全球政治经济不确定性

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会员金选丨教授公开课:全球政治经济不确定性下的国际经济形势展望
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-08-13 04:12
Group 1 - The public lecture will explore the international economic outlook under global political and economic uncertainty [2][3] - The event is scheduled for August 16, Saturday, at 1:00 PM in Beijing [2] - The agenda includes a lecture by Professor Li Nan on economic decision-making logic in uncertain environments, focusing on long-term risks and the impact of technological innovation on asset pricing [3] Group 2 - Professor Li Nan is the Deputy Director of the Securities and Finance Research Institute at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has extensive experience in financial economics and macro asset pricing [4] - Her research focuses on economic policy and investment decisions under uncertainty, pricing of long-term risks, and the valuation of intangible assets [4] - Professor Li has published articles in top economic journals and has collaborated with Nobel laureates, indicating her significant contributions to the field [4] Group 3 - Professor Li has rich bilingual teaching experience and has taught various programs including undergraduate, master's, and executive education [5] - She has received multiple awards for her thesis guidance and has developed several internationally recognized courses [5] - Her contributions to educational materials include writing a chapter for the "Research Handbook on Alternative Finance" [5] Group 4 - Professor Li has published articles on financial regulation, fintech, and innovation finance in influential media outlets and has been invited to speak at various forums [6] - The public lecture series is a collaboration between First Financial and Shanghai Jiao Tong University, aimed at addressing pressing topics for businesses [7]
会员金选丨教授公开课:全球政治经济不确定性下的国际经济形势展望
第一财经· 2025-08-13 03:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses an upcoming public lecture focusing on economic decision-making logic in uncertain environments, the quantitative assessment of long-term risks and growth through technological innovation, and the core impact of technological innovation on asset pricing [2][10]. Summary by Sections Event Details - The public lecture is scheduled for August 16 (Saturday) at 13:00, located at the Global Financial Center, East Third Ring Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing [2]. - The agenda includes a signing in period from 13:00 to 14:00, followed by a lecture on the international economic outlook under global political and economic uncertainty from 14:00 to 15:00, a discussion on the Gaijin MBA training system from 15:00 to 15:40, and a Q&A session from 15:40 to 16:00 [4]. Speaker Profile - Professor Li Nan is an associate professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University’s Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance and serves as the deputy director of the Securities and Finance Research Institute [5]. - Li Nan has extensive experience in financial economics, econometrics, and macro asset pricing, focusing on economic policy and investment decision-making under uncertainty, long-term risk pricing, and the valuation of intangible assets [6]. Teaching and Research Contributions - Li Nan has a rich background in bilingual teaching and has taught various programs including undergraduate, master's, and executive education [7]. - She has published articles in influential media regarding financial regulation, fintech, and innovation finance, and has been invited to speak at various prestigious forums [8].
特朗普搅局下黄金要飞6000美元?帮主郑重带你拆解摩根大通的"疯狂预测"
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 00:35
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices may rise to $6,000 per ounce by 2029, driven by potential asset sell-offs due to Trump's policies [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Trump's policies, including a proposed 145% tariff on trade partners, may lead to a sell-off of U.S. assets, prompting foreign investors to consider reallocating their investments [3] - A mere 0.5% shift of foreign investors' U.S. assets into gold could result in an influx of $273.6 billion, equivalent to approximately 2,500 tons of gold, significantly impacting the gold market [3] Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1, indicating potential economic adjustments due to trade wars and tariffs, which could influence future policy decisions [3] - The gold supply is not fixed; if prices reach $4,000, previously unprofitable mines may resume production, potentially moderating price increases [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to treat the gold price prediction as a warning rather than a definitive forecast, suggesting a strategic allocation of 10%-15% of total assets into gold ETFs or physical gold [4] - The gold-silver ratio is approaching 75, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities, as historically, ratios above 80 have led to such scenarios [4] - Monitoring key economic indicators like U.S. CPI data and election polls is recommended for making informed short-term investment decisions [4]