上海有色网光伏首席分析师史真伟向经济观察报表示，目前多 晶硅价格难以继续上涨的主要原因是产业链传导存在一定压 力，下游企业对高价资源的接受能力有限。 作者： 潘俊田 封图：图虫创意 8月1日，国家发展改革委举行新闻发布会，据相关负责人介绍，中央财经委员会第六次会议对依 法依规治理企业低价无序竞争作出明确部署，国家发展改革委会同有关方面加快推进价格法修订。 选取"内卷式"竞争问题比较突出的行业领域，针对性开展成本调查，摸清生产经营情况，督促企业 自觉规范价格行为。 此前，硅料企业已经长期低于成本价进行销售。硅料头部企业均已披露现金成本和完全成本，其中 成本最低的协鑫科技截至今年一季度约为27070元/吨。 上海有色网光伏首席分析师史真伟向经济观察报表示，目前多晶硅价格难以继续上涨的主要原因是 产业链传导存在一定压力，下游企业对高价资源的接受能力有限。 史真伟说，在当前价格水平下，硅料企业大多能实现盈亏平衡，而此前则处于"卖一吨亏一吨"的状 态。 在史真伟看来，光伏产业链价格是否回暖主要取决于两个因素：一是多晶硅的供给侧结构性改革， 二是下游组件的价格传导效果。 近期，行业内传出不同版本的"硅料收储"传闻，均提及 ...

Core Viewpoint - After a month of continuous recovery, the price of silicon materials has stabilized, with current prices ranging from 45,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, following a previous increase from approximately 30,000 to 36,000 yuan per ton [1] Price Trends - The price of polysilicon futures surged to 54,705 yuan per ton on July 30 but has since dropped to around 50,000 yuan per ton, slightly above the spot price [1] - The increase in polysilicon prices is linked to regulatory efforts aimed at curbing low-price competition and guiding companies towards rational pricing [1][2] Industry Dynamics - Currently, most silicon material companies are achieving breakeven at the current price levels, contrasting with previous losses [3] - The price recovery in the photovoltaic industry depends on supply-side structural reforms in polysilicon and the price transmission effect to downstream components [3] Downstream Impact - The downstream component sector has struggled to raise prices in line with silicon material increases, with current component prices around 0.665 to 0.707 yuan per watt, reflecting only a minor increase since July [2][3] - Each watt of component requires approximately 2 grams of silicon material, meaning a 10,000 yuan per ton increase in silicon price raises component costs by about 0.1 yuan per watt [3] Regulatory Environment - The decline in investment returns for photovoltaic power stations is a significant factor limiting component price increases, as outlined in the "136 Document" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission [4][5] - New regulations set a mechanism price of 0.4155 yuan per kilowatt-hour for projects connected to the grid before June 1, 2025, impacting the financial viability of new installations [6] Production Capacity and Storage Plans - Despite price stabilization, polysilicon production capacity is increasing, particularly in regions with low energy costs [7][8] - A proposed storage plan aims to establish a storage capacity of 1.2 to 1.3 million tons, with a target to maintain around 70% operational capacity to meet market demand [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Siyuan Electric**: Noted for its strong performance in Q2 and significant order growth - **Shenma Power**: Focused on overseas orders and stock buyback for employee incentives - **XWANDA**: Highlighted for its consumer battery business and market share growth - **Wind Power Sector**: Discussed recent trends in bidding prices and market demand - **Photovoltaic Industry**: Addressed issues related to silicon material storage and policy support - **LianDe Co.**: Recognized for its competitive advantage in the ARDC field - **Tengya Precision**: Mentioned for its robotic products and sales expectations Core Points and Arguments - **Siyuan Electric's Performance**: Q2 results exceeded expectations with significant improvements in both domestic and international orders, despite short-term stock price fluctuations due to foreign ownership limits. The company shows high competitiveness in overseas markets [3][1] - **Shenma Power's Confidence**: The company has seen a continuous rise in overseas orders and announced a stock buyback at a 50% premium to current prices, indicating management's confidence in future growth. It holds a leading position in composite insulation materials globally [4][1] - **XWANDA's Market Position**: The company has successfully onboarded major clients in the consumer battery sector, achieving full production capacity. It is expected to see growth in both consumer and power markets, with its stock currently undervalued [5][1] - **Wind Power Market Trends**: Bidding prices for wind turbines increased by over 20% year-on-year in July, with total bidding volume also rising significantly, indicating robust market demand [6][1][9] - **Photovoltaic Industry Challenges**: The industry faces issues with silicon material storage, but government support is likely to facilitate solutions. Monitoring of energy-saving measures for silicon companies is planned, indicating potential for growth [7][1][19] - **LianDe Co.'s Growth Potential**: The company is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by AI developments, with projected profits of 250 million yuan this year, making it a promising investment [2][1] - **Tengya Precision's Sales Forecast**: The company anticipates exceeding sales expectations for its robotic products, with a target of over 300,000 units next year, and plans to introduce higher-end products [12][1][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Wind Power Price Recovery**: The implementation of anti-involution measures since 2024 has led to significant improvements in pricing and profitability for wind turbine companies [9][1] - **Yunda's Future Outlook**: Expected recovery in profitability starting Q4 2025, driven by higher domestic wind turbine order prices and a strong order backlog [10][1] - **Robotics Industry Developments**: The industry is seeing positive changes, with specific companies like Tengya Precision showing promising sales and product development [11][1] - **Electric Vehicle Market Stability**: Despite being a traditional off-season, the EV market remains stable with significant sales growth and a penetration rate of 53%-54% [16][1] - **Lithium Battery and EV Sector Dynamics**: Companies are making significant investments in production capacity for energy storage, indicating a shift in focus to meet growing demand [17][1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 3.33%, mainly driven by the rise in polysilicon. Polysilicon rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but the increase converged and prices fell on Friday. Next week, the futures prices are expected to consolidate at high levels with a downward - shifting center of gravity [5]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, the spot price increased significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Northwest Yili region remained stable, and large - scale producers showed no signs of production cuts. The production cost in the Southwest decreased, with some regions having a positive resumption of production. On the demand side, the overall demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continued to slow down [5]. - For polysilicon, on the supply side, the overall production increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some under maintenance. On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declined significantly, and downstream demand weakened marginally. The overall demand side still faces great pressure [5]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7800 - 9200. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with an oscillation range of 40000 - 45000 and a stop - loss range of 38500 - 46000 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.33% this week, driven by polysilicon. There were rumors of silicon material storage, but they were unconfirmed. Polysilicon prices rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but prices fell on Friday due to weak downstream feedback [5]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply increased, and demand from downstream industries slowed down. For polysilicon, supply increased slightly, and demand faced great pressure. If the silicon material storage rumor is disproven next week, prices are expected to fall [5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term within 40000 - 45000, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [5]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures and spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 655 yuan/ton. The production and operating rate increased, with a national output of about 78,900 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 54.33% [11][13][20]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the spot price remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, and the basis was 2150 yuan/g [15][17]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - **Raw Materials and Costs**: Industrial silicon raw material prices fell slightly, electricity prices decreased, and overall costs continued to decline during the wet season. The electricity price in the Southwest was stable at 0.3 yuan/kWh, and the silica price remained stable [23][26]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, and the overall inventory remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, a decrease of 435 lots, and the total social inventory was 553,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [28][30]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, but costs increased significantly, leading to a decline in profits. As of July 18, 2025, the weekly output was 44,900 tons, the operating rate was 71.38% (up 1.97%), the spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), the gross profit was 63 yuan/ton (down 263 yuan/ton), and the cost was 10,797 yuan/ton (up 323 yuan/ton) [33][37][44]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices fell, inventory increased significantly, and passive de - stocking continued. As of July 18, 2025, the price was 20,100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), and the inventory was 37,200 tons (up 5800 tons) [46][48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, while polysilicon prices rose, but downstream acceptance was weak. As of July 18, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.17 yuan/piece (down 0.02 yuan/piece), and the battery cell price was 0.26 yuan/watt (down 0.02 yuan/watt) [53][55]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, while the industrial silicon price increased, leading to higher production costs. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month (a 3.15% month - on - month decrease) [60][65].

Overall Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme is gaining traction across various industries, including photovoltaics, with significant policy support and stronger actions expected to continue into Q3 2025 [3] - Short-term price increases in silicon materials are a response to policy changes, with N-type polysilicon prices rising to 43-49 yuan/kg, and subsequent price increases in solar cells and modules anticipated [3] Mid-term Focus - Attention is on whether silicon material "stockpiling" can be achieved, with key concerns around the valuation of the stockpiled capacity and the interest costs for funding parties [4] - The market expects that if the stockpiled capacity is valued at net asset value with a discount, the implicit market pricing logic suggests silicon prices should not exceed 40 yuan/kg; otherwise, administrative intervention may be necessary [4] - Funding parties are likely to participate if the initial price of stockpiled capacity is low, and if stockpiling can clear supply while maintaining silicon prices above 50 yuan/kg [4] Wind Power - Wind power is expected to benefit from "anti-involution" policies, with significant earnings elasticity anticipated in the wind turbine segment by 2026 due to larger units and cost reductions in components [4] - The 136 document reshapes the logic of new energy installations, with improved output curves for wind power likely leading to a recovery in wind power development and project sales [4] - Short-term pressures on wind power bidding and Q2 performance are expected, but the market is gradually digesting these issues, with improving expectations for related indicators [4] Solid-State Batteries - The outlook for solid-state batteries remains positive, despite recent weak performance due to prior high price increases [5] - Focus on all-solid-state battery equipment and lithium sulfide in the supply chain, which are expected to benefit from new tenders from major lithium battery manufacturers [5] - Attention is also on the progress of semi-solid batteries and electrolyte modifications, as liquid or semi-solid batteries can adopt solid-state processes, leading to better performance and faster implementation [5] Energy Storage - Mid-term profitability improvements for large-scale energy storage depend on the development of the electricity market and increased trading flexibility, with ongoing subsidies needed in the short term [6] - The commercial model for large-scale energy storage is expected to improve, necessitating continuous monitoring of tender data changes in the second half of the year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to various market factors, including government policies aimed at improving industry conditions and rumors regarding potential supply adjustments [2][6][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures prices hit the daily limit up, closing at 38,385 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7% and a trading volume increase of over 5,000 contracts [2]. - The market is experiencing significant speculation, with rumors about cost-based pricing and potential penalties for prices below minimum cost levels [2][3]. - Recent government initiatives encourage the development of high-power charging facilities and the integration of solar power and energy storage, contributing to positive market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The current weekly production of polysilicon remains stable at 21,300 tons, but the industry is facing high inventory levels and has been in a loss-making phase since May of the previous year [5][7]. - Demand from the downstream photovoltaic sector is showing signs of improvement, with expectations for increased consumption of polysilicon [5][6]. - Despite the positive price movements, there are concerns about weak downstream demand, which could lead to further declines in consumption if high costs are passed down [7][8]. Group 3: Price Trends - The average market price for N-type polysilicon has risen to 39 yuan/kg, reflecting a 3 yuan/kg increase from the previous period [4][5]. - P-type polysilicon prices remain stable, with no changes reported, while N-type products are experiencing significant price increases [5]. - The overall market sentiment indicates a potential for price recovery, but the lack of substantial support from actual transactions raises concerns about the sustainability of the price increases [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The solar energy sector has experienced a significant surge, driven by rumors of potential silicon material storage and a broader "anti-involution" trend in the industry [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 8, the solar energy sector saw a collective explosion, with stocks like Shihang New Energy hitting a 20% limit up, Daqian Energy rising nearly 16%, and Tongwei Co. also reaching the limit up [2][3]. - Nearly 20 stocks in the solar sector experienced limit up or over 10% gains, indicating strong market enthusiasm [4][5]. - The Hong Kong market also reflected this trend, with the solar sector rising over 5%, and several companies achieving gains of 7% or more [5]. Group 2: Silicon Material Pricing - Multi-crystalline silicon futures continued to rise, with the main contract closing up 4.82%, reaching a two-and-a-half-month high [6]. - According to Mysteel's research, prices for multi-crystalline silicon are expected to be above 40 yuan per kilogram, with some companies halting quotes as they reassess costs [7]. - There are indications that silicon wafer companies are considering price increases, while component manufacturers are also expected to raise prices soon [7]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Expectations - The "anti-involution" concept is gaining traction in the solar industry, with companies collaborating to raise prices to alleviate cost pressures and losses [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics may lead to a three-phase development of the "anti-involution" trend, starting with policy-driven expectations, followed by resource price increases, and finally sustained high prices [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share photovoltaic sector, particularly the silicon material segment, experienced a significant surge due to rumors of a "stockpiling" plan among major silicon material companies, although these claims remain unverified [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The silicon material sector is currently facing a supply-demand tug-of-war, with utilization rates among leading silicon material companies reported between 20% to 50% [1][3]. - A recent report indicated that the average transaction price for N-type granular silicon was around 36,000 RMB per ton, reflecting a 2.7% decrease week-on-week [4]. - The domestic production of polysilicon is expected to decrease to approximately 96,000 tons in May, representing a month-on-month decline of about 3% [4]. Group 2: Industry Responses - Industry leaders are recognizing the need for collective action to reduce inventory, with some companies already reducing stock levels since last year [3][5]. - There is a consensus among industry players that limiting production is essential for addressing the high inventory levels and low prices that have fallen below cash costs [3][5]. - Some polysilicon companies are considering advancing their scheduled maintenance to the second quarter due to extreme market conditions [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is projected to see a 23.6% year-on-year increase in polysilicon production, exceeding 1.82 million tons in 2024, despite facing significant operational pressures [5].