Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global vegetable oil supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 fiscal year, but consumption growth is stronger, leading to a decrease in the inventory-to-consumption ratio, projected to drop to around 3% for the fourth consecutive year [2][3] - The demand for edible and industrial uses is the main driver, with biodiesel production accounting for over 25% of total vegetable oil consumption [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The U.S. is expected to introduce new policies that could significantly increase the mandatory blending volume of biodiesel, potentially raising the requirement from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to between 5.1 and 5.6 billion gallons, a 60% increase, which will substantially boost U.S. soybean oil demand [5][7] - Different countries use various types of vegetable oils for biodiesel production, leading to varied market responses. The U.S. primarily uses soybean oil, while Indonesia focuses on palm oil, and the EU utilizes multiple types [6][8] - Indonesia plans to maintain its B40 biodiesel blending policy due to insufficient subsidy levels, while potentially increasing export tariffs to support its biodiesel industry [1][8] Market Dynamics - Global palm oil production growth is slowing, while industrial demand continues to rise, leading to decreased export capacity. The new U.S. clean fuel policy is expected to further drive soybean demand, impacting the global supply landscape [9] - The international market is seeing price increases for soybean and canola due to U.S. clean fuel policies, while domestic prices in China are constrained by a large livestock sector and low-cost formulations [10] Price Trends and Impacts - India imports a significant amount of palm oil (8-9 million tons annually), and fluctuations in palm oil prices compared to soybean oil will influence its import decisions [11][12] - The expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory from 3.05 million tons in December 2025 to around 2.9 million tons in January 2026 is attributed to seasonal production cuts and drought conditions in Indonesia [14] Biodiesel Policy Implications - The global biodiesel policy in 2026 is likely to favor soybean oil, with Brazil expected to increase biodiesel production by 400,000 tons and the U.S. by 2 million tons, consuming all production increases [13] - The lack of a B50 policy in Indonesia may reduce demand but is expected to be offset by overall consumption increases, maintaining price support [17] Supply Chain Considerations - The supply chain for vegetable oils is highly concentrated, with 70% of soybean cultivation in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, and over 80% of palm oil produced in Malaysia and Indonesia [15] - The volatility of crude oil prices significantly impacts the energy attributes of vegetable oils, with around 25% of vegetable oil used for biodiesel production [16] Future Outlook - The current weather conditions in South America are favorable for soybean production, with Brazil's output expected to be between 176 million and 181 million tons, ensuring ample global supply [18] - The government's strategic release of stored soybeans has alleviated supply tightness, and with a large new soybean harvest expected, the likelihood of future shortages is low [19] - Despite high oilseed inventories, soybean oil prices may remain relatively strong in the short term due to overall supply dynamics [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: The supply outlook is neutral to bearish. Malaysia has entered the production - reduction season, but high inventory and a lower export reference price have increased palm oil exports. The full - scale auction of imported soybeans on January 13th, with expected delivery in March, has alleviated the short - term soybean shortage. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed will drop significantly before March 1st, and Australian rapeseed is also expected to enter commercial crushing [3]. - Demand: The demand outlook is neutral. Pre - festival stockpiling in China and India has not yet picked up, and the news of Indonesia delaying B50 is bearish for palm oil's far - month prices. The overall US biodiesel quota is expected to remain at the previous draft level or lower, with a more favorable impact on Canadian rapeseed products [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil inventory is under observation, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories are tight. Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a record high since 2019 in December at 3.05 million tons, but the overall situation is not as pessimistic as previously estimated. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is also de - stocking due to supply shortages [3]. - Macro and Policy: The macro and policy outlook is bullish. Geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn could trigger a rebound in oil prices. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled for early March, and Indonesia's B50 may be postponed [3]. - Investment View: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for palm oil, go long on soybean oil, and short rapeseed oil on rallies. Palm oil may reach its low point in the first quarter, soybean oil has a strong short - term fundamental outlook, and rapeseed oil is expected to be bearish before the US biodiesel policy is finalized [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Multiple factors contribute to an increase in international palm oil supply, and the short - term shortage of soybeans is alleviated. The reduction in Canadian rapeseed import costs may change the purchasing rhythm of oil mills [3]. - Demand: Pre - festival stockpiling in China and India has limited impact on oil digestion, and the B50 delay and US biodiesel policy have different impacts on various oil products [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil inventory varies between Malaysia and Indonesia, while domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in a de - stocking trend [3]. - Macro and Policy: Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are important factors affecting oil prices [3]. - Investment View: Different investment strategies are proposed for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil based on their respective fundamentals [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading involves going long on soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil, while arbitrage strategies include going long on Y and short on OI, P5 - 9 positive spreads, and OI3 - 5 positive spreads [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price spreads and differences, including P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 spreads [5][9][14]. 3.3 Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Forecasts of precipitation and temperature anomalies in Southeast Asia over different time periods are provided [19][21][23]. - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [31][35][36]. - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Similar data on Malaysia's palm oil are shown [37][42]. - India's Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Spread: Information on India's imports of different oils and the international bean - palm spread is provided [43][48]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Data on China's palm oil imports, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit are presented [49][51][53]. - Weather and Soybean Production: Forecasts of temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the progress of soybean planting and harvesting, are provided [60][63][69]. - US and Brazilian Export Situation: Data on the export volumes of the US and Brazil are presented [74][79]. - China's Soybean and Oil - Related Data: Information on China's soybean arrivals, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [90]. - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival: Data on the export of rapeseed from different origins, import profit, and domestic arrival volume are presented [91][93]. - China's Rapeseed - Related Data: Information on China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [100][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of oils and fats is neutral - to - bullish, with attention on weather. Demand is bullish, inventory shows a mixed situation (palm oil is under observation, soybean and rapeseed oils are tight), and the macro and policy environment is bullish. The investment view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for palm oil, go short on rapeseed oil at high levels, and expect soybean oil to strengthen [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral - to - bullish, and weather should be monitored. Southeast Asian precipitation has eased, South American dryness may affect soybean yields, domestic soybean oil mills are operating normally, there is a shortage of domestic rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil has entered the traditional production - reduction season [3]. - **Demand**: It is bullish. China is in the Spring Festival stocking period, followed by the Southeast Asian Ramadan stocking period. The US biofuel RVO has an uncertain impact, and domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - **Inventory**: Palm oil is under observation, while soybean and rapeseed oils are tight. Malaysian palm oil inventory is high, but the overall situation in the producing areas is not as pessimistic as expected. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is also de - stocking due to supply shortages [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is bullish. Geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn affects biofuel and oil prices. The US biofuel policy is to be released in the first quarter, and Indonesia will increase export taxes for the B50 plan [3]. - **Investment View**: Wait for a long - entry opportunity for palm oil, go short on rapeseed oil at high levels. The MPOB December data may be bearish for palm oil, but it will reverse later. Soybean oil is expected to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the USDA report and Argentine weather. The key for rapeseed oil is when the supply - side contradiction can be resolved [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on soybean oil in the single - side trade. For arbitrage, go long on Y and short on OI, conduct P5 - 9 positive spreads, and OI3 - 5 positive spreads. Before the report is released, lightly go long on the volatility of P and Y [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The content mainly presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as various spreads such as P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 [5][9][14][15]. 3.3 Fundamentals of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: Information on past and future precipitation and temperature in Southeast Asia is provided [19][23][29]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [32][36][37]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: Information on Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory is given [38][43]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: Data on Indian imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the Argentine soybean oil - Malaysian palm oil spread are shown [44][49]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Information on China's palm oil import volume, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit is provided [50][52][54]. - **Weather and Soybean Production**: Information on future temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina, is presented [61][64][70]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume are shown [75][79]. - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [89]. - **Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: Data on the FOB price of rapeseed in different origins, Canadian rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed arrival volume, and rapeseed oil import volume are shown [90][92]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [100][101].

油脂日报 | 2026-01-07 油脂供需稳定，盘面持续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8500.00元/吨，环比变化+12元，幅度+0.14%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7912.00 元/吨，环比变化+56.00元，幅度+0.71%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9130.00元/吨，环比变化+86.00元，幅度+0.95%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8500.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元，幅度+0.12%，现货基差P05+0.00，环比变化 -2.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8310.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.48%，现货基差Y05+398.00， 环比变化-16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9880.00元/吨，环比变化+100.00元，幅度+1.02%，现货基差 OI05+750.00，环比变化+14.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2026年1月1-5日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比 上月同期减少34.7%，出油率环比上月同期增长0.04%，产量环比上月同期减少34.48%。加拿大菜籽(3月船 ...

【导语】 12月国际油脂市场两大供需报告数据偏空，且国内在12月中旬拍储进口大豆缓解了原料供应 压力，整体给豆油施加回落压力，但近期内因菜籽油偏强整理带来底部支撑，预计春节前国内豆油价格 或窄幅向好整理。 12月中上旬国内豆油窄幅弱势整理 12月中上旬国内豆油市场先跌后涨，整体震荡回落，截至12月11日，国内豆油价格在8470元/吨，较月 初回落30元/吨，幅度0.35%。本阶段主要受到马来西亚棕榈油供需数据不佳、美农供需报告中性偏空、 阿根廷下调大豆及副产品出口税及国内进口大豆拍储缓解原料供应担忧的影响，给予豆油施加下滑压 力；周内菜籽油一度明显走高带动豆油反弹，但因油脂市场本阶段偏空气氛略浓，豆油整体呈现窄幅弱 势下滑。 国内豆油库存维持高位限制豆油涨幅 国内大豆进口量维持高位，压榨企业原料供应充足，整体维持高开工负荷，豆油产出宽松。虽然华南因 豆粕出库有压力，被迫出现个别企业压榨及精炼产线全部或分批停机，但豆油供应量整体依然较大。据 卓创资讯数据显示，上周（12月1日-12月7日）为57.28%，本周（12月8日-12月14日）预计为64.50%， 环比上升7.22个百分点，豆油产量增加4.39万吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the expectation that the supply of oils and fats in both the producing regions and the domestic market will be abundant, oils and fats, mainly palm oil and rapeseed oil, are expected to continue to weaken. It is recommended to short-term short, and exit when the price in the producing regions stabilizes or there is new positive driving force [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil producing regions have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter will increase. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but it is uncertain how much will enter commercial crushing. There are expectations of reconciliation between China and Canada, and the bumper harvest in producing regions such as Canada and Australia this year is marginally bearish [5]. - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. In the producing regions, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation time of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, but there is an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5]. - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously destocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of restocking due to a large number of vessel purchases by traders. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles to implementation next year. The US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Short - term shorting is recommended [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short palm oil and rapeseed oil. For arbitrage, go long Y01 and short P01. For options, buy call options for protection. Risk factors to focus on include unexpected production cuts and policy disturbances [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences of different contracts such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences of domestic soybean oil and palm oil. The data sources are Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature data of Southeast Asia in the past and future periods, including the precipitation in the past 14 days, the precipitation anomaly in the past 14 days, the precipitation forecast in the next 7 days, the temperature anomaly in the next 7 days, and the precipitation and temperature anomaly in the next 8 - 14 days [18][20][21]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It presents the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is GAPKI and the research institute of Guomao Futures [29][33][31]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It shows the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is MPOB and the research institute of Guomao Futures [34][40][39]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference**: It presents the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [41][45][44]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of palm oil in China from 2021 to 2025. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [47][51][58]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It presents the temperature and precipitation distribution in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the US soybean good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress from 2021 to 2025 [59][61][67]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It shows the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and export volume to China of US soybeans, as well as the monthly export volume and CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026. The data sources are USDA, ANEC, Steel Union, and the research institute of Guomao Futures [71][76][82]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It presents China's weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [86]. - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: It shows the precipitation forecast, precipitation distribution, and temperature distribution in the Canadian and European rapeseed - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the Canadian soil moisture [87][96]. - **Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: It presents the FOB price of rapeseed, weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, expected domestic arrival volume of rapeseed, and domestic arrival volume of rapeseed oil. The data sources are public information and the research institute of Guomao Futures [99][101][111]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and weekly inventory of domestic rapeseed oil from 2021 to 2025 [105][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the domestic supply has significant pressure, with soybean inventories at a record high. In the short - term, there is no improvement in US soybean imports, and the soybean meal destocking season provides some support. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [3][4]. - For oils, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the decreasing export volume due to the growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the upward movement of the oil price center. Currently, the supply - demand is balanced or slightly loose, but with a tight expectation in the medium - term, so the strategy is to buy on dips [6][7]. - For sugar, the sugar production data from Brazil's central - southern region in September is bearish but in line with expectations. In the new 2025/26 crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. With Brazil's high - level production, the overall view is bearish, and the strategy is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals including poor consumption during the peak season, low downstream operating rates, and high selling - hedging pressure from the expected high yield, the upward space for cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - For eggs, the spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The futures market is focused on whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium of each contract. Currently, the conditions for a significant price increase are not met, so it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. - For pigs, although the number of individual farmers' pigs has decreased, the supply from large - scale farms is large. The supply exceeds demand, and the secondary fattening is difficult to thrive. The strategy is to sell on rebounds [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 20 yuan, with the East China price at around 2910 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but pick - up was good. According to MYSTEEL, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days. MYSTEEL expects the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills to be 2.3335 million tons this week, compared with 2.166 million tons last week. As of October 17, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 23.27%, compared with 9.33% last year [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the low valuation of US soybeans and Sino - US trade relations, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, Brazil's expanding planting area, and potential short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the high domestic supply pressure and the soybean meal destocking season provide some support. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: According to ITS and AMSPEC, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month. In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.639743 million tons, slightly lower than 1.677346 million tons in August. Last Friday, domestic oils rose due to positive market sentiment [6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Internationally, the supply - demand of palm oil is currently balanced, with a tight expectation in the first quarter of next year. Domestically, the spot basis is stable at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventories in producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil, and limited production increase of palm oil, the oil price center is expected to rise. With the current balanced or slightly loose supply - demand and a tight expectation, the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 5412 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 328 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: In the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased year - on - year. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 150,000 tons year - on - year. From January - September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.17 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons year - on - year [10]. - **Strategy**: The September data from Brazil is bearish but in line with expectations. With the expected production increase in major northern hemisphere producers in the new season and Brazil's high - level production, the strategy is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13335 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price index (CCIndex)3128B rose by 15 yuan/ton. The basis of (CCIndex)3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1344 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.17 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.02 yuan/kg. The spinning mill operating rate was 65.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The Sino - US trade conflict is unfavorable to cotton prices. The consumption during the peak season is weak, the downstream operating rate is low, and there is a high yield expectation in the new season, resulting in high selling - hedging pressure [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak fundamentals and macro - level negative factors, the upward space for cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [14]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices continued to fall, with powder eggs performing weakly. The large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and those in Guantao fell to 2.42 yuan/jin. The laying hen inventory is high, and after the temperature drop, the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered [16]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The market has sufficient large and medium - sized eggs and a slight shortage of small - sized eggs. The downstream market's enthusiasm for restocking has increased, and the participation intention of all sectors has strengthened after the temperature drop [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The futures market is focused on whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium of each contract. Currently, the conditions for a significant price increase are not met, so it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with some regions rising or falling slightly. The average price in Henan rose to 11.46 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan remained at 10.84 yuan/kg, and that in Guangxi fell to 10.3 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for price adjustment was low, with some regions showing reluctance to sell at low prices and some regions reducing prices due to sales pressure [19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Although the number of individual farmers' pigs has decreased, the supply from large - scale farms is large. The supply exceeds demand, and the secondary fattening is difficult to thrive [20]. - **Strategy**: The near - term spot price rebound space is limited, and the futures market should focus on consuming the premium in the near - term contracts and suppressing the valuation in the far - term contracts. The strategy is to sell on rebounds [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of oils and fats remains stable, and prices continue to fluctuate. The impact of Sino - US trade frictions needs to be monitored in the later stage [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9330.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 34 yuan and a decline of - 0.36%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8240.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 28.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.34%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9959.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 63.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.63% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9270.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 50.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.54%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8440.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 10.00 yuan/ton and an increase of + 0.12%. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10260.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.58% [1] Spot Basis - The spot basis of palm oil in Guangdong was P01 + - 60.00, with a change of + 84.00 yuan. The spot basis of soybean oil in Tianjin was Y01 + 200.00, with a change of + 38.00 yuan. The spot basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was OI01 + 301.00, with a change of + 3.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information US Soybean Export Inspection - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 994008 tons, compared with 783495 tons in the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year (starting from September 1) was 4040284 tons, compared with 5463369 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Brazilian Soybean Production and Export Forecast - CONAB predicts that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.64 million tons, an increase of about 6 million tons year - on - year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.6% to 49.07 million hectares. The soybean export volume is expected to increase to 112.11 million tons, while the US soybean export volume is expected to decline [2] Brazilian Crop Planting Progress - In Brazil, the soybean planting progress in Paraná state is the fastest, with a sowing rate of 31%, followed by Mato Grosso state with a planting rate of 18.9%. Most regions are waiting for rainfall, which is expected to resume in the second half of October [2] Brazilian October Export Forecast - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean export volume in October to be 7.31 million tons, the soybean meal export volume to be 2.06 million tons, and the corn export volume to be 6.46 million tons, all higher than last week's expectations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The medium - term outlook for global soybean supply remains loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short term, due to the US's tariff threats, soybean prices will likely trade in a range [4]. - For oils, the medium - term outlook is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asia, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [6][7]. - For sugar, given the high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. - For cotton, considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. - For eggs, a bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. - For live pigs, in the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns over China - US trade relations. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, domestic port soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons, and soybean meal inventories continued to decline. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1674 million tons [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Imported soybean costs are supported by low US soybean valuations, China - US trade relations, and Brazil's planting season trading. However, they also face pressure from factors such as global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Strategy**: Given the large domestic supply pressure and high soybean inventories, the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, due to tariff threats, prices will likely trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the previous month. As of October 10, 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories increased by 1.31% week - on - week, and palm oil inventories decreased slightly. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated and declined [6]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term outlook is supported, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Brazilian data shows that in the first half of September, sugar production increased year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [9][11]. - **Strategy**: Given high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates are lower than in previous years, and cotton inventories are lower than the five - year average [14]. - **Strategy**: Considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: National egg prices are stable or falling, with supply - demand pressure remaining. Producers are eager to sell, but the circulation speed is slow [17]. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening provides some support, while southern farmers face greater pressure to sell [19]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/Meal**: In the medium - term, with high domestic soybean inventory and expected global supply surplus, the general strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short - term, due to tariff issues, it will mainly trade in a range [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Medium - term, there is support for oils and fats. Before inventory accumulates and demand shows negative feedback, a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term, due to trade war concerns, it's advisable to wait and see [5][6]. - **Sugar**: With expected increases in production in major northern hemisphere countries and high production in Brazil's central - south region, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - **Cotton**: Given weak fundamentals and macro - negative impacts, short - term cotton prices are likely to decline [12][13]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, a bearish view on near - term contracts is appropriate. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound during the stocking period. In the long - term, sell on rallies [15][16]. - **Pigs**: In the fourth quarter, there is large supply pressure. For near - term contracts, reduce short positions. After spot prices stabilize, consider a 13 - positive spread strategy. For far - term contracts, maintain a reverse spread strategy [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to Sino - US trade concerns. Domestic soybean meal prices rose over the weekend. MYSTEEL predicts this week's domestic soybean crushing volume to be 216.74 million tons. Import soybean costs face both support and pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Medium - term, sell on rallies; short - term, trade in a range [2][3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased compared to the same period last month. The 2026 average price of crude palm oil is expected to be between 3900 - 4100 Malaysian ringgit per ton. Last Friday, domestic oils and fats prices fell [5]. - **Strategy**: Medium - term, buy on dips; short - term, wait and see [5][6]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Last Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase in the first half of September. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Last Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose first and then fell. Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese imports, and China responded with counter - measures [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, expect price decline [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable over the weekend. Supply is large, and consumption is weak. Egg prices are expected to be weak in early October and may rebound slightly later [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, bearish on near - term contracts; medium - term, expect a rebound; long - term, sell on rallies [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices continued to fall over the weekend, with some areas stabilizing. Supply is abundant, and some farmers are selling pigs actively [18]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts; consider a 13 - positive spread after spot prices stabilize; maintain a reverse spread for far - term contracts [19].