Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Report's Core Viewpoint - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [9][10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International soybeans: US soybeans continued to decline this week. Although purchases from China and a low domestic stocks - to - use ratio in the US provided support, a high global stocks - to - use ratio and slow sales progress limited the upside. Brazilian soybean premiums increased by about 8 cents per bushel, and the arrival cost of soybeans decreased by about 60 yuan/ton. The cost of Brazilian soybeans shipped in February is about 3,624 yuan/ton. Rainfall in Brazilian soybean - growing areas has recovered, but most areas in Argentina expect less rainfall. The USDA forecasts a shift in the global soybean supply - demand pattern, with the global stocks - to - use ratio falling from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom support [9]. - Domestic double - meal: There were delays in domestic arrivals this week. Soybean meal spot prices first fell and then rose, with basis fluctuating. Futures prices were volatile, and oil mills' purchasing profits showed a small loss. Domestic soybean meal transactions were fair, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were higher year - on - year, and the de - stocking progress was slow. As of December 9, the purchased volumes for September, October, November, and December were 876, 773, 620, and 497 tons respectively. The current purchasing progress indicates that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline, and the high level of domestic soybean meal提货 provides some support for the domestic soybean basis [9]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The report did not provide specific suggestions for arbitrage trading [11]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot price: The document provides the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18]. - Basis of the main contract: It shows the historical basis trends of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21]. - Spread: The document presents historical spread trends such as soybean meal 01 - 05, soybean meal 03 - 05, soybean meal 05 - rapeseed meal 05, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01 [22][23]. - Fund position: It shows the historical net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][27]. 3. Supply Side - US soybean planting progress: The document provides historical data on US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate [31][32]. - Weather conditions: There is information on rainfall in Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing areas, and the possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January is mentioned [34][36][37]. - US soybean export progress: The document shows the historical data of US soybeans' total export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the annual sales completion rate, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments to China [49][50]. - China's oilseed imports: It presents the historical monthly import volumes and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [52][53]. - China's oil mill crushing: The document shows the historical soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [54][55]. 4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed inventory: It shows the historical port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills in China [58][59]. - Protein meal inventory: The document presents the historical inventory and forecasts of soybean meal in coastal major oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills in China [61][62]. - Protein meal crushing profit: It shows the historical crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [63][64]. 5. Demand Side - Protein meal demand: The document shows the historical cumulative transactions of soybean meal in major oil mills during the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [65][66]. - Breeding profit: It shows the historical average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the historical breeding profit of white - feather broilers [67][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally lowered, with total production equal to total demand. Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, indicating that the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on crushing margins. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range with cost support and pressured crushing margins [9][10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans traded in a range. China's continuous purchases and low domestic stock - to - sales ratio provided support, but the high global stock - to - sales ratio limited the upside. Brazil's soybean premium increased by about 15 cents per bushel, raising the cost of imported soybeans. Brazil's main growing areas were drier than normal in November, but rainfall is expected to recover in early December, though the southeast region may see less rain. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand, with the global stock - to - sales ratio dropping from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom - line support for global soybeans. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to remain volatile [9] - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, domestic soybean meal spot prices and basis fluctuated, and the futures market followed the cost with narrow - range movements. Oil mills' profit from soybean purchases was slightly in the red. Domestic soybean meal sales were decent, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were higher than the same period last year, and the de - stocking process was slow. As of November 25, institutional statistics showed 876,000 tons of soybean purchases in September, 773,000 tons in October, 652,000 tons in November, and 465,000 tons in December. Current purchase plans suggest that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline, and with high - level提货, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The core driving logic is the same as the core view of the report. No specific strategy is recommended for arbitrage [11] 2. Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Prices**: The document presents historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18] - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Charts show the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21] - **Price Spreads**: Charts display various price spreads, including soybean meal 01 - 05, 03 - 05, 05 - rapeseed meal 05, and 01 - rapeseed meal 01 [22][23] - **Fund Positions**: Charts show the net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][27] 3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Charts present data on US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate [31][32] - **Weather Conditions**: There is a risk of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. Charts show precipitation in Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and South America [34][37][39] - **US Soybean Processing and Export**: Charts show US soybean processing profit, monthly processing volume, NOPA soybean oil inventory, and US soybean export progress, including signed export contracts and shipment volume to China [45][48][50] - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Charts show monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [52][53] - **China's Oil Mill Processing**: Charts show the processing volume of soybeans and rapeseeds in major Chinese oil mills [54][55] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts show the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills [58][59] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory and forecast of soybean meal in major coastal oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills [61][62] - **Protein Meal Processing Profit**: Charts show the processing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the processing profit of imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [63][64] 5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Charts show the cumulative sales volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [66] - **Breeding Profit**: Charts show the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the profit per feather of white - feather broilers [67][68]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global soybean supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped to 28.94%, providing a bottom support for global soybeans. However, the ratio is still relatively high year - on - year, not enough to generate a profitable CBOT soybean planting market. The marginal reduction in production mainly comes from the US and other small - scale producing countries, having no direct impact on the soybean trade flow. The soybean price needs further impetus from South American planting problems to break through the cost range. The price of soymeal will fluctuate within a range due to the repeated changes in import costs and crushing margins [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean New - Crop Supply Turns to a Production - Reduction Pattern, but the Global Soybean Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Remains High In November, the USDA forecast further lowered the global soybean new - crop production by about 4 million tons, mainly due to the reduction in India, Ukraine, and the US. After the November adjustment, the 25/26 global soybean production and consumption are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%, providing bottom support but not enough for high CBOT soybean planting profits. The US soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom range, and there is strong pressure around the cost of 1180 - 1200 cents per bushel. The marginal production reduction has little direct impact on the soybean trade flow, and a scenario of high soybean crushing margins may require further problems in South American planting [3]. 3.2 China's Purchase of US Soybeans Pressures Domestic Crushing Margins China bought at least 14 batches (about 840,000 tons) of US soybeans on Monday, and the purchase may continue. The current domestic soybean inventory is high, reaching about 9.9 million tons as of last weekend. Although the previous procurement has gradually declined and there may be inventory reduction from November to the end of February next year, with the increase in purchases of US soybeans for December and January shipments and the surplus from Brazil's bumper harvest, the domestic port soybean inventory may be around 4 million tons in March next year, remaining at a certain level [8]. 3.3 The Weather in South America is Normal, and Soymeal is Expected to Oscillate at the Bottom Range The US soybean price will continue to oscillate within a range, with strong support at 950 - 1000 cents per bushel and limited upside due to abundant global supply. The Brazilian soybean offer premium has declined. Recently, the exportable volume of Brazilian soybeans has decreased, and the demand for US soybeans has recovered, supporting the import cost. In the medium - term, after Brazil's rainy season in December, the market may trade on the expectation of a South American bumper harvest, causing the import cost to decline again, but with a clear bottom. The domestic crushing margin will gradually improve with expected inventory reduction, but the improvement may not be significant. Therefore, soymeal will oscillate within a range due to the changes in import costs and crushing margins [10].