农产品早报 2025-09-29 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周五美豆震荡，阿根廷降价销售告一段落，市场重新交易新作产量。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东抱 2900 元/吨持平。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内豆粕成交一般，提货较好，不过周尾现货成交提货均回落较多， 上周国内压榨大豆 227 万吨，本周预计压榨 176 万吨。 杨泽元 阿根廷短期出口了大量豆粕、大豆，目前因出口目标达到已取消出口税，不过对国际豆粕的冲击仍较大。 巴西方面升贴水暂稳。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估值、中美贸易关系及巴西种植季节交易的 支撑，但上方也面临全球蛋白原料供应过剩、巴西或持续扩大种植面积以及中美关系若缓和引发短期供 应 ...

油脂周报 | 2025-09-28 豆菜供需各异，油脂行情分化 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，本周收盘棕榈油2601合约9236元/吨，环比下跌80元，跌幅0.86%；本周收盘豆油2601合约8162元/ 吨，环比下跌166元，跌幅1.99%；本周收盘菜油2601合约10162元/吨，环比上涨94元，涨幅0.93%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格9190元/吨，环比下跌60元，跌幅0.65%，现货基差P01-46，环比上涨20元；天津地区 一级豆油现货价格8380元/吨，环比下跌130元/吨，跌幅1.53%，现货基差Y01+218，环比上涨36元；江苏地区 四级菜油现货价格10380元/吨，环比上涨90元，涨幅0.87%，现货基差OI01+218，环比下跌4元。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，9月24日(周三)，马来西亚棕榈油协会(MPOA)公布的数据显示，马来西亚9月1-20日毛棕油产量较上 月同期下降4.26%。 其中，马来半岛产量下滑8.23%，东马来西亚产量增加2.64%，沙巴产量增加0.73%，沙捞 越产量增加7.63%。周内（9.19-9.25）国内新增 4 条买船，船期均为 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a long - term bullish view on the oil and fat industry, with short - term retracement and consolidation [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the report believes that the oil and fat market will rise in the medium and long term, but currently, there is no fundamental driver. It is expected to wait for the bullish drive from the origin supply side to bring a new round of upward trend. The key is to select the right entry point [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bullish, and soybean oil is neutral. The Malaysian report is neutral, and the USDA report on US soybeans is slightly bearish with a downward adjustment in the good - to - excellent rate. Indonesia's low inventory in June and firm export prices support international palm prices, and the anti - dumping deposit on Canadian rapeseed remains, making it difficult for Australian rapeseed imports to supplement rapeseed oil supply [5]. - **Demand**: It is neutral to bearish. The demand for biodiesel in Indonesia and the US is lower than previously expected, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil and fat trading volumes compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral to bearish. The total domestic oil and fat inventory continued to increase last week, creating a bearish expectation gap compared to the previous "peak inventory and destocking" expectation, mainly affecting the weakening of the basis and the monthly spread [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is neutral to bearish. Trump's visit to China may bring expectations of trade talks, Indonesia is expected to implement B45 next year, and the US biodiesel RVO remains uncertain [5]. - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term retracement and consolidation. It maintains the view of a medium - to - long - term rise in oil and fat, waiting for bullish drivers from the origin supply side [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and go long on dips. For arbitrage, go long on oil and short on meal in the far - month contracts. For options, buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - This part presents multiple charts related to the closing prices of oil and fat main contracts, price spreads, and spot price differences, but no specific text analysis is provided [7][9][14][15]. PART THREE: Fundamentals of Oil and Fat Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asia**: It shows data on Southeast Asian weather, including precipitation and temperature forecasts, as well as Indonesia's and Malaysia's monthly supply and demand data for palm oil, such as production, export volume, and inventory [19][21][31][37]. - **India**: It presents India's monthly imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the international soybean - palm oil price spread [44]. - **China**: It includes data on China's palm oil import profit, supply and demand, such as import volume, trading volume, and inventory, as well as data on soybean and rapeseed, including US soybean production conditions, US and Brazilian soybean exports, and Canada and EU rapeseed production and exports, and China's domestic processing and inventory of related oils [50][61][73][88][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week, with palm oil and soybean oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased, and the fundamentals of different oils varied. The MPOB report on palm oil was neutral to bearish, causing the price center to shift downward. [4][34][36] - In the short - term, the center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600. In the medium - to - long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [37][38] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From September 5 to September 12, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) decreased by 230 to 9296, a week - on - week decline of 2.41%, and the spot price decreased by 196 to 9354, a week - on - week decline of 2.05%. [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) increased by 39 to 9857, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%, and the spot price increased by 98 to 10020, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%. [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) decreased by 128 to 8322, a week - on - week decline of 1.51%, and the spot price decreased by 120 to 8408, a week - on - week decline of 1.41%. [4] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 11, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 72 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 127 yuan/ton (an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 24 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. [10] - As of September 12, 2025, the YP spread was - 974 yuan/ton (an increase of 102 yuan/ton from the previous week). [10] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 61.93 tons (an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week), and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills was 125.13 tons (an increase of 1.25 tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 196.76 tons (an increase of 1.47 tons from the previous week). [13] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of August increased by 4.18% from the previous month to 220 tons. [18] - In June 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons. [18] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.10 tons (an increase of 60.5 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 731.70 tons (an increase of 34.85 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 60% (a decrease of 1% from the previous week). [21] - As of September 11, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 600.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 12.6 yuan/ton from the previous week). [21] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 10 tons (unchanged from the previous week). [27] - As of September 11, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2284.80 yuan/ton (an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton from the previous week). [27] Demand Side - On September 11, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 3500 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 7000 tons. The POGO spread was 416.74 dollars/ton (a decrease of 11.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). [32] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 805 tons. [32] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation period of Canadian rapeseed to March 9, 2026. [34] - Foreign: USDA's monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. [34] - Import and Crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 1% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained at 10 tons, unchanged from the previous week. [34] - Inventory: As of September 5, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 9.7 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.93 tons, and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills increased to 125.13 tons. [34] - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.05%, the spot price of soybean oil decreased by 1.41%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.99%. [34] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600 next week. [37] - Medium - to - long - term: The weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [38] - Next week's focus and risk warnings include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather. [39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of the MPOB report next week and the further clarification of the US biodiesel policy. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce until March 9, 2026 also affects the market. The production, export, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia in August are expected to change, with expected export growth and inventory accumulation. For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [23][24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil (P2601), rapeseed oil (OI2601), and soybean oil (Y2601) increased by 2.25%, 0.30%, and 1.10% respectively. The spot prices of palm oil decreased by 1.38%, rapeseed oil increased by 0.22%, and soybean oil increased by 1.19% [2]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 4, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were 72 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 119 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 10 yuan/ton (down 108 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of September 5, 2025, the YP spread was - 1076 yuan/ton (down 118 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 29, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.4 tons (down 0.1 tons from the previous week), the palm oil factory commercial inventory was 61.01 tons (up 2.8 tons from the previous week), the national soybean oil factory inventory was 123.88 tons (up 5.28 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 195.29 tons (up 7.98 tons from the previous week) [8]. Supply - side of Palm Oil - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% to 211 tons compared to the previous month. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [13]. Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 905.60 tons (up 15.8 tons from the previous week), the national major oil factory soybean inventory was 696.85 tons (up 14.32 tons from the previous week), and the oil factory operating rate was 61% (down 1% from the previous week). As of September 4, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 587.80 yuan/ton (down 1.8 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil factories was 10 tons (down 5 tons from the previous week). As of September 5, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2285.60 yuan/ton (up 289.4 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. Demand - side - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil factories was 233 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 2000 tons. The POGO spread was 428.24 dollars/ton (down 22.75 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [22]. Strategy Recommendation - For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [25][26]. Next Week's Concerns - The concerns include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil, and weather [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of palm oil has improved overall, with production decreasing and exports increasing in August in Malaysia. Indonesia's palm oil production and inventory data also show certain trends. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the overall situation of the three major oils is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and policies [27][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined. Palm oil futures fell by 2.88%, rapeseed oil by 1.02%, and soybean oil by 1.18%. The spot prices also decreased, with palm oil down 0.40%, rapeseed oil down 0.58%, and soybean oil down 0.94% [2] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of August 28, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 76 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), 117 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton), and 118 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 29, the YP spread was - 958 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 22, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.5 tons (up 0.05 tons from the previous week), the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 58.21 tons (down 3.52 tons), the national soybean oil mill inventory was 118.60 tons (up 4.33 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 187.31 tons (up 0.86 tons) [8] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [11] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.80 tons (down 2.8 tons from the previous week), the major oil mill soybean inventory was 682.53 tons (up 2.13 tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (unchanged from the previous week). As of August 29, the soybean crushing profit was - 586.00 yuan/ton (down 19.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [17] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 15 tons (unchanged from the previous week), and the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2575.00 yuan/ton (up 291.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20] Demand Side - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 2966 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 10000 tons. The POGO spread was 450.99 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [26] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. Foreign: USDA reported that the US soybean yield increased, the sown area decreased, and the production decreased; MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports all changed in July. Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate was unchanged, and the soybean and rapeseed inventories were stable. Inventory: The rapeseed oil inventory increased, the palm oil inventory decreased, and the soybean oil inventory increased. Spot: The spot prices of the three major oils all decreased this week [27] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Palm oil fluctuated weakly at a high level this week, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 9200 - 9650. Medium - and long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and the expected fluctuation range is 9200 - 10000. The focus and risk warnings next week are the US biodiesel policy, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data, and weather [28][29][30]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed a differentiated trend this week. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices increased, while soybean oil prices decreased. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased slightly. The market is waiting for the US policy on biodiesel exemptions for small refiners, which may affect oil prices [4][10][29] - In the short term, palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9850 next week. In the long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with the center of gravity likely to rise, and the expected fluctuation range is 9300 - 10100 [32][33] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 9460 to 9592, with a weekly increase of 1.40%; the spot price rose from 9428 to 9570, with a weekly increase of 1.51% [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) rose from 9757 to 9890, with a weekly increase of 1.36%; the spot price rose from 9877 to 9985, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) fell from 8534 to 8458, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8608 to 8528, with a weekly decrease of 0.93% [4] Basis Changes of the Three Major Oils - As of August 21, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 74 yuan/ton (a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 116 yuan/ton (a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 50 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7] - As of August 22, 2025, the YP spread was - 1134 yuan/ton (a decrease of 208 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 10.45 tons (a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 61.73 tons (an increase of 1.75 tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.27 tons (an increase of 0.5 tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 186.45 tons (an increase of 1.7 tons from the previous week) [10] Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons [16] - In May 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 4.2% to 291.6 tons [16] Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the soybean inventory at national ports was 892.60 tons (a decrease of 1.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 680.40 tons (a decrease of 30.16 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 2% from the previous week) [19] - As of August 22, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 566.30 yuan/ton (a decrease of 26.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19] Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [22] - As of August 22, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2866.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22] Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 400 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 12800 tons. The POGO spread was 442.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 16.75 dollars/ton from the previous week) [28] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [28] Fundamental Analysis of the Three Major Oils - Policy: The market is waiting for the US to announce the exemption policy for small refiners related to biodiesel [29] - Foreign factors: The USDA monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons, the crude palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% from the previous month to 1.81 million tons, and the palm oil export volume in July increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons [29] - Import and crushing: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 2% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [29] - Inventory: As of August 15, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 10.45 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.73 tons, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 114.27 tons [29] - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed a differentiated trend this week. The spot price of palm oil increased by 1.51%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 1.10%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.93% [29] Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil futures rose 1.40% this week. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 20 days of August increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and exports increased by 13 - 18%, with the export growth slowing down. Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% to 253 tons. The B50 plan is expected to be implemented, which will support future consumption in the producing areas. India has low inventory, and the pre - Diwali stocking period is expected to have significant import demand for oils, which still supports international palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the procurement of palm oil for September shipments is limited, and the demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement [31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025/2026 annual level is a year of increasing supply and demand for oils and fats, making it difficult to have significant supply - demand changes. However, there are usually monthly - level market trends. It may fluctuate downward from June to August due to possible inventory reduction of palm oil in the producing areas but sufficient inventory accumulation expectations in September and October. After October, the implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the US biodiesel policy, combined with seasonal palm oil production cuts, may lead to an increase [1][23]. Summary by Related Chapters I. Southeast Asian Palm Oil Production Recovery Suppresses Oil Prices - Since March 2025, the trend of oils and fats has diverged. Palm oil has generally declined due to increased production, while rapeseed oil has fluctuated at a high level due to tight Canadian rapeseed supply. Recently, the overall valuation has been lifted due to the EPA's RVO draft. From March to April, the combined production of CPO + CPKO in Indonesia and CPO in Malaysia was 619.5 and 659.6 million tons respectively, an increase of 90 million tons year - on - year. Although export performance was average during the same period, domestic consumption in the producing areas remained at a high level, so the increase in inventory was limited, and the inventory rose to a relatively low level in recent years by the end of April [3]. - Looking ahead to the next three months in palm oil producing areas, the seasonal production from June to August usually runs steadily, reaches a high in September and October, and gradually declines from November. Since the beginning of this year, domestic consumption in the producing areas has been good, mainly due to the increase in biodiesel usage and a slight increase in edible consumption, which may also maintain a good level from June to August and may increase seasonally after September. It is estimated that the average monthly production from June to September in the producing areas will be 600 - 630 million tons, the average monthly domestic consumption will be about 240 million tons, and the average monthly export volume will be 360 - 390 million tons [1][3]. II. Palm Oil in Malaysia + Indonesia May See a Slight Inventory Reduction from June to September and Enter the Inventory Accumulation Stage after September - Palm oil exports usually increase seasonally from June to October. From January to May 2025, the combined imports of palm oil and palm kernel oil by China and India decreased by about 134 million tons year - on - year, resulting in low domestic oil inventories in India, which may require more palm oil imports to replenish inventory later. Imports from other countries except China and India increased by about 50 million tons. The apparent demand for vegetable oils was slightly weak. India's imported vegetable oil consumption has recently remained at about 120 million tons per month, showing a slight decline. In China, from January to May, among vegetable oil consumption, soybean oil consumption decreased by about 30 million tons year - on - year, rapeseed oil consumption remained flat, and the apparent consumption of palm oil decreased significantly by about 50 million tons. It is estimated that China and India's palm oil imports from June to September will be slightly higher than last year, with an average monthly import of about 110 million tons [11][13]. - In terms of other oils, the exports of soybean oil from Argentina and Brazil are expected to be the same as last year. Due to the increase in domestic consumption in Brazil affected by B15, but with an additional 300 million tons of soybean crushing this year, the export volume is expected to remain at last year's level. Argentina's crushing and exportable volume are usually relatively stable. Ukraine's sunflower oil exports are in a seasonal decline stage. Therefore, before the oilseed harvest season, global palm oil may partially fill the reduction in other oil exports [13]. - Assuming that the global palm oil import demand from other countries except China and India from June to September is about 300 million tons per month on average over the years, the average monthly global palm oil import demand from June to September is expected to be 410 million tons, and the palm oil inventory in the producing areas is expected to remain stable or see a slight reduction. However, the inventory reduction scenario is limited to a decline in palm oil production in the producing areas. If downstream buying interest remains weak under new situations such as macro - fluctuations and trade wars, the inventory reduction in the producing areas will also be tested. After September, production in the producing areas will further increase, and with the harvest of other oilseeds, the palm oil in the producing areas will enter the inventory accumulation process [13][14]. III. It is Difficult to Have Significant Supply - Demand Changes in Oils and Fats at the Annual Level - Currently, the new - crop Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed and sunflower seeds in Russia and Ukraine, and Australian rapeseed are in the growing stage. The weather for Canadian rapeseed has improved recently after being dry in the early stage. The weather in the sunflower seed - producing areas in Russia and Ukraine is normal. The EU's rapeseed and sunflower seeds are expected to have a restorative increase in production according to the EU report on June 25. Global soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and the soybean oil crushing production is expected to increase by 200 million tons year - on - year. Overall, other oils except palm oil are expected to have a combined production increase of 400 - 450 million tons in the 2025/2026 global annual level, with sufficient global oil supply [22]. - On the demand side, the US biodiesel blending draft is expected to bring an incremental industrial demand of about 150 - 200 million tons of oils and fats globally. Brazil's B15 policy may provide an incremental demand of about 50 million tons. Global edible demand is weak under the negative impact of the trade war on the macro - economy, and the annual increase is expected to be less than 250 million tons under normal circumstances. For palm oil, due to good rainfall in 2024, there may be a certain increase in production at the annual level, but the increase is limited due to the relatively old tree age [22].