Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse its current supply - excess and inventory - accumulation situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20] Summary by Directory Soybean and Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated, Brazilian soybean premiums rose, and the cost of imported soybeans remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with an offer of 2,980 yuan/ton in East China. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days, a decrease of 0.25 days from last week. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year, and soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons. [2] - Brazilian soybean planting areas had slightly less rainfall in November than usual, but more rainfall is forecasted for December, and planting is expected to proceed smoothly. The November USDA report estimated that the global soybean production and consumption in the 25/26 season are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed from double - growth to supply - decrease and demand - increase. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%. [2] Strategy Viewpoints - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, and is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. [6] - MYSTEEL statistics showed that the total domestic oil inventory remained flat last week. Palm oil inventory was at a normal level year - on - year and continued to accumulate. The de - stocking trend of soybean oil rebounded due to increased crushing volume, and rapeseed oil continued to de - stock due to a shortage of Canadian rapeseed imports. The total oil inventory is expected to decrease in the future. [6] - On Tuesday, domestic oil prices fell sharply. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil in November was weak, and high - frequency data still showed month - on - month production increase. Domestic spot basis was stable. [6] Strategy Viewpoints - The unexpected high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses its market performance. Palm oil may reverse its current situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound. The closing price of the January contract was 5,387 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 146,000 tons, a decrease of 264,000 tons. The ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. Indian sugar production has increased significantly compared to the same period last year. [10] Strategy Viewpoints - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. The closing price of the January contract was 13,645 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The spot price index rose, and the basis was 1,187 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week and 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA report increased the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.05 yuan to 2.93 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, downstream digestion was average, and the market was in a stalemate. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with minor fluctuations. [16] Strategy Viewpoints - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.15 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 11.56 yuan/kg. Market demand increased slightly, while pig slaughter volume continued to increase, resulting in oversupply. Pig prices may continue to decline today. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global soybean supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped to 28.94%, providing a bottom support for global soybeans. However, the ratio is still relatively high year - on - year, not enough to generate a profitable CBOT soybean planting market. The marginal reduction in production mainly comes from the US and other small - scale producing countries, having no direct impact on the soybean trade flow. The soybean price needs further impetus from South American planting problems to break through the cost range. The price of soymeal will fluctuate within a range due to the repeated changes in import costs and crushing margins [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean New - Crop Supply Turns to a Production - Reduction Pattern, but the Global Soybean Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Remains High In November, the USDA forecast further lowered the global soybean new - crop production by about 4 million tons, mainly due to the reduction in India, Ukraine, and the US. After the November adjustment, the 25/26 global soybean production and consumption are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%, providing bottom support but not enough for high CBOT soybean planting profits. The US soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom range, and there is strong pressure around the cost of 1180 - 1200 cents per bushel. The marginal production reduction has little direct impact on the soybean trade flow, and a scenario of high soybean crushing margins may require further problems in South American planting [3]. 3.2 China's Purchase of US Soybeans Pressures Domestic Crushing Margins China bought at least 14 batches (about 840,000 tons) of US soybeans on Monday, and the purchase may continue. The current domestic soybean inventory is high, reaching about 9.9 million tons as of last weekend. Although the previous procurement has gradually declined and there may be inventory reduction from November to the end of February next year, with the increase in purchases of US soybeans for December and January shipments and the surplus from Brazil's bumper harvest, the domestic port soybean inventory may be around 4 million tons in March next year, remaining at a certain level [8]. 3.3 The Weather in South America is Normal, and Soymeal is Expected to Oscillate at the Bottom Range The US soybean price will continue to oscillate within a range, with strong support at 950 - 1000 cents per bushel and limited upside due to abundant global supply. The Brazilian soybean offer premium has declined. Recently, the exportable volume of Brazilian soybeans has decreased, and the demand for US soybeans has recovered, supporting the import cost. In the medium - term, after Brazil's rainy season in December, the market may trade on the expectation of a South American bumper harvest, causing the import cost to decline again, but with a clear bottom. The domestic crushing margin will gradually improve with expected inventory reduction, but the improvement may not be significant. Therefore, soymeal will oscillate within a range due to the changes in import costs and crushing margins [10].