1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the domestic supply has significant pressure, with soybean inventories at a record high. In the short - term, there is no improvement in US soybean imports, and the soybean meal destocking season provides some support. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [3][4]. - For oils, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the decreasing export volume due to the growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the upward movement of the oil price center. Currently, the supply - demand is balanced or slightly loose, but with a tight expectation in the medium - term, so the strategy is to buy on dips [6][7]. - For sugar, the sugar production data from Brazil's central - southern region in September is bearish but in line with expectations. In the new 2025/26 crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. With Brazil's high - level production, the overall view is bearish, and the strategy is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals including poor consumption during the peak season, low downstream operating rates, and high selling - hedging pressure from the expected high yield, the upward space for cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - For eggs, the spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The futures market is focused on whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium of each contract. Currently, the conditions for a significant price increase are not met, so it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. - For pigs, although the number of individual farmers' pigs has decreased, the supply from large - scale farms is large. The supply exceeds demand, and the secondary fattening is difficult to thrive. The strategy is to sell on rebounds [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 20 yuan, with the East China price at around 2910 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but pick - up was good. According to MYSTEEL, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days. MYSTEEL expects the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills to be 2.3335 million tons this week, compared with 2.166 million tons last week. As of October 17, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 23.27%, compared with 9.33% last year [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the low valuation of US soybeans and Sino - US trade relations, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, Brazil's expanding planting area, and potential short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the high domestic supply pressure and the soybean meal destocking season provide some support. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: According to ITS and AMSPEC, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month. In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.639743 million tons, slightly lower than 1.677346 million tons in August. Last Friday, domestic oils rose due to positive market sentiment [6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Internationally, the supply - demand of palm oil is currently balanced, with a tight expectation in the first quarter of next year. Domestically, the spot basis is stable at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventories in producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil, and limited production increase of palm oil, the oil price center is expected to rise. With the current balanced or slightly loose supply - demand and a tight expectation, the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 5412 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 328 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: In the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased year - on - year. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 150,000 tons year - on - year. From January - September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.17 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons year - on - year [10]. - **Strategy**: The September data from Brazil is bearish but in line with expectations. With the expected production increase in major northern hemisphere producers in the new season and Brazil's high - level production, the strategy is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13335 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price index (CCIndex)3128B rose by 15 yuan/ton. The basis of (CCIndex)3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1344 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.17 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.02 yuan/kg. The spinning mill operating rate was 65.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The Sino - US trade conflict is unfavorable to cotton prices. The consumption during the peak season is weak, the downstream operating rate is low, and there is a high yield expectation in the new season, resulting in high selling - hedging pressure [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak fundamentals and macro - level negative factors, the upward space for cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [14]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices continued to fall, with powder eggs performing weakly. The large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and those in Guantao fell to 2.42 yuan/jin. The laying hen inventory is high, and after the temperature drop, the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered [16]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The market has sufficient large and medium - sized eggs and a slight shortage of small - sized eggs. The downstream market's enthusiasm for restocking has increased, and the participation intention of all sectors has strengthened after the temperature drop [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The futures market is focused on whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium of each contract. Currently, the conditions for a significant price increase are not met, so it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with some regions rising or falling slightly. The average price in Henan rose to 11.46 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan remained at 10.84 yuan/kg, and that in Guangxi fell to 10.3 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for price adjustment was low, with some regions showing reluctance to sell at low prices and some regions reducing prices due to sales pressure [19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Although the number of individual farmers' pigs has decreased, the supply from large - scale farms is large. The supply exceeds demand, and the secondary fattening is difficult to thrive [20]. - **Strategy**: The near - term spot price rebound space is limited, and the futures market should focus on consuming the premium in the near - term contracts and suppressing the valuation in the far - term contracts. The strategy is to sell on rebounds [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The medium - term outlook for global soybean supply remains loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short term, due to the US's tariff threats, soybean prices will likely trade in a range [4]. - For oils, the medium - term outlook is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asia, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [6][7]. - For sugar, given the high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. - For cotton, considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. - For eggs, a bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. - For live pigs, in the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns over China - US trade relations. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, domestic port soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons, and soybean meal inventories continued to decline. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1674 million tons [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Imported soybean costs are supported by low US soybean valuations, China - US trade relations, and Brazil's planting season trading. However, they also face pressure from factors such as global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Strategy**: Given the large domestic supply pressure and high soybean inventories, the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, due to tariff threats, prices will likely trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the previous month. As of October 10, 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories increased by 1.31% week - on - week, and palm oil inventories decreased slightly. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated and declined [6]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term outlook is supported, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Brazilian data shows that in the first half of September, sugar production increased year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [9][11]. - **Strategy**: Given high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates are lower than in previous years, and cotton inventories are lower than the five - year average [14]. - **Strategy**: Considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: National egg prices are stable or falling, with supply - demand pressure remaining. Producers are eager to sell, but the circulation speed is slow [17]. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening provides some support, while southern farmers face greater pressure to sell [19]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly due to high domestic supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: The center of the oils and fats market is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy, limited production growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and reduced export volume expectations from Indonesia. Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September are bearish. With expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries in the new season, a bearish outlook is maintained, and short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - **Cotton**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak. The estimated cost support is around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg market has a supply - demand imbalance. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. It is advisable to wait for the bottom - building process and adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy [15][16]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, CBOT soybeans rose about 2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic soybean meal spot prices slightly decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas and increased in others. As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to be loose, and in the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 plan for biodiesel in 2026. Reuters estimates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September may have decreased by 2.5% compared to August. During the National Day holiday, Malaysian palm oil rose about 4.2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by multiple factors, the oils and fats market is expected to be strong in the medium - term. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. During the National Day holiday, the price of raw sugar changed little. In the first half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The data are bearish, and with expected production increases in the new season, short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures declined. During the National Day holiday, US cotton prices fell. Domestic processing enterprises' cotton purchase is rational, and the purchase price of seed cotton is lower than last year [12]. - **Strategy**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic egg prices generally declined. Supply is large, demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation in some areas [15]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. A wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic pig prices generally declined. Supply exceeds demand, and there is a possibility of further price drops [17]. - **Strategy**: The current spot price may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [18].