Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a positive performance with a recent price increase and significant liquidity, indicating a potential recovery in the bond market after a period of adjustment [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 26, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.10%, with a latest price of 108.77 yuan [3]. - Over the past week, the ETF has accumulated a total increase of 0.40% [3]. - The ETF's trading volume was active, with a turnover of 13.66% and a transaction value of 2.505 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flows - The central bank conducted a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased liquidity injections [3]. - The ETF has seen a continuous net inflow of funds over the past six days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.504 billion yuan, totaling 2.65 billion yuan in net inflows [4]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 18.333 billion yuan, a new high in the past year [4]. Group 3: Historical Performance and Metrics - The ETF has achieved a 6.73% net value increase over the past year, ranking 12th out of 422 index bond funds [5]. - The maximum monthly return since inception was 5.35%, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [5]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the tracking error over the past three months is 0.053% [5].

Group 1 - The short-term logic of the bond market may have shifted from "fundamentals + liquidity" to "asset allocation" since July, with the bond market under pressure despite a relatively loose funding environment [6][10][28] - The 10-year government bond yield has shown an upward trend, primarily due to the thin safety cushion of fixed-income products and the cooling of fixed-income assets under the asset allocation effect [6][10][28] Group 2 - Key clues to the evolution of bond market logic include: 1) Reallocation of resident assets due to declining deposit rates since 2022, leading to a weakening of the bond market's profit-making effect [14][16] 2) An increase in residents' risk appetite, with equity assets potentially becoming the focus of asset reallocation [17][20] 3) Low odds and win rates for bond assets, as long-term bond yields have already priced in future rate cuts [18][21] Group 3 - The critical points for the rebalancing of stock and bond value include: 1) The relative comparison of dividend yields and bond yields [30] 2) Fund flows, with a potential shift in investor enthusiasm from bonds to stocks [30] 3) Changes in fundamentals, where unexpected pressures on the economy could lead to a resurgence in the bond market [30] Group 4 - The bond market strategy indicates that while risks are being released, a cautious judgment is maintained, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.7% being unattractive [28][31] - The bond market may experience volatility from August to October, with the yield expected to range between 1.65% and 1.80%, and the potential for a steepening yield curve [28][31]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) shows active trading and significant inflows, indicating a favorable market environment for long-term government bonds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF increased by 0.02%, with the latest price at 123.36 yuan [1]. - The ETF's trading volume reached 18.10 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 10.53%, reflecting active market participation [1]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 89.72 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 171.73 billion yuan, marking a one-month high [2]. - The ETF's shares increased to 1.39 million, also a one-month high [3]. - There was a net inflow of 10.75 billion yuan into the ETF [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - According to Minsheng Securities, the easing of the US-China tariff dispute may alter the pricing logic in the bond market, with short-term bonds expected to have some support while long-term bonds may face volatility [3]. - The central bank's stance on liquidity will be influenced by domestic and international economic conditions, impacting short-term bonds and certificates of deposit [3]. - The article suggests maintaining caution in the bond market due to potential headwinds, while also identifying trading opportunities when the 10-year Treasury yield approaches the 1.7%-1.8% range [3]. Group 4: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF is viewed as an effective tool for portfolio management, suitable for balancing duration and hedging equity positions [4]. - The ETF has a low trading threshold, allowing individual investors to participate with a minimum unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [4]. - High trading efficiency is noted, with instant execution and T+0 trading capabilities, supported by multiple market makers ensuring liquidity [4].