农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13295元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14755元/吨，较前一日变动-46元/吨，现货基差CF01+1460，较前一日变动-185；3128B棉全国均价14739元/吨， 较前一日变动-20元/吨，现货基差CF01+1444，较前一日变动-203。 近期市场资讯，巴西2025/26年度新棉供应放量，加上海外纺企刚需补库，装运节奏明显加快。9月巴西棉出口量为 17.9万吨，环比（7.7万吨）大幅增加130.8%，同比（17.0万吨）增加5.5%。从当月出口目的地看，中国为主要出 口国，出口量占总量的19%；巴基斯坦及越南出口量排第二，各占比15%；孟加拉出口量排第三，占比14%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价小幅反弹。国际方面，9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量，期初库存和期末库存继续调减， 全球库存创近四年低点，不过USDA对于中国等增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍 将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力增加，而美棉出口 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [4] - Sugar: Neutral [8] - Pulp: Neutral [11] 2. Core Views - Cotton: New cotton production increase expectations continue to suppress the market, and with the weak peak season in September and insufficient demand support, cotton prices still have the risk of further decline [4] - Sugar: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but there is cost support after continuous decline, so the short - term downside space may be limited [8] - Pulp: The current pulp fundamentals have insufficient improvement, the entire industry chain lacks positive driving forces, and short - term pulp prices may remain at the bottom and continue to fluctuate at a low level [11] 3. Summary by Industry Cotton - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the cotton 2601 contract was at 13,405 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline. Spot: Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan/ton. The national weighted average spot price was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton [1] - Internationally, from September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 upland cotton net signings were 19,527 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week. Shipments were 31,116 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week. As of September 23, about 49% of the US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [1] - Domestically, in August 2025, China's cotton cloth exports were 563 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.27% and a year - on - year increase of 14.20%. From January - August 2025, exports were 4.2 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 10.50% [2] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, the September USDA report increased global cotton production and consumption, and reduced beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [3] - Domestically, Xinjiang cottonseed has started to be purchased. The expected panic buying has not occurred. The estimated Xinjiang production is about 7.3 million tons, and the market may face pressure during the peak listing period [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the sugar 2601 contract was at 5,478 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase. Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar spot price was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Yunnan Kunming's was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [5] - Internationally, it is estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September was 45.92 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.6 million tons, a 15% year - on - year increase [5][6] - Domestically, as of September 23, two sugar enterprises in Inner Mongolia have started production for the 2025/26 season, and the estimated sugar production is 650,000 - 680,000 tons, slightly increasing from the previous season [6] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is increasing, and the short - term supply is strong, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. However, there is support from the ethanol price [7] - Domestically, sugar sales in August were poor, imports reached a new high, and beet sugar has started to be crushed, so the short - term supply is sufficient [7] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the pulp 2511 contract was at 5,016 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline. Spot: The average spot price of "Yinxing" softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,610 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the average price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [9] - Internationally, in August 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase, and inventory was 707,800 tons, an 11.34% year - on - year increase [9] - Domestically, the total pulp inventory in one region and eight ports decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, with an expanded decline [9] - **Market Analysis** - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have some positive impact, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the global supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port inventory remains high [10] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption has been weak. Domestic demand is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. Although there is new paper production capacity, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' purchasing is cautious [10]

Report Investment Ratings - The overall strategy for the cotton, sugar, and pulp markets is neutral [2][6][8] Core Views - Cotton: New cotton has support before large - scale listing, but pressure will be released during the centralized listing period. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: Affected by raw sugar, it may fall below the key support level, but there is cost support. In the medium - term, it should be treated with a bearish view [6] - Pulp: The fundamentals have insufficient improvement, and the short - term price may continue to fluctuate at a low level [8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,062 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [1] - India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from last year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - StoneX predicted that Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 2026/27 season would reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase [3] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5044 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis Cotton - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the export sales progress is slow [1] - Domestic: The cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the commercial inventory is at a low level, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure is large during the new - flower listing period [1] Sugar - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The production increase expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains, suppressing the raw sugar price [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic production and sales in August were not good, the import volume reached a new high, and the supply is sufficient in the short - term [4] Pulp - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: The consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the domestic demand is also soft, which suppresses the pulp price [7]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 11, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Focus: Agricultural product futures Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Lack of fundamental drivers, short - term correction [2] - Soybean oil: Uncertain US soybean oil policies, limited themes [2] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2] - Soybean: Oversold rebound [2] - Corn: Oscillating [2] - Sugar: Focus on Brazilian exports [2] - Cotton: Monitor the situation of new cotton listings [2] - Eggs: Short - term oscillation [2] - Live pigs: Weak spot market, strong policy [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2] Summary by Product Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures had a day - closing price of 9,244 yuan/ton with a - 2.55% decline and a night - closing price of 9,302 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase. Soybean oil futures had a day - closing price of 8,256 yuan/ton with a - 1.81% decline and a night - closing price of 8,290 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase [4]. - **News**: Malaysia's August palm oil inventory was 2,202,534 tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase; production was 1,855,008 tons, a 2.35% increase; exports were 1,324,672 tons, a 0.29% decrease; imports were 49,036 tons, a 19.66% decrease. Malaysia's September 1 - 10 palm oil exports decreased by 8.43% (AmSpec) and 1.2% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [5][6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2511 had a day - closing price of 3,911 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% decline and a night - closing price of 3,927 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase. DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - closing price of 3,066 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% decline and a night - closing price of 3,076 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [10]. - **News**: On September 10, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to concerns about Chinese demand and active position adjustments. Analysts expect the USDA to lower US soybean and corn yield forecasts on Friday, but the production is still expected to be high [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is +1 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511 had a day - closing price of 2,197 yuan/ton with a - 0.81% decline and a night - closing price of 2,200 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase. C2601 had a day - closing price of 2,170 yuan/ton with a - 0.96% decline and a night - closing price of 2,169 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% decline [14]. - **News**: Northern corn port collection prices were stable, while Guangdong Shekou prices increased. Other related grain prices also had different trends [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.54 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,920 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5,535 yuan/ton [17]. - **News**: Indian monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazilian sugar exports decreased in July and August. Conab lowered the 25/26 Brazilian sugar production forecast. China's sugar import and production data also had changes [17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 had a day - closing price of 13,855 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase and a night - closing price of 13,860 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. ICE cotton futures closed at 66.72 cents/pound, up 0.5% [22]. - **News**: The domestic cotton spot market had slightly better trading, mainly for textile enterprises' rigid demand procurement. The cotton yarn market was generally weak, and the ICE cotton futures rebounded [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510 had a closing price of 3,019 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.43% decline, and egg 2601 had a closing price of 3,353 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.56% decline [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,580 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts also had different values [29]. - **Market Logic**: At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, the group significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price rebounded. However, the weight increased again, and the supply in September was large. The 3 - 5 month cost may decline, and the 7 - month contract may have policy regulation [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is 0 [30]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of different peanut varieties and futures contracts had changes, such as the Liaoning 308 general - purpose peanut price was 7,700 yuan/ton, and PK510 had a closing price of 7,876 yuan/ton with a - 0.63% decline [33]. - **News**: The spot market had different situations in different regions. New peanuts were expected to be listed in October, and some regions had new peanuts with high moisture [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, with potential for improved US cotton supply - demand. Domestic cotton has a tight supply situation at the end of this season, but new - year production increase expectations limit the upside of cotton prices [2] - For sugar, the adjustment of syrup policy may cause short - term negative sentiment, but the low domestic sugar inventory restricts the continuous decline space [5] - For pulp, the current pulp market fundamentals have no significant improvement, and the short - term pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,010 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,352 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,451 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [1] - Overseas: As of August 29, India's new - year cotton planting area was 10.88 million hectares, a 2.3% decrease from last year. As of August 31, Pakistan's new - year ginned cotton equivalent was about 207,000 tons, a 50.5% increase from two weeks ago and an 8.6% increase from last year [1] Market Analysis - International: India extended the tariff - free period, and the USDA adjusted global cotton production and inventory, making the supply - demand pattern tight. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but the slow export sales limit the upside [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, and the commercial inventory is at a low level. The late - issued and limited - quantity sliding - scale duty quota did not solve the cotton shortage. With the approaching peak season, the domestic cotton price has strong support, but the new - year production increase and future hedging pressure limit the upside [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. In the short term, there is strong support for Zhengzhou cotton prices before the large - scale listing of new cotton. In the medium term, the peak listing period may face pressure, and there may be a decline if the peak season is disappointing [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,533 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-0.52%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - Overseas: Ukraine's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop from 1.8 million tons to 1.5 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugar production forecast has been lowered, and Pakistan's sugar purchase supports prices. However, with the peak crushing season in Brazil and the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere, the upside is limited [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The high import profit and large - scale imports in July, along with expected processed sugar supply in August - September, put pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the possible increase in syrup imports in August [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The syrup policy adjustment may cause short - term negative sentiment, but the low domestic sugar inventory restricts the decline space [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,052 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,715 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some price fluctuations among different pulp types [6] Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, the slow de - stocking at ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high, with hardwood pulp supply being looser [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is increasing. In China, the demand is weak during the off - season, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The planned new paper production capacity has not effectively increased the output due to insufficient terminal demand [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The short - term pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level due to the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: Short - term domestic cotton supply is tightening, and with the arrival of the peak season and the possibility of a rush to purchase, Zhengzhou cotton may show a bullish trend before the large - scale listing of new flowers. Medium - term, due to strong expectations of a bumper harvest in the new year, the market will face pressure during the centralized listing period. If the peak season fails to meet expectations, there may be a decline [3]. - Sugar: Due to the low inventory of domestic sugar and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices, there is some support for Zhengzhou sugar prices, and the short - term decline space may be limited [6]. - Pulp: The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the industry chain lacks positive drivers. Short - term pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,025 yuan/ton, a change of - 215 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.51%. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,392 yuan/ton, a change of + 149 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,479 yuan/ton, a change of + 151 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Recent market news: In July, Argentina exported 4,131 tons of cotton, a 17.9% decrease from the previous month and a 75% decrease year - on - year. From August 2024 to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative cotton exports were about 87,000 tons, a 26% decrease year - on - year [1]. Market Analysis - International: India extended the temporary tariff exemption period, which supported US cotton. In August, USDA significantly lowered the global cotton output and ending stocks, changing the supply - demand pattern from loose to tight. However, the output adjustments of some production - increasing countries by USDA may not be in place. The supply - demand expectation of US cotton is expected to improve, but the slow export sales progress restricts the upside space. Short - term ICE US cotton may be difficult to break through the 65 - 70 cents oscillation range. - Domestic: The inventory reduction speed of domestic cotton is continuously fast, and the commercial inventory has dropped to a historical low. Although the sliding - scale tariff quota has been issued, it has not effectively solved the problem of tight cotton use in Xinjiang. The supply - tight pattern at the end of this year remains unchanged. With the arrival of the peak season, demand has improved marginally, providing strong support for domestic cotton prices. The new cotton is growing well, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is increasing. Although the pre - sale of new cotton is hot, there may be a rush to purchase in the early stage due to over - capacity of ginning factories. However, the hedging pressure during the centralized listing of new flowers will limit the upside of cotton prices [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Before the large - scale listing of new flowers, Zhengzhou cotton may show a bullish trend; in the medium - term, there may be pressure during the centralized listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,609 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.09%. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,825 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's Conab and other institutions have lowered the sugar production forecast in the central - southern region. Pakistan's purchase of 100,000 tons of sugar has boosted prices. However, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the production - increasing expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains unchanged, so there is limited upside space. - Domestic: The profit of out - of - quota imports has been high for several months, and the import volume in July increased significantly year - on - year. Processed sugar in August - September is expected to impact the domestic spot market, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [6]. Strategy - Neutral. Due to low domestic sugar inventory and sugar mills' price - supporting intention, the short - term decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,040 yuan/ton, a change of + 22 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.44%. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (U - needle and B - needle) was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, due to the slow inventory reduction at ports and high inventory levels, the supply pressure of pulp remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills is emerging. In China, affected by the traditional off - season, demand is weak, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and paper mills are cautious in raw material procurement. Although there are plans to put into operation a large amount of finished paper production capacity this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Neutral. The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved, and short - term pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. Near the delivery, the September contract reduced positions and adjusted, with the futures price dropping significantly, and the 9 - 1 spread narrowing. After the November contract became the main contract, the price led the decline, and the January contract followed suit. The price range shifted downward. The price of Northeast corn has been weakly adjusted recently, and the market trading activity is poor. Traders have less remaining inventory, and the trading is also relatively light. Traders and deep - processing enterprises are mostly waiting for the new grain to be listed. The price of corn in North China has fluctuated, with an adjustment range of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong remains low, but the continuous arrival of spring corn in some deep - processing enterprises supplements the supply, and enterprises adjust the price slightly according to their own situation. The price of corn in the sales area has been slightly adjusted and generally runs stably. The port pick - up speed is average, and downstream enterprises mainly execute previous orders or use inventory. The market trading atmosphere is a bit light, and the new grain in the northwest has been sporadically listed, attracting high attention. Technically, with the November contract as the main contract, the supply pressure of the new grain listing continues to affect the market, and the corn futures price is expected to continue the oscillatory weak trend. However, it should be noted that the January contract should pay short - term attention to the price performance at the 2150 integer mark and be vigilant against the rebound after a sharp decline [1]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose, supported by the increase in soybean meal futures. The market is also paying attention to the results of the Midwest crop inspection. The second - day survey by Pro Farmer showed that the number of soybean pods in Indiana was slightly lower than the 2024 level, while the number of soybean pods in Nebraska reached the highest level in at least 22 years. The market is looking forward to the results of the export sales report on Thursday, with an expected net increase in soybean sales of 10 - 130 tons. In the domestic market, soybean meal oscillates. The spot market provides little guidance, and the supply remains in a relatively loose pattern. Currently, the market is waiting for further guidance on China's soybean procurement in the fourth quarter. The repeated fluctuations in Brazilian premiums and US soybean prices have led to a slightly stronger import cost. The market is still worried about the long - term supply, resulting in a relatively strong futures price. The strategy is to maintain a unilateral long - position thinking and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell due to profit - taking and the weakness of related markets, but the strong export data of Malaysian palm oil limited the decline. Shipping data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 13.6% - 17.5% month - on - month. The US soybean oil is waiting for the EPA's ruling on exempting some small refineries from the blending obligation. The market is worried that this may affect future vegetable oil demand. In the domestic market, the overall inventory pressure of the three major oils has increased, and the demand is still relatively weak, with the pre - school stocking demand not yet started. If the spot demand starts later, the supply - demand situation of oils is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The oil market is in a bullish trend. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - The price of eggs is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. On Wednesday, the main egg contract 2510 oscillated higher after opening and then declined. As of the close, it rose 0.23% to 3072 yuan/500 kilograms, and the near - month 2509 contract rose 0.57% to 3000 yuan/500 kilograms. In terms of spot prices, according to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.21 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month. Among the production areas, the price of Ningjin pink - shell eggs was 3.05 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month, and the price of Heishan brown - shell eggs was 2.9 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin month - on - month. Among the sales areas, the price of Puxi brown - shell eggs was 3.31 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month, and the price of Guangzhou brown - shell eggs was 3.33 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin month - on - month. The terminal digestion is average, and most traders purchase according to sales. The egg prices in most sales areas are stable, with a few showing a slight decline. In the future, egg demand will enter the peak season, and there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices. Considering the supply - side pressure, the peak is likely to be lower than that of last year. In the short term, the futures will continue to decline, and the intraday rally yesterday followed by a decline shows that the rebound momentum is insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish [1]. - The price of live pigs is expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the live pig futures oscillated, and the main 2511 contract fell 0.9% to 13775 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, according to Zhuochuang data, the daily average price of live pigs in China yesterday was 13.78 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg month - on - month. The average price of live pigs in the standard delivery area of Henan remained flat month - on - month, while the prices in Guangdong, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Shandong increased to varying degrees. In the northern region, the breeding side continued to reduce supply and hold back sales, and downstream enterprises increased the purchase price. Affected by the north, the breeding side in the south has a mentality of driving up prices and mostly holds back sales, supporting the rise in pig prices. According to the seasonal pattern, as the high - temperature weather subsides in various places in the future, demand will recover. Coupled with the main theme of anti - involution, there is support for pig prices. However, the abundant supply still exerts pressure on pig prices. The live pig spot price has rebounded slightly at a low level, and the futures will continue to oscillate weakly. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of policies and market sentiment on the live pig futures price [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The direct impact of US market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited. In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US were 191,231 tons, accounting for only 1.1% of the annual export volume. The Malaysian government will continue to provide assistance through measures such as the oil palm small - farmer replanting financing incentive plan, including providing special subsidy products for preventing Ganoderma disease [3]. - In July, the rapeseed crushing volume of the 27 EU countries and the UK was 134.0 million tons, up from 123.7 million tons in June but down from 156.9 million tons in July 2024. The soybean crushing volume was 104.6 million tons, down from 115.1 million tons in June and 112.6 million tons in July 2024. The total oilseed crushing volume in Europe in July was 259.3 million tons, lower than 275.4 million tons in June and 313.6 million tons in July 2024 [3]. - US private exporters reported sales of 125,741 tons of corn to Mexico and 100,000 tons of corn to Colombia for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [4]. - Malaysian independent inspection机构 Amspec showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.5%. Shipping survey机构 ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis data for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these data is provided [5][13]

Group 1: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The raw sugar price declined slightly due to strong production signs. It's difficult for the raw sugar price to break below the previous low in the short - term, but a bearish view is maintained considering the increasing production pattern. Zheng sugar rebounded due to the strengthening of the commodity market, but the increase in imports and weak terminal demand are expected to keep it bearish after the rebound [2][3] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of "Sugar 2601" was 5657 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; "Sugar 2509" was 5722 yuan/ton, up 0.28%; ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.83 cents/pound, down 0.71%. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar was - 65 yuan/ton, up 33.67%. The position of the main contract increased by 1.22%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [2] - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5970 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The Nanning basis decreased by 2.36%, while the Kunming basis increased by 22.02%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4476 yuan/ton, up 1.24%; (out - quota) was 5686 yuan/ton, up 1.28% [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 (unit not specified), up 12.03% year - on - year. The cumulative sales volume was 811.38 (unit not specified), up 23.07%. The cumulative production in Guangxi was 646.50 (unit not specified), up 4.59%. The monthly sales volume in Guangxi decreased by 3.26%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.59%, up 9.70%; in Guangxi, it was 71.85%, up 8.11%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 9.56%, and in Guangxi, it decreased by 12.23%. The sugar import volume increased by 160%. ISMA predicted that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 34.9 million tons, up 18% year - on - year [2] Group 2: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The corn futures rebounded due to the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and the bullish USDA August report. However, the supply will gradually ease due to continuous import corn auctions and the upcoming new grain harvest in some areas. The market sentiment is weak, and the spot price is stable but weak with a slowing decline. In the short - term, the upward movement of the futures is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long - term [4] Summary by Directory - **Corn Futures**: The price of "Corn 2509" at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2279 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The basis decreased by 47.50%. The 9 - 1 spread was 75 yuan/ton, up 11.94%. The profit of north - south trade decreased by 26.32%. The arrival of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 25.81%. The trading volume decreased by 1.92%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.87% [4] - **Corn Starch**: The price of "Corn Starch 2509" was 2651 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The basis decreased by 9.23%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 21.69%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 10.75%. The position decreased by 4.69%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4] Group 3: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The domestic cotton price may trade in a range in the short - term. The downstream has short - term rigid demand support, but the market lacks confidence in the future improvement, and the cotton price is under pressure [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of "Cotton 2505" was 14090 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; "Cotton 2509" was 13830 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. ICE US cotton主力 was 67.70 cents/pound, down 1.08%. The 5 - 9 spread was 260 yuan/ton, up 48.57%. The position of the main contract increased by 10.41%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.00%, and the effective forecast decreased by 0.35% [7] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15057 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15188 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13697 yuan/ton, up 2.20% [7] - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.8%, the import volume decreased by 25%, the bonded area inventory decreased by 8%, the textile industry's inventory year - on - year decreased by 57.9%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 2.4%, the grey fabric inventory days decreased by 3.0%, the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit increased by 1.8%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textiles increased by 4.1%, and the year - on - year of the same month decreased by 52.5% [7] Group 4: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory is continuously rising, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, suppressing the spot price. The anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and the USDA report affected the market. The domestic rapeseed meal supply is tightening, and the support from US soybeans is strengthening. It is recommended to hold the previous 01 long positions [9] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 3090 yuan/ton, up 5.10%. The price of M2601 was 3163 yuan/ton, up 2.33%. The basis of M2601 was - 73, up 51.66%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 17.7% [9] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 2660 yuan/ton, up 3.83%. The price of RM2601 was 2688 yuan/ton, up 4.92%. The basis of RM2601 was - 28. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract of "Bean 1" was 4107 yuan/ton, up 1.81%. The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3700 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The price of the main contract of "Bean 2" was 3829 yuan/ton, up 2.00% [9] Group 5: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of live pigs stabilized, and the downstream procurement was smooth. However, the farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices supported the price. The supply and demand are both weak. The group farms' slaughter is expected to continue to recover in August, and the future price is not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, with strong support at the bottom, but the impact of hedging funds needs attention [11] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract increased by 31.30%. The price of "Pig 2511" was 14045 yuan/ton, down 1.30%; "Pig 2601" was 14295 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The 11 - 1 spread decreased by 28.21%. The position of the main contract increased by 8.78% [11] - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 13900 yuan/ton, up 50; in Shandong was 13800 yuan/ton, up 200; in Sichuan was 13500 yuan/ton, up 50; in Liaoning was 13350 yuan/ton, up 50; in Guangdong was 13860 yuan/ton, up 100; in Hunan was 13800 yuan/ton, up 50; in Hebei was 13800 yuan/ton, up 50 [11] - **Industry Indicators**: The daily sample slaughter volume increased by 0.50%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.25%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.70%, the weekly sow price increased by 0.03%, and the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.14% [11] Group 6: Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise and may approach 4500 ringgit and even break through to 4580 - 4600 ringgit. The domestic palm oil futures may also follow suit and may冲击 10000 yuan. Soybean oil: The US Department of Agriculture's report increased the supply data of soybean oil in 2025/26. Although the ending inventory increased, the decrease in US soybean production and ending inventory boosted the short - term rise of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil. The domestic spot price rose with the market, and the basis quotation fluctuated slightly [15] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8840 yuan/ton, up 1.96%. The price of Y2601 was 8592 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. The basis increased by 36.26% [15] - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9380 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The price of P2601 was 9424 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The basis increased by 56.86% [15] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10260 yuan/ton, up 5.12%. The price of OI601 was 10069 yuan/ton, up 2.72%. The basis increased by 554.76% [15] Group 7: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price has reached a phased low, and the downstream may increase procurement, which will support the price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - storage eggs may suppress the price increase. The egg futures are expected to remain bearish, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [17][18] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3277 yuan/500KG, down 1.03%; the 10 contract was 3185 yuan/500KG, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 19.19%, and the 9 - 10 spread decreased by 19.30% [17] - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged at 3.85 yuan/feather, the price of culled chickens was 5.67 yuan/jin, down 3.57%, the egg - feed ratio was 2.45, down 7.20%, and the breeding profit was - 21.44 yuan/feather, down 111.23% [17]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2]. - Soybean oil: As US soybeans are strong, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - Soybean meal: Following the rise of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate stronger [2]. - Soybean: Expected to fluctuate in a corrective manner [2]. - Corn: Expected to move in a range [2]. - Sugar: Expected to rise in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Cotton: The expected bumper harvest of new crops restricts the upward potential of futures prices [2]. - Eggs: Expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Hogs: Spot prices are mainly weak [2]. - Peanuts: Near - term contracts are stronger than long - term contracts [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase, and the night - session was 9,486 yuan/ton with the same increase. For soybean oil, the daily - session was 8,592 yuan/ton (+1.23%), and the night - session was 8,554 yuan/ton (- 0.44%). Rapeseed oil's daily - session was 10,069 yuan/ton (+2.72%), and the night - session was 9,976 yuan/ton (- 0.92%). Trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia raised the reference price of crude palm oil for September, increasing the export tax to 10%. Indonesia saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Argentina's soybean sales and Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production forecasts changed [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,163 yuan/ton (+2.90%), and the night - session was 3,166 yuan/ton (+0.67%). DCE soybean 2511's daily - session was 4,107 yuan/ton (+1.83%), and the night - session was 4,080 yuan/ton (- 0.17%). Spot prices and industry data such as trading volume and inventory also had changes [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 13, CBOT soybean futures rose for the third consecutive day due to the USDA's lower - than - expected soybean production forecast [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, and soybean is 0 [11]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and basis had corresponding changes. For example, C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,279 yuan/ton (+0.89%), and the night - session was 2,286 yuan/ton (+0.31%) [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in different regions showed different trends, and the prices of imported sorghum and barley were also reported [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.85 cents/pound (- 0.09%), the mainstream spot price was 5,980 yuan/ton (+30), and the futures main - contract price was 5,657 yuan/ton (+49). Price spreads also had changes [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In Brazil, the sugar - cane crushing progress accelerated in the first half of July, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased. China's sugar imports in June were 420,000 tons. There are supply - demand forecasts for the domestic and international sugar markets [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,130 yuan/ton (+1.07%), and the night - session was 14,120 yuan/ton (- 0.07%). ICE cotton futures fell slightly. Spot prices of cotton in different regions increased slightly [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading improved slightly, the cotton yarn market improved, and the US Department of Agriculture significantly lowered the production forecast of US cotton in the 2025/26 season [21][22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26]. Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Hog spot and futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. For example, the Henan spot price was 13,930 yuan/ton (+50) [30]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and demand growth was limited. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the market is under pressure. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 1 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Peanut spot and futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. For example, the price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton with no change [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts in some regions are starting to be listed, and the prices of old peanuts are mostly stable. The growth of new peanuts is good [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36].

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the cotton, sugar, and pulp sectors are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted in the short - term and will face new pressure in the fourth quarter with new cotton listing [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and terminal demand improvement is limited. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Directory Cotton Market News and Key Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [1] - Vietnamese textile enterprises have low interest in raw material procurement, and some ring - spinning factories plan to reduce the operating rate [1] Market Analysis - Globally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient, and the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. US cotton has high sown area, improved drought, and weak export contracts [2] - Domestically, commercial inventory is decreasing fast, but new cotton has a strong yield - increasing expectation. Terminal demand is weak, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,683 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4] - As of August 1, 2025, the sugarcane planting area in India was about 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 0.164 million hectares compared to the same period last year. The 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - International raw sugar is under pressure due to Brazil's accelerated crushing in the first half of July and optimistic production estimates in India and Thailand [4] - Domestically, domestic sugar sales progress is fast, but import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space. There may be a tight - inventory situation in the fourth quarter, but new - season production increase will bring downward pressure [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term sugar futures are expected to fluctuate within a range, and long - term prices are expected to decline [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Russian softwood pulp price was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The import wood pulp spot market was mainly stable, with only sporadic price increases [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. Paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious, and terminal demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [8]