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债市阿尔法追踪:7 月:超长债显著下跌
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-07 14:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In July, all industry credit bonds declined, with an average net price change of -0.11%, and there was no obvious alpha. In the term dimension, there was negative alpha for Treasury bonds with a maturity of over 10 years. In the sub - dimension, there was no alpha for commercial bank sub - debt [1][2][10]. - In July, the bond market generally declined. For interest - rate bonds, the yields of almost all interest - rate bonds increased, with the average yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, and local government bonds rising by 5BP, 5BP, and 3BP respectively. For credit bonds, the yields of high - duration credit bond varieties increased significantly, with the average yield of 20 - year, implicitly rated AAA urban investment bonds rising by 14BP, the largest increase among credit bonds [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Each Variety Yield Panorama - Interest - rate bonds: In July, the yields of almost all interest - rate bonds increased. The average yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, and local government bonds rose by 5BP, 5BP, and 3BP respectively [11]. - Credit bonds: High - duration credit bond varieties had a significant increase in yields. The 20 - year, implicitly rated AAA urban investment bonds had an average yield increase of 14BP, the largest among credit bonds [11]. 2. Industry Alpha Tracking - Overall industry credit bonds: In July, all industry credit bonds declined, with an average net price change of -0.11%, and there was no obvious alpha. The transportation, urban investment, and construction industries had the largest net price declines, with monthly drops of 0.15%, 0.14%, and 0.14% respectively. Real estate bonds had the smallest decline, with a net price drop of 0.05% [1][17]. - Real estate bonds: In July, AA+ - rated real - estate bonds had obvious negative alpha; public enterprise real - estate bonds had obvious positive alpha. The average net price decline of AA+ real - estate bonds was -0.22%, significantly higher than other real - estate bond varieties. The average increase of public enterprise bonds was 0.35%, while other types of real - estate bonds had a net price decline. The top - rising bonds were those of Longhu and Greentown, with net price increases of about 1.7% and 1.2% respectively; the top - falling bond was that of Guangzhou Hejing, with a net price drop of 13.8% [20]. - Urban investment bonds: In July, all regional urban investment bonds declined, with an average change of -0.14%. Guangxi's urban investment bonds had the most significant decline, with a monthly drop of 0.26%, showing obvious negative alpha. In terms of ratings, AA - rated urban investment bonds had negative alpha, with an average net price drop of 0.22%, significantly more than other - rated urban investment bonds [26]. - Financial bonds: In July, private - enterprise financial bonds had a significant net price decline, with an average monthly drop of 0.08%, the largest decline and showing negative alpha. In terms of ratings, AA+ - rated financial bonds had an average net price decline of 0.01%, significantly lower than the 0.08% of AAA - rated and 0.07% of AA - rated bonds. The top - rising bonds were 24 Wuxi Xinchuang PPN001 and 23 Chanrong 09, with net price increases of 1.65% and 1.62% respectively; the top - falling bond was 24 Guoxin Holdings MTN001B, with a net price drop of 1.08% [28]. 3. Term Alpha Tracking - In July, Treasury bonds with a maturity of over 10 years had negative alpha. They declined by 0.95%, with a significantly larger decline than other term and interest - rate bond varieties. The reasons were that ultra - long Treasury bonds had a high duration leverage, and the increase in yield led to a more significant price decline. Also, the yield increase of Treasury bonds with a maturity of over 10 years was higher than that of other interest - rate bond varieties [2][36]. - Among long - term representative bonds, the 23 Sanxia K2, an ultra - long credit bond, had the largest decline in July, with a monthly change of -1.77% [40]. 4. Sub - Alpha Tracking - In July, there was no alpha for commercial bank sub - debt. Insurance company bonds and commercial bank sub - debt declined by 0.14% and 0.16% respectively, with similar declines and higher than the 0.06% decline of commercial bank bonds. In terms of yield changes, the yield increases of insurance company bonds and secondary capital bonds were generally higher than those of commercial bank ordinary bonds [2][42]. 5. July Public Bond Fund Ranking - In July, hybrid bond - type secondary funds led other types of public bond funds in average change. The average change of hybrid bond - type secondary funds was 0.86%, that of hybrid bond - type primary funds was 0.25%, that of short - term pure bond funds was 0.09%, and that of medium - and long - term pure bond funds was -0.03% [2]. - The top - five rising medium - and long - term pure bond funds in July were Chunhou Wenrong One - Year Fixed - Open, Fuguo Dingli Three - Month Fixed - Open Bond, etc. [56]. - The top - five rising short - term pure bond funds in July were Nanhua Ruiheng Medium - and Short - Term Bond A, Ping An 0 - 3 - Year Policy - Based Financial Bond A, etc. [57]. - The top - five rising hybrid bond - type primary funds in July were Guangda Medium - and High - Grade A, Tianhong Tianli E, etc. [58]. - The top - five rising hybrid bond - type secondary funds in July were Hongta Hongtu Shengshang One - Year A, Huashang Ruixin Regularly - Open, etc. [59].
债市阿尔法追踪:6月:债市普遍上涨,超长债涨势突出
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-13 05:10
Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In June, the bond market generally rose, with ultra-long bonds showing prominent gains. Without considering coupon income, from an industry perspective, bonds in the transportation industry had a relatively high net price increase, with a monthly increase of 0.12%, indicating a certain alpha. In terms of maturity, there was positive alpha in government bonds and local government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years in June. From a subordinated perspective, commercial bank subordinated bonds had obvious alpha in June [1][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview of Yields of Various Bond Types - In June, the bond market generally rose. For interest rate bonds, the yields of all interest rate bonds declined. The average yields of government bonds, policy bank bonds, and local government bonds declined by 7BP, 5BP, and 5BP respectively. For credit bonds, the yields of almost all credit bond types declined. Among them, the 20-year urban construction investment bonds with an implied rating of AA+ had the largest decline in yield, with an average decline of 17BP [1][11]. - As of June 30, the historical percentile levels of interest rate bond yields were relatively high, with most interest rate bond types having a three-year historical percentile level of over 6%. The 30-year policy bank bond had the highest three-year historical percentile level of 9.6%. For credit bonds, the historical percentile levels of most credit bond yields were low, below 3%. However, some credit bond types had relatively high historical percentile levels, such as the 7-year AA- second-tier capital bonds and 7-year AA securities company bonds, with historical percentiles of 15.2% and 14.7% respectively [14]. 2. Industry Alpha Tracking - In June, all industry credit bonds rose, with an average net price increase of 0.07%. Among them, bonds in the transportation industry had a relatively high net price increase, with a monthly increase of 0.12%, indicating a certain alpha. Urban construction investment bonds and real estate bonds had an average net price increase of 0.03%, which were relatively small increases [1][15]. - In the real estate bond sector, in June, AAA-rated and public enterprise real estate bonds had obvious positive alpha, while AA+-rated real estate bonds had negative alpha. Specifically, the average net price increase of AAA real estate bonds was 0.04%, significantly higher than other real estate bond types. Public enterprise bonds had an average increase of 0.12%, higher than real estate bonds of other enterprise types. AA+ real estate bonds had an average net price decline of 0.01%, the only declining real estate bond type. In terms of specific bonds, the bonds of Longfor Group had a net price increase of over 2%, while the bond H20 Hejing 6 had a net price decline of 3.79% [19]. - For urban construction investment bonds, in June, different types of urban construction investment bonds had different price movements. Regionally, urban construction investment bonds in Guangxi declined by 0.07% in a single month, the most significant decline, indicating obvious negative alpha. Urban construction investment bonds in Hebei and Xinjiang had relatively high increases, with an average increase of 0.14%. In terms of ratings, AA- urban construction investment bonds had negative alpha, with an average net price decline of 0.13%, significantly lower than other rated urban construction investment bonds [26]. - In the financial bond sector, in June, private enterprise financial bonds had a relatively significant net price decline, with an average monthly decline of 0.03%, the only declining financial bond type, indicating negative alpha. The bonds with relatively high increases in June were 24 Kunpeng Investment MTN003, 25 Kunpeng Investment MTN001B, and 23 CATIC Finance 08, with net price increases of 3.06%, 3.06%, and 2.36% respectively. The bonds with relatively high declines were 21 Shenzhen Jusheng 01 and 20 Shenzhen Jusheng 01, with net price declines of 7.2% and 10.59% respectively [28]. 3. Maturity Alpha Tracking - In June, government bonds and local government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years had positive alpha. Data showed that government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years rose by 1.1% and local government bonds rose by 0.93%, significantly higher than other interest rate bond types. The main reason was that ultra-long interest rate bonds had the advantage of duration leverage, and the decline in yields led to a more significant increase in prices [2][33]. - Among long-term representative bonds, the ultra-long credit bond 24 Chengtong Holdings MTN009B had the highest monthly increase of 3.63% [37]. 4. Subordinated Alpha Tracking - In June, commercial bank subordinated bonds had positive alpha. Data showed that commercial bank subordinated bonds had an average increase of 0.05%, higher than commercial bank ordinary bonds and subordinated bonds. The alpha of commercial bank subordinated bonds mainly came from the significant decline in the yields of 7-year and 10-year commercial bank second-tier capital bonds and perpetual bonds. Although the yields of 20-year and 30-year commercial bank ordinary bonds declined more significantly, due to the small scale of ultra-long commercial bank bonds, the decline in yields had little impact on the overall price movement [2][39]. 5. June Public Bond Fund Ranking - In June, hybrid bond funds of the second category had the highest average increase among public bond funds. The average increase of hybrid bond funds of the second category was 1.04%, followed by hybrid bond funds of the first category with an average increase of 0.57%, medium- and long-term pure bond funds with an average increase of 0.29%, and short-term pure bond funds with an average increase of 0.18% [2][40]. - The top five medium- and long-term pure bond funds in terms of increase in June were Huarun Yuanda Runxiang Three-Month Fixed-Term Open A, Pengyang Chunxi One-Year Fixed-Term Open, Huataibaoxing Zunyi Interest Rate Bond 6-Month Holding A, Pengyang Chunli Regularly Open A, and Minsheng Jiayin Hengyu [46]. - The top five short-term pure bond funds in terms of increase in June were Tianhong Yueyuebao 30-Day Holding A, Baoying Ansheng Medium- and Short-Term Bond A, Zheshang Huijin Shuangyuexin 60-Day Rolling Medium- and Short-Term Bond A, Great Wall Short-Term Bond A, and Zheshang Huijin Yuexiang 30-Day Rolling Holding A [47]. - The top five hybrid bond funds of the first category in terms of increase in June were Great Wall Active Income Enhancement A, Everbright Medium- and High-Grade A, Tianhong Tianli E, Golden Eagle Add Interest Medium- and Long-Term Credit Bond A, and Minsheng Jiayin Xinxiang A [48]. - The top five hybrid bond funds of the second category in terms of increase in June were Golden Eagle Yuanfeng C, Huabao Enhanced Income A, China Merchants Anrui Enterprising C, Caitong Income Enhancement C, and Minsheng Jiayin Enhanced Income A [49].
债市阿尔法追踪:5月:债市表现分化,利率债下跌信用债上涨
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-04 08:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - In May, the bond market showed differentiation. Interest rate bonds mostly had rising yields, while credit bonds generally had falling yields. There was no obvious α in the industry dimension of credit bonds, a significant negative α in 10 - year - plus treasury bonds, and a certain α in insurance company bonds. Among public bond funds, hybrid bond - type secondary funds had the leading average increase in May [1][2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Each Variety Yield Panorama - In May, the bond market performance was differentiated. For interest rate bonds, the yields of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds increased by an average of 4BP, and the yields of local government bonds decreased by an average of 1BP. For credit bonds, almost all credit bond varieties had falling yields, with the 7 - year, AA + and below implicit - rated commercial bank ordinary bonds having the largest yield decline of 19BP on average [11]. - As of May 31, the historical percentile levels of interest rate bond yields were relatively high, especially for short - term varieties. Most interest rate bond varieties had a three - year historical percentile level of over 8%, and the 1 - year treasury bond had the highest three - year historical percentile of 20%. For credit bonds, low - grade long - term financial bond varieties had relatively high historical percentile levels of yields, with the 7 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year AA - bank secondary capital bonds having the top three percentile levels of 18%, 17%, and 15% respectively [13]. 2. Industry Alpha Tracking - In the industry dimension, credit bonds in various industries generally rose in May, with an average net - price change of 0.14%. The increases in each industry were relatively balanced, and there was no obvious α. The mining and financial industries had relatively small increases of 0.09% and 0.07% respectively [17]. - In the real - estate bond sector, AAA - rated and public - enterprise real - estate bonds had obvious positive α in May. The average net - price increase of AAA real - estate bonds was 0.18%, significantly higher than other real - estate bond varieties. Public - enterprise bonds had an average increase of 1.38%, far higher than other enterprise - type real - estate bonds. The top - rising bond was Vanke Bond with a net - price increase of about 4%, while the top - falling bonds were 24 Lianfa MTN004 and 22 Longhu 03, with net - price decreases of 0.56% and 4.48% respectively [21]. - In the urban investment bond sector, all regional urban investment bonds had rising net prices in May, with an overall increase of 0.15%. Hebei and Tianjin had obvious positive α, with average increases of 0.23% and 0.22% respectively. Guangxi had the smallest increase of 0.06%. AA - urban investment bonds had negative α, with an average net - price decrease of 0.02% [28]. - In the financial bond sector, there was little difference in the net - price changes of financial bonds of various ratings and types in May, and no obvious α appeared. The top - rising bonds were 24 Yuandong IV, 24 Yuandong Leasing MTN005, and 25 Ganzhou Leasing 01, with net - price increases of 1.03%, 1.03%, and 0.84% respectively. The top - falling bonds were 21 Shenzhen Jushenghua 02 and 21 Shenzhen Jushenghua 01, with net - price decreases of 6.55% and 6.69% respectively [31]. 3. Term Alpha Tracking - In May, 10 - year - plus treasury bonds had a significant negative α. The change rate of 10 - year - plus treasury bonds in May was - 1.5%, significantly higher than other interest rate bond varieties. The reasons were that the yield increase of ultra - long - term interest rate bonds in May exceeded other term varieties, and the yield increase of ultra - long - term treasury bonds was significantly higher than that of local government bonds [37]. - Among long - term representative bonds, the ultra - long - term credit bond 23 Sanxia K2 led the increase in May, with a monthly increase of 0.49% [42]. 4. Sub - Alpha Tracking - In May, insurance company bonds had a certain α. The average increase of insurance company bonds in May was 0.1%, 0.03% higher than that of commercial bank ordinary bonds and sub - bonds. The α of insurance company bonds mainly came from the fact that the yield decline of insurance capital supplementary bonds within 7 years in May was greater than that of commercial bank bonds and sub - bonds, and the long - term bond scale of these three varieties was relatively small, so short - and medium - term interest rate fluctuations had a more significant impact on the overall price [44]. 5. May Public Bond Fund Ranking - In May, hybrid bond - type secondary funds led other types of public bond funds in average change rate. The average change rate of hybrid bond - type secondary funds was 0.41%, that of hybrid bond - type primary funds was 0.27%, that of short - term pure - bond funds was 0.18%, and that of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds was 0.12% [47].