Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a sideways consolidation phase, indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears, with an uncertain direction. A significant catalyst is needed to break this equilibrium [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 203.5 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [1]. - The overnight interbank funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.69% [1]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes showed slight fluctuations, with R001 at 1.44% and R007 at 1.92%, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The stock market experienced a rise followed by a pullback, while there was significant net subscription in bond funds, reflecting investor behavior amid changing market conditions [3]. - The bond market showed stability, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.6525% and slightly declining to around 1.65% [3]. - The upcoming release of the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumption program by the National Development and Reform Commission is expected to have limited incremental impact on the market [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Participant Behavior - The bond market is described as thriving, with participants actively engaging in trading, reflecting a competitive atmosphere among traders [4]. - There are humorous references to the competitive nature of traders as they prepare for the end of the quarter, indicating a lively market environment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF has shown significant growth in liquidity and scale, indicating strong investor interest and potential for capital gains as interest rates may decline further in the upcoming quarters [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 26, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) increased by 0.11%, with the latest price at 123.44 yuan [1]. - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 5.55% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 1.024 billion yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 18.415 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a year [1]. - The ETF's latest share count reached 150 million shares, also a new high in nearly a year [1]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - Over the past three days, the 30-year Treasury ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 320 million yuan, totaling 700 million yuan in net inflows [1]. - The average daily net inflow stands at 233 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the recent compression of interest rate spreads suggests that there may still be room for further declines in bond market rates in the third quarter [1]. - The ability to capitalize on potential rate declines for capital gains will be crucial for determining annual returns [1]. - The current compression of yield spreads in coupon-bearing assets indicates a need for the market to identify the next strategic rotation direction [1]. - From a medium to long-term asset pricing perspective, using loan rates as a benchmark is deemed more reasonable, with potential rate cuts in the third quarter likely to drive further declines in interest rates [1].

市场交流时， 99% 的人都会问：你对市场怎么看？ 最专业的回答是"不知道"。 然而，这会被 99% 的人嘲笑为"不专业"。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250318— 失忆底＆哭泣底（+央行大额净投放资金-资金面边际收敛=微下)】 资金面边际收敛，长债收益率微幅下行。 今天债市终于等到央妈大额净投放资金，获得一丝喘息之机。但从盘面看，债农们现在也不敢大喘气，生怕央妈一个不高兴，明天再来个大额净回笼资 金。这么看来，央妈已经成功给债市多头留下了心理阴影，不失为教科书式的投资者教育。 今日市场上流传着两则真假未知的消息：一是某债券投资经理因压力过大晕厥后失忆，二是某固收首席因持续看多在晨会上哭泣。史称"失忆底"、"哭泣 底"。做股的纷纷嘲笑做债的没见过世面，30BP的波动就失忆的话，做股的都重生好几世咯。 其实，我们万万不可嘲笑那些为亏损而反思的人们，这都是我们成长路上所必经的，没有经历过市场锤打是不可能真正敬畏市场，也不可能真正成熟的。 -------------------------- 【今日盘面】 央行公开市场开展2733亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有377亿元逆回购及1200亿元国库现金定存到期，合计 ...