01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润及库存 02 期现市场 05 需求端 蛋白粕周报 2025/12/13 天气暂无明显问题， 国内传到港延迟 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 03 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 国际大豆：本周美豆持续下跌，虽有来自中国的购买及美国国内库销比偏低提供支撑，但全球大豆库销比较高及美豆销售进度仍偏慢施压上 方空间。巴西升贴水调涨8美分/蒲左右，大豆到港成本下跌约60元/吨，2月发船巴西大豆成本价约为3624元/吨。巴西大豆种植区降雨恢 复，未来两周降雨充沛，前期干旱的南部种植区也迎来降雨，然而阿根廷大部分产区预计降雨量较少，12月阿根廷产区降雨同比偏少，不过 阿根廷的重点还是关注1-3月生长季节，需持续跟踪。当前在南美丰产预期下USDA预测全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需增，全球 大豆预测年度库销比从2024年10月的33%落回到目前的28.94%，这为全球大豆提供了底部支撑，但因为同比仍较高，尚不足以产生CBOT大豆 盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally lowered, with total production equal to total demand. Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, indicating that the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on crushing margins. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range with cost support and pressured crushing margins [9][10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans traded in a range. China's continuous purchases and low domestic stock - to - sales ratio provided support, but the high global stock - to - sales ratio limited the upside. Brazil's soybean premium increased by about 15 cents per bushel, raising the cost of imported soybeans. Brazil's main growing areas were drier than normal in November, but rainfall is expected to recover in early December, though the southeast region may see less rain. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand, with the global stock - to - sales ratio dropping from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom - line support for global soybeans. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to remain volatile [9] - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, domestic soybean meal spot prices and basis fluctuated, and the futures market followed the cost with narrow - range movements. Oil mills' profit from soybean purchases was slightly in the red. Domestic soybean meal sales were decent, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were higher than the same period last year, and the de - stocking process was slow. As of November 25, institutional statistics showed 876,000 tons of soybean purchases in September, 773,000 tons in October, 652,000 tons in November, and 465,000 tons in December. Current purchase plans suggest that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline, and with high - level提货, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The core driving logic is the same as the core view of the report. No specific strategy is recommended for arbitrage [11] 2. Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Prices**: The document presents historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18] - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Charts show the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21] - **Price Spreads**: Charts display various price spreads, including soybean meal 01 - 05, 03 - 05, 05 - rapeseed meal 05, and 01 - rapeseed meal 01 [22][23] - **Fund Positions**: Charts show the net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][27] 3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Charts present data on US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate [31][32] - **Weather Conditions**: There is a risk of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. Charts show precipitation in Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and South America [34][37][39] - **US Soybean Processing and Export**: Charts show US soybean processing profit, monthly processing volume, NOPA soybean oil inventory, and US soybean export progress, including signed export contracts and shipment volume to China [45][48][50] - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Charts show monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [52][53] - **China's Oil Mill Processing**: Charts show the processing volume of soybeans and rapeseeds in major Chinese oil mills [54][55] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts show the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills [58][59] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory and forecast of soybean meal in major coastal oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills [61][62] - **Protein Meal Processing Profit**: Charts show the processing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the processing profit of imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [63][64] 5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Charts show the cumulative sales volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [66] - **Breeding Profit**: Charts show the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the profit per feather of white - feather broilers [67][68]

专题报告 2025-11-19 豆粕：底部区间已现，突破需更多驱动 报告要点： USDA 在 11 月报告中再度下调全球大豆新作供应，全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需 增，全球大豆预测年度库销比从 2024 年 10 月的 33%落回到目前的 28.94%，这为全球大豆提供 了底部支撑，但同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情。边际下调的 产量主要来源于美国及其他较小的产量国，对大豆贸易流影响并不直接，大豆突破成本区间需 要来自南美种植问题的进一步驱动。近期巴西大豆可出口量下降，美豆交易需求回暖，进口成 本有支撑。但在巴西 12 月丰水季节来临之后，市场容易交易南美丰产预期，进口成本可能再 度下跌。国内现实库存压力大，随着预期去库榨利会逐步回暖，但由于预期去库力度不足，可 能不会有太高的榨利水平。豆粕未来即在进口成本与榨利的反复涨落中形成区间震荡走势。 斯小伟 农产品分析师 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 农产品研究|油脂油料 一、全球大豆新作供应转换为减产格局，但全球大豆库销比仍较高 11 月 ...