12月31日，非洲中南部国家赞比亚央行向彭博社表示，已确认该国自10月份开始，接受用人民币缴纳矿 业税费和特许权使用费，这标志人民币国际化取得重大突破。 赞比亚的选择更像一个信号，一个属于"全球南方"的信号。它告诉世界，发展中国家正在主动寻求货币 选择上的多元化，以摆脱对单一货币的过度依赖。这种"去风险化"的集体行动，可能比事件本身更具历 史意味。 这事儿听着就带劲！赞比亚可不是随便哪个国家，它的铜矿资源在全球都排得上号。用人民币收矿产 税，好比抓住了经济的命门。这意味着人民币不再只是购物清单上的结算工具，它已经敲开了主权国家 财政部的大门。 想想看，以往我们听说人民币国际化，多是在贸易环节。这回直接迈进税务领域，性质完全不同。税费 是一个国家财政主权的核心体现，赞比亚这个决定，背后是实打实的信任投票。这种信任，比签多少贸 易协议都来得厚重。 数据不会说谎。国际清算银行的最新调查显示，人民币在全球外汇交易中的份额已经快速攀升。越来越 多的央行开始像攒家底一样，将人民币纳入外汇储备篮子。这不是跟风，而是基于现实利益的精明计 算。 但也别高兴得太早。我们必须泼点冷水清醒一下：一个赞比亚，撼动不了现有的全球货币格局 ...

Core Insights - The narrative of "dollar hegemony weakening" is prevalent, with claims that the dollar's global reserve share has dropped to 42.8% and the euro has risen to 32.5%, but these figures are misleading and do not align with official data from the IMF [1][3] Group 1: Dollar and Euro Positioning - The dollar's reserve share is reported at 56.3% as of Q2 2025, marking a 30-year low but still significantly higher than the euro and yuan combined [3][4] - The dollar's decline is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and concerns over U.S. debt levels, leading to a reduction in dollar-denominated assets held by other central banks [3][4] - The euro remains stable at around 20.2% of global reserves, supported by the European Central Bank's credibility and the economic size of the Eurozone, but faces challenges such as slow economic growth and policy unification [3][4] Group 2: Renminbi's Progress - The renminbi's global reserve share has increased to 2.12% (approximately $246.3 billion) as of Q1 2025, having doubled over recent years, with expectations of reaching 6% by 2030 according to central bank surveys [4][6] - Cross-border usage of the renminbi is growing, with a 21.1% year-on-year increase in cross-border transactions, and 26.5% of trade settlements now conducted in renminbi [4][5] - The renminbi's international payment system (CIPS) processed 175.49 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 42.6% increase, indicating a broader acceptance of renminbi in global trade [5][6] Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges for Renminbi - The renminbi's potential for growth is supported by China's solid economic fundamentals, with a projected GDP growth of 5% in 2024, and ongoing internationalization efforts by the People's Bank of China [6][7] - However, significant challenges remain, including a large gap in reserve share compared to the euro and dollar, capital flow restrictions, and insufficient market depth for renminbi-denominated assets [8][9][10] - The global currency landscape is evolving gradually, with the dollar transitioning from an absolute leader to a relative one, while the renminbi is positioned as a promising contender for future growth [10]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market is entering a data-intensive period, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data being a key focus that will influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] - If inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September, putting additional pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - In Europe, speeches from European Central Bank officials and economic data releases from the Eurozone will be important indicators for the euro's performance [1] Group 2 - The ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar provides emerging market currencies with a rare opportunity for recovery, particularly for those with strong fundamentals [2] - The combination of the dollar's historical weakness, easing geopolitical risks, and a return of market risk appetite is reshaping the global currency landscape [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, developments in geopolitical situations, and the divergence in economic fundamentals across countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the Eurozone is facing a historic strategic window due to structural pressures on the US dollar system, which includes increased political polarization in the US, frequent adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, and a global trust crisis stemming from geopolitical strategic contraction [3]. Group 1: Eurozone's Strategic Position - Lagarde emphasized the need for the Eurozone to leverage its institutional advantages, such as the ECB's transparent policy transmission mechanism, a robust financial regulatory framework developed through the subprime crisis, and the stability of the EU legal system, to reshape the Euro's strategic position in the international monetary system [3]. - The current capital flow dynamics are influenced by the ambiguity of the Federal Reserve's policy path and the political uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US elections, particularly the potential return of Trump, which is prompting global investors to reassess the long-term risk premium of dollar assets [3]. Group 2: Structural Reforms in the Eurozone - Two significant structural reforms are being advanced in the Eurozone: the deepening of the Capital Markets Union to facilitate cross-border investment and financing, and the innovation of common debt instruments aimed at creating a regional risk-hedging mechanism [3]. - These initiatives are expected to fundamentally enhance the Euro's status as a safe-haven currency, providing a scarce strategic resource of certainty in increasingly volatile global markets [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Euro to USD - The technical analysis indicates that the Euro to USD exchange rate is exhibiting clear range characteristics, with resistance levels concentrated around 1.1330-1.1335, and support levels at 1.1270-1.1275 and 1.1245-1.1250 [4]. - A trading strategy could involve positioning for a short near 1.1335, with a stop-loss set 40 points above the breakout, targeting the lower end of the range [4].