美元占比降至42.8%，欧元升至32.5%，人民币表现如何？ 最近刷财经新闻的朋友，大概率见过"美元霸权松动"的说法，甚至有消息传"美元全球储备占比跌到42.8%，欧元冲到32.5%"。这消息一出来，不少人既好奇 又疑惑：美元真的跌这么快？欧元能接棒吗？咱们天天用的人民币，在这场全球货币"排位赛"里表现咋样？ 其实这些网传数据和官方口径有出入——国际货币基金组织（IMF）2025年二季度最新的COFER数据显示，美元储备占比是56.3%，虽然创了30年新低，但 远没到42.8%；欧元占比稳在20.2%左右，也没突破32.5%。不过"美元走弱、货币格局生变"是真的，今天就用IMF、中国央行的权威数据说话，聊聊美元、 欧元的真实处境，更关键的是看看人民币的底气和进展。 一、先辨真假：美元欧元的真实"排位分" 网传的"美元42.8%、欧元32.5%"可能混淆了"储备货币"和"交易货币"的口径，咱们得用IMF的官方数据算笔明白账。 先说美元：2025年二季度，它在全球外汇储备中的占比是56.3%，这是1994年以来的最低值，比2000年的72%跌了15.7个百分点。跌的原因很实在：一是美 联储2024年连续降息，把基 ...

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market is entering a data-intensive period, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data being a key focus that will influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] - If inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September, putting additional pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - In Europe, speeches from European Central Bank officials and economic data releases from the Eurozone will be important indicators for the euro's performance [1] Group 2 - The ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar provides emerging market currencies with a rare opportunity for recovery, particularly for those with strong fundamentals [2] - The combination of the dollar's historical weakness, easing geopolitical risks, and a return of market risk appetite is reshaping the global currency landscape [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, developments in geopolitical situations, and the divergence in economic fundamentals across countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the Eurozone is facing a historic strategic window due to structural pressures on the US dollar system, which includes increased political polarization in the US, frequent adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, and a global trust crisis stemming from geopolitical strategic contraction [3]. Group 1: Eurozone's Strategic Position - Lagarde emphasized the need for the Eurozone to leverage its institutional advantages, such as the ECB's transparent policy transmission mechanism, a robust financial regulatory framework developed through the subprime crisis, and the stability of the EU legal system, to reshape the Euro's strategic position in the international monetary system [3]. - The current capital flow dynamics are influenced by the ambiguity of the Federal Reserve's policy path and the political uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US elections, particularly the potential return of Trump, which is prompting global investors to reassess the long-term risk premium of dollar assets [3]. Group 2: Structural Reforms in the Eurozone - Two significant structural reforms are being advanced in the Eurozone: the deepening of the Capital Markets Union to facilitate cross-border investment and financing, and the innovation of common debt instruments aimed at creating a regional risk-hedging mechanism [3]. - These initiatives are expected to fundamentally enhance the Euro's status as a safe-haven currency, providing a scarce strategic resource of certainty in increasingly volatile global markets [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Euro to USD - The technical analysis indicates that the Euro to USD exchange rate is exhibiting clear range characteristics, with resistance levels concentrated around 1.1330-1.1335, and support levels at 1.1270-1.1275 and 1.1245-1.1250 [4]. - A trading strategy could involve positioning for a short near 1.1335, with a stop-loss set 40 points above the breakout, targeting the lower end of the range [4].