联系方式：15000295386 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 3 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约上涨 124 元至 6438 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6460 元/吨 （+160），华南瓶片价格 6520 元/吨（+220）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 6394 手至 6.74 万手，空头持仓增加 6137 手至 7.24 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 31.15 万吨，环比+0.53 万吨。国内 聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 67.2%，环比+1.1%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5688 元，环 比+51 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-14 元/吨，环比-44 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万 ...

早上好，先来关注下地缘局势。 特朗普：尚未就动武作出最终决定 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月27日，美国总统特朗普就伊朗问题释放最新信号。 特朗普表示，他希望与伊朗达成协议，并透露美伊将于当日继续进行更多谈判。特朗普对伊朗在核问题谈判中的表现"并不满意"，称美方计划与伊朗继续 举行更多会谈，"看看会发生什么"。 在被问及是否会对伊朗动用军事力量时，他表示"并不想这样做，但有时候不得不这么做"，同时强调尚未就是否发动打击作出"最终决定"，并重申"伊朗 不能拥有核武器"。 多国发布安全提醒，以色列称正密切关注伊朗局势 随着局势持续紧张，多国纷纷发布安全提醒。 中国驻伊朗大使馆和驻以色列大使馆发文，郑重提醒中国公民密切关注安全形势变化。美国国务院27日更新针对以色列、约旦河西岸和加沙的旅行警告， 维持第三级"重新考虑前往"，并授权非紧急美国政府人员及其家属撤离以色列。美国驻以大使赫卡比就此表示，如要离开以色列，务必"今天离开"。 英国政府27日称，出于安全形势考虑，从伊朗暂时撤出使馆工作人员。加拿大政府26日称，鉴于地区局势持续紧张，加拿大公民应立即撤离伊朗。希腊、 法国、波兰、哈萨克斯坦、塞浦路斯等国27日纷纷发布 ...

早上好，先来关注下地缘局势。 特朗普：尚未就动武作出最终决定 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月27日，美国总统特朗普就伊朗问题释放最新信号。 特朗普表示，他希望与伊朗达成协议，并透露美伊将于当日继续进行更多谈判。特朗普对伊朗在核问题谈判中的表现"并不满意"，称美方计划与伊朗继续 举行更多会谈，"看看会发生什么"。 在被问及是否会对伊朗动用军事力量时，他表示"并不想这样做，但有时候不得不这么做"，同时强调尚未就是否发动打击作出"最终决定"，并重申"伊朗 不能拥有核武器"。 多国发布安全提醒，以色列称正密切关注伊朗局势 随着局势持续紧张，多国纷纷发布安全提醒。 中国驻伊朗大使馆和驻以色列大使馆发文，郑重提醒中国公民密切关注安全形势变化。美国国务院27日更新针对以色列、约旦河西岸和加沙的旅行警告， 维持第三级"重新考虑前往"，并授权非紧急美国政府人员及其家属撤离以色列。美国驻以大使赫卡比就此表示，如要离开以色列，务必"今天离开"。 英国政府27日称，出于安全形势考虑，从伊朗暂时撤出使馆工作人员。加拿大政府26日称，鉴于地区局势持续紧张，加拿大公民应立即撤离伊朗。希腊、 法国、波兰、哈萨克斯坦、塞浦路斯等国27日纷纷发布 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好，先来关注下地缘局势。 特朗普：尚未就动武作出最终决定 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月27日，美国总统特朗普就伊朗问题释放最新信号。 特朗普表示，他希望与伊朗达成协议，并透露美伊将于当日继续进行更多谈判。特朗普对伊朗在核问题 谈判中的表现"并不满意"，称美方计划与伊朗继续举行更多会谈，"看看会发生什么"。 在被问及是否会对伊朗动用军事力量时，他表示"并不想这样做，但有时候不得不这么做"，同时强调尚 未就是否发动打击作出"最终决定"，并重申"伊朗不能拥有核武器"。 多国发布安全提醒，以色列称正密切关注伊朗局势 随着局势持续紧张，多国纷纷发布安全提醒。 中国驻伊朗大使馆和驻以色列大使馆发文，郑重提醒中国公民密切关注安全形势变化。美国国务院27日 更新针对以色列、约旦河西岸和加沙的旅行警告，维持第三级"重新考虑前往"，并授权非紧急美国政府 人员及其家属撤离以色列。美国驻以大使赫卡比就此表示，如要离开以色列，务必"今天离开"。 英国政府27日称，出于安全形势考虑，从伊朗暂时撤出使馆工作人员。加拿大政府26日称，鉴于地区局 势持续紧张 ...

摘要今日周五(2月27日)亚盘时段，现货黄金先回踩后上行，目前运行在5190美元一线，市场在美国与 伊朗于日内瓦举行第三轮间接核谈判前保持观望，希望获得有关地缘政治局势缓和的信号，黄金正试图 突破5200美元的阻力位，但本周以来始终未能守住涨幅。这种"屡攻不破"的局面恰恰反映出市场缺乏明 确的方向性催化剂——多空双方都在等待日内瓦谈判的结果揭晓。 今日周五(2月27日)亚盘时段，现货黄金先回踩后上行，目前运行在5190美元一线，市场在美国与伊朗 于日内瓦举行第三轮间接核谈判前保持观望，希望获得有关地缘政治局势缓和的信号，黄金正试图突破 5200美元的阻力位，但本周以来始终未能守住涨幅。这种"屡攻不破"的局面恰恰反映出市场缺乏明确的 方向性催化剂——多空双方都在等待日内瓦谈判的结果揭晓。 关于伊朗核问题长达数十年的争端再次引发讨论，与此同时，人们对中东局势爆发的担忧日益加剧。特 朗普一再威胁，如果无法达成协议，美国将采取行动，而美军也已在伊朗附近海域集结兵力。 FOREX.com市场分析师Razan Hilal说："黄金和白银正试图突破各自的阻力价位——5200美元/盎司和90 美元/盎司。如果短期内达成地缘政 ...

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2604 | | 1236.0 | -3.33% | 337.5 | 28825 | | 36174 | 819 | | | EC2605 | | 1414.8 | -1.41% | 158.7 | 178 | | 3ેરે | 44 | | | EC2606 | | 1621.1 | -2.28% | -47.6 | 5854 | | 16649 | 287 | | | EC2607 | | 1812.0 | -0.92% | -238.5 | 41 | | 225 | 18 | | | EC2608 | | 1715.0 | -0.88% | -141.5 | 384 | | 1381 | 44 | | | EC2609 | | 1325.0 | 0.23% | 248.5 | ଚ | ...

今日国内金价走势出现分化，各品牌报价涨跌不一。市场整体价格区间在1494-1557元/克之间，老庙黄金以1557元/克领 跑，周六福报1494元/克垫底，而今日金店高低价差已扩大至63元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： 昨日现货黄金盘中重回5000美元大关，但受美联储官员的鹰派发言影响，金价还是出现回落，最终收报4996.14美元/盎司， 涨幅0.42%。今日现货黄金保持震荡，截至发稿，金价暂报5004.45美元/盎司，涨幅0.17%。 据昨日公布的美联储会议纪要显示，一些官员认为，若通胀如期下降，更有可能降息。但也有部分官员明确提出"若通胀持 续高于2%目标，不排除重新讨论加息的可能"。削弱了市场对美联储短期内的降息预期，压制黄金下行。 而在地缘政治局势上，俄美乌三方均称周三的日内瓦会谈"取得进展"，新一轮会谈也将在近期举行。稍稍缓解了市场避险 情绪，对金价有压制作用。 不过在美伊局势上，美国总统特朗普周四警告称，必须在10至15天内就其核计划达成协议，否则伊朗将面临"非常糟糕的后 果"。另据美媒消息，美军方已就对伊袭击时间表进行讨论。市场避险情绪又有升温，加剧了金价的波动性。 | | | 今日金店黄金 ...

客户端 美股周四表现向下，地缘政局局势升温，不利大市表现，三大指数均录得跌幅收市。美元走势向好，美 国十年期债息回升至4.07厘水平，金价反复靠稳，油价走势向上。 今日港股三大指数集体低开，恒指开盘跌0.18%，报26657.84点，恒科指跌0.69%，国企指数跌0.19%。 盘面上，科网股普跌，阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，百度跌超2%；有色金属板块活跃，中国黄金国际 涨超2%；石油股普涨，中海油涨超2%；汽车股走弱，理想汽车跌超1%。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技指数 | 5330.61 | -36.91 | -0.69% | | 800700 | | | | | 国企指数 | 9052.67 | -17.65 | -0.19% | | 800100 | | | | | 恒生指数 | 26657.84 | -48.10 | -0.18% | | 800000 | | | | 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 如何抓住"黄金牛市"波段机会？升级投资账户，一键配置金+银>> 如何抓住"黄金牛市"波段 ...

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - The geopolitical situation is causing heightened market anxiety, with reports indicating that President Trump is considering a limited military strike against Iran to compel compliance with U.S. nuclear agreement demands [1][9] - This geopolitical tension, combined with divergences in Federal Reserve monetary policy, is increasing market risk aversion, leading to a rise in international precious metal futures [1][7] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.12% to $5015.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.09% to $78.44 per ounce [1][7] U.S. Stock Market Performance - All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower on February 19, with the Dow Jones down 0.54% to 49395.16 points, the S&P 500 down 0.28% to 6861.89 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.31% to 22682.73 points [3][4] - The technology sector saw widespread declines, with significant drops in major tech stocks, while airline stocks also fell [4][5] Corporate Developments - Walmart has been surpassed by Amazon as the world's highest-grossing company, with Amazon reporting annual sales of $717 billion, compared to Walmart's $713.2 billion for the same period [4][6] - Walmart's Q4 revenue for the fiscal year ending January 31 was $190.66 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5.6% [6]

Report Summary Market Focus - The US and Iran continue to advance negotiations [7]. - OPEC maintains its global crude oil demand growth forecast [7]. - OPEC+ crude oil production in January decreased by 439,000 barrels per day month-on-month [7]. Key Data - As of February 4, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.5%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period [7]. - As of February 13, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the previous week [7]. - As of February 13, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 616,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous week [7]. - As of February 13, the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 988,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [7]. Main Viewpoint - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a weak trend due to the transmission of oil prices. Crude oil prices were suppressed by both the easing of geopolitical tensions and the decline in market risk appetite, showing a volatile and weak trend [8]. - In the future, before the geopolitical situation becomes clear, crude oil is expected to maintain high volatility and lack a clear directional driver. It is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the second - round negotiations between the US and Iran [8]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: raw material disruptions, geopolitical disruptions [12]. - Bearish factor: ineffective improvement in demand [12]. Macroeconomic Analysis US - Iran Negotiations - The indirect US - Iran negotiations have not achieved substantial results. The two countries are expected to hold more talks in the next few days. The US may send a second aircraft carrier if the negotiations fail. The situation remains uncertain, and concerns will support the market [13]. OPEC+ Production and Demand - OPEC+ production in January decreased by 439,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in Kazakhstan's production [14]. - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and 2027, with expected growth of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 [14]. - There may be a slight supply surplus of about 250,000 barrels per day in the second quarter [14]. - The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 will be the key to observe whether the production strategy will be adjusted [14]. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of February 13, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the previous week. Refinery operating rates are in a seasonal decline, and supply pressure is expected to decrease [15]. - As of February 4, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.5%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period [22]. Demand - As of February 13, the weekly asphalt shipment was 257,000 tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons from the previous statistical period and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery [25]. - As of February 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 3.71%, a decrease of 0.91 percentage points from the previous week, and it is expected to remain low in the first quarter [28]. Inventory - As of February 13, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 616,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,000 tons [34]. - As of February 13, the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 988,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 173,000 tons [41]. Spread - As of February 13, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt diluted processing was 9 yuan per ton, an increase of 42 yuan per ton from the previous week. The crack spread decreased month - on - month, the basis strengthened slightly, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 51.98 as of February 11 [50]. Future Outlook - Before the geopolitical situation becomes clear, crude oil is expected to maintain high volatility, and there is great uncertainty in oil price fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday. Position control is recommended. Attention should be paid to the second - round US - Iran negotiations [52].