1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply - loose pattern. Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted in their upward space, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices. Sugar prices will mainly fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term. Pulp prices are affected by supply pressure and weak demand, and it's difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 27, the budding rate of U.S. cotton was 80%, 6 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 55%, 5 percentage points higher than last year and the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be supply - loose. U.S. cotton prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is depleting fast, but new cotton is expected to be abundant, and terminal demand is weak. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou cotton has an upward trend, but the supply is sufficient in the new year, and the upward space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons (up 11.3% year - on - year), sugar production to be 3.3 million tons (up 12.5% year - on - year), and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters (up 2.3% year - on - year) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices. However, the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and Indian policies may lead to short - term rebounds. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, but imports may suppress prices. New sugar listing will increase downward pressure [5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The prices of imported wood pulp showed different trends. Some softwood pulp prices declined, some hardwood pulp prices were in a stalemate, and some chemical mechanical pulp prices increased [6] Market Analysis - Pulp prices fluctuated. The anti - involution policy boosted the market, but supply pressure remains as imports increased in the first half of 2025 and domestic production capacity will increase. Demand is weak both at home and abroad, and terminal demand improvement is limited in the second half of the year [7] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term price increases are driven by macro - sentiment, and there is a chance to short at high prices after the macro - stimulus ends [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][4][6] Core Views - The cotton market is affected by macro - environment uncertainties, international supply - demand changes, and domestic supply - demand trends. Although there are short - term price fluctuations, the overall situation lacks strong driving forces on both the supply and demand sides [1][2] - The sugar market is facing a situation where the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazilian production and domestic import rhythm are the key factors affecting the market [3][4] - The pulp market has a supply - side with weak cost support and a demand - side with poor downstream performance. The market is expected to continue low - level oscillations [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,540 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,756 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,857 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In May 2025, China's cotton import volume was 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (33.9%) from the previous month and 220,000 tons (86.3%) from the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations boosted domestic cotton prices, but uncertainties remain [2] - International: The June USDA supply - demand report reduced the global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, with a decline in ending stocks. International cotton prices are expected to oscillate [2] - Domestic: Commercial cotton inventories are accelerating de - stocking, but new - year planting area is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to policy uncertainties and supply - demand situations [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,679 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Import: In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 333,100 tons year - on - year. From January to May, the import volume was 633,200 tons, a decrease of 641,200 tons (50.31%) [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Although energy prices support international sugar prices, the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil and other countries puts downward pressure on prices [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: Domestic sales data support spot prices, but with the weakening of raw sugar, import profits appear, increasing supply pressure [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar, with a long - term weakening trend [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract yesterday was 5,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with weak downstream demand [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Arauco's long - term contract price has been continuously reduced, and the supply is expected to remain loose [6] - Demand: European demand is weak, and domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, with poor terminal demand expectations [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The market is expected to continue low - level oscillations due to weak demand and lack of positive drivers [6]