1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply - loose pattern. Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted in their upward space, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices. Sugar prices will mainly fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term. Pulp prices are affected by supply pressure and weak demand, and it's difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 27, the budding rate of U.S. cotton was 80%, 6 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 55%, 5 percentage points higher than last year and the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be supply - loose. U.S. cotton prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is depleting fast, but new cotton is expected to be abundant, and terminal demand is weak. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou cotton has an upward trend, but the supply is sufficient in the new year, and the upward space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons (up 11.3% year - on - year), sugar production to be 3.3 million tons (up 12.5% year - on - year), and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters (up 2.3% year - on - year) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices. However, the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and Indian policies may lead to short - term rebounds. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, but imports may suppress prices. New sugar listing will increase downward pressure [5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The prices of imported wood pulp showed different trends. Some softwood pulp prices declined, some hardwood pulp prices were in a stalemate, and some chemical mechanical pulp prices increased [6] Market Analysis - Pulp prices fluctuated. The anti - involution policy boosted the market, but supply pressure remains as imports increased in the first half of 2025 and domestic production capacity will increase. Demand is weak both at home and abroad, and terminal demand improvement is limited in the second half of the year [7] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term price increases are driven by macro - sentiment, and there is a chance to short at high prices after the macro - stimulus ends [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-19 供应前景乐观，糖价依旧承压 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收涨。宏观方面，近期中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过宏观环 境不确定性仍强，随后价格又回落整理，需关注中美最终谈判结果和关税具体落地情况。国际方面，6月USDA供 需报告调减25/26年度全球棉花产量及消费量，由于产量减幅大于消费，叠加期初供应减少，期末库存环比下降。 美棉主产区近期降雨偏多，旱情较前期持续改善，其他国家供应端天气的叙事性目前也不足，国际棉价短期预计 延续震荡，跟随宏观情绪波动为主。后续重点关注各主产国天气及新棉生长状况。国内方面，棉花商业库存加速 去库，需求表现仍具韧性，本年度后期供需仍有趋紧预期。不过新年度国内植棉面积稳中有增，棉苗长势普遍较 好，新作产量继续增加的概率较大，种植端缺乏明显利好驱动。国内需求步入淡季，下游新订单情况未有明显改 善，成品库存有所上升，市场对于90天期满后的关税政策仍存担忧，需求面支撑不足。 策略 中性。尽管中美经过2天谈判后原则上达成协议框架，但当前关税政策仍存在高度不确定性，宏观利好提振有限。 新年度疆棉丰产预期较强，国内进入消费淡季，棉价持续 ...