美国经济数据正传递矛盾信号。11月私营部门就业人数意外减少3.2万，为近两年半最大降幅；失业率从6月的4.1%升至4.4%，消费动力明显减弱。然而，通 胀却未如期回落——11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI高达3.3%，均远高于美联储2%的长期目标。更棘手的是，由于美国政府此前停摆，9月以来的关键经 济数据缺失，美联储此次降息近乎"蒙眼决策"。 当地时间12月11日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5?.75%。这是自9月以来的连续第三次降息，但市场并未迎来狂欢。相 反，美联储释放的"鹰派信号"让投资者意识到，宽松盛宴背后是更为复杂的博弈：通胀黏性、就业市场降温、政治压力与债务风险交织，让鲍威尔不得不 在"救经济"与"防通胀"之间走钢丝。 此次降息看似顺应市场预期，实则暗藏分歧。美联储内部投票结果出现罕见的三张反对票，一人主张降息50个基点，两人坚持维持利率不变。这种分歧程度 创下2019年9月以来新高，反映出美联储对下一步政策路径的激烈争论。鲍威尔在记者会上承认，当前通胀风险偏上行，而就业风险偏下行，政策调整空间 日益狭窄。 美联储的谨慎源于三重约束：通胀黏性、财政赤字与债市压 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that while funding remains active, credit demand is still weak, with August 2025 seeing new RMB loans of 0.59 trillion (compared to 0.9 trillion in August 2024) and new social financing of 2.57 trillion (down from 3.03 trillion in August 2024) [2][3] - The decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing is attributed to both a high base effect and weak credit demand from the real economy. Government bonds continue to support the growth rate, but the net financing scale of government bonds in August 2025 (1.33 trillion) is still lower than that in August 2024 (1.84 trillion) [3][4] - The report highlights that while the equity market remains active, the trend of residents investing their broad deposits continues. The new non-bank deposit scale in August increased significantly, while new household deposits fell from the low base in July [3][4] Group 2 - The report notes that M1 growth has increased, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing to the lowest level since 2022. However, the correlation between M1, M2, and economic activity has weakened, necessitating further observation of fundamental data [4][5] - Structural highlights in August's financial data are noted, but demand from the real economy remains weak. The report suggests that the current pressure in the bond market has partially eased, but further observation is needed regarding the release of this pressure [5][6] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor three dimensions for the bond market: the persistence of loose funding conditions, the net buying strength of long-term bonds by insurance funds, and the performance of credit spreads [5][6]