Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global soybean supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped to 28.94%, providing a bottom support for global soybeans. However, the ratio is still relatively high year - on - year, not enough to generate a profitable CBOT soybean planting market. The marginal reduction in production mainly comes from the US and other small - scale producing countries, having no direct impact on the soybean trade flow. The soybean price needs further impetus from South American planting problems to break through the cost range. The price of soymeal will fluctuate within a range due to the repeated changes in import costs and crushing margins [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean New - Crop Supply Turns to a Production - Reduction Pattern, but the Global Soybean Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Remains High In November, the USDA forecast further lowered the global soybean new - crop production by about 4 million tons, mainly due to the reduction in India, Ukraine, and the US. After the November adjustment, the 25/26 global soybean production and consumption are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%, providing bottom support but not enough for high CBOT soybean planting profits. The US soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom range, and there is strong pressure around the cost of 1180 - 1200 cents per bushel. The marginal production reduction has little direct impact on the soybean trade flow, and a scenario of high soybean crushing margins may require further problems in South American planting [3]. 3.2 China's Purchase of US Soybeans Pressures Domestic Crushing Margins China bought at least 14 batches (about 840,000 tons) of US soybeans on Monday, and the purchase may continue. The current domestic soybean inventory is high, reaching about 9.9 million tons as of last weekend. Although the previous procurement has gradually declined and there may be inventory reduction from November to the end of February next year, with the increase in purchases of US soybeans for December and January shipments and the surplus from Brazil's bumper harvest, the domestic port soybean inventory may be around 4 million tons in March next year, remaining at a certain level [8]. 3.3 The Weather in South America is Normal, and Soymeal is Expected to Oscillate at the Bottom Range The US soybean price will continue to oscillate within a range, with strong support at 950 - 1000 cents per bushel and limited upside due to abundant global supply. The Brazilian soybean offer premium has declined. Recently, the exportable volume of Brazilian soybeans has decreased, and the demand for US soybeans has recovered, supporting the import cost. In the medium - term, after Brazil's rainy season in December, the market may trade on the expectation of a South American bumper harvest, causing the import cost to decline again, but with a clear bottom. The domestic crushing margin will gradually improve with expected inventory reduction, but the improvement may not be significant. Therefore, soymeal will oscillate within a range due to the changes in import costs and crushing margins [10].

Report Overview - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The oils and fats market opened high and closed low, continuing to decline, dragged down by the inventory build - up in palm oil producing areas and the uncertainty of biodiesel policies. The domestic supply of oils and fats is sufficient, and the spot prices fell with the market, while the basis quotes remained stable. For palm oil, there is a strong production increase expectation in the main producing areas, with slowing export data and expected inventory increases at home and abroad, but there are long - term expectations of production cuts and B50. After November, the arrival of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and with the decline in oil mill crushing volume, soybean oil is likely to turn to inventory reduction. The spot basis quotes of soybean oil will have limited short - term fluctuations due to the poor soybean crushing profit of factories. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the development of China - Canada relations. The domestic spot basis is stable and slightly strong, continuing the inventory reduction trend. In the short - term, it is regarded as a volatile adjustment, and the lower technical support should be noted. In the medium - to long - term, the idea is to buy on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China region, the basis of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from October to November is OI2601 + 390, and from December to January is OI2601 + 320; the basis of Grade 1 rapeseed oil from October to November is OI2601 + 480, and from December to January is OI2601 + 400. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market: in November, it is Y2501 + 200; from December to January, it is Y2501 + 220; from February to May, it is Y2605 + 300; from April to July, it is Y2505 + 220. The quotation of palm oil from Dongguan traders is temporarily stable, with the price of 24 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan being 01 - 80 [7]. - **Market Analysis and Suggestions**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment state, and attention should be paid to the lower technical support. In the medium - to long - term, the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. 3.2. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture has suspended the release of weekly export sales reports and daily sales announcements due to the government shutdown. Analysts estimate that the weekly export sales of US soybeans for the week ending October 23, 2025, are between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons [9]. - Before the summit between China and the US, COFCO, a Chinese state - owned enterprise, purchased three ships of US soybeans, totaling 180,000 tons, to be shipped from the US West Coast from December to January next year [9]. - Rabobank expects the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, slightly higher than the current forecast of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [9]. - According to data from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX), the export pace of Brazilian soybeans in October so far is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. From October 1 to 24, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans was 5.415 million tons, compared with 4.71 million tons in October last year. The average daily export volume in October so far is 300,843 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [9][10]. 3.3. Data Overview - As of October 27, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in the state of Paraná, Brazil, in the 2025/26 season is 68%, higher than 52% a week ago. The excellent - good rate of soybeans is 98%, and the proportion of average - rated soybeans is 2%. Last week, the excellent - good rate was 99% [18]. - As of October 29, the inventory of imported soybeans in major ports is about 8.3 million tons, compared with 7.7 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7.4 million tons. The cumulative arrival in this month is 8.2 million tons. According to data tracked and counted by the China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in October 2025 is 8.8 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the forecast arrival volume of 8.6 million tons last month, a month - on - month change of 2.18%; an increase of 2.5 million tons compared with the arrival volume of 6.3 million tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 39.44% [18].