今天分享的是：2025混沌时刻 报告共计：20页 2025年9月债市：多空博弈激烈，市场处于"混沌时刻" 2025年9月中旬，国内债市迎来了多空力量激烈争夺定价权的关键阶段，整体呈现出"混沌时刻"的特征。以10年期国债为代表的 核心品种，利率运行箱体界限愈发清晰，当利率上行至1.80%时，多头买入力量显著增强；而当利率下行至1.75%时，空头势力 开始占据优势，多空双方围绕关键点位展开反复博弈。 当前市场交易主要聚焦两大核心逻辑：一是央行是否会重启买债操作，二是公募债基赎回费规则能否优化。从央行买债相关线 索来看，9月以来部分大型银行在中长久期利率债配置上出现明显动作，不仅净买入7-10年国债93亿元（此前已连续8个月净卖 出该品种），还同期净买入3-5年国债843亿元、7-10年政金债259亿元，二级买债偏好逐步向长久期品种倾斜。不过，类似的买 债行为在今年5-6月也曾出现，当时大行时隔多月重新在二级市场配置短债，市场一度猜想6月可能成为央行重启买债的起点， 事后却证实这只是银行内部止盈后再投资的需求，因此当前大行的操作能否与央行政策关联，仍缺乏明确结论。 公募债基赎回费优化问题同样备受关注。参考过往新规落 ...

Market Dynamics - The bond market is experiencing intense competition for pricing power, particularly with the 10-year government bond rate fluctuating between 1.75% and 1.80%[1] - Major banks have net purchased 9.3 billion CNY of 7-10 year government bonds since September, reversing an 8-month trend of net selling[2] - The overall bond fund size reached approximately 11.15 trillion CNY by mid-2025, with institutional investors holding about 8.99 trillion CNY[3] Central Bank Actions - There is uncertainty regarding whether the central bank will restart bond purchases, as recent buying behavior may not indicate a policy shift but rather internal bank strategies[2] - The central bank's recent operations, including a reform of the 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, aim to stabilize liquidity across quarters and holidays[4] Redemption Fees and Market Sentiment - The punitive redemption fee rates for bond funds may lead to capital outflows if not optimized, potentially increasing pressure on bond yields[3] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with bearish forces slightly dominating, necessitating a defensive strategy while awaiting clearer signals from the central bank[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[7]