农产品日报 | 2026-03-06 糖价内强外弱，郑棉冲高回落 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15250元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨，幅度+0.30%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价16396元/吨，较前一日变动+2元/吨，现货基差CF05+1146，较前一日变动-43；3128B棉全国均价16583元/吨， 较前一日变动+12元/吨，现货基差CF05+1333，较前一日变动-33。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA），2.20-2.26日一周美国2025/26年度陆地棉净签约34088吨（含签约34133吨， 取消前期签约45吨），较前一周减少41%，较近四周平均减少50%。装运陆地棉64002吨，较前一周增加46%，较近 四周平均增加43%。净签约本年度皮马棉1701吨，较上周减少50%，较近四周平均增加9%。装运皮马棉2812吨， 较上周及近四周平均水平均明显增加。净签约下年度陆地棉12383吨，未签约下年度皮马棉。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价冲高回落。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万吨，同比减 少3.2%；全球 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-27 棉价冲高回落，郑糖延续反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15350元/吨，较前一日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.20%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价16548元/吨，较前一日变动+759元/吨，现货基差CF05+1198，较前一日变动+694；3128B棉全国均价16681元/ 吨，较前一日变动+611元/吨，现货基差CF05+1331，较前一日变动+546。 近期市场资讯，截止2月15日全国棉花商业库存550.37万吨，较1月底减少28.5万吨，减幅4.92%，低于去年同期 17.74 万吨，减幅 3.12%。截至2月15日，纺织企业在库棉花工业库存量为102.92万吨，同比增加7.56万吨，环比增加2.82 万吨。纺织企业可支配棉花库存量为121.78万吨，同比减少6.89万吨，环比增加3.33万吨。纺织企业纱线库存21.32 天，同比减少0.86天，环比减少0.39天。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万吨，同比减 少3.2%；全球消费量2615万吨 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-26 中性。短期来看，金三银四传统旺季即将来临，市场对节后行情抱有较强信心，受假期外盘上涨及关税政策变化 的带动，节后郑棉走势可能震荡偏强，不过短期涨势预计仍将受到内外价差的压制。 郑棉持续走强，白糖小幅反弹 风险 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15380元/吨，较前一日变动+95元/吨，幅度+0.62%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价16037元/吨，现货基差CF05+657；3128B棉全国均价16329元/吨，现货基差CF05+949。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，2月13日至2月19日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验1.61万吨，77.2% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为1.53万吨，皮马棉为0.08万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续涨势。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万吨，同比减 少3.2%；全球消费量2615万吨，同比增加1.2%；新年度全球期末库存1550万吨，同比减少5.2%。USDA展望预期 偏多，新年度全球棉市供需格局有望收紧，叠加美棉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [2][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybean meal, the good weather in Brazil and the expected record - high soybean production will put pressure on US soybean and domestic soybean meal prices. With feed enterprises' procurement basically completed, oil mills' soybean meal and soybean inventories are high, so the soybean meal price will fluctuate. Future focus should be on US soybean procurement and Brazil's harvest [1][2] - For corn, last season's low corn imports led to significant depletion of channel inventories. Although there was a good harvest in Northeast China this season, affected by floods in North China and the uncertainty of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply is not loose. The corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot trading, imports, and grain auctions [3][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2773 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton or 1.43% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2288 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.96% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3060 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazil's February soybean exports are expected to be 11.71 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.93 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 180 million tons and exports at 114 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2316 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 1.31%; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2571 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.94% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: The US Department of Agriculture estimated the US 2025/26 corn planting area at 98.8 million acres, harvest area at 91.3 million acres, yield per acre at 186.5 bushels, production at 17.021 billion bushels, exports at 3.3 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels. Brazil's 2025/26 corn production is estimated at 131 million tons, and exports at 43 million tons [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - For soybean meal, Brazil's good weather and expected high - yield soybean production will suppress US soybean and domestic soybean meal prices. With sufficient domestic supply, the soybean meal price will fluctuate, and future focus should be on US soybean procurement and Brazil's harvest [2] - For corn, due to last season's low imports and this season's flood in North China, and the uncertainty of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply is not loose. The corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot trading, imports, and grain auctions [5] 3.3 Strategy - The investment strategy for both soybean meal and corn is neutral [2][6]

Group 1: Corn Market Analysis - The corn 03 contract closed at 2268 CNY/ton, with a daily decline of 0.04%, indicating limited overall volatility [4][12] - The spot market is entering a pre-holiday winding down phase, with purchasing and sales slowing down; northern port collection volumes are decreasing, and mainstream prices are maintained in the range of 2270-2280 CNY/ton [4][12] - Downstream demand is weak, with deep processing enterprises announcing reduced purchasing notifications, and feed enterprises primarily executing previous contracts [4][12] - The corn market is in a low volatility and weak game phase before the holiday, with prices constrained; the trading focus is shifting towards post-holiday conditions [4][12] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market Insights - There is speculation in the overseas market regarding new U.S. soybean purchases by China, but the outlook for South American production limits the rebound potential [4][12] - Argentina's soybean is facing dry heat stress, potentially leading to production losses, while the market weighs between Brazilian abundance and Argentine reduction narratives [4][12] - The domestic soybean meal market is stabilizing due to external market influences, with a focus on the arrival of March soybeans and reserve auction rhythms post-holiday [4][12] Group 3: Egg Market Overview - The average spot price for eggs in Hebei is approximately 2.88 CNY/jin, reflecting a slight increase of 0.06 CNY/jin from the previous day [5][13] - The 03 contract's price reflects market expectations of high inventory and weak seasonal demand post-holiday, with limited further downside potential [5][13] - There is a cautionary note regarding the risk of further declines in spot prices if inventory pressures exceed expectations or demand recovery is slow [5][13] Group 4: Live Pig Market Situation - The average price for live pigs in major production areas is about 11.82 CNY/kg, facing pressure after a seasonal rebound before the Spring Festival [7][15] - There is significant supply pressure due to concentrated market releases by breeding enterprises, with a planned slaughter volume of 22.92 million heads in February, a decrease of 17.73% from January [7][15] - The futures market has adequately priced in expectations for price declines, with a high basis level reflecting anticipated price corrections [7][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton supply-demand pattern in the 25/26 season is generally loose, and the domestic cotton production has increased significantly. Although there is a high consumption expectation due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, the overall upward drive is insufficient. The short-term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season has entered a definite surplus. Although the short-term trade flow is in a tight balance, the medium and long-term surplus pattern will suppress the sugar price. However, the long - term sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The short and medium - term domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken, and the demand for paper pulp will have marginal incremental growth. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level [7][8] Summary by Related Content Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract yesterday was 14,610 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,743 yuan/ton, a change of +5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 16,012 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton [1] - In December, Turkey's cotton imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In the 2025/26 season, Turkey's cumulative cotton imports were 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Brazilian cotton was the main import source, accounting for 38%, followed by US cotton at 25% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is loose, US cotton exports have weakened again, and terminal demand is weak. The short - term ICE US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, US cotton is at a low - valuation range with limited further decline space, but the upward drive is not clear [2] - Domestically, the 25/26 season has seen a significant increase in cotton production, and commercial inventories are seasonally rising. Traders' willingness to hold goods is strong, and spot transactions are good. Textile enterprises are stocking up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply - demand is expected to be balanced, but there is a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to limited domestic demand support and the pressure of internal - external price differences [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5,224 yuan/ton, a change of +14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,300 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,150 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, the same as the same period last season. The cumulative sugar - cane crushing was 87.029 million tons, an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar - production rate of 9.27% [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season is in a definite surplus. Although the short - term trade flow is in a tight - balance pattern, it will tend to be loose in the short and medium - term, suppressing the sugar - price rebound space. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic due to factors such as the expected decline in Brazil's sugar - production ratio and potential impacts of El Nino on India's precipitation [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the current supply is seasonally growing. The pressure of sugar imports in the fourth quarter is high, but the imports are expected to return to a low level in the off - season. The syrup volume in December has also decreased significantly after the adjustment of the control scope [4] Strategy - Neutral. In the short and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out, and the focus is on the domestic import - related policy changes in 2026 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5,254 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-1.31%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,335 yuan/ton, a change of -40 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp changed from stable to falling. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The downstream's pulp - purchasing mentality was rational, and the market transaction atmosphere was light. The prices of some imported pulp grades in various regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The proportion of trade pulp shipped to Europe is expected to increase, and the domestic import pressure may be relieved to some extent [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity expansion of finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry's profits were squeezed. Downstream paper mills' raw - material purchasing willingness was low, and domestic port inventories were at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and white cardboard and household paper will be the main growth points of demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement in pulp fundamentals is limited, and the port inventory remains high. The short - term pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [2][5][8] Report Core View - The global cotton supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose in 2025/26, with weak terminal demand and low - level oscillation of ICE US cotton in the short - term. In China, there is a large increase in cotton production, and the supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the whole year. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [2] - The global sugar market is in a state of definite surplus in the 2025/26 season. The short - and medium - term surplus pattern restricts the rebound of sugar prices, but long - term prices should not be overly pessimistic. China's sugar market has a new - season production increase expectation, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short - and medium - term [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and China's import pressure may be alleviated. However, the domestic paper industry has over - capacity, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,738 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [1] - As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan was about 859,000 tons, up 0.8% year - on - year. Domestic mills purchased about 773,000 tons, exported about 28,000 tons, and the unsold inventory in ginneries was about 59,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose in 2025/26. US cotton exports are weak, and ICE US cotton will oscillate at a low level in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward space is limited, but the upward drive is unclear [2] - Domestically, China's cotton production has increased significantly in 2025/26, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Traders are more willing to hold goods, and the basis is strengthening. Textile enterprises stocked up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply and demand are expected to be balanced, but there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the expectation of a decrease in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026/27 has been partially traded. The domestic demand support is limited, facing the pressure of internal - external price difference, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (+0.83%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi, the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 33.4306 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0971 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 4.029 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.788 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market is in surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, the tight balance of trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar price, but the trade flow will become looser after the second quarter. In the long - term, the price should not be overly pessimistic [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit outside the quota is at a high level, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter is high, but it will decrease in the off - season [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The decline space is limited, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out. 2026 may be the year to confirm the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in import - related policies [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,324 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was stable. The downstream pulp - purchasing enthusiasm was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas new production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills announced production cuts and conversions in the second half of 2025. In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The demand in Europe is expected to improve, and China's import pressure may be alleviated [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity investment in finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry was in a state of over - capacity. The paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious, and the port inventory was at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is expanding, and there will be marginal incremental demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, the port inventory remains high, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short - term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] 2. Core Views - The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are gradually being depleted, with a shortage of near - month arrivals. Affected by the macro - level recently, domestic soybean meal prices have been oscillating strongly. However, due to the expected high yield of the new - season Brazilian soybeans, the supply pressure will gradually be released in the future, and soybean meal prices are expected to mainly oscillate [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of grain farmers and traders to sell grains has improved, but the snowfall has slowed down the purchase and sales rhythm. On the demand side, the north - south port inventories are still relatively low, with a certain replenishment demand. Deep - processing and feed enterprises' inventories have increased significantly after previous restocking and are currently mainly purchasing as needed, lacking obvious guiding factors before the festival [4] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2750 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2276 yuan/ton, a change of - 11 yuan/ton (- 0.48%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 410 (a change of + 7 from the previous day); in Jiangsu, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 290 (a change of + 7 from the previous day); in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 290 (a change of - 13 from the previous day). In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2470 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 194 (a change of - 9 from the previous day) [1] - Market News: As of January 28, the sowing of the 2025/26 soybean season in Argentina was 99.5% complete, up from 96.2% a week ago. Currently, 83.8% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, slightly lower than the previous report [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are being gradually consumed, with less near - month arrivals. Waiting for the new - season Brazilian soybeans to arrive, and affected by the macro - level recently, domestic soybean meal prices are oscillating strongly. However, due to the high - yield pressure of the new - season Brazilian soybeans, the supply pressure will gradually be released in the future, and soybean meal prices are expected to mainly oscillate [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for soybean meal is neutral [3] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2261 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.44%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2513 yuan/ton, a change of - 8 yuan/ton (- 0.32%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C03 + 69 (no change from the previous day); in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS03 + 117 (a change of + 8 from the previous day) [3] - Market News: As of January 28, the corn planting area in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 97.2% of the total expected area (7.8 million hectares), up from 93.1% a week ago [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of grain farmers and traders to sell grains has improved, but the snowfall has slowed down the purchase and sales rhythm. The north - south port inventories are still relatively low, with a certain replenishment demand. Deep - processing and feed enterprises' inventories have increased significantly after previous restocking and are currently mainly purchasing as needed, lacking obvious guiding factors before the festival [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, although domestic soybean meal prices are currently running strong in the short - term due to the boost of US soybeans, the inventory of soybean meal and soybeans remains high. With the future release of the supply pressure from the new - season Brazilian soybeans, soybean meal prices are expected to run weakly [2] - In the corn market, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishment has gradually started, and the demand for deep - processing and feed enterprises to replenish stocks has increased. However, affected by snowfall, the arrival volume is low, and the corn purchase price has been raised accordingly. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly, while the domestic trade inventory in the southern port is still being consumed, and the price is high. Future attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2782 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 1.14% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 388, down 16 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 288, down 16 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 298, down 6 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 203, down 6 from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: On January 27, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters stated that Brazil's soybean exports in January are expected to be 3.23 million tons, lower than last week's estimate of 3.79 million tons; Brazil's soybean meal exports in January are expected to be 1.78 million tons, lower than last week's estimate of 1.82 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Futures**: The corn 2603 contract closed at 2274 yuan/ton yesterday, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract closed at 2530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 66, down 1 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS03 + 100, up 10 from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: As of January 24, Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn planting was 93.6% complete, compared with 90.7% last week, 93.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.8%. The harvest progress was 7.4%, compared with 4.4% last week, 6.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 9.3%. Brazil's 2025/26 second - season corn planting was 5.9% complete, compared with 0.8% last week, 6.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 9.3% [3] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal inventory is being continuously consumed but is still significantly higher than the historical average, and the soybean inventory also remains at a high level. Affected by the boost of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal prices are running strongly in the short - term, but the pressure of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest still exists. As the supply pressure is gradually released in the future, soybean meal prices are expected to run weakly [2] 3.2.2 Corn - With the approach of the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishment has gradually started. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing stocks, and the demand for deep - processing acquisitions has increased. However, affected by snowfall, the arrival volume is low, and the corn purchase price has been raised accordingly. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly. The inventory in the northern port has increased slightly, while the domestic trade inventory in the southern port is still being consumed, and the price is high. Feed enterprises are still mainly fulfilling contracts, and the current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Future attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] 3.3 Strategies - The strategy for the soybean meal market is to be cautiously bearish [3] - The strategy for the corn market is to be neutral [6]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean meal inventory is continuously being consumed but remains significantly higher than historical levels, and the soybean inventory also stays at a high level. Affected by the boost of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal prices are expected to run relatively strongly in the short - term. However, due to the upcoming harvest of new - season soybeans in Brazil, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and soybean meal prices are likely to weaken in the future [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are starting to stock up. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing stocks, and the purchase demand of deep - processing enterprises is increasing. Although the arrival volume is low due to snowfall, the purchase price of corn has been raised, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly. The inventory in the northern ports has slightly increased, while the domestic trade inventory in the southern ports is still being consumed. The price is relatively high, and feed enterprises are mainly fulfilling contracts. The current inventory is still lower than historical levels. Future attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [5] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2,766 yuan/ton, a change of - 3 yuan/ton (- 0.11%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2,271 yuan/ton, a change of + 2 yuan/ton (+ 0.09%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 404, a change of + 3 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 304, a change of + 3 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 304, a change of - 7 from the previous day. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 209, a change of - 2 from the previous day [1] - Market news: From January 26th, Brazilian export data showed that Brazil exported 1.522 million tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 95,000 tons, a 96% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 49,000 tons in the whole of January last year. The agricultural consulting firm AgRural reported that the soybean production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach 181 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 180.4 million tons. As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.324 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 900,000 - 1.55 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.345 million tons [2] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2,283 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.44%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 18 yuan/ton (- 0.70%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 67, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS03 + 90, a change of + 18 from the previous day [4] - Market news: The consulting firm AgRural predicted that the total corn production in Brazil's 2025/26 season would be 136.6 million tons, 600,000 tons higher than the December forecast but still lower than the record - high production of 141.1 million tons in the 2024/25 season. As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.51 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 1 - 1.7 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.486 million tons [4] Group 5: Figures - The report includes 44 figures related to the prices, production, consumption, inventory, and basis of soybean meal, corn, rapeseed meal, and corn starch, with data sourced from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7]