战术性资产配置

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国泰海通|策略:平衡风险:美联储预防式降息谨慎克制
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-21 13:55
报告导读: 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配港股与美股, 战术性标配美债、黄金与人民币。 美联储进行"预防式"降息有利于美国经济良性运行,并提升全球宏观流动性 ;中美两国元首通话交流则为国际地缘政治冲突设定上限。权益资产中,我们对 受到中国强经济韧性、科技产业趋势与全球宏观流动性改善支持的港股高度乐观。我们对经济尚有韧性、AI产业具有广阔发展空间且受到"预防式"降息改善流 动性的美股相对乐观。债券资产中,我们对美国内生性通胀粘性与实际利率或温和下行背景下的美债相对中性。大宗商品中,我们认为全球宏观流动性改善与 实际利率下降有望支持黄金表现。全球外汇中,我们认为中国经济强韧性以及极端地缘政治冲突风险下降有望支持人民币汇率。 美联储降息或支持港股流动性充裕稳定,我们维持对港股的战术性超配观点。 中国科技突破与新兴产业主题交易热度持续高涨,总量政策预期稳定以及资本 市场制度改革提振市场风险偏好,中国内地无风险利率中枢下行以及海外美联储货币政策趋松调整有利于支持港流动性充裕稳定。中国内地南下资金对港股定 价权的提升亦有利于降低全球复杂宏观环境对港股的扰动。我们认为港股阶段性具备极高的风险回报比 ...
国泰海通:美联储降息预期持续强化 建议战术性超配A股
智通财经网· 2025-09-16 13:04
智通财经APP获悉,国泰海通发布研报称,维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。权益资产中,对经济 景气预期持续上修、国家高度支持资本市场发展、市场流动性稳定、风险偏好逐渐改善以及微观交易结 构稳固优化的A股高度乐观。建议战术性超配A股,战术性标配美债与黄金,战术性低配美元。 国泰海通主要观点如下: 美国劳动力市场降温强化了货币政策预期的"预防式"宽松预期。 权益资产中,对经济景气预期持续上修、国家高度支持资本市场发展、市场流动性稳定、风险偏好逐渐 改善以及微观交易结构稳固优化的A股高度乐观。债券资产中,对受到货币政策预期趋松以及国内景气 边际收敛支持的美债相对中性。大宗商品中,该行认为黄金价格或将边际受益于地缘政治形势升温与美 联储货币政策预期的调整。全球外汇中,该行认为美联储货币政策指引以及货币政策预期趋松或边际削 弱美元相较于其他货币的表现。 随着美国经济景气度边际收敛以及劳动力市场小幅降温,市场对美联储货币政策的趋松预期进一步强 化。该行认为美债阶段性具备适中的风险回报比与战术性配置价值。 市场对美联储货币政策预期的趋松调整有利于降低黄金持有成本,维持对黄金的战术性标配观点。 近期全球地缘政治形势再度升温, ...
战术性资产配置周度点评(20250914):宽松在望:美联储降息预期持续强化-20250915
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-15 12:17
宽松在望:美联储降息预期持续强化 [Table_Authors] 王子翌(分析师) 战术性资产配置周度点评(20250914) 本报告导读: 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配 A 股,战术性标配 美债与黄金,战术性低配美元。 投资要点: | | | | | 021-38038293 | | --- | --- | | | wangziyi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050004 | | | 方奕(分析师) | | | 021-38031658 | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 中国市场机会是广泛的,年内还有望走出新高 2025.09.14 中国股市不会止步,行情有望走向扩散 2025.08.31 成交活跃度升温,创业板指估值领涨 2025.08.30 成交活跃度走高,创业板指估值领涨 2025.08.23 如火如荼:权益资产或仍阶段性占优 2025.08.18 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 策 略 周 报 ...
国泰海通|策略:风险偏好改善支撑全球权益配置价值
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-08-11 14:15
报告导读: 我们认为市场后续表现将继续由风险偏好变化主导,当下风险资产具备更高的 战术性配置价值, 8 月维持对 A 股和美股的战术性超配观点。 8 月维持对 A 股与美股的战术性超配观点。 近期市场风险偏好改善持续主导大类资产定价,风险资产显著优于避险资产,权益>商品>债券。我们对经济景 气预期持续上修、国家高度支持资本市场发展、市场流动性稳定、风险偏好逐渐改善以及微观交易结构稳固优化的 A 股高度乐观。对经济衰退短期难以证实 且降息概率增加的美股相对乐观 。 当前低利率背景对资产配置研究提出了更高要求。在资本市场高质量发展的政策目标引导下,中长期资金入市成为长期趋势,多元化投资工具的不断丰富为多 资产配置策略提供了良好条件。 如果将资产比作食物的话,因子就像是食物中的营养元素,针对因子优化配置,相当于"穿透"食物,调配营养成分,从因子 角度出发进行配置可以做到真正意义上的风险分散。我们从宏观因子构建出发,通过分散宏观超预期风险,构建了科学均衡的 SAA (战略性资产配置)方案 (截至 7 月末年化收益率为 9.1% ,夏普比指标达到 1.57 )。基于该方案与宏观经济假设,我们设定权益、债券、商品的战略基 ...
稳固优化:中国权益仍具备上行动能
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-04 12:27
Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in A-shares and US stocks, a neutral position in RMB, and an underweight in oil [1][15][16] - A-shares are expected to perform well due to improving economic sentiment, strong government support for capital markets, stable market liquidity, and an improving micro trading structure [15][16] - The US stock market is viewed positively despite recent employment data revisions, with expectations of continued resilience in the economy [15][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the oil market remains under pressure from both supply and demand sides, leading to a tactical underweight recommendation for oil [15][16] - The RMB is expected to maintain stability and appreciate due to the resilient growth momentum of the Chinese economy compared to other major economies [15][17] - The tactical asset allocation strategy reflects expectations of high risk-return ratios for Chinese equities and US stocks, while suggesting a cautious approach towards oil investments [15][16][17]
战术性资产配置周度点评:甘霖终降,基建发力提振市场风险偏好-20250722
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-07-22 11:41
Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight position in Hong Kong stocks, a neutral position in the Chinese yuan, and an underweight position in commodities, Japanese stocks, and US Treasuries [1][2][6] - Recent market performance has been driven by improved risk appetite, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds, and the report expresses optimism towards Hong Kong stocks due to rising liquidity and risk preference [2][22] - The report highlights the significant impact of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project on investor sentiment and related industry earnings expectations, indicating a shift in international capital flows towards Hong Kong stocks [6][19][26] Group 2 - The report reviews major events affecting asset pricing, including Trump's denial of plans to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, which alleviated some market concerns about Fed independence [19][22] - The report notes that the Japanese ruling coalition's loss of a majority in the Senate may weaken policy predictability, increasing volatility in Japanese asset pricing [23] - The report emphasizes that while infrastructure investment may temporarily support commodity prices, it maintains a cautious stance on commodities due to ongoing supply and demand pressures [26][27] Group 3 - The tactical asset allocation strategy includes an overweight in Hong Kong stocks due to strong performance and improved risk appetite, while maintaining a cautious view on US Treasuries amid concerns over fiscal pressures and economic resilience [26][27] - The report suggests that the Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable due to resilient economic growth compared to other major economies, supporting a neutral allocation stance [27][30] - The report outlines the performance of various asset classes, indicating that the tactical asset allocation portfolio achieved a cumulative excess return of 2.87% relative to the benchmark [35][36]
国泰海通|策略:硝烟再起:中东地区爆发地缘政治冲突
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-16 14:53
我们维持对美债的战术性低配观点。 在特朗普政府政策缺乏可预测性且反复多变的背景下,市场对美国主 权信用的修正意味着其对美债利率有着更高的要求。近期通胀预期边际下行,但绝对水平仍偏高,且中东 地缘政治冲突将加剧通胀预期的博弈。美国经济韧性或支持美债实际利率中枢的上行,美债利率易上难 下。结构上,美债收益率曲线或呈熊陡态势,短久期债券所带来的确定性高票息收入使得其相较于长久期 债券有更高的配置价值。 我们维持对黄金的战术性超配观点。 特朗普政府的关税政策意味着传统世界秩序加速调整,而其决策反复 多变难以预料亦使得美元体系被大幅削弱。在市场对全球传统秩序预期调整、国际地缘政治危机担忧升 温,且美国乃至全球经济存在衰退甚至滞胀压力的背景下,黄金作为非债券类的避险资产近乎是所有风险 的"完美对冲"。此前市场对特朗普的关税政策逐渐钝化使得黄金表现承压,但美国政府内部的政治斗争以 及全球宏观环境复杂化是客观存在的,我们认为黄金的短期风险回报比在主要大类资产中处于较高水平。 基于战术性主动观点,我们分别设置境内主动资产配置组合与全球主动资产配置组合。 境内主动资产配置 组合收益率为0.61%,基准指数收益率为0.88%,超额 ...
国泰海通|金工:波澜又起:特朗普政策再度调整——大类资产配置周度点评(20250525)
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-27 13:09
Group 1 - The company maintains a tactical underweight view on Japanese stocks due to a slowing economic recovery and high inflation risks, leading to lower risk-return ratios in the equity market [1] - The company holds a tactical overweight view on government bonds, citing a stable economic recovery and favorable interest rate conditions, with mid to short-duration bonds offering higher allocation value compared to long-duration bonds [1] - The company adopts a tactical neutral view on gold, recognizing its role as a hedge against geopolitical risks and economic downturns, while noting potential price volatility due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies [2] Group 2 - The domestic active asset allocation portfolio achieved a return of 0.11%, outperforming the benchmark index by 0.10%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.72% as of May 25, 2025 [3] - The global active asset allocation portfolio recorded a return of 0.03%, matching the benchmark index, with a cumulative excess return of 3.11% as of May 25, 2025 [3]
大类资产配置周度点评(20250223):薄冰现隙:美国服务业PMI超预期下行-2025-03-05
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-05 12:40
Group 1 - The report adjusts the tactical asset allocation view for US stocks to neutral, reflecting a marginally declining trend in the US economy under high interest rates and uncertain policies [3][7][8] - The US Services PMI for February 2025 was reported at 50.4, significantly below market expectations of 53.2 and the previous value of 52.7, marking the lowest level in nearly 17 months [6][7] - The report indicates that despite the marginal economic contraction, the overall resilience of the US economy remains, with the manufacturing PMI at 51.6, slightly above expectations [6][7] Group 2 - The report highlights that the tactical allocation view for the US dollar has also been adjusted to neutral, supported by strong investment in the US economy and global capital allocation towards dollar assets [8][10] - The domestic active asset allocation portfolio reported a return of -0.16% for the week ending February 23, 2025, with a cumulative excess return of 3.07% since inception [16][23] - The global active asset allocation portfolio achieved a return of 0.25% for the same week, with a cumulative excess return of 2.74% [23][24]