投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.8.8 | 2025.8.15 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 | 2025.8.8 | 2025.8.15 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2601 | 9460 | 9592 | 132 | 1.40 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 9428 | 9570 | 142 | 1.51 | | 菜油 | OI2601 | 9757 | 9890 | 133 | 1.36 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 9877 | 9985 | 108 | 1.10 | | 豆油 | Y2601 | 8534 | 8458 | -76 | -0.89 | 中国：现货价：豆油： 生意社 | 8608 | 8528 | -80 | -0.93 | 三大油脂基差变化情况 三大油脂周度报告 新 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

专题报告 2025-07-03 油脂：产量恢复消费支撑，震荡为主 报告要点： 展望未来三个月棕榈油产地情况，6-8 月产量通常持稳运行，9、10 月产量上升至高位，11 月 开始逐步下滑。此外今年以来产地国内消费较好，预计 6-9 月产地月均产量在 600-630 万吨， 月均国内消费在 240 万吨左右，月均可出口量为 360-390 万吨。 6-9 月其他油籽尚未收获且进入旧作出口尾声，棕榈油或弥补消费缺口，预计除中国、印度外 其余国家的棕榈油进口需求在历年平均水平的月均 300 万吨左右，全球的月均棕榈油进口需求 为 410 万吨，6-9 月东南亚棕榈油产地预计库存稳定或小幅去库，支撑油脂震荡运行。 年度级别看 25/26 年度是油脂供增需增的一年，较难有大的供需变化演绎，不过油脂通常不乏 月度级别的行情。节奏上，可能会在 6-8 月因产地棕榈油可能去库但 9、10 月累库预期较足而 震荡下行，10 月以后，印尼 B50 政策预期及美国生物柴油政策的实施叠加季节性棕榈油减产， 或有所上涨。 斯小伟 农产品分析师 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 028-86133280 sx ...

外盘方面，美豆同样受到关税战影响先抑后扬，产量方面则缺乏炒作题材，月底美国生物燃料政策的传闻一定程度扰动了市场，本 月CBOT大豆期货小幅收涨，但美豆仍在盘区运行；国际棕榈油方面，原油下挫对棕榈油打击不小，外加印尼B40计划无实质进展以及出口 表现疲软，马棕油持续偏弱运行，本月马棕油期货下跌近10%。 数据来源：wind、金石期货研究所 冯子悦 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 一、行情回顾 行情回顾 4月国内油脂表现动荡，由于中美贸易战超预期升级，对全球经济的担忧情绪重挫大宗商品市场，月初油脂大幅下挫。之后市场恐慌 情绪逐步缓和，且国内豆油库存降至同期低位，短期供应的收紧对整体油脂价格形成支撑，但随着进口大豆大量到港通关以及油厂开机 率逐步回升，月底油脂再次回落，本月豆油期货收跌近2%；棕榈油方面，低库存对价格形成一定支撑，连棕相较马棕更为抗跌，本月棕 榈油期货收跌近4%；菜籽油方面，国内菜籽油继续累库，但原料库存已经偏低，基本面近弱远强，本月菜籽油期货以窄幅震荡为主。 油脂月报（2025年4月） 供应拐点出现 关税扰动减弱 注册仓单量 | | 本月 | 上月 | 变 ...