Group 1 - Domestic policy expectations are rising, with "anti-involution" and demand expansion policies expected to work in tandem, further stabilizing the economy's endogenous momentum [1][5] - Global macro liquidity is improving, and the micro funding environment is favorable, providing support for stock indices [1][4][5] - The stock index is expected to resume an upward trend after a period of consolidation, driven by both fundamental and liquidity boosts [1][5] Group 2 - In August, broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates declined, with broad fiscal revenue increasing by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Tax revenue showed a positive trend, with corporate income tax increasing by 33.4% year-on-year, a significant improvement of 27 percentage points from the previous month [2][3] - Land-related tax revenues continued to show negative growth, with government fund revenue declining by 5.7% year-on-year in August [2][3] Group 3 - Public budget expenditure growth is accelerating, with social welfare-related expenditures maintaining growth, while infrastructure-related expenditures are declining [3] - The government is expected to continue policy support due to the current economic pressures, particularly in light of weak land-related revenues [3] - The significant increase in corporate income tax reflects the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, and there are signs of recovery in corporate profits as PPI declines narrow [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut is part of a "preventive" easing cycle, contributing to global macro liquidity improvement [4] - The Chinese central bank maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, with expectations for continued moderate easing in the future [4] - The market is experiencing active sentiment, supported by sustained high levels of financing and increased non-bank deposits [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cuts are beneficial for the healthy operation of the U.S. economy and enhance global macro liquidity [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Equity Market - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite marginal convergence, and the AI industry has vast development potential, supporting a positive outlook for U.S. equities [2] - The Federal Reserve's preventive monetary policy adjustments help maintain a healthy economic trend and avoid inflation and employment risks, ensuring liquidity stability in the U.S. stock market [2] - The U.S. stock market is considered to have a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value in the current phase [2] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - The internal inflation stickiness and the potential for a mild decline in real interest rates lead to a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - The Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts are expected to improve global macro liquidity, which may help suppress internal inflation stickiness and real interest rates [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are viewed as having a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [2] Group 3: Commodities - The improvement in global macro liquidity and the decline in real interest rates are expected to support gold performance [2] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lower the holding costs of gold, positively impacting gold prices [2] - Gold is considered to have a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [2] Group 4: Currency Market - The resilience of the Chinese economy and the decrease in extreme geopolitical conflict risks support the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3] - The Chinese economy is showing stable growth, with strong growth momentum compared to other major economies, which is expected to support the RMB's appreciation [3] - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to exhibit a two-way fluctuation trend, with a central tendency of gradual appreciation [3]