Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint Currently, the laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the newly opened production pressure of the laying hens supplemented in the early stage is relatively large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous delivery of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure. Meanwhile, the terminal demand is weak, and the high - temperature weather makes the market cautious, leading to sluggish demand. The willingness of breeding enterprises to sell at low prices to reduce inventory increases, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end remains in a loss state. However, with the start of school - opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. From the perspective of the futures market, under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3065 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 48 yuan compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 39282 hands. The monthly spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of egg futures is 18 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 6 yuan. The trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 411040 hands, an increase of 29360 hands. The number of registered egg warehouse receipts is 0 hands [2]. 现货 Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.2 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period. The basis (spot - futures) is 134 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 48 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 113.18 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.27. The national culled laying hen index is 99.2 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.89. The average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.6 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.25 yuan. The national new - chick index is 78.4 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 2.33. The average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.26 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.05 yuan. The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 10.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan. The average age of culled hens nationwide is 512 days, an increase of 11 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.21 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.79 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan. The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.42 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days. The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7605 tons, an increase of 76 tons [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan compared to the previous day; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.80 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Currently, the egg market is facing an oversupply situation due to high laying - hen inventory, new - laying pressure from previously replenished hens, and continuous cold - storage egg outflows. Meanwhile, terminal demand is weak as high - temperature weather increases demand for egg substitutes. This has led to lower - than - expected spot prices and continuous losses for the breeding sector. However, with school - opening preparations and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the futures market, near - month contracts tend to be weak under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, while far - month contracts are relatively more resistant to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3189 yuan/500 kilograms, down 88 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28965 hands, up 641 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is 98 yuan/500 kilograms, up 12 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 310634 hands, up 157772 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 3 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.03 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week change of 0; the basis (spot - futures) is - 158 yuan/500 kilograms, up 88 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), up 1.02; the national culled laying - hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), down 4.59; the average price of day - old chicks in the main production areas is 3.85 yuan/chick, with a week - on - week change of 0; the national new - chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), down 30.71; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.7 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week change of 0; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.31 yuan/hen, down 0.15 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 11.34 yuan/kg, down 0.42 yuan; the national culling age of laying hens is 501 days, down 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of pork is 4.74 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.39 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.23 days, up 0.12 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.08 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7529 tons, down 368 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 5.99 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.89 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market in July experienced a "sharp decline - rebound - decline" roller - coaster行情. The current supply - demand contradiction is sharp. With high inventory and a continuous increase in newly - laid hens, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Although the peak - season market is approaching, it is restricted by weak consumer recovery and resistance to high prices. It is expected that the differentiated trend of the egg futures market, with near - term weakness and long - term strength, will continue. [8][40] - The report suggests continuing the 09 - 01 contract reverse spread strategy and continuously monitoring capacity reduction and downstream demand changes. [9][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Prices - Last month, the main contract of egg futures changed from 2508 to 2509. The JD2508 contract hit a record low since its listing this week and continued to decline in subsequent trading days. The JD2509 contract showed an overall weak range - bound trend. As of July 31, the main JD2509 contract closed at 3522 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.45%. [5][12] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - In the main production areas, egg prices rose after falling to the lowest point of the year in mid - July, but then declined in the second half of the month due to factors such as excessive price increases inhibiting consumption and an increase in newly - laid hens. As of July 31, the average price in the main production areas was 3.16 yuan per catty, up 0.53 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. - In the main sales areas, egg prices showed a "first - down - then - up" fluctuation. As of July 31, the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per catty, up 0.5 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. [17] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Laying Hen Inventory - In July, the laying hen inventory remained at a high level. As of the end of July, the national laying hen inventory was close to 1.3 billion, a record high, and it is expected to exceed 1.3 billion in August. The expansion of production capacity is mainly due to the slowdown of old - hen culling by farmers in a state of weak profit, forming a negative cycle of "weak profit - slow culling - high inventory". [7][21] 3.2.2 Old Hen Price - As of July 31, the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was 5.89 yuan per catty, up 26.12% from the beginning of July. The market has no obvious signs of increased old - hen supply, and farmers still have confidence in the peak - season egg market, so the enthusiasm for culling is not high. [24] 3.2.3 Chicken Chick Price - Affected by the market situation of strong supply and weak demand, the price of commercial - layer chicks continued to decline in July. The average price in July was 3.59 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95%. The pressure on the profit side weakened the replenishment motivation of farmers, and the low utilization rate of hatching eggs by breeding enterprises further suppressed the chick price. [29] 3.2.4 Old - Hen Culling Progress - In July, the culling volume of old hens continued to decline, showing a decreasing trend. The culling rhythm was affected by factors such as egg - price fluctuations, farming expectations, and demand changes. The average culling age of old hens fluctuated slightly, with an overall range of 501 - 504 days. [34] 3.2.5 Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit - In July, the laying hen farming cost fluctuated slightly in the range of 3.53 - 3.54 yuan per catty, showing a slight downward trend. The farming profit continued to improve, with the loss narrowing from 0.95 yuan per catty at the beginning of the month to 0.29 yuan per catty at the end of the month. [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, with significant pressure from the newly - opened production of hens supplemented earlier, resulting in sufficient egg supply. In the high - temperature and high - humidity climate, the egg storage cost increases, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing, keeping egg prices at a relatively low level compared to the same period. However, after the price reaches a relatively low level, the process of old hen culling accelerates, reducing the inventory expectation. Also, due to the continuous high temperature in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of hens in some areas has declined, alleviating the short - term market supply pressure. With the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the farmers' expectation of price increase is released, which promotes the low - level rebound of egg prices. From the perspective of the futures market, boosted by the stabilization and rebound of the spot market, the decline of the futures market has slowed down, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3621 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 15 yuan compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26705 hands, a decrease of 9586 hands. The egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is 4 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 15 yuan. The futures trading volume of the active contract is 252239 hands, an increase of 7374 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.27 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan. The basis (spot - futures) is - 350 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 44 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.02. The national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.59. The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.88 yuan/chick, a decrease of 0.02 yuan. The national new - hatched chick index is 76.07 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 30.71. The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, unchanged. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.47 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.22 yuan. The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 9.6 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan. The national average age of culled hens is 501 days, a decrease of 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan. The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.26 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.31 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.13 days. The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.95 days, a decrease of 0.1 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7886 tons, an increase of 289 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.49 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.15 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan compared to the previous day; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.60 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.26 yuan compared to the previous day [2].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 17, 2025 - Report Source: Wukuang Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as North American weather, trade wars, and bio - diesel policies, and is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, with suggestions to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure and tariff progress [3][5]. - The palm oil market is influenced by factors like export data and production, and the overall oil market is affected by the EPA policy and production increases. It is expected to fluctuate, with potential for a rise in the fourth quarter [6][9]. - The sugar market may see a downward trend in the future, considering the import profit window and the expected increase in imports [11][12]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as the non - finalized Sino - US trade agreement, basis changes, and potential import quota issuance [14][15]. - The egg market has limited capacity clearance, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - The pig market has a seasonal supply reduction, and the futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [20][21]. Summary by Commodity Soybean/Miscellaneous Meals Market Situation - On Wednesday, US soybeans rebounded and closed higher. North American weather and potential trade - war impacts on exports continued to put pressure on US soybeans, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and bio - diesel policies supported demand. Domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated, with concerns about future purchases and current supply pressure. Spot prices dropped slightly, and oil - mill sales were weak but pick - up was good. The estimated domestic soybean crushing volume is 238.03 million tons this week [3]. - US soybean growing areas are expected to have favorable rainfall in the next two weeks. Brazilian soybean premiums have been rising slightly, and the unresolved Sino - US soybean tariffs support local premiums, offsetting the decline in US soybeans. Overall, soybean import costs are stable for now [3]. Trading Strategy - The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market has multiple factors at play. It is recommended to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at high levels, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Oils Market Situation - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil prices fluctuated, affected by weakening export data. Rapeseed oil was relatively weak, pressured by Sino - Australian diplomatic contacts and a decline in foreign rapeseed prices. The EPA policy has lifted the annual oil price center, but there are still bearish factors due to increased palm oil production in Southeast Asia. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. Trading Strategy - The US bio - diesel policy draft supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, inventory may remain stable, with a potential rise in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, due to high valuation and factors like annual production increases, high palm oil production, and the undetermined RVO rules, the market is expected to fluctuate [9]. Important Information - Malaysian palm oil export data shows an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days of June and a decline of 5.29% - 6.16% in the first 15 days. In July 2025, from the 1st - 10th, palm oil production increased by 35.28%, and in the first 15 days, it increased by 17.06% [6]. - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. Total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [6]. - China and Australia are close to reaching a purchase agreement for 150,000 - 200,000 tons of rapeseed [6]. Sugar Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The September contract closed at 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions showed slight adjustments, with a narrowing of the basis between Guangxi spot and the main contract [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in a good import - profit window, and the expected increase in imports in the second half of the year may lead to a downward trend in sugar prices, especially considering the relatively high valuation of the September contract [12]. Important Information - ICRA estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 34 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons from the current season, due to favorable monsoon rainfall for sugarcane growth [11]. Cotton Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose with increased positions. The September contract closed at 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased slightly, and the basis widened. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, a 0.13% year - on - year decrease and a 4.22% month - on - month increase [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement is not finalized, the cotton price has rebounded. The current basis is not conducive to downstream consumption, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a bearish factor. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile [15]. Important Information - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative textile and clothing exports were 143.978 billion US dollars, a 0.76% year - on - year increase [14]. Eggs Market Situation - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream purchasing intention increased, with faster sales. Today's prices may be stable in some areas and rise slightly in others [17]. Trading Strategy - Capacity clearance in the egg market is limited, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. Due to high futures premiums and large positions, it is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Pigs Market Situation - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally declined. The average price in Henan dropped 0.06 yuan to 14.55 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped 0.1 yuan to 13.71 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling was high, but market digestion was weak, and prices may continue to decline today [20]. Trading Strategy - Since late June, spot pig prices have rebounded, with reduced slaughter volume and lower weights, indicating a seasonal supply reduction. The futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [21]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The egg price has been at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end has been in a loss state. However, after the price reaches a relatively low level, the process of old - hen elimination accelerates, reducing the inventory expectation. The egg - laying rate of laying hens in some areas has declined due to high - temperature weather, alleviating the short - term supply pressure. Coupled with the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the egg price is promoted to rebound. The decline of the futures market has also slowed down, and it is recommended to try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3,591 yuan/500 kilograms, down 24 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28,810 lots, down 2,588 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 21 yuan/500 kilograms, down 16 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active contract is 246,092 lots, up 7,505 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots [2]. Spot Market - The egg spot price is 2.8 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 792 yuan/500 kilograms, up 38 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 110.89 (with 2015 as 100), down 1.46; the national eliminated laying - hen index is 108.68 (with 2015 as 100), up 11.92; the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas is 3.9 yuan/chick, unchanged; the national new - chick index is 106.78 (with 2015 as 100), down 31.9; the average price of egg - chicken compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of egg - chickens is - 0.69 yuan/hen, down 0.11 yuan; the average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 9.2 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan; the age of eliminated chickens is 506 days, down 4 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.61 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.37 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.14 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.17 days, down 0.1 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.05 days, down 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7,606 tons, down 331 tons [2]. Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Hebei is 5.19 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average egg price in Guangdong is 6.40 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average egg price in Beijing is 5.60 yuan/kg, unchanged. The current laying - hen inventory is at a high level, the pressure of newly - laid eggs from the previously replenished laying hens is large, and the egg supply is relatively sufficient [2].

General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: June 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The current oversupply in the egg market remains the main theme, and all contracts are at historically low price levels. The recent price rebound is only a phase and difficult to form a trend. As time passes, the market's purchasing sentiment may gradually improve, and there may be support at the previous price bottom. The downside space for the 08 contract is relatively small, but the operation rhythm is difficult, with the possibility of slow decline and sharp rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the intensity of chicken culling [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - Egg 2507 contract: The previous settlement price was 2954, the opening price was 2902, the highest price was 2910, the lowest price was 2855, the closing price was 2857, down 97 or -3.28%. The trading volume was 29,698, the open interest was 40,856, a decrease of 1336 [7] - Egg 2508 contract: The previous settlement price was 3622, the opening price was 3593, the highest price was 3600, the lowest price was 3557, the closing price was 3569, down 53 or -1.46%. The trading volume was 189,517, the open interest was 236,982, an increase of 3337 [7] - Egg 2509 contract: The previous settlement price was 3666, the opening price was 3645, the highest price was 3652, the lowest price was 3622, the closing price was 3630, down 36 or -0.98%. The trading volume was 58,381, the open interest was 138,603, an increase of 11,347 [7] - **Price Situation**: The national egg price was stable today. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.00 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 08 contract fell 1.46% [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: The price rebound should be treated as a phase, and it is difficult to form a trend. As time passes, the market's purchasing sentiment may gradually improve, and there may be support at the previous price bottom. The downside space for the 08 contract is relatively small, but the operation rhythm is difficult, with the possibility of slow decline and sharp rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the intensity of chicken culling [8] 2. Industry News - **Laying Hen Inventory**: As of the end of May, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.334 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, showing a certain degree of growth for five consecutive months, and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% compared with 1.244 billion in the same period last year [9] - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In May, the monthly hatchling volume of layer chicks in sample enterprises was about 44.98 million, slightly less than 46.99 million in April and slightly higher than 44.54 million in the same period in 2024. It is a medium-level single-month replenishment volume in May in the past eight years [9] - **Chicken Culling Volume**: In the first three weeks as of June 6, the national chicken culling volumes were 19.97 million, 21.02 million, and 19.53 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, with four consecutive weeks of month-on-month increases, and a slight decline this week. The absolute value was slightly higher than the levels of the previous three years. As of June 12, the average culling age of chickens was 512 days, three days earlier than last week and 22 days earlier than last month [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's monthly inventory of laying hens, egg chicken breeding profits, average prices in the main egg-producing areas, seasonal trends of the egg 07 contract, basis of the egg 07 contract, and price difference between the egg 08 and 09 contracts, with data sources including Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [10][17][19]

Supply Side - The number of laying hens in production has shown an upward trend, with approximately 1.329 billion hens as of the end of April, up from 1.318 billion at the end of March and 1.306 billion at the end of February, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% from 1.24 billion last year [1] - Due to favorable breeding profits starting in May 2024, the replenishment enthusiasm in the second half of the year has improved and is expected to continue [1] - Sample enterprise data suggests a slight increase in stock levels is anticipated in Q2 2024, with this trend likely to persist at least until the end of Q2 [1] Demand Side - Weekly chicken egg sales for the four weeks ending May 1 were approximately 8,772 tons, consistent with March figures and up from 6,942 tons in February, while April sales were around 7,674 tons [1] - April sales showed both month-on-month and year-on-year increases, with good sales post-Qingming Festival, although some demand may be attributed to low-price stockpiling that has not yet been fully consumed at the terminal [1] - The inter-regional movement of people increased by about 5.5% compared to last year during the May Day holiday, which is beneficial for holiday consumption demand for eggs [1] Market Outlook - The current demand season is not robust, with excess inventory needing to be digested, leading to a potentially weak market in May, with attention on the Dragon Boat Festival stocking situation at the end of the month [1] - In the futures market, due to weak spot prices and low basis for the June contract, there may be room for price declines, with a rebound contingent on continued increases in chicken culling [1] - Short-term outlook is bearish, with futures traders advised to monitor mid-month spot stability and consider bearish operations if demand remains lukewarm, while looking for opportunities in the August and September contracts post-monsoon season [1] Key Variables - Important variables to monitor include the demand situation for the Dragon Boat Festival, culling intentions, and feed costs [1]

Supply Side - The number of laying hens in production has shown an upward trend, with a monthly stock of approximately 1.329 billion as of the end of April, up from 1.318 billion at the end of March and 1.306 billion at the end of February, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% compared to 1.24 billion last year [1] - Due to favorable breeding profits starting from May 2024, the replenishment enthusiasm in the second half of 2024 is expected to recover and continue. Some sample enterprises suggest a slight increase in stock in the second quarter of this year, with current breeding profits indicating this trend may persist at least until the end of the second quarter [1] Demand Side - Weekly chicken egg sales for the four weeks leading up to May 1 were approximately 8,772 tons, consistent with March figures and up from 6,942 tons in February, while April sales were around 7,674 tons. April sales showed an increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, with good sales post-Qingming Festival, although some demand may be attributed to low-price stockpiling that has not yet been fully consumed at the terminal level [1] - From April 30 to May 3, the nationwide inter-regional mobility increased by about 5.5% year-on-year, compared to a 2.1% increase during the same five days last year, which is beneficial for holiday consumption demand for eggs [1] Market Outlook - The current peak season for spot demand is not robust, with excess inventory needing to be digested. A decline in demand is anticipated, leading to a weaker market in May, with attention on the replenishment situation post-Duanwu Festival. The futures market may see price declines due to weak spot conditions and low basis for the June contract, with short-term bearish sentiment prevailing [1] - Strategies suggest that producers and spot traders should view May's spot prices as weak, while futures speculators may find the June futures overvalued. Monitoring mid-month spot stability is crucial, with a bearish approach recommended if conditions remain lukewarm. Opportunities for long positions may arise after the rainy season, particularly for the August and September contracts once valuations decrease [1] - Key variables to watch include Duanwu demand, culling intentions, and feed costs [1]