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浙商证券:AI重塑光纤需求结构 供需拐点有望推动量价齐升
智通财经网· 2025-12-23 02:40
供需格局失衡、价格盈利承压,行业已下行近2年时间 智通财经APP获悉,浙商证券发布研报称,供需格局失衡、价格盈利承压,光伏行业已下行近2年时 间。在当前行业承压背景下推行"反内卷"政策,各环节企业共识性更强,行业亟需破局。2025年12月硅 料收储平台已正式成立,期待2026光伏拐点之年。国家/协会已出台多项政策措施发力,期待进展提 速。各大龙头公司目标2025/2026年业绩扭亏为盈,彰显对行业发展信心。 浙商证券主要观点如下: 1)硅料收储平台成立:2025年12月"北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司"正式成立。行业有望进入"市场化 运作+行业协同调控"新阶段。 2)期待行业整合加速:硅料产能集中度最高、最易于管控,且硅料成本占比最小,对下游价格接受度影 响小,并且卡位关键、投资/开停成本高。该行测算:硅料每上涨1万元/吨,对应组件成本增加2分/W, 如下游电站非技术成本优化、硅料具备涨价空间。期待未来硅料收储进展提速。 期待2026行业拐点向上,基金配置已处低位 1)国家/协会层面:"反内卷"为国家意志,国家/协会已出台多项政策措施发力,期待进展提速。2)公司 层面:隆基、晶澳、弘元绿能相机发布股权激励/员工 ...
“硅料收储”要立个好榜样|反内卷系列评论
经济观察报· 2025-12-16 13:19
要立个好榜样,首先,要以"公心"推进收储大计,这个"公 心"就是行业的长期健康发展。行业头部企业既是硅料收储的 参与者,也是直接受益者,通过市场化的"收储",头部企业能 够获得市场份额和利润提升,这本无可厚非,但不能让收储"异 化"为头部企业的盛宴,而忽视中小企业和整个产业链的利 益。 作者:宋笛 封图:图虫创意 近日,北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司完成注册,标志着光伏行业酝酿已久的"多晶硅产能整合收 购平台"正式落地。这一由相关主管部门联合指导、多家龙头骨干企业共同发起的产业治理创新, 被视为破解光伏"内卷式"恶性竞争的关键之一。 这无疑是一次冒险的尝试。从构想到落地,收储方案忽隐忽现,各种"小作文"反复出现,让市场起起 伏伏。这种起伏本身就说明,方案潜藏着对市场的巨大影响力,需要格外谨慎对待。 更重要的是,硅料收储不仅是光伏行业自身的探索,它还承担着为其他深陷"内卷式"恶性竞争行 业提供可复制范本的使命。中国不少产业都面临类似困境,如何在市场化、法治化的框架内化解这 些矛盾,多晶硅行业正在先行先试。 硅料收储是一次"有效市场+有为政府"结合的探索,是一次难得的民营企业自发协调的尝试。如果 成功,可为其他行业 ...
“硅料收储”要立个好榜样|反内卷系列评论
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-12-16 12:55
近日,北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司完成注册,标志着光伏行业酝酿已久的"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"正式落地。这一由相关主管部门联合指导、多家龙 头骨干企业共同发起的产业治理创新,被视为破解光伏"内卷式"恶性竞争的关键之一。 这无疑是一次冒险的尝试。从构想到落地,收储方案忽隐忽现,各种"小作文"反复出现,让市场起起伏伏。这种起伏本身就说明,方案潜藏着对市场的巨大影响 力,需要格外谨慎对待。 如果不注意其可能触发的垄断风险,不仅会为中国未来新能源出海之路增加风险,更会破坏行业的长期活力。 第三,要坚持市场化原则。收储不是行政命令,而应该是市场主体的自主选择。头部企业的产能不等于先进产能,中小企业的产能也不等于落后产能。这种对产 能"人为选择"的结果需要经受市场检验。同时,收储应该建立合理的退出成本机制,让那些盲目扩张、错误决策的企业为自己的行为"买单",而不是通过收储让 所有人都成为赢家。 要知道,"收储"并非没有代价,也不是一收就灵,硅料价格能否"回归合理区间"也需要市场的验证,比如下游有没有充分的"买单"意愿和能力。 最后,"收储"要以更审慎的方式推进。5月至今各种"小作文"反复炒作,相关上市公司、期货价格大幅波 ...
历经半年,硅料收储计划迈出关键一步
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-12-12 07:09
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Silicon Material Storage Platform Company" is a significant move to address the overcapacity and price decline issues in the photovoltaic silicon material industry, aiming for strategic cooperation among major industry players [2][4][6]. Group 1: Company Formation and Purpose - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. was registered on December 9 with a capital of 3 billion yuan, focusing on technology services and consulting [2]. - The company aims to explore strategic cooperation opportunities in the photovoltaic industry, including technology upgrades and market expansion [2]. - The formation of the "Silicon Material Storage Platform Company" is intended to tackle severe overcapacity, low prices, and high inventory levels in the silicon material sector [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Context and Challenges - Domestic polysilicon capacity exceeds 3 million tons, capable of supplying 1,500 GW of photovoltaic modules, far exceeding actual downstream demand [4]. - The price of silicon materials has dropped from over 70,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 30,000 yuan/ton, below the industry's cash cost line [4]. - Despite self-regulatory efforts, over 500,000 tons of silicon material inventory remains, sufficient for 2-3 months of downstream use [5]. Group 3: Strategic Plans and Market Reactions - A proposed industry fund of 70 billion yuan aims to acquire and consolidate silicon material capacity, with plans for production cuts to stabilize prices [2][6]. - The market speculates that the storage capacity for the platform could be around 1.2 to 1.3 million tons, with a target of retaining 2.2 million tons to ensure a 70% operating rate [7]. - The company has garnered interest from leading silicon material enterprises, indicating a collaborative approach to address industry challenges [6]. Group 4: Company Structure and Leadership - Guanghe Qiancheng's ownership includes major players like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings, with a diverse board of directors from leading silicon material companies [9][10]. - The leadership team comprises experienced professionals from the industry, suggesting a strong operational foundation for the new company [10]. - The establishment of this company may lead to the exit of certain firms from the silicon material storage collaboration, indicating a shift in industry dynamics [10].
“硅料收储平台”来了?通威、协鑫、大全、新特等参股,也有厂商未加入
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-10 16:17
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. is seen as a significant development in the photovoltaic industry, acting as a "silicon material storage platform" aimed at fostering strategic cooperation among major industry players for sustainable development [1][2][10]. Company Summary - Guanghe Qiancheng is jointly owned by several key players in the photovoltaic sector, including Tongwei Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, Daqo New Energy Corp., and Xinte Energy Co., Ltd. [1][3]. - Tongwei's subsidiary holds a 30.35% stake with a registered capital of 910.5 million yuan, while GCL-Poly holds 16.79%. Other shareholders include Shanghai Dongfang Hope New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Daqo New Energy, among others [3]. Industry Context - Guanghe Qiancheng is perceived as a "silicon material storage platform," although major silicon material manufacturers like Hongyuan Green Energy and Hoshine Silicon Industry have not participated in its establishment [2][5]. - The platform aims to explore strategic cooperation opportunities within the industry, focusing on technology upgrades, market expansion, and cost optimization, rather than solely on market expansion for individual companies [3][10]. Market Position - According to Bernreuter Research, in 2024, nine out of the top ten polysilicon manufacturers globally will be based in China, with Tongwei, GCL-Poly, Daqo, and Xinte collectively holding a 65% market share [4]. - The planned production capacity of non-participating companies like Hoshine Silicon and its subsidiary exceeds 80,000 tons, indicating a significant supply potential in the market [7][8]. Future Outlook - The establishment of Guanghe Qiancheng comes at a time when the global demand for polysilicon is expected to decline, with projections indicating a 10.07% decrease in new photovoltaic installations by 2026 [8]. - The industry is urged to manage production capacity effectively to align with the declining demand, highlighting the importance of the newly formed platform in fostering a sustainable industry ecosystem [8][10].
通威、协鑫等巨头“组队”成立收储平台 光伏业自救迈出关键一步
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-12-10 09:46
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the solar industry, particularly in the context of the silicon material storage plan, which aims to address supply-demand imbalances in the market by consolidating production capacity among leading silicon material companies [1][9]. Group 1: Company Formation and Structure - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. was officially established on December 9, 2025, and is recognized as a silicon material storage platform enterprise [1][3]. - The company has a registered capital of 3 billion yuan and includes 10 shareholders, primarily consisting of leading silicon material companies such as Xinte Energy, Daqo Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., and others [7][8]. - The management team includes representatives from the participating companies, with the legal representative being Hou Yicong and the chairman being Qian Cheng [8][9]. Group 2: Industry Context and Implications - The silicon material storage plan is a self-rescue initiative launched by the solar industry to mitigate the oversupply of silicon materials, which has been a pressing issue since May of this year [9]. - The plan aims to create a holding platform by leading silicon material companies to acquire excess production capacity from other firms, thereby stabilizing the supply chain [9]. - Despite the optimism surrounding the storage plan, there are complexities due to the conflicting interests of various stakeholders within the industry [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - In November, China's polysilicon production was approximately 114,900 tons, reflecting a significant month-on-month decrease of 15.9%, primarily due to planned reductions and maintenance by major companies [10]. - The current market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressures, but the actual shipment strategies of companies are expected to influence price trends more than basic supply-demand fundamentals [10].
知情人回应多晶硅收储平台成立:这就是一直在做的事
21世纪经济报道· 2025-12-10 08:29
作者丨曹恩惠 编辑丨骆一帆 硅料收储平台公司真的来了? 12月9日,有消息称一家名为"北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司"(下称光和谦成)即为业内盼 望已久的硅料收储平台公司。该公司已在当天注册成立,注册资本为30亿元,注册地址在北京 市朝阳区垡头化工东里3号36号楼6层B6221房间。 当日晚间,国家企业信用信息公示系统、天眼查等工商信息平台已无法查询到光和谦成的相关 信息。 但12月10日,工商信息平台不仅显示了光和谦成的信息,其备受关注的股东架构也浮 出水面。 | 序号 | | 股东名称 | 持股比例 ÷ | 认缴出资额(万元) ÷ | 认缴出资日期 = | 关联产品/机构 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 通戚光伏科技(峨眉山)有限公司 露 | 30.35% | 91050 | 2029-12-01 | 画威股份 | | 2 | OOCL | 协鑫科技咨询服务(苏州)有限公司 混 | 16.79% | 50370 | 2029-12-01 | | | 3 | 希望 | 上海东方希望新能源科技有限公司 富 | 11.3% | 33900 ...
硅料收储平台真的来了?知情人士:“这就是一直在做的事情”
21世纪经济报道记者曹恩惠上海报道 硅料收储平台公司真的来了? 12月9日,有消息称一家名为"北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司"(下称光和谦成)即为业内盼望已久的硅料收储平台公司。该公 司已在当天注册成立,注册资本为30亿元,注册地址在北京市朝阳区垡头化工东里3号36号楼6层B6221房间。 此外,根据公开资料,侯一聪投资管理经历丰富,曾在信永中和会计师事务所担任项目经理工作多年,并且其还是任职IDG资 本投资顾问(北京)有限公司大项目投后负责人兼金融科技行业高级投资经理,昆吾九鼎投资管理有限公司投资总监,在项目 并购、协议执行等项目处置实操中积累了丰富的经验。 从持股比例上看,通威光伏科技(峨眉山)有限公司、协鑫科技咨询服务(苏州)有限公司、上海东方希望新能源科技有限公 司、新疆大全新能源股份有限公司、新特能源股份有限公司这五家公司持股居前,分别为30.35%、16.79%、11.3%、11.13%、 10.12%。 上述股权信息显示,通威股份、协鑫科技、东方希望、大全能源、新特能源,以及亚洲硅业、青海丽豪、南玻集团以及戈恩斯 能源等九家硅料企业参与了光和谦成的成立。 值得注意的是,光和谦成的最后一位股东北京中 ...
光伏股集体持续大跌,支撑行业反转的两大逻辑变了吗?
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-04 03:54
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is experiencing significant stock declines, with over 120 stocks dropping on November 21, and the PV equipment index falling by 15.7% from its peak on November 11 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The PV equipment index reached a high of 592.03 points on November 11 but fell to 499.24 points by December 3, marking a decline of 15.7% [1]. - On December 3, 76 PV stocks closed lower, with notable declines in companies such as Guosheng Technology, Shuangliang Energy, and Aiko Solar, all dropping over 3% [1]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted from optimism earlier in the year, where many stocks had doubled in value by September 5, to a current state of pessimism [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The PV industry is facing a downturn due to persistent overcapacity, leading to price competition and a lack of confidence in the market [2][4]. - Silicon material prices have not increased for nine consecutive weeks since late September, and prices for silicon wafers and battery cells have been declining since mid-October [2]. - Recent reports indicate that five companies have begun price promotions, reversing the earlier price increases seen in the second half of the year [2]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has recognized the need to address low-price competition in the PV sector, with the central economic committee emphasizing the importance of quality and orderly production [3][4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated several measures to regulate the industry, including a focus on product quality and the exit of outdated production capacity [3][6]. - Despite the ongoing efforts, skepticism remains regarding the effectiveness of these policies, as some companies continue to expand capacity, undermining the intended regulatory impact [4][6]. Group 4: Silicon Material Storage Initiatives - The PV industry is attempting to address the oversupply of silicon materials through a storage initiative, with plans to consolidate and reduce production capacity [8][10]. - A proposed platform for silicon material storage aims to acquire approximately 100,000 tons of capacity, with an initial funding target of 100 billion yuan [8][10]. - However, the implementation of this initiative has faced delays, and there are concerns about the feasibility of achieving the necessary industry cooperation [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there is a belief that the underlying logic for a recovery in the PV sector remains intact, with expectations for future policy support and market stabilization [12]. - The Chinese government's commitment to renewable energy, including ambitious targets for solar and wind power, provides a long-term growth outlook for the PV industry [12].
港股异动 | 光伏股尾盘跌幅扩大 四季度光伏装机增长或承压 市场关注收储平台落地进展
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 07:32
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in solar stocks, with notable drops in companies such as New Energy (3.31% down), Flat Glass (2.81% down), Fuyao Glass (2.64% down), and Xinyi Solar (1.43% down) [1] - According to a report from招商期货, the production of silicon wafers and battery cells in November is expected to decrease by 4.9% and 1.0% respectively compared to October [1] - In September, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66 GW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 31.25% [1] Group 2 - The introduction of the "Document No. 136" mechanism for electricity pricing is expected to put pressure on domestic photovoltaic installations in the fourth quarter [1] - Tongwei's Liu Hanyuan recently stated that the storage of silicon materials will not violate antitrust laws [1] - A report from 南华期货 indicates that the current market focus for polysilicon revolves around the establishment of a storage platform in November, with future expectations shifting towards the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [1]