Group 1 - CITIC Securities predicts that the establishment of an independent new energy storage capacity pricing mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration will stabilize revenue expectations for energy storage and stimulate investment enthusiasm among owners [1] - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements shifts the industry focus from cost competition to value creation, gradually revealing investment value [1] - CITIC Securities expects a rapid growth in domestic energy storage installations by 2026 and is optimistic about leading companies in the energy storage industry chain [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities notes that the risk appetite in the market continued to decline in January, with high dividend sectors performing better than in December, particularly in oil, coal, and steel [1] - Looking ahead to February, Huatai Securities suggests that as market volatility increases, the allocation value of high dividend sectors has marginally improved compared to the previous month, recommending a focus on stable high dividend stocks with defensive attributes and some potential high dividend varieties [1] Group 3 - CITIC Jin Investment indicates that the white liquor industry is approaching a turning point in its adjustment phase, coinciding with the "five bottoms" stage and the capital market's "three lows and one high" [2] - The upcoming Spring Festival season is seen as a potential catalyst for the white liquor sector, presenting a cyclical bottom allocation opportunity in the capital market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the national capacity pricing policy for energy storage is expected to stabilize revenue expectations and stimulate investment enthusiasm among owners, which is significant for investment decisions by state-owned enterprises and other clients [1][7]. Group 1: Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The new capacity pricing mechanism categorizes and improves the pricing for coal, natural gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage, ensuring reasonable pricing for regulatory capacity [2][9]. - The document mandates that the proportion of fixed cost recovery through capacity pricing for coal power plants be raised to no less than 50% by 2026, with potential for further increases based on local market conditions [10]. - For new energy storage, local governments can provide capacity pricing for independent energy storage stations that do not participate in mandatory storage, which will be included in local system operating costs [2][12]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Growth Projections - The capacity pricing is expected to provide high revenue certainty, significantly boosting domestic energy storage installations, with projections indicating a growth rate of 84% year-on-year for new energy storage installations in 2025, reaching 183 GWh [5][6]. - The establishment of the capacity pricing mechanism is anticipated to enhance the investment return rate for projects, increasing from 4.1% to 6.3% with a capacity price of 55 yuan/kW [5][4]. - The capacity pricing policy is seen as a critical support for the independent development of energy storage, transitioning the industry from cost competition to value creation [1][7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The introduction of a reliability capacity compensation mechanism will strengthen assessments and encourage owners to improve the quality of energy storage products, benefiting high-quality products and promoting industry consolidation [6][7]. - The policy changes are expected to lead to a rational return of investment in the pumped storage sector, with new projects relying more on actual market demand [11][13]. - The energy transition is supported by the development of regulatory power sources, which will help alleviate downward pressure on electricity prices and enhance the absorption of renewable energy [9][13].

hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 30 日 证券研究报告 电力设备 行业点评报告 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 电网投资持续位居高位 储能装机高景气 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——电力设备 2025 年业绩前瞻 投资要点： 风险提示：产品毛利率水平低于预期；项目跨期交付风险；竞争格局恶化风险 资料来源：Wind，华源证券研究所。注：除已出业绩预告的公司（华明装备）外，其余公司 2025 年归母净利润预测均来自华源证券研究所 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 3页 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 电网设备："十五五"国网投资有望再上台阶。按照 Wind 口径，2025 年前 11 个 月电网投资完成额 56 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The subsidy for independent new - type energy storage power stations in Inner Mongolia will decline in 2026, and the installed capacity of energy storage in October 2025 decreased significantly. Meanwhile, the production of Australian mines increased, which may affect the supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 84,620 yuan, the trading volume was 252 lots, and the open interest was 1,138 lots. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 86,540 yuan, the trading volume was 902,490 lots, and the open interest was 526,493 lots. The warehouse receipt volume was 28,099 lots [1] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 975 yuan, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,220 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,300 yuan, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 80,100 yuan [1] - **Downstream Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 36,360 yuan, and the price of ternary materials such as 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 152,325 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 82,339 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,475 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 8.23 million yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 8.01 million yuan/ton, both increasing by 1,550 yuan/ton [2] - In 2026, the compensation standard for the power discharge of independent new - type energy storage power stations in Inner Mongolia to the public power grid will be 0.28 yuan/kWh, a 20% decrease compared to 2025. In October 2025, the newly installed capacity of domestic new - type energy storage projects was 1.70GW/3.52GWh, with a year - on - year decrease of 35%/49% and a month - on - month decrease of 51%/66% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic energy storage installation in August showed a steady recovery, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 58% and 63% respectively, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] Group 1: Energy Storage and Lithium Industry - In the first eight months of the year, cumulative installations increased by 36% year-on-year [1] - The U.S. market experienced a 47% year-on-year increase in grid-connected capacity in August, although it saw a month-on-month decline of 28% due to adjustments in the ITC Act [1] - Lithium battery production in October is expected to grow by 3% to 9% month-on-month, with battery, anode, and electrolyte segments showing year-on-year growth rates exceeding 40% [1] - Prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide saw a monthly increase of 20%, while prices for battery cells and electrolytes also rose; however, iron-lithium material prices slightly decreased due to supply chain adjustments [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Technology - Solid-state battery technology is entering a critical window, with plans for mass production of composite current collectors starting in the second half of 2025 [1] - Accelerated layout of pilot lines for all-solid-state batteries is expected, with demonstration vehicle production anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 3: Industry Trends and ETF - The industry inventory cycle has entered a replenishment phase, with improvements in supply-demand dynamics in certain segments [1] - New technological breakthroughs are contributing to a diversified increase in the industry's prosperity [1] - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a specialized mechanical index (000812), focusing on high-quality listed companies in the mechanical equipment sector, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of related securities [1]