产业链协同层面，行业自律稳价共识逐步强化，头部企业通过联合报价引导市场预期，避免价格无序竞 争。 展望后市，短期在减产落地、库存可控的背景下，硅片价格有望维持偏强走势。中长期来看，中国光伏 行业协会预测2026年国内新增光伏装机量保守估计213GW，乐观预期达271GW，叠加海外市场库存消 化后的反弹需求，将带动硅片需求实质性提升，行业有望逐步走出低谷。 据新浪财经，头部硅片企业联合大幅上调报价，其中183N硅片报价1.4元/片、210RN报价1.5元/片、 210N报价1.7元/片，平均涨幅达到12%。根据行业咨询机构InfoLink的数据，本周各型号硅片均价涨幅 在3.3%—9.8%之间。 此次头部硅片企业联合大幅涨价，标志着光伏产业链在经历深度调整后进入企稳回升通道，核心驱动源 于成本支撑、供需调节与产业链传导的三重共振。 成本端，硅片涨价主要是上游硅料涨幅较大所致，主流新单报价超6.5万元/吨，且硅料在硅片成本中占 比达 48%，此次提价是产业链成本压力向下传导及企业应对成本上涨、修复盈利的主动调整。 供需端，硅片企业通过主动减产、控货调节市场供给，头部企业开工负荷显著下降，库存累积速度放 缓，而下游 ...

Group 1 - Major silicon wafer companies have significantly raised prices, with 183N wafers priced at 1.4 yuan/piece, 210RN at 1.5 yuan/piece, and 210N at 1.7 yuan/piece, averaging a 12% increase [1] - The price increase is primarily driven by substantial rises in upstream silicon material costs, indicating a potential recovery in profitability across the industry [1] - The establishment of a new company focused on multi-crystalline silicon capacity integration and mergers, backed by leading silicon material firms, aims to promote technological upgrades and optimize production capacity and costs [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities highlights that the photovoltaic industry, as a key sector for "anti-involution," may see accelerated supply clearing due to policy support and technological advancements, with a potential industry turnaround by 2026 [2] - Guohai Securities notes that the newly formed silicon material storage platform is expected to enhance capital investment and establish reasonable pricing for multi-crystalline silicon, contributing to ongoing supply-side reforms and improved industry conditions [2] - The silicon material segment is anticipated to be the primary beneficiary of price increases, leading to early profitability improvements, while the battery and module sectors will gradually recover as price structures stabilize [2] Group 3 - Longi Green Energy, a leading company in the domestic photovoltaic industry, has raised silicon wafer prices in line with industry trends, leveraging its core advantages in high-efficiency battery technology [3] - JA Solar Technology operates as an integrated enterprise in the photovoltaic sector, focusing on the research, development, production, and sales of silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, as well as the development and operation of solar power plants [3]

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万) | 6,039 | 6,004 | 6,259 | 6,811 | | 同比增速(%) | -36.7% | -0.6% | 4.3% | 8.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,225 | 1,175 | 1,265 | 1,303 | | 同比增速(%) | -22.4% | -4.1% | 7.7% | 3.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.32 | 0.33 | | 市盈率(倍) | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 11 月 21 日收盘价 其他发电 2025 年 11 月 23 日 目标价：5.4 元 当前价：4.47 元 华创证券研究所 太阳能（000591）2025 年三季报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The profitability recovery of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to gradually materialize after 2026, amid declining overall demand growth and slow capacity exit [1] Price Stability and Competition - The current low price levels across the photovoltaic industry chain are causing a slow capacity exit, with intense price competition among manufacturers [1] - Since mid-2023, prices across the photovoltaic industry chain have shown signs of stabilization, but component prices have not seen sustained increases [1] - As of now, polysilicon prices are around 50,000 yuan/ton, silicon wafers at 1.3 yuan/piece, battery cells at 0.3 yuan/W, and modules at 0.7 yuan/W [1] Downstream Demand and Price Transmission - The stability of low prices is primarily due to the low acceptance of price increases by downstream developers [2] - Although polysilicon prices have increased by 50% since June, this price increase has mainly been transmitted only within the upstream "polysilicon-battery cell" segment [2] - The photovoltaic module market, which previously experienced rapid growth, is now facing slowing or even downward pressure, with Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasting a compound annual growth rate of -5% for new installations in China from 2025 to 2035 [2] Regulatory Impact and Market Dynamics - The construction of photovoltaic projects has slowed down, with approximately 28 GW of new photovoltaic installations added in Q3 2023 according to the National Energy Administration [3] - Developers are currently in a wait-and-see mode as new pricing mechanisms are being established across provinces [4] - New consumption scenarios, such as large-scale wind-solar integrated projects, are expected to support maintaining a relatively high level of annual new photovoltaic installations [4] Industry Capacity Management - The industry hopes to achieve rapid capacity exit through a "polysilicon storage" plan, but progress remains to be observed, with ongoing discussions about regulation, funding sources, and capacity distribution methods [4]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a strong rebound driven by national policies and improved industry fundamentals, with significant stock price increases among leading companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiejia Weichuang surged by 20%, while Shuangliang Energy also hit the daily limit, indicating a robust market sentiment [1] - The overall photovoltaic installed capacity in China exceeded 1.1 billion kilowatts by the end of June, marking a year-on-year growth of 54.1% [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 69 billion yuan for the third batch of old-for-new funds, with a total of 300 billion yuan planned for the year, emphasizing the importance of photovoltaic equipment updates [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy has reached a national strategic level, signaling a formal recovery in profitability across the photovoltaic industry chain [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The photovoltaic equipment manufacturing sector is expected to see a market scale breakthrough due to technological iterations, with N-type battery technologies like TOPCon and HJT achieving over 40% penetration [2] - The price recovery of polysilicon and auxiliary materials is anticipated to enhance profitability, with leading companies accelerating the integration of smaller capacities [2] - The old-for-new policy is expected to activate a trillion-yuan market, prompting logistics companies to enhance their renewable energy logistics networks [2] Group 4: Investment Trends - There is a surge in funds flowing into the photovoltaic sector, with institutional holdings in leading companies on the rise as investors seek exposure through index products [2]