【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略徐驰：2026 年资本市场年度策略展 望——全球格局重构与"十五五"战略新机遇 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2025 年 12 月 04 日 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收林 莎：告别铅与火，迎来光与电—— 2026 年多资产年度策略》2025-12-02 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴 志锋：深度前瞻 | 银行业 26 年的业 务增长点及投资映射》2025-12-01 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】金工吴 先兴：12 月 A 股指数调样会带来哪 些投资机会》2025-11-30 今日预览 今日重点>> 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 【策略】徐驰：全球格局重构与"十五五"战略新机遇——2026 年资 本市场年度策略展望 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 【策略】徐驰：全球格局重构与"十五五"战略新机遇——2026 年资本市场年度策略展望 一、风险偏好提升的关键：全球格局重构 本轮 A 股市场行情的核心驱动在于风险偏好的系统性提升。这种提升源自全球格局正在经历的 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the current A-share market is the systematic increase in risk appetite, stemming from a profound "reconstruction" of the global landscape [6][29][37] - The ongoing geopolitical competition and the shift in national power dynamics have elevated the strategic position of capital markets, reflecting long-term expectations of national strength and institutional stability rather than short-term profit fluctuations [7][41][43] Group 2 - The report identifies two key time points in 2026 regarding the Federal Reserve and US-China relations, which will significantly influence market dynamics [8][10][62] - The potential change in the Federal Reserve's leadership could lead to a more dovish monetary policy, impacting global liquidity and risk appetite in emerging markets, including A-shares [10][60][61] Group 3 - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in "debt management" and "expectation management," with a focus on stabilizing local government debt risks through asset securitization [12][46] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a "slow bull" characteristic, with accelerated rotation and the importance of retail investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator [12][46] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the significance of the AI industry, particularly in storage chips and humanoid robots, as key areas for investment due to their strategic importance in the AI era [20][22] - The focus on "反内卷" (anti-involution) will benefit upstream resources critical to national competitiveness, such as lithium and graphite materials, which are expected to see increased demand [22][23] Group 5 - The new consumption trends among younger generations are highlighted as structural opportunities, with sectors like gaming and pet products poised for growth [23] - The report suggests that safety asset allocations, such as high-dividend stocks and gold, will become increasingly attractive amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [24][25]