1月9日，机械ETF（516960）盘中涨超1.3%，储能电池行业转型支撑估值逻辑。 天风证券指出，锂行业经历3年调整后供需基本面加速改善，价格已从6万/吨以下回升至13万以 上，供给端粗放式开采模式逐步优化，需求侧动力电池构筑基本盘，储能因经济性成为新增长极。钴行 业受刚果金配额政策影响，2025年出口配额仅9.66万吨（同比减少56%），叠加印尼增量有限，中长期 供需或转向紧平衡，钴价中枢有望提升。稀土永磁领域，供给格局持续优化，《稀土管理条例》落地推 动行业整合，需求端新能源汽车占比提升至42%，节能电机、人形机器人等新应用场景进一步打开成长 空间。储能电池成为锂电需求新增长极，2025年国内出货量预计达580GWh（同比+75%），政策驱动 下经济性逐步显现。固态电池产业化进程加快，预计2027年实现小批量装车，新技术路线或提升锂单 耗。 机械ETF（516960）跟踪的是细分机械指数（000812），该指数从市场中选取涉及工程机械、工业 自动化设备等细分领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映机械设备行业相关上市公司证券的整体表 现。细分机械指数主要覆盖了机械设备行业的多个细分领域，成分股多为具有较强 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 天风证券指出，固态电池作为新型高性能电池技术，具有高能量密度、高安全性等优势，预计2025年中 国固态电池市场空间达29亿元，同比增长70%。固态电池生产设备有望成为最先受益环节，其中等静压 技术作为中段核心增量设备，可改善固-固界面致密化难题；干法工艺凭借成本比湿法低30%、能耗减 少35%等优势，有望重塑锂电产业格局，成为前道制片主流方向。超声设备在极耳焊接和检测环节需求 显著提升，ALD技术通过精准包覆改善界面稳定性，激光技术则广泛应用于极片处理与焊接。叠片工 艺因适配固态电解质特性，效率与精度持续优化，高压化成工艺通过超高压力降低界面阻抗，成为后段 关键工序。行业技术迭代推动设备升级，但需关注材料适配性、工艺窗口窄等产业化难点。 机械ETF（516960）跟踪的是细分机械指数（000812），该指数从市场中选取涉及工业自动化、专用设 备等领域的优质上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映机械设备行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。细分 机械指数成分股具有较强的创新能力和市场竞争力，能够较好地体现中国制造业升级转型的趋势。该指 数风格偏向成长型，适合关注高端制造和产业升级的投资者。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国泰海通指出，11月动力电池产销同环比保持增长，动力和其他电池合计产量同比增长49.2%，销量同 比增长52.2%，其中动力电池销量同比增长52.7%。1-11月累计产量同比增长51.1%，累计销量同比增长 54.7%。出口方面，11月动力和其他电池合计出口同比增长46.5%，1-11月累计出口同比增长44.2%。新 能源汽车市场表现强劲，11月产量同比增长20%，销量同比增长20.6%，渗透率达53.2%；1-11月累计销 量同比增长31.2%，累计渗透率47.5%。动力电池装车量快速增长，11月同比增长39.2%，其中磷酸铁锂 电池装车量占比80.5%，同比增长40.7%；1-11月累计装车量同比增长42.0%，磷酸铁锂电池占比 81.2%，同比增长56.7%。新能源汽车市场延续向好态势，动力电池产销量实现同环比增长，受年底翘 尾效应带动，新能源汽车销量有望进一步攀升。 机械ETF（516960）跟踪的是细分机械指数（000812），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及专用设备、通用 机械等领域的代表性上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映机械设备行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 细分机械指数 ...

华鑫证券指出，北美电力短缺问题正驱动电力设备行业迎来明确投资周期。英伟达CEO黄仁勋警示AI 算力爆发将引发能源危机，美国电力短缺已制约其AI发展，科技巨头或需自建核电等专属电源。数据 中心面临扩容与电力紧缺的核心矛盾，对电力可靠性、灵活性的要求趋近极限。在此背景下，高可靠性 发电设备（燃气、核电等）订单有望持续放量，国产发电解决方案已成功切入北美高端市场。同时，储 能设备需求将同步增强，电网配套设备（如变压器）增长确定性高。美国能源信息署预估未来五年新增 夏季净发电容量CAGR将提升至3.47%，具备对美供货能力的电力设备产业链公司预计显著受益。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 机械ETF（516960）跟踪的是细分机械指数（000812），该指数从市场中选取涉及工程机械、工业自动 化等领域的代 ...

Core Insights - The current dynamics in the power and energy storage battery industry are characterized by excessive competition, leading to widespread pressure on profit margins. However, through the governance of irrational competition and enhanced intellectual property protection, the competitive environment is expected to shift towards a technology and quality battle, which will help stabilize product prices and corporate profitability [1] - Under policy guidance, leading companies with technological, scale, and brand advantages are anticipated to gain more resources, resulting in improved industry concentration and supply-demand structure. The overseas market is projected to become a significant growth driver, with domestic companies likely to achieve premium pricing due to their technological advantages supported by the "orderly overseas expansion" policy [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will establish a capacity monitoring and early warning mechanism, strengthen quality supervision and inspection, and promote the construction of a long-term institutional framework to create an environment conducive to high-quality industrial development. Overall, the synergy between policy and market forces is expected to help the industry overcome bottlenecks and cultivate global competitiveness [1] Industry Specifics - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a specialized mechanical index (000812), which selects listed company securities involved in industrial automation and specialized equipment. This index primarily covers mechanical manufacturing enterprises with high growth potential and technological content, reflecting the overall performance of quality companies within the mechanical equipment industry. The index leans towards a growth style, making it suitable for investors focused on high-end manufacturing and industrial upgrading trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The North American electricity shortage is positively impacting the power equipment industry within the overseas supply chain, particularly in the generation, storage, and transmission sectors [1] Group 1: Power Generation and Storage - Demand in the energy storage sector continues to grow steadily [1] - The advancement of Solid State Transformer (SST) technology is gaining attention, with companies like Sifang Co., Ltd. being highlighted [1] Group 2: AI Data Centers and Cooling Technology - The power demand from AI Data Centers (AIDC) is increasing, benefiting power equipment companies [1] - The application of liquid cooling technology is also driving the development of companies such as Invec [1] Group 3: Mechanical ETF and Industry Index - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a segmented mechanical index (000812), which selects listed companies involved in industrial automation and engineering machinery [1] - The index primarily covers companies with high technical capabilities and market competitiveness, reflecting the overall performance of quality companies in the mechanical equipment industry [1] - The index style leans towards a balanced allocation of growth and value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant increase in lithium carbonate prices, with a rise of over 30% since October 9, has drawn market attention, particularly regarding the supply-demand dynamics in the energy storage sector and equipment [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The sodium battery industry chain has completed its cold start, indicating readiness for expansion as lithium carbonate and other lithium battery materials prices rise, alongside leading companies advancing sodium battery initiatives [1] - Sodium batteries, while having lower energy density compared to lithium batteries, offer advantages in cost-performance ratio, discharge performance, low-temperature performance, and more stable electrochemical properties, making them suitable for energy storage, two-wheeled vehicles, and A0-class passenger cars [1] Group 2: ETF and Index Overview - The Mechanical ETF (516960) has seen a decline of over 3%, tracking a specialized mechanical index (000812) that selects listed companies involved in industrial automation and engineering machinery, reflecting the overall performance of high-tech and competitive mechanical manufacturing firms [1] - The index aims for a balanced allocation between growth and value, focusing on quality companies within the mechanical equipment industry [1]

Group 1 - The energy storage industry is experiencing steady growth in demand, following a period of decline in the lithium battery sector, which has led to compressed profitability across various segments [1] - Currently, leading companies in the lithium battery supply chain are operating at high utilization rates, and demand is expected to continue growing steadily in the coming years, with an overall improvement in supply-demand dynamics anticipated by 2025 [1] - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a specialized mechanical index (000812) that selects listed companies in specialized equipment and general machinery sectors, reflecting the overall performance of high-quality enterprises in the mechanical equipment industry [1] Group 2 - The index components focus on companies with high business concentration and growth potential, emphasizing high-end manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing directions in industry allocation [1]

Group 1: Power Equipment Industry - The investment scale of the State Grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time by 2025, with over 420 billion yuan completed in fixed asset investment from January to September, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [1] - The construction of ultra-high voltage projects is accelerating, with significant projects such as the Longdong-Shandong and Hami-Chongqing lines being put into operation, and the Datong-Tianjin South project starting construction, enhancing cross-regional transmission capacity [1] - The focus of the new power system development is on the intelligent and digital transformation of distribution networks, with clear planning and high certainty in the progress of ultra-high voltage line construction [1] Group 2: Battery Industry - China has made several breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology, including a new fluorinated polyether electrolyte developed by Tsinghua University achieving an ultra-high energy density of 604 Wh/kg and passing rigorous safety tests [1] - The interface-integrated flexible materials designed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences can withstand 20,000 bending cycles [1] - Global solid-state battery shipments are expected to increase from 34 GWh in 2026 to 614 GWh by 2030, with the proportion of all-solid-state batteries rising from 10% in 2027 to 30% in 2030 [1] Group 3: Mechanical ETF - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a specialized mechanical index (000812), selecting listed companies involved in industrial automation, engineering machinery, and specialized equipment from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of companies that represent technological innovation and manufacturing upgrades within the mechanical equipment industry [1] - Component stocks typically possess strong market competitiveness and growth potential [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the rapid increase in domestic and international sales of new energy vehicles since Q2 2024 has led to a rebound in the installed capacity of power batteries, alongside an expansion in demand for energy storage cells [1] - Leading battery manufacturers are approaching full production capacity and are restarting capital expenditures, resulting in a significant increase in new orders for equipment suppliers [1] - The export control policy announced in October does not equate to a ban on exports, allowing leading equipment manufacturers to continue overseas operations through regulated applications, benefiting companies with strong compliance capabilities and global operational experience [1] Group 2 - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a specialized mechanical index (000812) that selects high-quality securities from the market in fields such as specialized and general equipment, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the mechanical equipment industry [1] - The components of the specialized mechanical index possess strong market competitiveness and growth potential, highlighting the trend of upgrading and transforming China's manufacturing industry, serving as an important indicator for observing the performance of the mechanical industry [1]