我们在建仓时，就要考虑到离场的问题。不但要有撤退的计划，而且还要标明是战术性的短线交易，还战略性的长线配置。 -------------------------- ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20251229— 多空拔刀互砍，市场血雨腥风（-供给担忧-国债期货对冲资金平仓-沪指九连阳+资金面均衡偏松=大上】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率大幅上行。 央行公开市场开展4823亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有673亿元逆回购到期，净投放4150亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.24%附近，DR007因跨年小幅上至1.59%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 29) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | (12 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1 ...

周度报告-国债期货 机构行为趋稳，债市延续修复 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 28 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货温和修复 本周（12.22-12.28）国债期货温和修复。周一， LPR 利率并未 下调，市场预期落空，加之风险偏好明显上升，国债期货下 跌，曲线走陡。周二，股市全天窄幅震荡，市场预期明年超长 债供应压力有所缓和，债市大幅走强，但尾盘预期有所回落， 现券利率小幅上行。周三，盘中市场消息面较为平静，股市震 荡上涨，国债期货全天窄幅震荡。晚间北京进一步优化调整住 房限购政策，现券利率小幅下行。周四，市场消息面较为平 静，资金面均衡偏松，短端现券表现较强，早盘长端品种也一 度上涨，但随着股市拉升，国债期货转而下跌。周五，市场消 息面较为平静，股市虽有波动，但对债市影响不大，国债期货 全天震荡偏强。截至 12 月 28 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三 十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分别为 102.546、106.030、 108.280 和 112.850 元，分别较上周末变动+0.066、+0.105、 +0.200 和+0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment, with a focus on the performance of the stock and bond markets during the holiday season. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market continues to show strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a seven-day rally, indicating a "Christmas rally" effect among investors [4] - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, reflecting a positive sentiment in the currency market [3][4] - The bond market shows a slight increase in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8375% [3][4] Group 2: Liquidity and Interest Rates - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 188.8 billion yuan through reverse repos and MLF operations, contributing to a balanced liquidity environment [1] - The overnight and seven-day repo rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.26% and DR007 slightly rising to 1.48% due to year-end factors [1] - The weighted average rates for various repos indicate a slight decrease in transaction volumes, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.52% [2]

【笔记20251223— 没有人觉得自己是最后一棒（+传财政部考虑缩减超长债发行比例-股市微涨+资金面均衡偏松=小下】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展593亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1353亿元逆回购到期，净回笼760亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.27%附近，DR007在1.41%附近。 不要太纠结短期的波动，这会让自己迷失在信息的噪音和丛林之中。 ——笔记哥《交易》 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 23) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率支努 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | ( 亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.35 | 0 | | 1.90 | 0 | 77084. 35 | 795. 58 | | 88.76 | | R00 ...

【笔记20251219— 日债交易员，扛住！（+传LPR降息25BP-股市小幅上涨+资金面均衡偏松=中下】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展562亿元7天期与1000亿元14天期逆回购操作，今日有1205亿元逆回购到期，净投放357元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.27%附近，DR007在1.44%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 19) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 嚴高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | (亿 | 成交堂占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.35 | 0 | | 2.00 | 3 | 77283.04 | 44.57 | | 90. 34 | | R007 | 1.51 | -1 | | 1.80 | 0 | 6144.89 | - ...

跌了 - 有希望，所以，下跌中卖出做空的胆子因这种希望而变的很犹豫，买入做多时，更因为这种希望而胆子变大，这种每天有希望的感觉，会让你持仓 被套后不忍卖，空仓持币时特想买。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20251216— 大A：实实在在，没有水分了（-债基继续净赎回+股市单边下跌+资金面均衡偏松=微下】 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 16) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 黃高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | (亿 | 成义章占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.34 | 0 | | 1.90 | 2 | 75164.00 | 137.25 | | 90.26 | | R007 | 1.50 | | Vin | 1.85 | 10 | 6963. 59 | -483. 53 | | 8.36 | ...

如果说空间止损是已经证明你的操作是错误的；那么，时间止损就是一定的时间内你的逻辑"未被证明正确"，它不一定非要证明你错了，但在规定的时间 内没有证明你的入场逻辑或入场理由是对的，你就应该离场。 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展1309亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1223亿元逆回购到期，净投放86亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.27%附近，DR007在1.44%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 15) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | (12 | 成交通占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.35 | 0 | | 1.88 | 8 | 75026. 76 | 670. 01 | | 89.84 | | R007 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of predicting market movements and the emotional responses of investors to their predictions, highlighting the complexities of market dynamics and the impact of central bank actions on bond and stock markets [1]. Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a slight increase in intermediary fees, comparable to the impact of a stamp duty on the stock market when it falls below 3000 points [3]. - The central bank conducted a net purchase of government bonds amounting to 50 billion yuan in November, while the stock market saw a slight decline [5]. - The liquidity in the market remains balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 156.3 billion yuan, offset by 302.1 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan [3][5]. Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The yield on 10-year government bonds opened at 1.828% and fluctuated throughout the day, reaching a peak of 1.836% before slightly retreating after the central bank's announcement [5]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.36%, R007 at 1.49%, and R014 at 1.51%, indicating slight changes in the rates over the past month [4]. Investor Sentiment - Investors in the bond market expressed mixed feelings regarding the central bank's bond purchase announcement, with initial expectations of a larger purchase leading to a sense of relief when the actual figure was revealed [5]. - There is a growing concern among bond investors about the potential increase in intermediary fees for trading government bonds, which could further strain their profitability given the current low interest rates [5].

Market Overview - The stock market has shown strong performance, reaching new highs for the year, with the index approaching 4000 points, which is seen as a significant psychological level [5][6] - The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States is anticipated to have a positive impact on market sentiment, contributing to the recent stock market rally [5][6] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a net injection of 32 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3] - A total of 900 billion yuan will be offered in a one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation scheduled for October 27, 2025, which is expected to maintain liquidity in the banking system [3][5] Interest Rates - The interbank funding rates have shown slight fluctuations, with the DR001 rate around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.41%, reflecting stable funding conditions [3] - The 10-year government bond yield has experienced minor increases, currently hovering around 1.845%, indicating market expectations of future rate adjustments [5][6] Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment is being tested by new regulations regarding public fund redemption fees, which are seen as a barometer for market emotions [6] - The recent adjustments in bond yields suggest a cautious approach from investors amid ongoing market developments [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of following market trends, emphasizing that while it is easy to suggest going with the flow, it is difficult in practice due to human nature and fear of buying at high prices [1]. Market Overview - The market is experiencing a slight decline, influenced by rumors regarding new fund redemption fee regulations, while interest rates are showing a minor upward trend [6]. - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 138.2 billion yuan, with a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan after 43.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [3]. Interest Rates and Bond Market - The interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.43% [4]. - The weighted rates for various repos are as follows: R001 at 1.37%, R007 at 1.47%, and R014 at 1.55%, with R007 seeing a 1 basis point increase [5]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.7575%, reflecting stable market sentiment [6]. Gold Market - Gold prices dropped over 5%, reaching around 4000 USD, marking the largest single-day decline since 2013, attributed to a cooling geopolitical situation and overcrowded long positions in gold [6]. - The article highlights the shift of gold from a safe-haven asset to a "risk asset" due to market dynamics [6]. Bond Yield Trends - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: 1Y at 1.4775%, 2Y at 1.5000%, and 10Y at 1.7000%, indicating a general upward trend in yields [8].