8月25日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价在周六出现上涨，今日部分金店金价有所回落，但整体 金价还是高了很多。目前，周生生黄金还是最高价金店，下跌4元.克，报价1010元/克。上海中国黄金 不涨不跌，报价969元/克，还是最低价金店。今日的金店高低价差扩大至41元/克。 现货黄金上周五晚间受鲍威尔鸽派发言影响，出现大幅拉升，盘中大涨30多美元，最终收报3371.69美 元/盎司，涨幅1.0%。今日金价有所回落，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3364.32美元/盎司，跌幅0.22%。 多伦多Corpay首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta分析称，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话释放的宽松信号显著超 出市场预期，这直接导致美元汇率承压下行，市场对9月货币政策会议上采取降息举措的预期持续升 温，投资者普遍认为美联储已为后续的货币宽松周期做好政策准备。 据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，目前市场对美联储9月降息概率期望为87.3%，10月降息概率为 93.6%。年内降息次数为2次。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年8月25日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为781.12元/克，上涨0.71%。 来源：金融界 2. 地缘政治局势：俄乌和平谈判加速推进，美俄乌会谈受关注。若冲突缓和，将削弱黄金避险需求；反 之，地缘政治紧张会增强黄金避险吸引力。如近期俄乌领导人双边会谈筹备等消息影响市场对黄金的避 险需求判断。 3. 经济数据表现：美国非农及CPI等数据受关注。数据走弱强化降息逻辑支撑金价，强劲则可能引发震 荡。如美国7月PPI显示价格压力回升，削减了对"超大幅降息"的押注，影响黄金价格。 走势展望点评 黄金走势受多因素交织影响。短期来看，美联储降息预期和地缘政治局势变化将主导金价波动。若美联 储释放明确降息信号或地缘政治紧张加剧，金价有望上涨；反之则可能承压。长期而言，若全球经济不 确定性增加、降息周期开启，黄金作为避险资产和抗通胀工具，仍有上涨空间，但需警惕经济数据好转 或美联储政策转向带来的回调风险。 国际黄金价格报3411.4美元/盎司，下跌0.21%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 1. 美联储降息预期：市场普遍预期美联储9月降息，CME FedWatch工具显示9月降息25个基点概率接近 ...

美联储货币政策的潜在影响 美联储主席鲍威尔在 8 月 22 日的杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表讲话，暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储 仍可能在未来数月降息。这一表态引发了市场的强烈反应，交易员在其讲话后增加了对美联储降息幅度的押注，互换市 场预计美联储年末前将有近 100 个基点的降息幅度。下周，市场将继续密切关注美联储官员的讲话以及相关政策动态。 千里马常有，而伯乐不常有，人生最快意的三件事莫过于：棋逢对手，酒逢知己，将遇良才！实力打造精典，成功绝非 偶然！佛渡有缘人，我渡有心人！【更多行情资讯敬请关注"钟亿金"】 展望下周（2025 年 8 月 26 日至 8 月 30 日）的黄金市场行情，众多复杂且相互交织的因素将对其走势产生关键影响，这 些因素涵盖地缘政治、经济数据与货币政策以及市场供需结构等多个层面。 地缘政治局势方面：中东局势紧张或成黄金上行支撑 当前，中东地区的地缘政治局势依旧处于高度紧张的状态。巴以冲突虽未出现大规模的军事行动升级，但加沙地带的人 道主义危机持续发酵，当地的医疗系统濒临崩溃，民众急需食品、药品和基本生活物资的援助。与此同时，以色列与黎 巴嫩真主党之间的边境局势也一触即发， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the "Trump - Putin Summit", and the market is in a state of waiting for further guidance with an increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, but the final outcome of the talks needs to be monitored [1]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and falling spot premiums. The high - sulfur fuel oil's summer power - generation demand is waning, and the upward space for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand in August. In the short term, the price will likely fluctuate within a range due to the lack of a clear one - sided driver [2][4]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in crude oil prices. With the recovery of supply and demand, the polyester chain follows the decline in the cost - end crude oil price [4]. - The methanol market has a situation where the Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the subsequent winter port destocking will limit the downward space, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price fluctuations [5]. - The polyolefin market is approaching the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October". The supply will remain at a high level after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall upward space is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply fluctuations and gradually recovering demand. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the inventory is expected to decline slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose. The WTI September contract closed up $1.31 to $63.96 per barrel, a 2.09% increase; the Brent October contract closed up $1.21 to $66.84 per barrel, a 1.84% increase; SC2509 closed at 488.2 yuan per barrel, up 4.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.95% increase. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations may boost market demand. The "Trump - Putin Summit" is about to take place, and the market is waiting for the outcome. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, and the overall view is "volatile" [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.03% at 2700 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.23% at 3449 yuan per ton. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, and the spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fell to a four - month low. The overall view is "volatile" [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.4% at 3510 yuan per ton. This week, the sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. The view is "volatile" [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.55% at 4666 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.89% at 4367 yuan per ton. Some MEG devices are shut down, and some polyester devices are restarted. The overall view is "volatile" [4]. - **Methanol**: The Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. The main contract will switch to January, and the price is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range fluctuations. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains at a high - level fluctuation, the demand is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The view is "volatile" [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the base - price data of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. 3.3 Market News - The Russian government is considering extending the full ban on gasoline exports until September [9]. - South Korea did not import Iranian crude oil in July this year and last year, and its crude oil imports in July this year were 11.3 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15][17][19][21][24] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [39][41][44][47][50][51][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties such as crude oil's internal - external market, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, etc. [56][60][58] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with their own professional fields and rich experience and honors [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. tariff policies, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions, leading to a volatile market environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 777.98 CNY per gram, down 0.87% [1]. - International gold price stands at 3403.6 USD per ounce, down 0.03% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - U.S. Tariff Policy: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has ruled that certain gold bars require tariffs, causing market turbulence and a spike in gold futures prices. However, the White House plans to clarify and maintain tariff exemptions, creating selling pressure on gold [2]. - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is favorable for non-yielding gold. Recent employment data supports the argument for three rate cuts this year [3]. - Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical events contribute to a risk premium for gold as a safe-haven asset. The U.S.-China tariff truce and meetings between U.S. and Russian leaders add to market uncertainty [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to the interplay of tariff policies, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and geopolitical tensions. Attention will be focused on U.S. inflation data and policy direction, with high uncertainty surrounding gold prices [4]. - In the long term, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates and geopolitical risks persist, gold may continue to be supported as a safe-haven asset [4].

Group 1: CPI Expectations - July CPI is expected to rise, with Bloomberg analysts predicting a month-on-month increase of +0.2% and a year-on-year increase of +2.8%[2] - Core CPI is forecasted to increase by +0.3% month-on-month and +3.0% year-on-year[2] - The Federal Reserve's Inflation Nowcasting predicts a month-on-month increase of +0.16% for CPI and +0.24% for core CPI, with year-on-year increases of +2.72% and +3.04% respectively[2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The expectation of a rate cut has increased due to geopolitical easing, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 2.43% and 3.87% respectively[3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6.7 basis points to 4.283% and the 2-year yield rising by 8.1 basis points to 3.762%[3] - The dollar index decreased by 0.97% to 98.18, while spot gold prices rose by 1.02% to $3,397 per ounce[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI for July recorded at 50.1, below the expected 51.5, indicating a slowdown in service sector growth[3] - New orders fell to 50.3 and the employment index dropped to 46.4, suggesting weakening demand in the services sector[3] - The New York Fed's consumer survey indicated a one-year inflation expectation of 3.09%, up from 3.02%[3] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The implementation of tariffs may lead to further inflationary pressures, with the potential for CPI to rise in the coming months[4] - There is a risk that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could lead to an inflation rebound if executed too aggressively[4] - The nomination of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board may increase internal disagreements regarding future interest rate paths[3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data influencing trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent gold price movements have shown a slight rebound, closing at $3289, indicating a small bullish trend despite overall bearish sentiment [1]. - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to increased global trade uncertainties, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is critical, as weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, potentially boosting gold prices, while strong data may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent rebound in gold prices was stronger than anticipated, suggesting limited adjustment space in the short term, with key support around $3270 and resistance near $3300 [2]. - A breakout above the $3300 level could lead to testing the 10 and 20-day moving averages around $3340, while a negative non-farm report could push prices down to the $3260-$3250 range [2]. - The suggested trading strategy includes short positions at $3300-$3305 with a stop loss at $3315 and a target of $3250 [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. unemployment rate, adjusted non-farm employment figures, and average hourly wage data, all scheduled for release at 20:30 on August 1 [4]. - Additional data points include the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and consumer confidence index, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [4].

Domestic Gold Market - The overall gold prices in domestic brand stores remained stable compared to last Friday, with Chow Sang Sang experiencing a two-day price increase, reaching 1012 CNY per gram, the highest among gold stores [1] - Shanghai China Gold quoted the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram, resulting in a price difference of 43 CNY per gram between the highest and lowest priced stores [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands are as follows: Lao Miao 1004 CNY, Liu Fu 1008 CNY, Chow Tai Fook 1008 CNY, and others, with no significant changes except for Chow Sang Sang [1] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices rebounded after a significant drop on Saturday, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price increasing by 3 CNY to 581 CNY per gram [1] Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price saw a slight increase of 3.3 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands: the average recycling price is 765.20 CNY per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang offers the highest at 778.20 CNY [2] International Gold Market - Last Friday, spot gold prices rose, peaking at 3361.05 USD per ounce before closing at 3349.42 USD, marking a 0.31% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3367.69 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.55% increase [4] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine [4] - Concerns over the expanding U.S. debt and potential tariff escalations are expected to continue driving the gold market [4] - Recent U.S. inflation expectations and consumer confidence data have influenced market sentiment, with inflation expectations dropping to 4.4% from a previous 5.0% [4]

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - In the first half of the year, copper prices experienced two significant upward trends, starting with a rise due to a weakening US dollar, followed by a sharp decline influenced by tariff policies, and then a recovery to stabilize around 78,500 yuan/ton [1] - The market is expected to focus on macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy, with limited negative impact from tariff policies on the macro market [2] Group 2: Supply and Refining Dynamics - New copper mines such as Sierra Gorda and Toromocho are set to commence production mid-year, but the global supply of copper concentrate remains tight [3] - Domestic smelting plants are anticipated to undergo a peak maintenance period from September to November, which will likely tighten the domestic spot market and elevate copper prices [3] Group 3: End-User Consumption - Cable manufacturing has shown a recovery in operating rates, but rising copper prices are exerting production pressure on these companies [4] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see a seasonal production increase in the second half of the year, while the automotive sector is projected to experience a production boost starting in July [4] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be driven by fundamentals, with supply and demand exhibiting a synergistic effect, leading to a potential upward trend [4]

Group 1 - The current gold price is around $3,336 per ounce, with geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties providing support, but no clear directional breakout has occurred [1] - President Trump's comments about potentially firing Fed Chairman Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [1] - New tariffs on drugs and copper from the U.S. have heightened global market risk aversion, supporting gold prices, although stronger-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims data exert downward pressure on gold [1] Group 2 - Gold is currently in a short-term downtrend, with a death cross between the 5-day and 13-day moving averages, while the 34-day moving average remains upward, indicating short-term pressure but not a complete trend reversal [2] - If gold can hold above the lower channel, there is potential for a rebound; otherwise, a breakdown could test the support of the 34-day moving average [2] - The trading plan suggests buying near $3,330 with a stop at $3,320 and a target of $3,360, emphasizing the importance of preparation and learning in trading success [2]