1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low due to the obvious increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil after July and the expected increase in production in major northern hemisphere producers like India in the new season [8]. - The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline as the domestic import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, the out - of - quota spot import profit has remained at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures price valuation is still high [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The international raw sugar price rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was 16.47 cents per pound, up 0.2 cents per pound from the previous week, a 1.23% increase. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,664 yuan per ton, up 91 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.63% increase. Various spreads also showed different trends [9]. - **Industry News**: In the second half of July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease; produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease. As of the week of August 13, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 76 from 80 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased by 259,800 tons, a 7.26% decline [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to short at high levels with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 within three months [8][9]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, London white sugar monthly spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to show the historical trends of various spreads [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - The report shows charts of national sugar production, import volume, sales volume, and industrial inventory, covering monthly and cumulative data for multiple seasons, to reflect the supply and demand situation in the domestic sugar market [41][44][49][52]. 3.4. International Market Situation - The report provides charts of CFTC positions, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil, India, and Thailand, and Brazilian sugar shipment volume, to show the international sugar market situation [57][60][65][68][71].

Core Viewpoint - The sugar futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight weekly decline, while domestic consumption remains robust despite seasonal trends [1][3]. Market Overview - As of May 23, 2025, the main sugar futures contract closed at 5833 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of -0.44% [1]. - The opening price for the week was 5850 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 5882 yuan/ton and a low of 5826 yuan/ton [1]. Import Costs - The cost of importing Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 4679 yuan/ton (within quota, 15% tariff) or 5987 yuan/ton (outside quota, 50% tariff) [2]. - The cost of importing Thai raw sugar is about 4700 yuan/ton (within quota, 15% tariff) or 6015 yuan/ton (outside quota, 50% tariff) [2]. Import Statistics - In April 2025, China's sugar import volume was 134,847.788 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 94.89% and a year-on-year increase of 148.46% [2]. Supply and Demand Insights - The Brazilian sugarcane harvest is progressing well, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices, while domestic consumption remains strong [3]. - Current domestic sugar production is expected to increase by approximately 1.3 million tons compared to the previous year, with good sales in April leading to a reduction in industrial inventory [3]. - The market is entering a pure sales phase with the onset of summer demand, which may support prices despite international raw sugar pressures [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the sugar industry is "shockingly bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend strength of sugar is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 17.74 cents per pound, with a year-on-year increase of 0.33; the mainstream spot price is 6,150 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 10; the futures main contract price is 5,863 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 14 [1] - The 91 spread is 135 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 4; the 15 spread is 40 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1; the mainstream spot basis is 287 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 24 [1] Macro and Industry News - High-frequency information shows that Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower year-on-year; the USDA expects Brazil's sugar production to increase by 2% in the 25/26 season; Brazil exported 1.55 million tons of sugar in April, a year-on-year decrease of 18% [1] - As of the end of April, India produced 25.69 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season; China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixes from January to April decreased significantly [1] Domestic Market - The CAOC expects China's sugar production to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons in the 24/25 season; in the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of April, China produced 11.11 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, a year-on-year increase of 1.15 million tons; cumulative sales reached 7.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 million tons, and the cumulative sales rate was 65.2% [2] - China imported 280,000 tons of sugar from January to April, a year-on-year decrease of 970,000 tons [2] International Market - The ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [2] - As of May 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season decreased by 33 percentage points year-on-year; cumulative sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1 million tons; the cumulative MIX decreased by 1.71 percentage points year-on-year [2] - As of May 15, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 million tons [2] - As of April 9, Thailand produced 10.05 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, a year-on-year increase of 1.31 million tons [2]