Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean/Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the high domestic soybean inventory and the lack of progress in U.S. soybean imports, along with the bean meal de - stocking season, offer some support. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: The current situation shows a balanced or slightly loose supply - demand, but the future is expected to be tight. Before the inventories in sales areas and production areas are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in demand in sales areas, the strategy is to buy on dips in the medium - term [5][7]. - **Sugar**: Considering the high sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the new season, the general trend is bearish, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - **Cotton**: Due to the resurgence of Sino - U.S. trade conflicts, weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, low downstream industry operating rates, and the expected domestic bumper harvest, the upward space for cotton prices is limited, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has a limited rebound expectation due to high supply. The futures market is in a weak bottom - building phase, and it is advisable to wait and see [16][17]. - **Pigs**: The fundamental situation is oversupply. The short - term spot price rebound is limited, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds for both near - term and far - term contracts [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to Trump's friendly remarks and strong U.S. domestic spot prices. On Monday, the domestic bean meal spot price was flat, with weak trading but good pick - up. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days last week, port soybean inventory started to decline, and oil mill bean meal inventory continued to decrease. MYSTEEL expects the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume to be 233.35 million tons this week, up from 216.6 million tons last week. As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week, compared with 17.6% last year and a five - year average of 27.7% [2]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the medium - term [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3.4%. From October 1 - 15, its production increased by 6.86% month - on - month. As of October 17, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 million tons, up 5.13% week - on - week and 11.59% year - on - year; the national key area soybean oil commercial inventory was 122.4 million tons, down 3.25% week - on - week. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated with no obvious driving force. The international palm oil supply - demand is currently balanced, with a tight expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the medium - term [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5428 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants all decreased by 20 yuan/ton. In the second half of September, Brazil's central - southern region had a 5.1% year - on - year increase in cane crushing volume, a 10.76% increase in sugar production, and a 3.44 - percentage - point increase in the cane - to - sugar ratio. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13465 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Chinese cotton was flat. As of October 17, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, up 0.2% week - on - week but down 7.6 percentage points year - on - year and 10.22 percentage points lower than the five - year average. In September 2025, China imported 10 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The upward space for cotton prices is limited, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price dropped yesterday. The main production area's average price fell to 2.85 yuan/jin. Supply is normal, market sales are slow, and downstream procurement is cautious. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly decline today, with a few areas remaining stable [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the futures market is in a weak bottom - building phase [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose yesterday. However, there is a risk that the product price may not follow the increase, and the demand may decrease. The farmers' enthusiasm for selling is low, and some slaughterhouses still have a supply shortage. Today, the pig price may slightly increase with limited gains [19]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds as the fundamental situation is oversupply [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the domestic supply has significant pressure, with soybean inventories at a record high. In the short - term, there is no improvement in US soybean imports, and the soybean meal destocking season provides some support. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [3][4]. - For oils, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the decreasing export volume due to the growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the upward movement of the oil price center. Currently, the supply - demand is balanced or slightly loose, but with a tight expectation in the medium - term, so the strategy is to buy on dips [6][7]. - For sugar, the sugar production data from Brazil's central - southern region in September is bearish but in line with expectations. In the new 2025/26 crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. With Brazil's high - level production, the overall view is bearish, and the strategy is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals including poor consumption during the peak season, low downstream operating rates, and high selling - hedging pressure from the expected high yield, the upward space for cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - For eggs, the spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The futures market is focused on whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium of each contract. Currently, the conditions for a significant price increase are not met, so it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. - For pigs, although the number of individual farmers' pigs has decreased, the supply from large - scale farms is large. The supply exceeds demand, and the secondary fattening is difficult to thrive. The strategy is to sell on rebounds [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 20 yuan, with the East China price at around 2910 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but pick - up was good. According to MYSTEEL, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days. MYSTEEL expects the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills to be 2.3335 million tons this week, compared with 2.166 million tons last week. As of October 17, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 23.27%, compared with 9.33% last year [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the low valuation of US soybeans and Sino - US trade relations, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, Brazil's expanding planting area, and potential short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the high domestic supply pressure and the soybean meal destocking season provide some support. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: According to ITS and AMSPEC, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month. In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.639743 million tons, slightly lower than 1.677346 million tons in August. Last Friday, domestic oils rose due to positive market sentiment [6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Internationally, the supply - demand of palm oil is currently balanced, with a tight expectation in the first quarter of next year. Domestically, the spot basis is stable at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventories in producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil, and limited production increase of palm oil, the oil price center is expected to rise. With the current balanced or slightly loose supply - demand and a tight expectation, the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 5412 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 328 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: In the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased year - on - year. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 150,000 tons year - on - year. From January - September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.17 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons year - on - year [10]. - **Strategy**: The September data from Brazil is bearish but in line with expectations. With the expected production increase in major northern hemisphere producers in the new season and Brazil's high - level production, the strategy is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13335 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price index (CCIndex)3128B rose by 15 yuan/ton. The basis of (CCIndex)3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1344 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.17 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.02 yuan/kg. The spinning mill operating rate was 65.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The Sino - US trade conflict is unfavorable to cotton prices. The consumption during the peak season is weak, the downstream operating rate is low, and there is a high yield expectation in the new season, resulting in high selling - hedging pressure [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak fundamentals and macro - level negative factors, the upward space for cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [14]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices continued to fall, with powder eggs performing weakly. The large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and those in Guantao fell to 2.42 yuan/jin. The laying hen inventory is high, and after the temperature drop, the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered [16]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The market has sufficient large and medium - sized eggs and a slight shortage of small - sized eggs. The downstream market's enthusiasm for restocking has increased, and the participation intention of all sectors has strengthened after the temperature drop [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The futures market is focused on whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium of each contract. Currently, the conditions for a significant price increase are not met, so it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with some regions rising or falling slightly. The average price in Henan rose to 11.46 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan remained at 10.84 yuan/kg, and that in Guangxi fell to 10.3 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for price adjustment was low, with some regions showing reluctance to sell at low prices and some regions reducing prices due to sales pressure [19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Although the number of individual farmers' pigs has decreased, the supply from large - scale farms is large. The supply exceeds demand, and the secondary fattening is difficult to thrive [20]. - **Strategy**: The near - term spot price rebound space is limited, and the futures market should focus on consuming the premium in the near - term contracts and suppressing the valuation in the far - term contracts. The strategy is to sell on rebounds [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The medium - term outlook for global soybean supply remains loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short term, due to the US's tariff threats, soybean prices will likely trade in a range [4]. - For oils, the medium - term outlook is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asia, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [6][7]. - For sugar, given the high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. - For cotton, considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. - For eggs, a bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. - For live pigs, in the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns over China - US trade relations. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, domestic port soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons, and soybean meal inventories continued to decline. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1674 million tons [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Imported soybean costs are supported by low US soybean valuations, China - US trade relations, and Brazil's planting season trading. However, they also face pressure from factors such as global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Strategy**: Given the large domestic supply pressure and high soybean inventories, the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, due to tariff threats, prices will likely trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the previous month. As of October 10, 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories increased by 1.31% week - on - week, and palm oil inventories decreased slightly. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated and declined [6]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term outlook is supported, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Brazilian data shows that in the first half of September, sugar production increased year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [9][11]. - **Strategy**: Given high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates are lower than in previous years, and cotton inventories are lower than the five - year average [14]. - **Strategy**: Considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: National egg prices are stable or falling, with supply - demand pressure remaining. Producers are eager to sell, but the circulation speed is slow [17]. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening provides some support, while southern farmers face greater pressure to sell [19]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20].