1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper in the medium - term, despite recent price declines due to inventory pressure and potential geopolitical conflicts. Copper is considered a metal with increasing demand and limited supply [1]. - Aluminum prices may rise in the short - term due to production disruptions in the Middle East. There is still a driving force for the long - short spread between the domestic and foreign markets [1]. - Zinc prices are expected to be supported in the short - term, although the domestic fundamentals are average, due to limited long - term capital investment and supply disruptions from Iran [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a range, influenced by bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [4]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and trade in a range, with a weak fundamental situation and supply - side policy interventions [8]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit support [11]. - Tin prices are highly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward potential; if liquidity tightens, tin prices may be suppressed [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and bottom - oscillate in the long - term due to over - capacity [17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a tight balance in March, with potential inventory accumulation in May and June. The upward breakthrough requires futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disruptions, while the downward breakthrough requires a collapse in demand or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. LME inventory expectations are high, and the North American delivery action is ongoing. The domestic refined - scrap copper spread has narrowed, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper by scrap copper has increased [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream demand has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, but the recovery of domestic recycled copper processing enterprises is slower than in previous years. The supply of scrap copper is tight, which may promote the further reduction of refined copper inventory [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices may rise in the short - term due to production disruptions in the Middle East. The overseas supply is tightened, and the external market is stronger than the domestic market. The domestic bonded area inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of aluminum plants in Qatar and Bahrain has been affected. The supply in the Middle East is disrupted, and the external supply is tightened [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices have slightly declined. The domestic inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be tight in the medium - term. The import window has not opened. The downstream demand has gradually recovered after the Lantern Festival, but the orders are weak [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices have fluctuated. The domestic inventory has continued to increase, and the LME inventory has slightly increased [3][4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel in February decreased. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The supply of nickel mines is expected to be tight throughout the year due to policy interventions in Indonesia [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices have remained stable. The inventory has seasonally increased this week [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill production has slightly decreased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The cost of nickel iron has slightly increased, and the cost of chrome iron has remained stable [8]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices have maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic inventory has increased [10][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of primary lead has recovered, and the production of recycled lead is expected to resume in mid - March. The terminal demand is weak [10][11]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices have significantly declined this week. The domestic inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has fluctuated [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin in Wabang is expected to accelerate in the second quarter. The domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend, but the production of tin ingots in March may be reduced more than expected. The demand for replenishment is strong after the price decline [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs. The inventory has not changed significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some large factories have resumed production. The supply and demand are close to a balanced state. In the long - term, the over - capacity is still high [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices have increased. The inventory has slightly increased [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: In March, the supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in May and June [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the pricing logic of non-ferrous metals, emphasizing the rise of strategic resource populism as a key factor influencing market pricing, particularly after the implementation of equal tariffs in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Non-Ferrous Metals Market Analysis - The traditional pricing framework for non-ferrous metals has been driven by global macro liquidity, economic expectations, and the US dollar index, but recent years have shown a divergence between metal prices and global economic indicators [4][6]. - The current economic environment is characterized by low global PMI levels, yet non-ferrous metal prices have outperformed expectations, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by monetary attributes and strategic reserve demands [4][7]. Trading Framework and Historical Performance - The core trading framework focuses on the economic cycle, particularly inventory cycles, with liquidity as an important extension. However, this framework has faced challenges in the non-ferrous metals sector due to unique supply and demand dynamics [6][7]. - Historical trading experiences highlight the importance of adhering to a core framework while recognizing the evolving market conditions, leading to successful investments in precious metals and strategic small metals [9][10]. Sector-Specific Insights - Precious Metals (Gold, Silver): The article notes a strong performance in gold and silver due to anticipated changes in US monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, with significant gains observed over the past three years [9][10]. - Strategic Small Metals (Antimony, Tungsten, Rare Earths): The author emphasizes early positioning in strategic small metals, benefiting from export controls and geopolitical shifts, resulting in substantial price increases [11][12]. - Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum): Despite a generally positive long-term outlook, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of demand due to ongoing issues in the real estate sector and uncertainties in US economic growth [13][14]. 2026 Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The market for non-ferrous metals is expected to remain active, but the author advocates for a cautious approach, focusing on identifying clear entry points rather than participating in the current market excitement [16][17]. - Industrial metals are viewed with caution due to unresolved concerns about the real estate market and the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditures, with a recommendation to monitor these sectors closely [17][18]. - For strategic small metals, the long-term outlook remains positive, but current high prices necessitate waiting for favorable entry points [20][21]. - Precious metals continue to show long-term benefits, but short-term caution is advised due to market volatility and the need for clear buying signals [21][22]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while the non-ferrous metals market is currently vibrant, the focus should remain on waiting for definitive buying opportunities rather than engaging in all market trends, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic decision-making in investment [22][24].

Group 1 - Domestic policy expectations are rising, with "anti-involution" and demand expansion policies expected to work in tandem, further stabilizing the economy's endogenous momentum [1][5] - Global macro liquidity is improving, and the micro funding environment is favorable, providing support for stock indices [1][4][5] - The stock index is expected to resume an upward trend after a period of consolidation, driven by both fundamental and liquidity boosts [1][5] Group 2 - In August, broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates declined, with broad fiscal revenue increasing by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Tax revenue showed a positive trend, with corporate income tax increasing by 33.4% year-on-year, a significant improvement of 27 percentage points from the previous month [2][3] - Land-related tax revenues continued to show negative growth, with government fund revenue declining by 5.7% year-on-year in August [2][3] Group 3 - Public budget expenditure growth is accelerating, with social welfare-related expenditures maintaining growth, while infrastructure-related expenditures are declining [3] - The government is expected to continue policy support due to the current economic pressures, particularly in light of weak land-related revenues [3] - The significant increase in corporate income tax reflects the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, and there are signs of recovery in corporate profits as PPI declines narrow [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut is part of a "preventive" easing cycle, contributing to global macro liquidity improvement [4] - The Chinese central bank maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, with expectations for continued moderate easing in the future [4] - The market is experiencing active sentiment, supported by sustained high levels of financing and increased non-bank deposits [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cuts are beneficial for the healthy operation of the U.S. economy and enhance global macro liquidity [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Equity Market - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite marginal convergence, and the AI industry has vast development potential, supporting a positive outlook for U.S. equities [2] - The Federal Reserve's preventive monetary policy adjustments help maintain a healthy economic trend and avoid inflation and employment risks, ensuring liquidity stability in the U.S. stock market [2] - The U.S. stock market is considered to have a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value in the current phase [2] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - The internal inflation stickiness and the potential for a mild decline in real interest rates lead to a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - The Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts are expected to improve global macro liquidity, which may help suppress internal inflation stickiness and real interest rates [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are viewed as having a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [2] Group 3: Commodities - The improvement in global macro liquidity and the decline in real interest rates are expected to support gold performance [2] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lower the holding costs of gold, positively impacting gold prices [2] - Gold is considered to have a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [2] Group 4: Currency Market - The resilience of the Chinese economy and the decrease in extreme geopolitical conflict risks support the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3] - The Chinese economy is showing stable growth, with strong growth momentum compared to other major economies, which is expected to support the RMB's appreciation [3] - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to exhibit a two-way fluctuation trend, with a central tendency of gradual appreciation [3]