专题报告 2025-11-19 豆粕：底部区间已现，突破需更多驱动 报告要点： USDA 在 11 月报告中再度下调全球大豆新作供应，全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需 增，全球大豆预测年度库销比从 2024 年 10 月的 33%落回到目前的 28.94%，这为全球大豆提供 了底部支撑，但同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情。边际下调的 产量主要来源于美国及其他较小的产量国，对大豆贸易流影响并不直接，大豆突破成本区间需 要来自南美种植问题的进一步驱动。近期巴西大豆可出口量下降，美豆交易需求回暖，进口成 本有支撑。但在巴西 12 月丰水季节来临之后，市场容易交易南美丰产预期，进口成本可能再 度下跌。国内现实库存压力大，随着预期去库榨利会逐步回暖，但由于预期去库力度不足，可 能不会有太高的榨利水平。豆粕未来即在进口成本与榨利的反复涨落中形成区间震荡走势。 斯小伟 农产品分析师 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 农产品研究|油脂油料 一、全球大豆新作供应转换为减产格局，但全球大豆库销比仍较高 11 月 ...

Report Overview - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The oils and fats market opened high and closed low, continuing to decline, dragged down by the inventory build - up in palm oil producing areas and the uncertainty of biodiesel policies. The domestic supply of oils and fats is sufficient, and the spot prices fell with the market, while the basis quotes remained stable. For palm oil, there is a strong production increase expectation in the main producing areas, with slowing export data and expected inventory increases at home and abroad, but there are long - term expectations of production cuts and B50. After November, the arrival of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and with the decline in oil mill crushing volume, soybean oil is likely to turn to inventory reduction. The spot basis quotes of soybean oil will have limited short - term fluctuations due to the poor soybean crushing profit of factories. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the development of China - Canada relations. The domestic spot basis is stable and slightly strong, continuing the inventory reduction trend. In the short - term, it is regarded as a volatile adjustment, and the lower technical support should be noted. In the medium - to long - term, the idea is to buy on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China region, the basis of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from October to November is OI2601 + 390, and from December to January is OI2601 + 320; the basis of Grade 1 rapeseed oil from October to November is OI2601 + 480, and from December to January is OI2601 + 400. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market: in November, it is Y2501 + 200; from December to January, it is Y2501 + 220; from February to May, it is Y2605 + 300; from April to July, it is Y2505 + 220. The quotation of palm oil from Dongguan traders is temporarily stable, with the price of 24 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan being 01 - 80 [7]. - **Market Analysis and Suggestions**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment state, and attention should be paid to the lower technical support. In the medium - to long - term, the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. 3.2. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture has suspended the release of weekly export sales reports and daily sales announcements due to the government shutdown. Analysts estimate that the weekly export sales of US soybeans for the week ending October 23, 2025, are between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons [9]. - Before the summit between China and the US, COFCO, a Chinese state - owned enterprise, purchased three ships of US soybeans, totaling 180,000 tons, to be shipped from the US West Coast from December to January next year [9]. - Rabobank expects the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, slightly higher than the current forecast of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [9]. - According to data from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX), the export pace of Brazilian soybeans in October so far is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. From October 1 to 24, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans was 5.415 million tons, compared with 4.71 million tons in October last year. The average daily export volume in October so far is 300,843 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [9][10]. 3.3. Data Overview - As of October 27, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in the state of Paraná, Brazil, in the 2025/26 season is 68%, higher than 52% a week ago. The excellent - good rate of soybeans is 98%, and the proportion of average - rated soybeans is 2%. Last week, the excellent - good rate was 99% [18]. - As of October 29, the inventory of imported soybeans in major ports is about 8.3 million tons, compared with 7.7 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7.4 million tons. The cumulative arrival in this month is 8.2 million tons. According to data tracked and counted by the China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in October 2025 is 8.8 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the forecast arrival volume of 8.6 million tons last month, a month - on - month change of 2.18%; an increase of 2.5 million tons compared with the arrival volume of 6.3 million tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 39.44% [18].