Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, leading to a decline in the US dollar index from a six-month high, with expectations of the largest weekly drop since July [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - Market participants are anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, supported by dovish signals from key Fed officials [2]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its policy forecast, now expecting two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December and January, influenced by recent statements from Fed officials [2]. - The internal policy divergence within the Federal Reserve has reached its highest level in nearly eight years, with potential opposition to a December rate cut [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Trading Activity - Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, trading volumes in the forex market have decreased, leading to a lack of significant market movements [3]. - Analysts warn that the thin liquidity could lead to limited rebound potential for the dollar, despite the prevailing downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Future Dollar Strategy - Analysts suggest that "longing the dollar" may not be a core trading strategy for 2026, especially if dovish candidates for the Fed chair position are appointed [4]. - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett, who is seen as favoring rate cuts, could further weaken the dollar [4]. Group 4: Candidate Dynamics for Fed Chair - The nomination of the next Fed chair is expected to be announced by President Trump before Christmas, with Hassett being a leading candidate [5]. - The competition between Hassett and more conservative candidates like Waller will significantly influence future interest rate paths [5].

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the gold market remains bullish, but there are increasing downward risks as market sentiment is extremely optimistic, raising concerns among fund managers [1] - According to a recent Bank of America fund manager survey, 41% of respondents indicated that "long gold" is currently the most crowded trade for the third consecutive month, although this sentiment has declined from its peak in May [1] - 20% of fund managers view "shorting the dollar" as the third most crowded position in the global market [2] Group 2 - The survey indicates that the main contrarian trades currently are long dollar and short gold, with 13% of fund managers believing gold will be one of the best-performing assets over the next five years, while 54% believe international stocks will outperform during this period [3] - Investor sentiment has improved, with only 36% of participants expecting a recession in the U.S., down from 44% in April, and 66% anticipating a soft landing for the economy [3] - Despite recent speculative risks, the survey highlights some potential long-term positive trends for gold, with 59% of respondents expecting the U.S. government funding bill to fail, while 81% anticipate an increase in the government budget deficit [3] Group 3 - Analysts note that despite a significant weakening of the dollar index, many commodity analysts believe gold is not at risk from a potential bullish resurgence of the dollar, as the negative correlation between gold and the dollar has diminished [4] - Bank of America commodity analysts reiterated that gold could potentially reach $4,000 per ounce this year due to ongoing concerns about the growing government deficit [4] - Analysts suggest that while gold has been viewed as a crowded trade in recent months, historically, it has not consistently attracted investor attention, and there is still growth potential as gold-backed ETF holdings remain significantly below the historical highs set in 2020 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing downward pressure despite a generally bullish market sentiment, influenced by geopolitical tensions and monetary policy decisions [1][2] - On June 18, 2025 gold futures fell by $20.1 to close at $3,386.40 per ounce, marking a decline of 0.59% [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, citing reduced but still high economic uncertainty and inflation rates, which contributes to the cautious outlook for gold [1] Group 2 - A recent Bank of America fund manager survey revealed that 41% of respondents consider "long gold" to be the most crowded trade for the third consecutive month [2] - In contrast, 20% of respondents view "shorting the dollar" as the third most crowded position in the global market [2] - Silver futures also faced a decline, with July contracts dropping by $0.42 to $36.760 per ounce, a decrease of 1.13% [2]