1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. Near the delivery, the September contract reduced positions and adjusted, with the futures price dropping significantly, and the 9 - 1 spread narrowing. After the November contract became the main contract, the price led the decline, and the January contract followed suit. The price range shifted downward. The price of Northeast corn has been weakly adjusted recently, and the market trading activity is poor. Traders have less remaining inventory, and the trading is also relatively light. Traders and deep - processing enterprises are mostly waiting for the new grain to be listed. The price of corn in North China has fluctuated, with an adjustment range of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong remains low, but the continuous arrival of spring corn in some deep - processing enterprises supplements the supply, and enterprises adjust the price slightly according to their own situation. The price of corn in the sales area has been slightly adjusted and generally runs stably. The port pick - up speed is average, and downstream enterprises mainly execute previous orders or use inventory. The market trading atmosphere is a bit light, and the new grain in the northwest has been sporadically listed, attracting high attention. Technically, with the November contract as the main contract, the supply pressure of the new grain listing continues to affect the market, and the corn futures price is expected to continue the oscillatory weak trend. However, it should be noted that the January contract should pay short - term attention to the price performance at the 2150 integer mark and be vigilant against the rebound after a sharp decline [1]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose, supported by the increase in soybean meal futures. The market is also paying attention to the results of the Midwest crop inspection. The second - day survey by Pro Farmer showed that the number of soybean pods in Indiana was slightly lower than the 2024 level, while the number of soybean pods in Nebraska reached the highest level in at least 22 years. The market is looking forward to the results of the export sales report on Thursday, with an expected net increase in soybean sales of 10 - 130 tons. In the domestic market, soybean meal oscillates. The spot market provides little guidance, and the supply remains in a relatively loose pattern. Currently, the market is waiting for further guidance on China's soybean procurement in the fourth quarter. The repeated fluctuations in Brazilian premiums and US soybean prices have led to a slightly stronger import cost. The market is still worried about the long - term supply, resulting in a relatively strong futures price. The strategy is to maintain a unilateral long - position thinking and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell due to profit - taking and the weakness of related markets, but the strong export data of Malaysian palm oil limited the decline. Shipping data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 13.6% - 17.5% month - on - month. The US soybean oil is waiting for the EPA's ruling on exempting some small refineries from the blending obligation. The market is worried that this may affect future vegetable oil demand. In the domestic market, the overall inventory pressure of the three major oils has increased, and the demand is still relatively weak, with the pre - school stocking demand not yet started. If the spot demand starts later, the supply - demand situation of oils is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The oil market is in a bullish trend. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - The price of eggs is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. On Wednesday, the main egg contract 2510 oscillated higher after opening and then declined. As of the close, it rose 0.23% to 3072 yuan/500 kilograms, and the near - month 2509 contract rose 0.57% to 3000 yuan/500 kilograms. In terms of spot prices, according to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.21 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month. Among the production areas, the price of Ningjin pink - shell eggs was 3.05 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month, and the price of Heishan brown - shell eggs was 2.9 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin month - on - month. Among the sales areas, the price of Puxi brown - shell eggs was 3.31 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month, and the price of Guangzhou brown - shell eggs was 3.33 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin month - on - month. The terminal digestion is average, and most traders purchase according to sales. The egg prices in most sales areas are stable, with a few showing a slight decline. In the future, egg demand will enter the peak season, and there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices. Considering the supply - side pressure, the peak is likely to be lower than that of last year. In the short term, the futures will continue to decline, and the intraday rally yesterday followed by a decline shows that the rebound momentum is insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish [1]. - The price of live pigs is expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the live pig futures oscillated, and the main 2511 contract fell 0.9% to 13775 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, according to Zhuochuang data, the daily average price of live pigs in China yesterday was 13.78 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg month - on - month. The average price of live pigs in the standard delivery area of Henan remained flat month - on - month, while the prices in Guangdong, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Shandong increased to varying degrees. In the northern region, the breeding side continued to reduce supply and hold back sales, and downstream enterprises increased the purchase price. Affected by the north, the breeding side in the south has a mentality of driving up prices and mostly holds back sales, supporting the rise in pig prices. According to the seasonal pattern, as the high - temperature weather subsides in various places in the future, demand will recover. Coupled with the main theme of anti - involution, there is support for pig prices. However, the abundant supply still exerts pressure on pig prices. The live pig spot price has rebounded slightly at a low level, and the futures will continue to oscillate weakly. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of policies and market sentiment on the live pig futures price [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The direct impact of US market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited. In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US were 191,231 tons, accounting for only 1.1% of the annual export volume. The Malaysian government will continue to provide assistance through measures such as the oil palm small - farmer replanting financing incentive plan, including providing special subsidy products for preventing Ganoderma disease [3]. - In July, the rapeseed crushing volume of the 27 EU countries and the UK was 134.0 million tons, up from 123.7 million tons in June but down from 156.9 million tons in July 2024. The soybean crushing volume was 104.6 million tons, down from 115.1 million tons in June and 112.6 million tons in July 2024. The total oilseed crushing volume in Europe in July was 259.3 million tons, lower than 275.4 million tons in June and 313.6 million tons in July 2024 [3]. - US private exporters reported sales of 125,741 tons of corn to Mexico and 100,000 tons of corn to Colombia for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [4]. - Malaysian independent inspection机构 Amspec showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.5%. Shipping survey机构 ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis data for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these data is provided [5][13]

Group 1: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The raw sugar price declined slightly due to strong production signs. It's difficult for the raw sugar price to break below the previous low in the short - term, but a bearish view is maintained considering the increasing production pattern. Zheng sugar rebounded due to the strengthening of the commodity market, but the increase in imports and weak terminal demand are expected to keep it bearish after the rebound [2][3] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of "Sugar 2601" was 5657 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; "Sugar 2509" was 5722 yuan/ton, up 0.28%; ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.83 cents/pound, down 0.71%. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar was - 65 yuan/ton, up 33.67%. The position of the main contract increased by 1.22%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [2] - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5970 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The Nanning basis decreased by 2.36%, while the Kunming basis increased by 22.02%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4476 yuan/ton, up 1.24%; (out - quota) was 5686 yuan/ton, up 1.28% [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 (unit not specified), up 12.03% year - on - year. The cumulative sales volume was 811.38 (unit not specified), up 23.07%. The cumulative production in Guangxi was 646.50 (unit not specified), up 4.59%. The monthly sales volume in Guangxi decreased by 3.26%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.59%, up 9.70%; in Guangxi, it was 71.85%, up 8.11%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 9.56%, and in Guangxi, it decreased by 12.23%. The sugar import volume increased by 160%. ISMA predicted that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 34.9 million tons, up 18% year - on - year [2] Group 2: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The corn futures rebounded due to the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and the bullish USDA August report. However, the supply will gradually ease due to continuous import corn auctions and the upcoming new grain harvest in some areas. The market sentiment is weak, and the spot price is stable but weak with a slowing decline. In the short - term, the upward movement of the futures is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long - term [4] Summary by Directory - **Corn Futures**: The price of "Corn 2509" at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2279 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The basis decreased by 47.50%. The 9 - 1 spread was 75 yuan/ton, up 11.94%. The profit of north - south trade decreased by 26.32%. The arrival of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 25.81%. The trading volume decreased by 1.92%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.87% [4] - **Corn Starch**: The price of "Corn Starch 2509" was 2651 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The basis decreased by 9.23%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 21.69%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 10.75%. The position decreased by 4.69%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4] Group 3: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The domestic cotton price may trade in a range in the short - term. The downstream has short - term rigid demand support, but the market lacks confidence in the future improvement, and the cotton price is under pressure [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of "Cotton 2505" was 14090 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; "Cotton 2509" was 13830 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. ICE US cotton主力 was 67.70 cents/pound, down 1.08%. The 5 - 9 spread was 260 yuan/ton, up 48.57%. The position of the main contract increased by 10.41%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.00%, and the effective forecast decreased by 0.35% [7] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15057 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15188 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13697 yuan/ton, up 2.20% [7] - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.8%, the import volume decreased by 25%, the bonded area inventory decreased by 8%, the textile industry's inventory year - on - year decreased by 57.9%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 2.4%, the grey fabric inventory days decreased by 3.0%, the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit increased by 1.8%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textiles increased by 4.1%, and the year - on - year of the same month decreased by 52.5% [7] Group 4: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory is continuously rising, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, suppressing the spot price. The anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and the USDA report affected the market. The domestic rapeseed meal supply is tightening, and the support from US soybeans is strengthening. It is recommended to hold the previous 01 long positions [9] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 3090 yuan/ton, up 5.10%. The price of M2601 was 3163 yuan/ton, up 2.33%. The basis of M2601 was - 73, up 51.66%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 17.7% [9] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 2660 yuan/ton, up 3.83%. The price of RM2601 was 2688 yuan/ton, up 4.92%. The basis of RM2601 was - 28. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract of "Bean 1" was 4107 yuan/ton, up 1.81%. The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3700 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The price of the main contract of "Bean 2" was 3829 yuan/ton, up 2.00% [9] Group 5: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of live pigs stabilized, and the downstream procurement was smooth. However, the farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices supported the price. The supply and demand are both weak. The group farms' slaughter is expected to continue to recover in August, and the future price is not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, with strong support at the bottom, but the impact of hedging funds needs attention [11] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract increased by 31.30%. The price of "Pig 2511" was 14045 yuan/ton, down 1.30%; "Pig 2601" was 14295 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The 11 - 1 spread decreased by 28.21%. The position of the main contract increased by 8.78% [11] - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 13900 yuan/ton, up 50; in Shandong was 13800 yuan/ton, up 200; in Sichuan was 13500 yuan/ton, up 50; in Liaoning was 13350 yuan/ton, up 50; in Guangdong was 13860 yuan/ton, up 100; in Hunan was 13800 yuan/ton, up 50; in Hebei was 13800 yuan/ton, up 50 [11] - **Industry Indicators**: The daily sample slaughter volume increased by 0.50%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.25%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.70%, the weekly sow price increased by 0.03%, and the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.14% [11] Group 6: Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise and may approach 4500 ringgit and even break through to 4580 - 4600 ringgit. The domestic palm oil futures may also follow suit and may冲击 10000 yuan. Soybean oil: The US Department of Agriculture's report increased the supply data of soybean oil in 2025/26. Although the ending inventory increased, the decrease in US soybean production and ending inventory boosted the short - term rise of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil. The domestic spot price rose with the market, and the basis quotation fluctuated slightly [15] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8840 yuan/ton, up 1.96%. The price of Y2601 was 8592 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. The basis increased by 36.26% [15] - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9380 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The price of P2601 was 9424 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The basis increased by 56.86% [15] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10260 yuan/ton, up 5.12%. The price of OI601 was 10069 yuan/ton, up 2.72%. The basis increased by 554.76% [15] Group 7: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price has reached a phased low, and the downstream may increase procurement, which will support the price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - storage eggs may suppress the price increase. The egg futures are expected to remain bearish, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [17][18] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3277 yuan/500KG, down 1.03%; the 10 contract was 3185 yuan/500KG, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 19.19%, and the 9 - 10 spread decreased by 19.30% [17] - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged at 3.85 yuan/feather, the price of culled chickens was 5.67 yuan/jin, down 3.57%, the egg - feed ratio was 2.45, down 7.20%, and the breeding profit was - 21.44 yuan/feather, down 111.23% [17]

2025年08月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地供需两旺，低多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏强，豆油高位震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕或跟随偏强震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：回调震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：震荡上行 | 7 | | 棉花：新作丰产预期限制期价涨幅 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：现货弱势为主 | 11 | | 花生：近强远弱 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 14 日 研 究 棕榈油：产地供需两旺，低多为主 豆油：美豆偏强，豆油高位震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,424 | 涨跌幅 0.66% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,486 | 涨跌幅 0.66% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the cotton, sugar, and pulp sectors are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted in the short - term and will face new pressure in the fourth quarter with new cotton listing [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and terminal demand improvement is limited. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Directory Cotton Market News and Key Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [1] - Vietnamese textile enterprises have low interest in raw material procurement, and some ring - spinning factories plan to reduce the operating rate [1] Market Analysis - Globally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient, and the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. US cotton has high sown area, improved drought, and weak export contracts [2] - Domestically, commercial inventory is decreasing fast, but new cotton has a strong yield - increasing expectation. Terminal demand is weak, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,683 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4] - As of August 1, 2025, the sugarcane planting area in India was about 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 0.164 million hectares compared to the same period last year. The 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - International raw sugar is under pressure due to Brazil's accelerated crushing in the first half of July and optimistic production estimates in India and Thailand [4] - Domestically, domestic sugar sales progress is fast, but import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space. There may be a tight - inventory situation in the fourth quarter, but new - season production increase will bring downward pressure [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term sugar futures are expected to fluctuate within a range, and long - term prices are expected to decline [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Russian softwood pulp price was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The import wood pulp spot market was mainly stable, with only sporadic price increases [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. Paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious, and terminal demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [8]

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices face constraints in the short - term and new pressure in the fourth quarter [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] - The pulp market has supply pressure and limited demand improvement. Short - term pulp prices may stay at the bottom [8] Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 points slower than last year and 1 point slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 55%, 10 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International cotton prices lack obvious drivers and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. Domestic cotton prices face constraints due to slow inventory drawdown, low import in the third quarter, and weak terminal demand. In the fourth quarter, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy and treat Zhengzhou cotton as under pressure and in a volatile pattern in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,697 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area is expected to be 9.1685 million hectares, down 0.6% from last month's estimate and 0.2% from 2024. The production is estimated to be 693 million tons, down 0.1% from last month's estimate and 1.9% from 2024 [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar is in a weak - volatile pattern due to Brazil's accelerated crushing and good supply prospects. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in a range in the short - term and may have a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and a long - term bearish trend [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,160 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market continued to decline, with prices of some grades in different regions falling [7] Market Analysis - The pulp market has supply pressure due to high port inventory and expected production. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, with limited improvement expected in the second half of the year [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term pulp prices to stay at the bottom [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted by factors such as new cotton production expectations and weak terminal demand. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there may be a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but the price may decline when new sugar is listed in large quantities [6] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,069 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,153 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton. The downstream market is in a wait - and - see state, and the yarn mill operating rate has declined slightly [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market is expected to be loose, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestically, the cotton inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the new cotton has a strong production increase expectation, and the terminal demand is weak [2] Strategy - Take a bearish and oscillatory view of Zhengzhou cotton in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. India's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased supply from Brazil and optimistic production estimates in the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited by import expectations, with short - term range - bound fluctuations and a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter, but price decline pressure when new sugar is listed [6] Strategy - Expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and take a bearish view in the long term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,225 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market is weak [8] Market Analysis - In the second half of 2025, the pulp supply pressure remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - The pulp market lacks positive drivers, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is generally under pressure. Eggs, corn, and sugar are in a downward trend, while soybean meal has limited upward space and may face downward pressure later. Cotton is in a short - term rebound but the downward trend remains. Other products such as palm oil, pork, etc. also show different degrees of decline or unfavorable fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of eggs has plummeted, hitting a new low this year. The supply is abundant with high egg - laying hen inventory, slow old - hen culling, and increasing newly - laid hens. The demand side has a postponed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking cycle, and high - temperature weather has increased egg substitutes and affected logistics, leading to low - price selling by farmers [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is running far below the moving - average system, with a MACD death cross and a significant increase in the green column, showing a weak technical pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 3330 and resistance at 3400 [3]. Corn - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of corn continues to decline. The regular auction of corn by the State Grain Reserve, wheat substitution, and the approaching listing of spring corn have increased supply. The demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is weak [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the 2300 integer mark, with a MACD death cross below the zero axis and the appearance of a green column, indicating a weak technical pattern [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 2274 and resistance at 2300 [4]. Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The 2509 contract of soybean meal fluctuates upward but with limited amplitude. The increase in soybean import costs provides support, and the downstream demand has slightly improved. However, the high - volume crushing of oil mills has led to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has once stood above the moving - average system, showing a slightly strong technical pattern [6]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [6]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of cotton rebounds at a low level due to short - covering, but the downward trend remains. The new - year cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the market anticipates the issuance of sliding - duty quotas. The textile industry is in a slack season with insufficient orders [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still under the pressure of the medium - term moving average, with a MACD death cross and a continuous green column, showing a weak technical pattern [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 13535 and resistance at 13715 [8]. Soybean Oil - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil fluctuates narrowly at a high level. High - volume crushing by domestic oil mills has led to continuous inventory accumulation, but exports to India have boosted prices. The supply - demand pattern remains supply - strong and demand - weak [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still above the moving - average system, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and a continuous red MACD column, showing a strong technical pattern [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position long position, with support at 8176 and resistance at 8300 [10]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of palm oil fluctuates downward. The weak fundamentals of increasing production and decreasing exports in Malaysia have pressured the price, and the domestic demand is still sluggish [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [12]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 8740 and resistance at 8850 [12]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The 2509 contract of pigs continues to decline, hitting a one - and - a - half - month low. The supply has increased due to factors such as disease risks and incremental slaughter by group pig enterprises, while the demand is weak [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has continuously closed with negative lines, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [14]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 13770 and resistance at 14000 [14]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, hitting a one - month low. The overseas market has increased production, and the domestic market is under pressure from the expected increase in imported sugar [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the moving - average system and expanded the downward space, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 5700 and resistance at 5750 [16]. Jujubes - **Market Situation**: The main 2601 contract of jujubes rises and then falls, fluctuating at a high level. The estimated new - jujube production is slightly lower than expected, and the consumption is in the off - season. The futures market is still in a game about the new - jujube production reduction [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price fluctuates above the moving averages, with a MACD golden cross and an enlarged red column [19]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position long position, with support at 10810 and resistance at 11150 [19]. Apples - **Market Situation**: The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds with the support of short - covering, but the space may be limited. The price of early - maturing apples in the west is falling, and the trading of stored apples in Shandong is slow [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still under the pressure of the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [22]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with support at 7736 and resistance at 7865 [22].

1. Investment Ratings - The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views 2.1. Oil and Fat Industry - Palm oil prices are under downward pressure due to declining export data and potential increases in production and inventory. Domestic palm oil is expected to have a phased adjustment, with attention on the 8800 yuan support level. - Soybean oil prices are affected by the unoptimistic outlook for US soybean exports in the fourth quarter and good weather in the US Midwest, which strengthens the expectation of a bumper harvest. However, cost support and increasing demand may limit the decline in prices and the basis quote. - Overall, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate and rise [1]. 2.2. Pig Industry - The pig spot market has stabilized, but short - term prices are still not optimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation. The spot is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, with strong resistance for the near - month 09 contract. The far - month contracts are affected by policies, and while blind short - selling is not recommended, the impact of hedging funds should be noted [3]. 2.3. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market's rise and fall are limited, and the market will maintain an interval - oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the long term, the supply in the third quarter is tight, which supports prices, while the supply in the fourth quarter may be loose [5]. 2.4. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The Brazilian sugarcane yield and quality in June decreased, and the market speculates that India may have a bumper harvest and export. The short - term price of raw sugar is expected to have a bottom, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents/pound. Domestically, the import volume in June increased, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be bearish after a rebound [8]. 2.5. Meal Industry - The US soybean market is weak due to the lack of positive news and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm, and the pressure on US soybeans is significant. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, and the short - term supply is sufficient. However, there are concerns about future supply after October. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10]. 2.6. Cotton Industry - The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, while the weakening of demand is weakening marginally. The short - term domestic cotton price is expected to oscillate within an interval, and the price will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. 2.7. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather affects the egg production rate. The demand for eggs is expected to first decrease and then increase this week. Next week, the egg price in some areas may decline, but then there may be an increase in demand and an upward space for the spot price. The futures price remains weak due to production capacity [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1. Price Changes - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8380 yuan, down 40 yuan (-0.48%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8192 yuan, down 48 yuan (-0.58%); the basis of Y2509 increased by 8 yuan (4.44%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 13709 (-100%). - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan, down 70 yuan (-0.78%); the futures price of P2509 was 8900 yuan, down 82 yuan (-0.91%); the basis of P2509 increased by 12 yuan (150%); the warehouse receipt remained unchanged. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan, down 80 yuan (-0.83%); the futures price of OI2509 was 9510 yuan, down 111 yuan (-1.15%); the basis of OI2509 increased by 28 yuan (52.54%); the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [1]. 3.1.2. Spread Changes - The rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 40 yuan (-3.17%); the soybean - palm oil spread increased by 30 yuan (5.26%) in the spot market and 34 yuan (4.58%) in the 2509 contract [1]. 3.2. Pig Industry 3.2.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of the main contract decreased by 220 yuan (-1.56%); the 9 - 11 spread increased by 220 (733.33%); the main contract's open interest decreased by 7850 (-14.80%). - Spot: Pig prices in various regions increased, with the largest increase of 400 yuan in Henan [3]. 3.2.2. Industry Indicators - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 200 (-0.37%); the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.1 (-0.48%); the self - breeding profit decreased by 28.7 yuan (-31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 52.7 yuan (-282.58%); the monthly inventory of reproductive sows increased by 10,000 (0.02%) [3]. 3.3. Corn Industry 3.3.1. Corn - Futures: The price of corn 2509 decreased by 24 yuan (-1.04%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan (-15.96%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 2500 (-1.60%). - Spot: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan (-0.43%); the north - south trade profit decreased by 10 yuan (-111.11%); the import profit decreased by 29 yuan (-6.58%); the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 152 (70.70%); the trading volume increased by 50092 (3.18%) [5]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - Futures: The price of corn starch 2509 decreased by 23 yuan (-0.86%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4 yuan (-4.60%); the spread between starch and corn increased by 1 yuan (0.27%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 2573 (-100%). - Spot: The prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged; the basis increased by 23 yuan (766.67%); the profit in Shandong increased by 20 yuan (16.67%); the open interest increased by 4920 (1.79%) [5]. 3.4. Sugar Industry 3.4.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 11 yuan (-0.19%); the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 11 yuan (-0.19%); the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.11 cents (-0.67%); the 1 - 9 spread remained unchanged; the main contract's open interest decreased by 21949 (-7.92%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 47 (-0.24%). - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 20 yuan (-0.33%); the price in Kunming increased by 20 yuan (0.34%); the basis in Nanning decreased by 9 yuan (-3.66%); the basis in Kunming increased by 31 yuan (40.79%) [8]. 3.4.2. Industry Indicators - The national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the sales volume increased by 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the industrial inventory decreased by 32.21 million tons (-9.56%); the sugar import increased by 8 million tons (160%) [8]. 3.5. Meal Industry 3.5.1. Price Changes - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged; the futures price of M2509 decreased by 10 yuan (-0.33%); the basis increased by 10 yuan (8.33%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 22562 (-100%). - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan (-0.38%); the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 36 yuan (-1.32%); the basis increased by 26 yuan (22.61%); the warehouse receipt increased by 1200. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged; the futures price of the main contract decreased by 22 yuan (-0.53%); the basis increased by 22 yuan (11.40%) [10]. 3.5.2. Spread Changes - The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 3 yuan (7.69%); the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 19 yuan (-6.19%); the oil - meal ratio decreased slightly; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased [10]. 3.6. Cotton Industry 3.6.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 105 yuan (-0.76%); the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 65 yuan (-0.47%); the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.28 cents (-0.41%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan (-26.67%); the main contract's open interest decreased by 26389 (-7.02%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 115 (-1.27%). - Spot: The price of Xinjiang 3128B decreased by 130 yuan (-0.85%); the CC Index 3128B decreased by 145 yuan (-0.94%); the FC Index M 1% decreased by 35 yuan (-0.26%) [12]. 3.6.2. Industry Indicators - The industrial inventory decreased by 2.09 million tons (-2.3%); the import volume decreased by 1 million tons (-25%); the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year; the yarn inventory days increased by 1.13 days (4.1%); the grey cloth inventory days increased by 0.63 days (1.7%) [12]. 3.7. Egg Industry 3.7.1. Price Changes - The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 48 yuan (-1.34%); the price of the egg 10 contract decreased by 55 yuan (-1.64%); the egg spot price in the production area decreased by 0.03 yuan (-0.87%); the basis increased by 20 yuan (5.41%); the 9 - 10 spread increased by 7 yuan (3.23%). - The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged; the price of culled hens increased by 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio increased by 0.35 (15.56%); the breeding profit increased by 20.65 yuan (62.61%) [15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and paper pulp are all neutral [4][7][10] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the price of US cotton futures is expected to continue to fluctuate in the second half of the year. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by various factors, and the price will be under pressure in the medium and long term [3] - The global sugar market may still be in a production - increasing cycle, suppressing the long - term price of ICE raw sugar. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is supported by low domestic industrial inventory, but the upper space is limited, and the price will face downward pressure in the new season [7] - The supply of paper pulp in the second half of the year still has pressure, and the improvement of terminal demand is limited. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9] Market News and Important Data Cotton - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 105 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,213 yuan/ton, a change of - 130 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,325 yuan/ton, a change of - 145 yuan/ton [1] Sugar - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5793 yuan/ton, a change of - 11 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton [5] Paper Pulp - The closing price of the paper pulp 2509 contract was 5232 yuan/ton, a change of - 94 yuan/ton (- 1.76%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5270 yuan/ton, a change of - 70 yuan/ton [7] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a loose supply pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate in the second half of the year. Domestically, the inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but there are many factors restricting the continuous rise of Zhengzhou cotton, and the price will be under pressure in the fourth quarter [3] Sugar - The global sugar market may be in a production - increasing cycle, suppressing the long - term price of ICE raw sugar. The short - term price has support factors, and there may be a phased rebound. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is supported by low domestic inventory, but the upper space is limited, and the price will face downward pressure in the new season [7] Paper Pulp - The supply of paper pulp in the second half of the year still has pressure, and the demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [9] Strategies Cotton - Be neutral. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term [4] Sugar - Be neutral. The short - term price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - term trend should be considered bearish [7] Paper Pulp - Be neutral. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels after the end of macro - stimulation [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply - loose pattern. Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted in their upward space, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices. Sugar prices will mainly fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term. Pulp prices are affected by supply pressure and weak demand, and it's difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 27, the budding rate of U.S. cotton was 80%, 6 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 55%, 5 percentage points higher than last year and the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be supply - loose. U.S. cotton prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is depleting fast, but new cotton is expected to be abundant, and terminal demand is weak. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou cotton has an upward trend, but the supply is sufficient in the new year, and the upward space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons (up 11.3% year - on - year), sugar production to be 3.3 million tons (up 12.5% year - on - year), and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters (up 2.3% year - on - year) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices. However, the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and Indian policies may lead to short - term rebounds. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, but imports may suppress prices. New sugar listing will increase downward pressure [5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The prices of imported wood pulp showed different trends. Some softwood pulp prices declined, some hardwood pulp prices were in a stalemate, and some chemical mechanical pulp prices increased [6] Market Analysis - Pulp prices fluctuated. The anti - involution policy boosted the market, but supply pressure remains as imports increased in the first half of 2025 and domestic production capacity will increase. Demand is weak both at home and abroad, and terminal demand improvement is limited in the second half of the year [7] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term price increases are driven by macro - sentiment, and there is a chance to short at high prices after the macro - stimulus ends [8]