1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the egg market last week was the intense game between the strong reality of pre - holiday stocking and the pessimistic expectation of the post - holiday off - season, leading to severe "futures - spot divergence." As stocking ended and spot prices fell, the market's dominant logic shifted from "reality" to "expectation" [1] - The near - end trading logic is that after the pre - holiday stocking ends, demand decreases, and the market trades the post - holiday off - season. Also, the production and circulation links have completed inventory replenishment [3][4] - The far - end trading logic includes increased farmers' willingness to cull old chickens as spot prices decline, market expectations of improved demand driven by festival stocking in the second and third quarters, and the impact of accelerated chick replenishment on egg production in 4 - 5 months due to rising chick prices [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The pre - holiday strong demand for stocking and the post - holiday pessimistic demand expectation led to "futures - spot divergence." Spot prices remained firm due to short - term demand, while futures contracts were deeply discounted. The end of stocking and the decline in spot prices marked the start of the resolution of this contradiction [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Judgment**: The pre - holiday stocking demand has ended, and the market is trading the post - holiday demand off - season [10] - **Price Range**: It will fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100 [10] - **Unilateral Strategy**: Enter the market with a light long position when the price drops to around 2900 and take profit when it reaches around 3100 [10] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - **Egg Price Range Prediction**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) at 31.95% [11] - **Risk Management Strategy for Egg Enterprises**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting egg futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with specific contract codes, trading directions, and recommended ratios provided [13] 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: As of the end of January, the inventory days in the production and circulation links were at a relatively low level in the same period of history, providing room for price increases [14] - **Negative Information**: In February, market demand is gradually weakening as food processing enterprises and schools are on holiday. Egg supply is still relatively abundant, and the egg price is expected to decline by 0.90 - 1.00 yuan/jin. The concentrated procurement of food enterprises, e - commerce, and traders is basically completed, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm has decreased [14] 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg quotes in the sales areas [15] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the opening price of the main egg 03 contract was 3002 yuan/500KG, and the closing price was 2904 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 3.26%. The position was 149,000 lots, a decrease of 51,367 lots compared with last week [15] 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure Analysis - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The egg calendar spread generally shows a contango structure [18] - **Basis Structure**: After the end of stocking demand, the decline in egg spot prices is greater than that in futures prices, leading to a narrowing of the basis [20] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the egg - laying hen farming profit is gradually turning into a loss due to price decline, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens is increasing. This week's farming profit decreased compared with last week. Feed prices remained stable, corn prices fluctuated at a high level, and the farming cost remained the same as last week [24] 3.5 This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Egg - Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The proportion of main - producing laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered laying hens decreased. The egg - laying rate remained the same as last month [27] - **Chick Situation**: In January, the chick sales volume increased slightly. The total sales volume of commercial chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information was about 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.16% [30] - **Chicken Culling Situation**: There are differences in the chicken culling data between Zhuochuang and Ganglian. Zhuochuang's monthly chicken culling decreased, while Ganglian's chicken culling volume has been increasing this month, and the market's divergence on the data is increasing [33] 3.5.2 Consumption Situation - This week, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas decreased compared with last week, and the egg arrival volume in the Guangdong wholesale market increased [36] 3.5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the production and circulation links have completed inventory replenishment, with the available inventory days being 1.44 days and 1.77 days respectively [38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The egg market's supply-demand pattern has improved, but long - term egg - laying hen capacity remains in surplus with high price pressure. The current capacity is at a high level but approaching an inflection point, with an overall bearish long - term trend. If speculating on a rebound, it is recommended to focus on far - month contracts [1] - Market expectations are that holiday stocking during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, and Mid - Autumn Festival & National Day in the second and third quarters will boost demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The inventory of laying hens is still at an absolute high. Although the inventory of laying hens in production has decreased slightly, the supply remains high. The market supply - demand pattern has improved. In December, the inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.344 billion, a month - on - month decrease. The egg - laying rate is expected to increase with the dropping temperature. The elimination volume of old hens remains high due to low breeding profits, and the enthusiasm for culling is fair. Chicken chick sales increased slightly in December, but the overall replenishment sentiment remains cautious. The inventory structure shows that the proportion of large and medium - sized eggs increased month - on - month, while that of small - sized eggs decreased [1] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand has started, and the circulation and production inventories are at historical lows. The previous low of the main contract may be a phased low, and there may be a second bottom - testing near contract expiration. The bottom - rebound grinding range may be between 2800 - 3400 [6] - **Strategies**: For the unilateral strategy, close out previous short positions, and either wait and see or lightly bet on a peak - season rebound. For the basis strategy and the calendar - spread strategy, wait and see [6] 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) at 11.01% [6] - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about inventory depreciation, short egg futures (JD2603) to lock in finished - product profits (10% - 25% recommended ratio); if there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell call options (JD2603 - C - 3400); if concerned about inventory depreciation but not wanting to miss potential large price increases, buy out - of - the - money put options (JD2603 - P - 2900). For procurement management, if there are future procurement plans and concerns about rising raw - material prices, buy egg forward contracts (JD2603 - P - 2900) according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs; if there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell put options; if concerned about rising procurement prices but not wanting to lock in profits in advance, buy out - of - the - money call options (JD2603 - C - 3400) [6] Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: In January 2026, the egg price and feed cost both increased, but the increase in egg price (16.72% from January 1 - 15) far exceeded that of feed cost (0.53%), leading to the egg - laying hen breeding industry turning from loss to profit. This improvement in profitability has significantly boosted farmers' confidence, resulting in stronger reluctance to sell and a slower market supply rhythm [8] - **Negative Information**: In the third week of November (collection date: November 20), the mutton price increased month - on - month, while the prices of pork products, eggs, chicken, commercial - generation chicks, live cattle, and laying - hen compound feed decreased month - on - month, and the prices of beef, fresh milk, corn, soybean meal, fattening - pig compound feed, and broiler - chicken compound feed remained flat [9] 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg quotes in the production areas Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The main egg futures contract 03 opened at 3040 yuan/500KG at the beginning of the week and closed at 3072 yuan/500KG at the end of the week, a 1.05% increase. The open interest was 263,000 contracts, an increase of 12,344 contracts from last week [10] 3.2 Basis and Calendar - Spread Structure Analysis - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: The overall egg calendar - spread shows a contango structure. Although the January - February spread shows a back structure, it follows the normal seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, with the overall structure being contango [12] - **Basis Structure**: The increase in the culled - chicken output has made the spot market strong. The basis of contract 01 has widened significantly, and the far - month basis has also strengthened [14] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The current egg - laying hen breeding profit is gradually recovering and approaching the cost line. Seasonally, it is still the lowest in the past five years, giving farmers an incentive to cull hens. This week, the breeding profit remained in the red but is about to turn positive. Feed prices have rebounded, with the corn price strengthening periodically, leading to an increase in breeding costs. If the current breeding profit continues to be in the red, farmers' desire to recoup losses will gradually weaken, accelerating the culling of hens [16] Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Egg - Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while the proportions of reserve and to - be - culled hens decreased. The proportion of hens over 450 days old dropped to 8.52%, a 0.04% month - on - month decrease; the proportion of main - laying hens aged 120 - 450 days increased to 79.16%, a 0.26% month - on - month increase; the proportion of reserve hens under 120 days old dropped to 12.32%, a 0.22% month - on - month decrease. The egg - laying rate remained flat month - on - month [19] - **Chicken Chick Situation**: Chicken chick sales increased slightly in December. The total sales of commercial - generation chicken chicks from 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information were about 39.59 million, a 0.10% month - on - month increase. The egg - laying hen breeding is still in the red, but the strong increase in egg and old - hen prices has turned the breeding profit positive (this week's average weekly egg profit was about 0.13 yuan), directly boosting farmers' confidence in replenishment. Chicken chick orders from breeding enterprises are generally scheduled until the end of February and early March, with some until mid - March, indicating guaranteed future demand [21] - **Culled - Chicken Situation**: There is a divergence between Zhuochuang and Ganglian data on culled - chicken volume. Zhuochuang shows a month - on - month decrease, while Ganglian shows a continuous increase this month, and the market's disagreement over the data is growing [23] 5.2 Consumption Situation - Egg sales in the main sales areas increased, while the egg arrival volume at the Guangdong wholesale market decreased [26] 5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the production - link inventory and the circulation - link inventory were at multi - year lows, at 0.26 days and 0.48 days respectively [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: SPPOMA's production data decline supports the market. Malaysian BMD futures may rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Domestic Dalian palm oil may find support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate between 8200 - 8300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy may reduce industrial use. Brazilian soybean harvest may pressure CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term, but inventory may decrease during the Spring Festival, with limited basis fluctuation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: US crude oil price movements affect the domestic vegetable oil market. Watch if the 05 contract can stop falling between 8900 - 9000 yuan. Spot prices fluctuate slightly [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices are stable, with increased southern pickling demand. December - January prices are uncertain due to potential pandemic impact and secondary fattening. Spot market has some support from farmers' reluctance to sell. The futures market may adjust narrowly [3]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure due to a favorable supply outlook. Brazilian, Indian, and Thai sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic sugar futures are weak due to increased supply, and prices are likely to remain bearish [7]. 2.4 Meal Industry - US soybeans lack trading highlights, and South American new - crop soybeans have a high yield expectation. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the one - to - five spread is supported, but the upside is limited [9]. 2.5 Corn Industry - Short - term corn supply increase may pressure prices, but farmers' reluctance to sell and low - inventory enterprises' restocking needs limit the decline. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 2.6 Red Date Industry - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. Futures prices are weak, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved consumption during the peak season [17]. 2.7 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. US cotton exports showed a mixed trend. Domestic cotton has a long - term optimistic outlook but faces short - term downstream pressure. The price may face resistance around 14050 - 14100 yuan [21]. 2.8 Egg Industry - Egg prices are rising gradually, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. Supply remains sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 8460 yuan, futures price (Y2605) to 8096 yuan, basis increased by 7.69% [1]. - Palm oil: Spot price in Guangdong dropped to 8380 yuan, futures price (P2605) to 8398 yuan, basis increased by 60.87% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 9570 yuan, futures price (O1605) to 9157 yuan, basis increased by 19.71% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Inter - month spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [1]. - Spreads between different oils also changed, such as the soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (e.g., 2605, 2603) increased slightly. Spot prices in various regions had different changes, with an overall upward trend in some areas [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - Slaughter volume increased by 2.48%, while some prices (e.g., daily strip price, piglet price) decreased slightly. Breeding profits improved [3]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - Domestic futures prices of sugar showed a weakening trend, and spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased. Import sugar prices also declined [7]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales data changed significantly, with a decrease in production and sales in some areas and an increase in imports [7]. 3.4 Meal Industry 3.4.1 Price and Basis Changes - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices had different trends, with basis changes. Imported soybean prices were stable, and the basis of some contracts increased [9]. 3.4.2 Market Factors - US soybean is under pressure from South American supply. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and market sentiment affects the spread [9]. 3.5 Corn Industry 3.5.1 Price and Inventory Changes - Corn futures and spot prices decreased slightly, and inventory in some warehouses and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Corn starch futures price increased slightly [10]. 3.5.2 Market Situation - Supply and demand factors, such as farmers' selling behavior and enterprises' procurement, affect the corn market, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 3.6 Red Date Industry 3.6.1 Price and Position Changes - Futures prices of red dates decreased slightly, and spot prices in Cangzhou had different trends. The position and the number of warehouse receipts increased [14]. 3.6.2 Market Situation - Sales area arrivals are high, but transactions are lower than expected. The market is weak in the short - term, with potential improvement during the consumption peak [17]. 3.7 Cotton Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Domestic cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly. ICE cotton futures rose [21]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - Commercial and industrial inventories, import volume, and other indicators changed, with downstream inventory accumulation and marginal profit deterioration [21]. 3.8 Egg Industry 3.8.1 Price and Basis Changes - Egg futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. Egg - related prices (e.g., egg - chick price, culled - hen price) had different trends [23]. 3.8.2 Market Situation - Egg supply is sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23].

Report Title - "Egg Weekly Report: General Demand, Egg Prices Decline" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently facing challenges with weak demand and downward - pressure on prices. The supply side shows a slow de - stocking trend, and the cost of egg - chicken farming is increasing, resulting in negative profits. In the short - term, the egg price is expected to be range - bound, and the long - term outlook depends on the supply - demand balance [5][10][13] Summary by Directory Part I: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 2.8 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas, it was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. The demand in the national egg market recovered this week, the inventory was basically cleared, and the egg price rebounded from the low. The old - hen price showed a trend of strengthening first and then stabilizing [5] 2. Supply Analysis - On December 5th, the national main - producing area egg - chicken culling volume was 20.82 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 488 days, 1 day less than the previous week. In November, the national in - production egg - chicken inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a 5.5% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg - chicken chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of November 20th, the corn price was around 2,278 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3,062 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,513 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.76 yuan/jin for eggs. As of November 21st, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 14th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 7.19 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of December 5th, the national representative selling - area egg sales volume was 7,115 tons, a 4% decrease from the previous week. The production - link inventory decreased, and the circulation - link inventory increased. As of December 3rd, the Shouguang vegetable price index was 144.36, and the national average pork wholesale price was about 14.92 yuan/kg, with little change from the previous week [16] 5. Trading Strategies - Trading logic: The recent increase in culled - chicken volume has relieved the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - stocking speed will be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be range - bound, and the far - month April and May contracts can be considered for long - position building on dips. - Unilateral: The January contract is expected to be range - bound in the short - term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts on dips. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Inventory (Zhuochuang) - The data shows the historical in - production egg - chicken inventory and brooding - chicken replenishment volume from 2018 to 2025 [21] 2. Culled - Chicken Situation - The data shows the weekly culled - chicken volume from 2020 to 2025 [22] 3. Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - The data shows the culled - chicken age and the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main producing areas [26] 4. Spread and Basis - The data shows the basis of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the spreads such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread from 2018 to 2025 [29][30][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse its current supply - excess and inventory - accumulation situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20] Summary by Directory Soybean and Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated, Brazilian soybean premiums rose, and the cost of imported soybeans remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with an offer of 2,980 yuan/ton in East China. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. Feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days, a decrease of 0.25 days from last week. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year, and soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons. [2] - Brazilian soybean planting areas had slightly less rainfall in November than usual, but more rainfall is forecasted for December, and planting is expected to proceed smoothly. The November USDA report estimated that the global soybean production and consumption in the 25/26 season are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed from double - growth to supply - decrease and demand - increase. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%. [2] Strategy Viewpoints - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires a larger reduction in production. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, and is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. [6] - MYSTEEL statistics showed that the total domestic oil inventory remained flat last week. Palm oil inventory was at a normal level year - on - year and continued to accumulate. The de - stocking trend of soybean oil rebounded due to increased crushing volume, and rapeseed oil continued to de - stock due to a shortage of Canadian rapeseed imports. The total oil inventory is expected to decrease in the future. [6] - On Tuesday, domestic oil prices fell sharply. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil in November was weak, and high - frequency data still showed month - on - month production increase. Domestic spot basis was stable. [6] Strategy Viewpoints - The unexpected high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses its market performance. Palm oil may reverse its current situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating perspective and turn to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound. The closing price of the January contract was 5,387 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 146,000 tons, a decrease of 264,000 tons. The ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. Indian sugar production has increased significantly compared to the same period last year. [10] Strategy Viewpoints - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [11] Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. The closing price of the January contract was 13,645 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The spot price index rose, and the basis was 1,187 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from last week and 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA report increased the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to lack of strong driving factors. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.05 yuan to 2.93 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, downstream digestion was average, and the market was in a stalemate. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with minor fluctuations. [16] Strategy Viewpoints - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a near - weak and far - strong contango structure. In the medium term, it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.15 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 11.56 yuan/kg. Market demand increased slightly, while pig slaughter volume continued to increase, resulting in oversupply. Pig prices may continue to decline today. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Pig prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts or engage in reverse spreads. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The egg market shows weak performance based on normal supply - demand without festival support. Egg prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term, with limited upward and downward space. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [5][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Spot Analysis This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin. Egg prices first rose and then fell. The price of old hens fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected to be stable to weak next week, with an average weekly price of about 4.10 yuan/jin [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis The national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume from November 13th to the end of the week was 19.47 million, a 1.8% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 493 days, the same as the previous week. In October, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a 0.01 - billion decrease from the previous month, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The egg - chick monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little month - on - month change and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis As of November 13th, the comprehensive feed cost was about 2503 yuan/ton, and the feed cost per jin of eggs was about 2.75 yuan/jin. The egg - laying hen breeding cost increased slightly this week. The average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.15 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week; on November 6th, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was - 6.1 yuan/feather, a 1.19 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week [15]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis The demand in the selling areas first increased and then decreased this week, with the sales volume increasing by 1.1% week - on - week. As of November 13th, the national representative selling - area egg sales volume was 7382 tons. The inventory in the production and trading links increased passively. The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded [18]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy The trading logic is that although the culling volume of culled chickens has increased recently, the in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still high, and the short - term production reduction will be gradual. The short - term egg price is expected to be weak with limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Inventory The in - production egg - laying hen inventory data for different years from 2018 to 2025 are presented, and the data for October 2024 shows a slight decrease from the previous month [12][23]. 3.2.2 Culling Situation The weekly culling volume data of egg - laying hens from 2020 to 2025 are provided, and the culling volume from November 13th to the end of the week decreased by 1.8% compared with the previous week [12][24]. 3.2.3 Chick - rearing and Complementary Stocking The monthly chick - rearing complementary stocking volume data of sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are given, and the data for October 2024 shows little month - on - month change and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12][25]. 3.2.4 Price Difference and Basis The basis data of January, May, and September contracts from 2018 to 2025, as well as the price difference data between different contracts, are presented [31][32][35].

Core Viewpoint - The main trend in egg futures is a significant decline, with the leading contract dropping to 3030.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.97% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The egg market is expected to exhibit a wide range of fluctuations with a weak bias, primarily due to a high supply level and slow culling of older hens, despite a short-term decrease in new laying hens [2] - The demand side remains weak, influenced by cooler weather, which has not led to a noticeable recovery in food processing and catering channels [2] - Cost support from soybean meal prices is limited due to the overall supply-demand balance in the egg market [2] Group 2: Price Predictions - If the culling of older hens accelerates, there may be opportunities to buy on dips, while a slower culling process suggests a continued wide range of fluctuations in prices [3][5] - Egg prices are expected to continue their downward trend until at least March next year, driven by increased supply from new laying hens and a decrease in demand post-promotional events [4][5]

Report Information - Report Title: Egg Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [1] - Key Words: Egg Market, Supply and Demand, Price Forecast Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: As of the end of October, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.359 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%, ending 9 consecutive months of growth. It is expected that the egg - laying hen inventory will remain high in the first quarter of the fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [6][22][38]. - Demand side: In October, egg sales were weak year - on - year and did not show a month - on - month recovery. In November, demand is unlikely to be concentrated, and overall demand is weak due to factors such as the substitution of vegetables and pork and market pessimism [6][33][38]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in November. For futures, the upside is limited, and it is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset. The fundamental inflection point may appear as early as the beginning of next year [6][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Price - Spot: In October, the spot price bottomed out and rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in November as the market waits for accelerated elimination to balance high inventory [8]. - Futures: The main contract switched to the 12 - contract. The price followed the spot trend. It is recommended to treat the current rise as a rebound and consider short - selling at high prices. The fundamental improvement may take a long time [9]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Elimination of Laying Hens - Price: In October, the average daily price of Hy - Line Brown culled hens was 4.39 yuan/jin, continuing to decline from September and at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The price has been trending down since August [10][18]. - Quantity: As of October 30, the weekly culling volume has been stable in September - October, slightly higher than the previous three years. The culling age has advanced, and it is estimated that the culling volume will remain stable or slightly increase in November [18][20]. 2.2 Inventory and Replenishment - Inventory: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. It is expected to remain high in the early fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [22]. - Replenishment: In October, the monthly output of layer chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, a decrease from September and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024. The replenishment enthusiasm may be affected by feed costs in the future [23]. - Laying Rate: In late October, the laying rate was about 91.94%, following the seasonal pattern [25]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - In October, the breeding profit was weak, at a very low level compared with the same period in previous years. It is expected to continue to operate at a low level in November [29][32]. 3. Demand Side - Sales Volume: In October, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas continued to be weak year - on - year and did not show a month - on - month recovery. In November, demand is expected to remain weak [6][33][38]. - Inventory: As of October 30, the inventory in the circulation link was at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory was still high, reflecting the weak demand this year [36]. - Substitute Prices: The pig price is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the fourth quarter, currently at a low level. Vegetable prices are expected to rise seasonally in November - December, which may support egg prices [36][37]. 4. Later Outlook and Strategy - Spot: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in November [40]. - Futures: It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset. For options, a wide - straddle double - selling strategy is recommended. The risk lies in the unexpected rise of spot prices in low - price areas [40]. - Strategy: For farmers and spot traders, the spot price may fluctuate at a low level in November. For futures speculators, it is recommended to use interval rolling short - selling operations and pay attention to the spot price in low - price areas [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of eggs is strong while the demand is weak, and the egg price is still under pressure. The egg futures and spot prices have repeatedly hit new lows, and the egg - laying hen farming industry may enter a long - term loss stage. It is recommended to hold the short position of out - of - the - money call options for near - month contracts. The mid - to - long - term capacity reduction process will dominate the probability of market reversal [5][6] - The main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, with a reference operating range of 2800 - 3200. In terms of options, out - of - the money call options can be sold [6] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - long Views and Strategies - The spot price of eggs has stopped falling, with the main - producing area's average price at 2.91 yuan/jin, a 1.75% increase from last week. The national in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, with great supply pressure. The short - term egg price has touched a new low, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm has increased, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [5][13] - In September 2025, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was about 1.313 billion, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease and an 8.87% year - on - year increase. The number of newly - opened egg - laying hens decreased, and the number of culled chickens increased, resulting in a slight decline in the in - production egg - laying hen inventory. It is expected that the in - production egg - laying hen inventory in October will continue to decrease slightly, but the supply surplus is still the main theme [5] - Considering the current egg - laying hen inventory and structure, the supply side still strongly suppresses the price. It is expected that the egg price will continue to be under pressure. In October, the demand weakens, and the egg - laying hen farming industry may enter a long - term loss stage [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The average spot price of eggs in the main - producing areas is 2.91 yuan/jin, a 0.05 - yuan increase from last week, with a 1.75% increase. The low - price area reports 2.53 yuan/jin. The overall supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the egg price is still under pressure [13] 3. Supply Side - In September 2025, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was about 1.313 billion. The number of newly - opened egg - laying hens decreased, and the number of culled chickens increased, leading to a slight decline in the in - production egg - laying hen inventory [23] - In September, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chicken seedlings of 15 representative enterprises was 37.8 million, a 2.83% month - on - month decrease. It is expected that the chicken - seedling price will still have a slight downward risk next month, with an average monthly price of about 2.85 yuan/feather [29] - This week, the total出栏量 of old hens in 19 representative markets in 10 key producing areas was 609,400, a 1.55% month - on - month increase. The increase in the出栏 volume of old hens has slowed down, and the average slaughter age of culled chickens this week is 497 days [37] - The production - link inventory has increased significantly. Although the storage environment has improved, there is still a bearish sentiment in the market, which is negative for the egg price [42] 4. Demand Side - The egg price shows obvious seasonal characteristics within a year, mainly due to the supply - demand relationship, especially the short - term changes are mainly reflected in the demand side [57] 5. Cost Side - The price fluctuations of corn and soybean meal directly affect the price of egg - laying hen feed raw materials. This week, the egg - laying hen farming cost is 3.41 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan month - on - month decrease, with a 0.29% decrease [65] 6. Cost and Profit - This week, the egg - laying hen farming cost is 3.41 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan month - on - month decrease, with a 0.29% decrease. The farming profit is - 0.50 yuan/jin, a 0.06 - yuan month - on - month increase, with a 10.71% increase. It is expected that the farming profit in October will decline synchronously [65][73]

Core Insights - The egg market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main futures contract rising over 3% on October 24 [1] Price Trends - The average price of eggs in major production areas was 2.83 yuan per jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan from the previous day, while the average price in major sales areas was 3.04 yuan per jin, up 0.03 yuan [2] - Inventory levels have slightly decreased, with the average inventory in the production segment at 1.03 days, down 0.01 days, and in the circulation segment at 1.1 days, down 0.02 days [2] Production Data - As of the end of September, the monthly stock of laying hens was approximately 1.368 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2% from 1.365 billion at the end of August and 1.356 billion at the end of July, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.0% from 1.29 billion [2] Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the high inventory of laying hens and the cautious purchasing behavior of traders are currently pressuring egg prices, although the market's willingness to replenish stocks may support long-term prices [3] - Jianxin Futures notes that despite current prices being at historical lows, high supply levels will persist due to ongoing culling processes, suggesting a bearish outlook on short-term price movements [3]