1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term strategy is to wait and see. The futures price of rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed higher this week. Although the supply of Canadian rapeseed is under pressure, the agreement between Canada and Pakistan on rapeseed export provides support. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed in the near - term is tight, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are exhausted, leading to a de - stocking mode for rapeseed oil, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil to mainly rigid demand. The rapeseed oil futures price has recovered from its low level recently [7][8]. - **For Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term strategy is to participate on the long side. The futures price of rapeseed meal rose significantly this week. The optimistic sentiment in the US soybean trade boosts the price of US soybean futures, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market through cost transmission. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply pressure is small. But the demand for rapeseed meal from aquaculture is weakening, and the abundant supply of soybeans and good substitution advantage of soybean meal weaken the demand expectation. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. Recently, the prices of both rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from their lows and strengthened in the short - term [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 01 contract closed at 9533 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan/ton from the previous week. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [7][8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2539 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton from the previous week. The short - term strategy is to participate on the long side [10][11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly higher at a low level this week, with a total position of 210,490 lots, down 10,248 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures strengthened significantly, with a total position of 463,486 lots, up 120,043 lots from last week [16]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures changed from net long to net short, with a net position of - 8654 this week compared to + 2459 last week. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures changed from net short to net long, with a net position of + 26405 this week compared to - 88865 last week [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 5024 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 2745 lots [29][30]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9850 yuan/ton, slightly rising from last week, and the basis between the active contract futures price and the spot price is + 317 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2540 yuan/ton, continuing to rise from last week, and the basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract futures price is + 1 yuan/ton [37][43]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is + 405 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal is + 123 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [48]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is 3.755, and the average spot price ratio is 3.75 [51]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1349 yuan/ton, with little change this week. The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 873 yuan/ton, slightly widening this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 519 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 510 yuan/ton [61][67]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Rapeseed Supply**: As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 10,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 are 65,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 620,000 tons respectively. As of November 6, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is + 1145 yuan/ton. As of the 44th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 6000 tons, up 2000 tons from last week, and the weekly startup rate is 1.47%. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 115,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 691,600 tons (85.71%) and a month - on - month decrease of 131,400 tons [73][77][85]. - **Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: As of the 44th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 573,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 tons (4.72%). In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 156,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,200 tons (6.99%) and a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons. As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.95 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue is 450.86 billion yuan. As of the 44th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 45,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons (27.30%) [89][93][97]. - **Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand**: As of the 44th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal is 7000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1000 tons (6.67%). In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 157,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64,700 tons (29.08%) and a month - on - month decrease of 55,700 tons. As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 3.1287 million tons [101][105][109]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of November 7, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.1%, a decrease of 1.03% from 22.13% last week, and it is slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply is under less pressure due to import restrictions and oil - mill shutdowns, but the demand is also weakening as aquaculture demand decreases and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is supported by the tightening supply of imported rapeseed and the de - stocking mode. However, the demand is mainly for essential needs due to the sufficient supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. The near - month contracts of rapeseed oil perform better than the far - month ones, and the price is in a narrow - range fluctuation, suggesting short - term observation [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9443 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2497 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The ICE rapeseed closing price is 647.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.7 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5130 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 363 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is - 85 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are - 3380 lots, down 5277 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are - 24967 lots, up 13261 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2955, unchanged. The main - contract positions for rapeseed oil are 213040 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are 375310 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9770 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9887.5 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The import cost of rapeseed is 7969.31 yuan/ton, up 150.43 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.78, down 0.03 [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 327 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 33 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1360 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total rapeseed import volume is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons [2]. - The crushing profit of imported rapeseed is 596 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan. The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 2 tons, down 1 ton; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 1.6%, down 1.33% [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 16 tons, up 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 3.8 tons, down 0.4 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.71 tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 47.8 tons, down 1.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 26.05 tons, down 0.7 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.4 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume is 1.84 tons, up 1.49 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume is 0.39 tons, up 0.17 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 201.5 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 3128.7 tons, up 495 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 23.8%, up 1.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.97%, down 3.52%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 25.27%, up 4.27%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 26.8%, up 1.45% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.42%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13%, down 1.6%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 13.77%, up 0.22%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 15.09%, up 0.03% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - On November 3, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by trade optimism and the spill - over effect of CBOT soybean futures. The January rapeseed futures closed 10.90 Canadian dollars higher at 647.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons per year in the next three years, which boosts the US soybean futures price and benefits the domestic meal market [2]. - The Canadian Prime Minister and the Chinese President's meeting in South Korea failed to make a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is over, with a large supply and weakening exports, but an agreement with Pakistan provides additional support [2]. - GAPKI expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by 10% in 2025, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain, causing concerns about long - term biodiesel demand [2].

金价在周三上涨，因逢低买盘进场，此前金价在前一交易日跌至三周低点，投资者目前正等待美联储在 今日稍晚公布的利率决定。数据显示，现货黄金最高至4010美元/盎司附近，日内涨超1%。OANDA高 级市场分析师Kelvin Wong表示，"金价短期回调的原因是，由于贸易乐观情绪，避险工具向全球股市等 更具反应性的工具调整。在短期内，由于短期杠杆玩家的头寸调整和技术位的失守，黄金面临下行压 力。然而，黄金的基本面仍然看涨。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The price of spot gold experienced significant volatility, reaching a low of $3,886.51, the lowest level since October 6, due to optimistic sentiments surrounding US-China trade negotiations, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][4] - On October 28, spot gold fell to a three-week low, dropping 0.73% to close at $3,952.71 per ounce, influenced by improved trade outlooks [1][4] - The recent progress in US-China trade talks, including a framework agreement on soybean purchases and a pause on rare earth export controls, has led to a decrease in gold prices as investors preferred to sell gold [4][6] Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3% year-on-year, indicating that inflation remains above target levels, providing room for "moderate rate cuts" [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October and another in December have been largely priced in, limiting direct support for gold prices [3] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding the pace of rate cuts and the potential impact of political pressure from President Trump on interest rates are key factors influencing market sentiment [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The recent escalation of conflict in Gaza, following Israel's military actions against Hamas, has added to geopolitical tensions, which traditionally support gold prices [5][6] - Despite the current pressures on gold prices, long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and monetary policy uncertainties continue to support gold's attractiveness [8] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The recent drop in gold prices below $4,000 triggered technical sell-offs, with significant stop-loss orders being activated, leading to rapid declines [8] - If gold can reclaim and maintain the $4,000 level, it would signal a strong bullish trend; otherwise, continued trading below this level may indicate a short-term top has formed [8] - Investors are advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and the outcomes of the US-China summit for potential market direction [8]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have declined due to reduced risk appetite stemming from trade tensions and expectations of a ceasefire agreement, leading to increased short-selling pressure and a bearish outlook for the near term [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 27, gold opened at $4,078.89 per ounce, reached a high of $4,108.76, and then fell to a low of $3,971.36 before closing at $3,981.20, marking a daily decline of $127.43 or 3.1% from the previous close of $4,108.63 [1]. - The daily trading range was $137.4, indicating significant volatility during the session [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently facing resistance at trendline levels and has shown signs of a potential downward adjustment, with expectations of reaching around $3,700 in the coming month [5]. - Weekly analysis suggests that gold may test support at the 10-week moving average near $3,850 [7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes the FHFA House Price Index, S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence Index, and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which are generally expected to be supportive for gold prices [3]. - The market sentiment is influenced by the anticipated meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi, which may further shape trade agreement expectations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to decline due to reduced safe-haven demand driven by optimistic trade sentiments between the US and EU, alongside strong economic data and monetary policy expectations [3][4][10] Group 1: Trade Optimism and Safe-Haven Demand - Market expectations for a breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations have diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, with a potential agreement to lower tariffs to 15% expected by August 1 [3] - The announcement of a €93 billion tariff plan by EU member states against US products has not deterred optimism regarding a trade deal, leading to a significant drop in gold prices from a five-week high of $3438 [3] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates has reinforced expectations of a weak Eurozone economy, indirectly supporting a stronger US dollar and pressuring gold prices [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Monetary Policy Pressure - Strong US economic data, including a 15.5% increase in durable goods orders (excluding defense), has contributed to a hawkish outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with a 94% probability of maintaining interest rates in July [4] - The rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.384% and an increase in real yields to 1.994% have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] - The US dollar index has strengthened by 0.18% to 97.62, further diminishing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Institutional Withdrawal - Gold has fallen below the critical psychological level of $3400, with potential further declines towards $3350 if it remains below this threshold [7] - The RSI indicator shows a weakening of buyer dominance, indicating a slowdown in momentum [7] - Institutional investors are accelerating their exit from gold, as evidenced by a reduction in COMEX non-commercial net long positions by 3200 contracts to 122,000 and a decrease in SPDR Gold ETF holdings to a two-month low of 954.8 tons [9] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Data Expectations - Despite trade and economic factors dominating the market, geopolitical risks remain a concern, with potential events that could temporarily boost safe-haven demand [10] - The market is awaiting the release of US July durable goods orders data, with expectations of a drop from 16.4% in May to 10.8%, which could further reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve if the data exceeds expectations [10] - The current gold market faces dual pressures from trade optimism and economic data, with increased risks of downward movement below the $3350 support level [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that optimism regarding trade agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to a downward trend in gold prices [1] - Gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a low of approximately $3350 before rebounding slightly to close at $3367, marking two consecutive days of losses [1] - The unexpected improvement in the US labor market data has further strengthened the US dollar and US Treasury yields, exerting significant downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, likely trading within the range of $3390 to $3340, with key levels to watch being $3380 and $3350 [2] - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach ahead of major upcoming events, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the expiration of US tariff policies, suggesting a preference for reduced trading activity [2] - A specific trading strategy is recommended, suggesting to short gold at $3362-$3363 with a stop loss at $3370 and a target of $3340 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, along with optimistic trade talks between the U.S. and the EU, has led to a decline in gold prices as market concerns over trade tensions ease [3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements - U.S. President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, reducing auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% and securing $550 billion in U.S. investments from Japan [3]. - The EU and U.S. are nearing a similar agreement, potentially setting the baseline tariff for EU goods to the U.S. at 15%, avoiding a rise to 30% [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The trade optimism has resulted in a rally in Asian stock markets, with Japan's stock market rising nearly 4%, reaching a new high in over a year [3]. - U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached closing highs, while the Dow Jones increased by over 1% [3]. Group 3: Impact on Gold Prices - The easing of trade conflict concerns has led to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets, putting downward pressure on gold prices [3]. - Current trading strategies for precious metals suggest maintaining a bullish outlook, with the main contract for gold in Shanghai expected to trade between 760-809 yuan per gram [3].

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price continues to decline, driven by reduced safe-haven demand due to optimistic trade sentiments and a stronger US dollar, with significant market movements observed in recent trading sessions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trade Developments - Optimism in trade negotiations has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as the US has postponed tariff implementation on Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries until August 1, allowing for potential negotiations [3]. - Geopolitical risks have also eased, with the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels, further boosting global risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching 97.660, which directly pressures gold prices as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with concerns about delayed interest rate cuts growing, particularly after mixed employment data [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have breached the critical psychological level of $3,300, entering a technical support zone between $3,280 and $3,290, with potential for further declines if this support fails [7]. - The recent net reduction of 12 tons in global gold ETFs indicates that institutional investors are taking profits amid easing trade tensions, contributing to increased market selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investor sentiment is notably divided, with retail investors buying on dips while institutional investors are establishing short positions in the futures market, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, with trade optimism and a strong dollar exerting short-term pressure, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term support [10].

Group 1 - International oil prices have seen a slight increase due to optimistic trade sentiments, with traders closely monitoring the progress of negotiations between the US and its trade partners, as well as the upcoming OPEC+ meeting [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the sustainability of the recent price increase may be short-lived, especially with OPEC+ expected to agree on a significant increase in supply quotas for August [1][2] - The latest data indicates a weekly increase in US crude oil inventories by 3.8 million barrels, marking the first weekly rise since May [1][2] Group 2 - The market is currently focused on the OPEC+ meeting, which is anticipated to have a major impact on oil production levels for August, leading to cautious trading behavior ahead of the long weekend in the US [2] - Despite the increase in US crude oil inventories, the storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, has seen a decline in inventory for the fourth consecutive week, reaching the lowest level for this time of year since 2014 [2] - Market indicators show strong signs, with ongoing heatwaves and the US driving season boosting demand, as evidenced by the Brent crude near-term price spread of $1.19 per barrel [2]