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五矿期货农产品早报-20250609
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 00:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as rainfall in the US, Brazilian soybean sales, and trade relations. The new - year US soybean may be in a process of bottom - building, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation with external cost increase and domestic supply pressure [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has short - term support from low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts, but the price is under pressure if the production continues to recover. The overall trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile [6][7][8]. - The sugar market may weaken in the future as the international supply situation eases and domestic imports are expected to increase [10][11]. - The cotton market is expected to have a short - term volatile trend with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [13][15]. - The egg market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term, and the trading strategy is to short on rallies for the near - month contracts [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weak in the short term, with near - month contracts having limited decline due to the discount, and the far - month contracts waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: US soybean rose slightly on Friday due to Sino - US contact and local drought. Domestic soybean meal spot was stable or slightly up on the weekend, with high supply and weak trading. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Future rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is mixed, and Brazilian soybean premiums may rise. The 25/26 US soybean area is decreasing, making the total output likely to decline. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory is low due to previous delayed start - up [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 09 soybean meal contract, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market at the lower end of the cost range and whether domestic pressure and bullish factors are fully traded at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May and early June. Brazilian soybean sales are delayed. The US soybean yield and planting area estimates are released. The palm oil inventory in some regions is low, and India cut the palm oil import tariff [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market is expected to be volatile, with bearish factors such as the decline of the crude oil center and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy, and bullish factors such as low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong on Friday. Spot sugar prices in different regions had different trends. Brazilian sugar exports to China increased in May, and the waiting and in - transit volume to China remained unchanged [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar supply may be easing, and domestic sugar prices are likely to weaken as imports increase [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded on Friday. The spot price increased slightly, and the spinning and weaving factory start - up rates decreased slightly. The national cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Egg prices were stable or slightly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement. The cold - storage egg reserves increased as prices fell [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be stable and weak. For the near - month contracts, short on rallies, and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts when the position is large [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: Pig prices were mainly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and weak terminal demand due to rising temperatures [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month pig contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - month contracts wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [21].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250606
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 02:29
Report Summary Core Views - The soybean market is complex. US soybean prices may form a bottom - building process in the new year, but breaking through the bottom range requires further drivers. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but inventory is currently low due to delayed startup. For 09 contract soybean meal, it is in a situation where external costs are likely to rise and domestic pressure is gradually increasing [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market shows that Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May. If palm oil production continues to recover rapidly, oil prices will face pressure. The overall trend of oils is expected to be volatile [7][8][9]. - The sugar market indicates that the most tense supply stage in the international market may have passed. With the increase in future imports, the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken [11][12]. - The cotton market suggests that the fundamental situation of cotton has slightly improved, but the overall commodity market sentiment is bearish, and short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [14][15][16]. - The egg market has stable supply, and the current old - hen culling is in the initial stage. It is difficult to offset the pressure of new production and the off - season consumption. The short - term egg price is expected to be weakly stable [17][18]. - The pig market has sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the short term, the downward space of spot and futures prices is limited, and the long - term strategy is to sell on rallies [20][21]. Trading Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: For 09 and other far - month soybean meal contracts, when the price is at the lower cost range, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market; when it is at the upper range, focus on domestic pressure and whether the bullish factors have been fully priced in [5]. - **Oils**: Given the bearish and bullish factors, it is expected that the oils will mainly fluctuate [9]. - **Sugar**: Considering the international and domestic situations, the future sugar price is likely to decline [12]. - **Cotton**: It is expected that short - term cotton prices will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Eggs**: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies for near - month contracts. For medium - and long - term contracts, wait for the accumulation of contradictions [18]. - **Pigs**: Do not go long in the short term, and there is no need to chase short positions. Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long term [21]. Important Information - **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - US soybean prices rose slightly on Thursday. The US - China presidential call brought optimistic trade sentiment, and good planting and weather conditions limited the increase. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with high supply due to high crushing volume [2]. - In the next two weeks, rainfall in most US soybean - producing areas will be favorable, but there will be less rainfall in Iowa and the north. Brazilian soybean premiums have increased recently, offsetting the decline in US soybean prices, and the cost of imported soybeans remains stable [3]. - The area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season will decrease, and the total output may be easily reduced due to yield fluctuations [3]. - **Oils** - From May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.53%, and exports are expected to increase by 17.9% [7]. - A commodity research institution estimates that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's will be 19 million tons [7]. - The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil in May indicates a slight inventory build - up, but low inventories in Indonesia, India, and China provide some support for palm oil prices. If production continues to recover rapidly, oil prices will face pressure [8]. - **Sugar** - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the September contract was 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous trading day [11]. - In May, China's single - month sugar sales reached 869,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,900 tons; the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons; the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 72.69%, a year - on - year increase of 6.52 percentage points [11]. - **Cotton** - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the September contract was 13,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day [14]. - As of June 1, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 66%, an increase of 14 percentage points from the previous week, slightly lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The budding rate was 8%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous week, maintaining a normal level [14]. - **Eggs** - The national egg prices were mostly stable, with individual minor adjustments. The average price in the main production areas remained at 2.84 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and the digestion speed in some downstream markets slowed down slightly. Most areas had little inventory pressure [17]. - **Pigs** - Domestic pig prices mainly fell. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.12 yuan to 14.17 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped by 0.1 yuan to 14.01 yuan/kg. Market supply is sufficient, and downstream demand support is average [20].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250526
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 02:12
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics. The new - year US soybeans may be in a process of bottom - building, and the domestic soybean meal market is in a situation where external costs are likely to rise while domestic pressure is gradually increasing [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has support from low inventories in some regions, but if the production continues to recover rapidly, the oil price will still be under pressure. The overall trend of oils is expected to be volatile [12][13]. - The sugar market may face a weakening trend as the international supply situation eases and domestic imports are expected to increase [15][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term due to factors such as positive macro - news and a small decrease in downstream operating rates [18][19]. - The egg market is under pressure with increasing supply, and a bearish view is maintained on near - month contracts [21][22]. - The short - term trend of the pig market is restricted, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [24][25]. 3. Summaries by Directory Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: US soybeans closed down on Friday due to concerns about exports. The weather in the US soybean - growing areas has disturbances, which may affect sowing. The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuates slightly, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing [2][3]. - **Supply Forecast**: According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The oil mill's soybean crushing volume last week was 2.21 million tons, and it is expected to be 2.25 million tons this week [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 09 contract of soybean meal, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market at the lower end of the cost range and whether domestic pressure and bullish factors have been fully traded at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Market Situation**: Malaysian palm oil production has increased, and exports show different trends in different periods. The domestic spot basis of oils has a slight downward trend [6][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oils market is expected to be volatile. Bearish factors include the decline of the crude oil center and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy. Bullish factors are the low inventories in some regions [13]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Friday. The number of ships waiting to load sugar and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports decreased [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar supply situation has eased, and domestic imports are expected to increase, so the sugar price is likely to weaken [16]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly on Friday. The downstream operating rates decreased slightly, and the cotton inventory decreased slightly [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to positive macro - news and a small decrease in downstream operating rates, the cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and may fill the upper gap [19]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: The domestic egg price first fell and then stabilized over the weekend, with some areas rising. The supply of newly - laying hens continues to increase, and the demand is mostly stable [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds for near - month contracts such as 06 and 07, and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts such as 09 [22]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic pig price mostly rose over the weekend, with some areas having a resurgence of secondary fattening and a cautious attitude from the breeding side [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Do not go long in the short - term, and there is no need to chase short positions recently. Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rebounds in the future [25].