]. - Government debt has increased at a faster rate than that of the private sector, with major economies surpassing post-World War II levels [3][6]. - The macro leverage ratio in developed countries is higher than in developing countries, indicating a trend where larger economies require more debt to grow [3][6]. Group 2: Government Borrowing Dynamics - Governments are more willing to increase leverage during economic downturns to stabilize the economy, contrasting with private sectors that typically reduce debt in such times [10]. - The U.S. government has seen its debt interest payments rise significantly, with projections indicating that interest payments will account for a substantial portion of federal revenue [46]. - Japan's government has maintained a high leverage ratio, but its economy has struggled with stagnation despite this [10][46]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Taxation - Tax reforms have led to a decline in corporate tax rates globally, with the average rate dropping from 46.8% in 1980 to 25.7% in 2023 [23]. - In the U.S., the tax burden has shifted, with corporate tax contributions decreasing while payroll taxes have increased, potentially exacerbating income inequality [25]. - China's government has implemented tax reductions to stimulate investment, resulting in a significant increase in government leverage [32]. Group 4: Social Spending and Aging Population - The U.S. faces rising mandatory spending due to an aging population, with social security and healthcare costs expected to continue increasing [34][36]. - China's fiscal support for social insurance has grown dramatically, with subsidies for social insurance funds increasing by 229% over ten years [37]. - The need for increased government spending to address pension shortfalls is becoming critical, with projections indicating a significant funding gap due to demographic changes [40]. Group 5: Recommendations for Fiscal Management - The article suggests enhancing the transparency of public debt and utilizing special bonds to manage hidden debts effectively [60]. - It emphasizes the importance of improving the efficiency of fiscal spending to stimulate economic growth and consumer demand [60]. - Recommendations include increasing investment in social services and infrastructure to support long-term economic stability and growth [61].

今年以来，黄金价格屡创新高，年内涨幅已突破50%。 近日，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷在观察者网视频播客节目"思路打开"中对这波黄金牛市做出了警 告。但另一方面，从长期角度，李迅雷仍看好黄金。 谈及本轮黄金暴涨的原因，李迅雷表示，他认为这背后没有特别大的主力在推动，但存在一些诱因。 "全球经济进入到一个债务驱动时代，发债发得多，就要求利率要低。利率低了，对于黄金就有利。发 债发得越多，那就意味着，你今后印钞会印得越来越多。再加上特朗普挑起贸易事端，全面加征关税， 俄乌战争继续，特朗普又没有平息俄乌战争的能力。诸多问题对黄金价格起到了推波助澜的作用。"李 迅雷说。 "这样循环往复，也就是水多了加米粉，米粉加多了又加水。这样一来，全球货币体量越来越大。黄金 和白银本身就具有货币属性，所以如果纸币越来越多，那黄金肯定涨，这个逻辑其实很简单。"李迅雷 说。 "思路打开"是一档聚焦财经与科技、国际与社会的深度对话节目，邀请行业专家、企业家、创业者、投 资人等，解码经济现象，解读热点新闻，解析科技认知。在硬核又有趣的畅聊中，让我们一起打开思 路，探索未来。欢迎关注我们在各平台的账号 "思路打开"/"思路打开MindStre ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the world has experienced a prolonged period of relative peace since the end of World War II, leading to significant population and economic growth, but also highlights the substantial costs associated with this growth, including rising inequality and increasing public debt [1] Economic Growth and Population - Since 1945, the global population has increased from 2.5 billion to 8.1 billion, indicating a substantial demographic expansion [1] - Economic growth has outpaced population growth, but this has come at a significant cost [1] Costs of Economic Growth - The article outlines several negative consequences of economic growth, including: - Widening wealth disparity - Environmental pollution - Intensified economic conflicts between nations - Domestic debt crises [1] Debt Dependency - Major global economies are increasingly reliant on debt for growth, with the rate of debt increase surpassing economic growth rates [1] - The macro leverage ratio is continuously rising, indicating a growing dependency on borrowing [1] Recommendations for Debt Management - The article suggests several measures to address the rising public debt: - Increase transparency regarding debt levels - Make hidden debts visible - Utilize larger-scale local special bonds to replace hidden debts - Encourage local governments to obtain long-term low-interest loans from policy banks and state-owned banks to replace hidden debts [1] - It also recommends that central banks implement significant interest rate cuts and modify laws to allow central banks to purchase government bonds, thereby increasing the proportion of government bonds in central bank assets [1]