Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as rainfall in the US, Brazilian soybean sales, and trade relations. The new - year US soybean may be in a process of bottom - building, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation with external cost increase and domestic supply pressure [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has short - term support from low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts, but the price is under pressure if the production continues to recover. The overall trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile [6][7][8]. - The sugar market may weaken in the future as the international supply situation eases and domestic imports are expected to increase [10][11]. - The cotton market is expected to have a short - term volatile trend with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [13][15]. - The egg market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term, and the trading strategy is to short on rallies for the near - month contracts [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weak in the short term, with near - month contracts having limited decline due to the discount, and the far - month contracts waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: US soybean rose slightly on Friday due to Sino - US contact and local drought. Domestic soybean meal spot was stable or slightly up on the weekend, with high supply and weak trading. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Future rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is mixed, and Brazilian soybean premiums may rise. The 25/26 US soybean area is decreasing, making the total output likely to decline. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory is low due to previous delayed start - up [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 09 soybean meal contract, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market at the lower end of the cost range and whether domestic pressure and bullish factors are fully traded at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May and early June. Brazilian soybean sales are delayed. The US soybean yield and planting area estimates are released. The palm oil inventory in some regions is low, and India cut the palm oil import tariff [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market is expected to be volatile, with bearish factors such as the decline of the crude oil center and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy, and bullish factors such as low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong on Friday. Spot sugar prices in different regions had different trends. Brazilian sugar exports to China increased in May, and the waiting and in - transit volume to China remained unchanged [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar supply may be easing, and domestic sugar prices are likely to weaken as imports increase [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded on Friday. The spot price increased slightly, and the spinning and weaving factory start - up rates decreased slightly. The national cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Egg prices were stable or slightly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement. The cold - storage egg reserves increased as prices fell [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be stable and weak. For the near - month contracts, short on rallies, and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts when the position is large [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: Pig prices were mainly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and weak terminal demand due to rising temperatures [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month pig contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - month contracts wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [21].

Report Summary Core Views - The soybean market is complex. US soybean prices may form a bottom - building process in the new year, but breaking through the bottom range requires further drivers. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but inventory is currently low due to delayed startup. For 09 contract soybean meal, it is in a situation where external costs are likely to rise and domestic pressure is gradually increasing [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market shows that Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May. If palm oil production continues to recover rapidly, oil prices will face pressure. The overall trend of oils is expected to be volatile [7][8][9]. - The sugar market indicates that the most tense supply stage in the international market may have passed. With the increase in future imports, the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken [11][12]. - The cotton market suggests that the fundamental situation of cotton has slightly improved, but the overall commodity market sentiment is bearish, and short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [14][15][16]. - The egg market has stable supply, and the current old - hen culling is in the initial stage. It is difficult to offset the pressure of new production and the off - season consumption. The short - term egg price is expected to be weakly stable [17][18]. - The pig market has sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the short term, the downward space of spot and futures prices is limited, and the long - term strategy is to sell on rallies [20][21]. Trading Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: For 09 and other far - month soybean meal contracts, when the price is at the lower cost range, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market; when it is at the upper range, focus on domestic pressure and whether the bullish factors have been fully priced in [5]. - **Oils**: Given the bearish and bullish factors, it is expected that the oils will mainly fluctuate [9]. - **Sugar**: Considering the international and domestic situations, the future sugar price is likely to decline [12]. - **Cotton**: It is expected that short - term cotton prices will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Eggs**: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies for near - month contracts. For medium - and long - term contracts, wait for the accumulation of contradictions [18]. - **Pigs**: Do not go long in the short term, and there is no need to chase short positions. Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long term [21]. Important Information - **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - US soybean prices rose slightly on Thursday. The US - China presidential call brought optimistic trade sentiment, and good planting and weather conditions limited the increase. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with high supply due to high crushing volume [2]. - In the next two weeks, rainfall in most US soybean - producing areas will be favorable, but there will be less rainfall in Iowa and the north. Brazilian soybean premiums have increased recently, offsetting the decline in US soybean prices, and the cost of imported soybeans remains stable [3]. - The area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season will decrease, and the total output may be easily reduced due to yield fluctuations [3]. - **Oils** - From May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.53%, and exports are expected to increase by 17.9% [7]. - A commodity research institution estimates that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's will be 19 million tons [7]. - The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil in May indicates a slight inventory build - up, but low inventories in Indonesia, India, and China provide some support for palm oil prices. If production continues to recover rapidly, oil prices will face pressure [8]. - **Sugar** - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the September contract was 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous trading day [11]. - In May, China's single - month sugar sales reached 869,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,900 tons; the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons; the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 72.69%, a year - on - year increase of 6.52 percentage points [11]. - **Cotton** - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the September contract was 13,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day [14]. - As of June 1, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 66%, an increase of 14 percentage points from the previous week, slightly lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The budding rate was 8%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous week, maintaining a normal level [14]. - **Eggs** - The national egg prices were mostly stable, with individual minor adjustments. The average price in the main production areas remained at 2.84 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and the digestion speed in some downstream markets slowed down slightly. Most areas had little inventory pressure [17]. - **Pigs** - Domestic pig prices mainly fell. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.12 yuan to 14.17 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped by 0.1 yuan to 14.01 yuan/kg. Market supply is sufficient, and downstream demand support is average [20].