Workflow
健康性
icon
Search documents
中金:白酒报表有望出清改善 大众食品整体需求低位企稳
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-06 08:24
Core Insights - The food and beverage industry has entered a new normal since the beginning of 2025, with a weak overall consumption environment and a continued trend towards high cost-performance, functionality, health, and emotional consumption [1][2] - The liquor industry is undergoing channel inventory destocking, with expectations for improved financial statements by 2026, as the upward turning point becomes clearer [3] - The demand for consumer goods is stabilizing at a low level, with a divergence in performance among sub-industries, while leading companies focus on improving efficiency [4] Industry Overview - The overall consumption environment in the food and beverage sector remains weak, with a focus on high quality and cost-effectiveness, functionality, health, and emotional value [2] - Leading companies are concentrating on stable operations and high-quality development, resulting in improved operational quality and shareholder returns [2] - The liquor industry continues to experience weak demand, compounded by new regulations, leading to significant adjustments on both supply and demand sides [2] Liquor Industry Insights - The liquor sector is expected to see a recovery in financial statements by mid-2026, with the first half of the year potentially marking a turning point [3] - The impact of policies is expected to diminish, and consumer scenarios are anticipated to gradually recover, supported by deeper consumption policies [3] - Companies with strong brand power, product innovation, channel control, and excellent supply chain efficiency are likely to achieve high-quality growth [2][3] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The overall demand for consumer goods is stabilizing at low levels, with a continuation of trends towards cost-performance, health, and emotional value [4] - Sub-industries such as snacks and soft drinks are expected to expand, while leading companies focus on improving operational quality [4] - The traditional consumer goods sector is projected to see a mild recovery in revenue and profit margin improvements following a bottoming out of fundamentals [4]
中金2026年展望 | 食品饮料:复苏深化,聚焦高质量增长(要点版)
中金点睛· 2025-11-05 23:52
Group 1: Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry has entered a new normal in 2023, with a weak overall consumption environment, emphasizing high quality-price ratios, functionality, health, and emotional consumption trends [3] - Leading companies are focusing on stable operations and high-quality development, improving shareholder returns and operational quality [3] - The liquor industry continues to experience weak demand, compounded by new regulations, leading to significant adjustments in supply and demand [4] Group 2: Liquor Industry Insights - The liquor sector is expected to see a turning point in the first half of 2026, with a focus on leading companies that show early recovery in fundamentals and long-term growth potential [4][7] - The impact of policies on business demand is gradually weakening, and consumer demand is expected to stabilize, leading to a potential recovery in liquor sales [7] - The strategic focus of liquor companies has shifted from inventory pressure to exploring new growth opportunities, particularly targeting younger consumers [8] Group 3: Consumer Goods Trends - Overall demand for mass-market food is stabilizing at low levels, with sub-sectors showing varied performance; trends of quality-price ratio, health, and emotional value consumption continue [4][10] - The beer industry is experiencing stable sales among leading domestic brands, with a focus on upgrading products and improving efficiency [11] - The snack food sector is seeing significant channel differentiation, with growth in membership stores and snack wholesale channels, while traditional channels face pressure [11] Group 4: Beverage Sector Developments - The soft drink industry is benefiting from travel, innovation, and investments in frozen products, maintaining steady growth despite increased competition [12] - The dairy industry is expected to see a mild recovery in 2026, driven by potential consumer stimulus policies and improved supply-demand balance [12] - The condiment sector is facing stable demand in 2025, with expectations for innovation among leading companies in 2026 [13]