公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万) | 6,039 | 6,004 | 6,259 | 6,811 | | 同比增速(%) | -36.7% | -0.6% | 4.3% | 8.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,225 | 1,175 | 1,265 | 1,303 | | 同比增速(%) | -22.4% | -4.1% | 7.7% | 3.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.32 | 0.33 | | 市盈率(倍) | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 11 月 21 日收盘价 其他发电 2025 年 11 月 23 日 目标价：5.4 元 当前价：4.47 元 华创证券研究所 太阳能（000591）2025 年三季报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The profitability recovery of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to gradually materialize after 2026, amid declining overall demand growth and slow capacity exit [1] Price Stability and Competition - The current low price levels across the photovoltaic industry chain are causing a slow capacity exit, with intense price competition among manufacturers [1] - Since mid-2023, prices across the photovoltaic industry chain have shown signs of stabilization, but component prices have not seen sustained increases [1] - As of now, polysilicon prices are around 50,000 yuan/ton, silicon wafers at 1.3 yuan/piece, battery cells at 0.3 yuan/W, and modules at 0.7 yuan/W [1] Downstream Demand and Price Transmission - The stability of low prices is primarily due to the low acceptance of price increases by downstream developers [2] - Although polysilicon prices have increased by 50% since June, this price increase has mainly been transmitted only within the upstream "polysilicon-battery cell" segment [2] - The photovoltaic module market, which previously experienced rapid growth, is now facing slowing or even downward pressure, with Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasting a compound annual growth rate of -5% for new installations in China from 2025 to 2035 [2] Regulatory Impact and Market Dynamics - The construction of photovoltaic projects has slowed down, with approximately 28 GW of new photovoltaic installations added in Q3 2023 according to the National Energy Administration [3] - Developers are currently in a wait-and-see mode as new pricing mechanisms are being established across provinces [4] - New consumption scenarios, such as large-scale wind-solar integrated projects, are expected to support maintaining a relatively high level of annual new photovoltaic installations [4] Industry Capacity Management - The industry hopes to achieve rapid capacity exit through a "polysilicon storage" plan, but progress remains to be observed, with ongoing discussions about regulation, funding sources, and capacity distribution methods [4]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a strong rebound driven by national policies and improved industry fundamentals, with significant stock price increases among leading companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiejia Weichuang surged by 20%, while Shuangliang Energy also hit the daily limit, indicating a robust market sentiment [1] - The overall photovoltaic installed capacity in China exceeded 1.1 billion kilowatts by the end of June, marking a year-on-year growth of 54.1% [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 69 billion yuan for the third batch of old-for-new funds, with a total of 300 billion yuan planned for the year, emphasizing the importance of photovoltaic equipment updates [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy has reached a national strategic level, signaling a formal recovery in profitability across the photovoltaic industry chain [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The photovoltaic equipment manufacturing sector is expected to see a market scale breakthrough due to technological iterations, with N-type battery technologies like TOPCon and HJT achieving over 40% penetration [2] - The price recovery of polysilicon and auxiliary materials is anticipated to enhance profitability, with leading companies accelerating the integration of smaller capacities [2] - The old-for-new policy is expected to activate a trillion-yuan market, prompting logistics companies to enhance their renewable energy logistics networks [2] Group 4: Investment Trends - There is a surge in funds flowing into the photovoltaic sector, with institutional holdings in leading companies on the rise as investors seek exposure through index products [2]