格隆汇12月23日｜特朗普政府撤销了对大盆地松鸡（greater sage-grouse）在全美8个西部州的保护措 施，进一步开放联邦土地用于能源和矿产开发。美国土地管理局（BLM）表示，此次对松鸡保护措施 的调整符合美国总统特朗普今年早些时候签署的两项行政命令，这些命令旨在释放美国能源产能并实现 能源独立。 ...

特朗普上任后不久，就签署了行政令，决定对中国出口的半导体、电动车和钢铁加征关税，税额总计高达6000亿美元。美国不仅如此，还联合盟国一起限制 中国购买先进设备。对此，中国作出了强硬回应，暂停了部分稀土和农产品的出口。双方针锋相对，全球供应链也因此陷入了混乱。美国国内的通胀压力增 加，物价上涨了3%，许多企业对此表示不满。 中国对钍的兴趣并非一时兴起，从1970年代起就开始进行相关的研究。2011年，国家科学院正式立项，集结了大量科研力量投入到钍的研发中。到2018年， 甘肃武威的2兆瓦实验堆建成，2021年主体工程完成，2023年开始运行，2024年加入钍燃料，预计2025年4月实现不关机加油，11月实现钍转铀的技术突破。 这一系列进展标志着技术的成熟。钍熔盐堆的设计非常巧妙，采用液态盐冷却，并在常压下运行，避免了爆炸的风险。它的底部设有熔塞，当温度过高时， 能自动排水，反应便会停止。该设计不仅使用水少，还能在内陆地区建造，灵活性强。而且废料处理简单，成本低。计划到2035年，钍基熔盐堆将进入示范 阶段，商业化进程指日可待。 中国的经济同样受到影响，出口减少了5%。这不仅仅是经济问题，更涉及到科技和能源的主导 ...

本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN T5W9A0GPL3XU 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 伴随行业飞速发展、地缘政治博弈、供需天平摇摆…全球能源市场时刻处于动荡之中。彭博行 业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您及时传递行业动态，并基于高质量数据、模型与分析 助您解读市场变化，看见全局、看向前景。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博能源行业研究双周报 中国下游天然气2026年展望 中国天然气政策将提振行业发展 天然气是中国实现2 0 3 0年碳达峰目标和保障能源安全的关键——"十四五"规划和国家能源局 促进天然气利用的报告均强调了这两项承诺。因此，预计2 0 2 5 - 2 0 3 5年中国天然气产量的年 均增速将达到5 . 3%，凭借庞大储量和完善的基础设施巩固其过渡燃料地位。优先保障国内天 然气产量，目标是到2 0 5 0年将天然气自给率提升至7 1%，远高于石油行业4 7%的预期自给 率。决策者正通过将管输价下调至少8%来刺激天然气使用，此举或将降低下游配气成本，并 推动输气量增长1 0%- 1 5%。我们的情景分析显示，新奥能源和中国燃气等中国下游燃气企业 ...

Core Points - The EU has reached an agreement to completely ban the import of Russian natural gas by autumn 2027, aiming to cut off a key energy source that supports Russia's military actions and promote energy independence in Europe [1][9]. Group 1: Energy Import Changes - Since the onset of Russia's military actions in 2022, the EU has initiated a "de-Russianization" process for energy, with Russian natural gas's share in total EU imports dropping from 45% in 2021 to 19% by 2024 [3]. - Despite the reduction, Russia is projected to remain the second-largest LNG supplier to the EU in 2024, holding a 20% market share with an estimated import volume of 20 billion cubic meters, valued at approximately 15 billion euros [3]. Group 2: Contractual Changes - Short-term LNG contracts will be terminated starting April 25, 2026, followed by the cessation of short-term pipeline gas contracts on June 17, 2026 [3]. - Long-term LNG contracts will be fully banned from January 1, 2027, while long-term pipeline contracts will be prohibited from renewing after September 30, 2027, with a final deadline of November 1, 2027 [6]. Group 3: Legal and Support Measures - The agreement allows European companies to invoke "force majeure" clauses to legally terminate existing contracts for Russian natural gas due to the EU's ban [7]. - The EU Commission is tasked with developing a special plan to ensure Hungary and Slovakia cease importing Russian oil by the end of 2027, following their previous exemptions from the oil ban [9]. Group 4: Strategic Goals - The core objective of the ban is to end dependency on Russian energy, which has been used as a weapon against Europe, significantly impacting the energy market [11]. - EU leaders emphasize that this agreement marks the dawn of a new era, signifying Europe's complete detachment from reliance on Russian energy sources [9][11].

容量达4200万升的布拉茹伊油库将成为波黑联邦石油储备体系的核心枢纽，与日维尼采、比哈奇和莫斯 塔尔共同构成国家战略储备网络。（驻波黑使馆经商处） 波黑联邦能矿部长拉基奇强调，波黑必须实现能源独立，能源供应必须避免政治化。联邦油库公司负责 人克雷索指出，普洛切—布拉茹伊线路的贯通将为建立符合欧盟标准的强制性储备奠定基础。波黑联邦 铁路公司也表示，此次运输表明其在能源安全中具备可靠、战略性的合作角色。经济学者阿拉波维奇认 为，这一进展具有重要地缘意义，是减少对俄罗斯石油依赖的关键一步，但未来仍需通过南部互联项目 降低对俄天然气的依赖。 波黑媒体Biznisinfo 11月24日报道。在完成布拉茹伊油库基础设施修复并取得相关许可后，首批4200万 升石油和汽油已通过普洛切-布拉茹伊（Plo e–Bla uj）铁路线成功运抵布拉茹伊，标志着波黑联邦时隔 三十余年重新建立战略石油储备体系。 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is preparing to announce a plan to allow oil drilling off the California coast, which is expected to escalate political tensions with California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom [1] - The plan to restart drilling is a core component of Trump's energy policy, reversing the Biden administration's offshore drilling ban in certain federal waters [2] - A federal judge in Louisiana ruled that the Biden administration's drilling ban was "illegal," providing a policy basis for the Trump administration to push for offshore drilling [2] Group 2 - Trump claims he can reduce U.S. energy costs by 50% or more through increased oil and gas production, aiming to appease voters dissatisfied with inflation [2] - Industry insiders express skepticism about Trump's goals, noting that many drilling companies prefer returning profits to shareholders rather than investing in new, high-risk offshore projects [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its growth forecast for U.S. renewable energy capacity this decade due to the Trump administration's cancellation of federal tax incentives and regulatory changes [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Interior Secretary has instructed the department to develop a new offshore oil and gas leasing schedule, emphasizing responsible energy development and job creation [3] - California strongly opposes the drilling plan, with Governor Newsom stating it will fail and highlighting the risks to communities [4] - California's resistance to offshore drilling is rooted in historical events, such as the 1969 Santa Barbara oil spill, which catalyzed the modern environmental movement [4] Group 4 - Despite California's push for clean energy, the state faces pressures from high oil prices and rising living costs, with its oil production declining over 50% in the past two decades [4] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) has urged the Trump administration to reassess the oil and gas potential along the Pacific coast, citing significant reserves that could be easily extracted [4] - Newsom is viewed as a potential Democratic presidential candidate for 2028, with his stance on energy and climate issues reflecting California's policy direction and potentially influencing national political divides [5]

Core Viewpoint - The EU is at a critical juncture regarding its energy policy, debating whether to completely sever its dependence on Russian fossil fuels or to extend the deadline to 2028, with significant implications for energy security and member state dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Dependency and Member State Dynamics - Hungary remains the leading EU country in importing Russian energy, with oil and gas imports reaching €166 million and €226 million respectively in September 2023 [4]. - The debate over the energy ban is not just about timing but also about balancing the differing interests of member states, with Hungary and Slovakia being the most vocal opponents [3][6]. - The "Druzhba" and "TurkStream" pipelines provide Hungary and Slovakia with cheap Russian gas, making them resistant to the ban despite alternative supply options [6]. Group 2: Challenges in Energy Transition - The EU has made significant progress in reducing Russian seaborne oil imports since 2022, but natural gas still constitutes two-thirds of its fossil fuel imports from Russia [3]. - Norway and the U.S. are gradually filling the gap in EU gas supply, with Norway accounting for one-third of EU gas imports and the U.S. becoming the second-largest supplier [6]. - The global LNG market is highly competitive, with rising demand from Asian countries leading to supply constraints, complicating the EU's transition [8]. Group 3: Regulatory and Policy Implications - The EU's sanctions against Russian LNG began in October 2023, but the execution of these sanctions is complex and requires consensus every six months [10]. - The "Energy Reuse Act" allows member states to suspend bans in "emergency situations," which are vaguely defined, creating potential loopholes in enforcement [10]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surge in LNG supply from the U.S. and Canada by 2026, which may shift the market dynamics in favor of buyers [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The EU's ability to fully disconnect from Russian energy by 2027 or 2028 is fraught with challenges, including Hungary's firm stance, Turkey's role as a transit hub, and difficulties in diversifying energy sources [12]. - The ongoing geopolitical shifts in the global energy landscape will significantly influence the EU's energy independence strategy and its internal cohesion [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated $1.6 billion in aggregate subscriber value, a 10% year-over-year increase [4] - Contracted net value creation was $279 million, growing 35% year-over-year [4] - Cash generation reached $108 million, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of positive cash generation [5][20] - Subscriber value increased to approximately $52,500, an 11% increase compared to the prior year [16] - Net subscriber value grew by 38% year-over-year to approximately $13,200 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The storage attachment rate increased by 10 percentage points to 70% [16] - The upfront net subscriber value improved to over $3,500, reflecting a five-point margin improvement compared to the prior year [5] - The company reported a solid upfront net value creation of approximately $106 million from subscriber additions in Q3 [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has installed over 217,000 storage systems, contributing to 416 megawatts of power capacity over the last year [8] - The electricity demand is expected to grow by more than 40% over the next 15 years, driven by data centers and AI [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on providing energy independence to Americans, leading to strong results and cash generation while growing its customer base [4] - The strategy includes balancing margins and growth while innovating and expanding offerings for customers [5] - The company aims to have more than 10 gigawatt-hours of dispatchable energy online by the end of 2028 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth of cash flow streams from storage and utility-scale energy resources [9] - The company reiterated its guidance for 2025, expecting aggregate subscriber value to be between $5.7 billion and $6 billion, representing 14% growth at the midpoint [25] - Management emphasized a focus on margins, cash generation, and customer experience while building the largest distributed power plant [34] Other Important Information - The company has transformed into a formidable independent power producer with significant solar generation capacity [7] - The Lunar storage solution is expected to ramp production, with about 10,000 systems to be deployed over the next year [10] - The company has diversified its capital sources, including selling a portion of newly originated storage and solar assets [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Future capital strategy and implications for P&L - Management expects to continue using similar capital structures, which will show up as revenue and be accretive to P&L [29] Question: Monetization opportunities for dispatchable capacity - Management indicated that the 10 gigawatt-hour target by 2028 remains, with expectations for additional value creation from customer relationships [31] Question: 2026 outlook and market dynamics - Management is focused on margins and cash generation, expecting to gain significant market share while maintaining a disciplined approach [34][62] Question: Prepaid leases and competitive landscape - Management views the prepaid lease model as potentially complicating for consumers and not a direct competitor to their offerings [38] Question: Capital allocation and buyback considerations - Management is focused on debt paydown and will explore further capital allocation options based on market conditions [60]

Core Insights - Sunrun's customer base reached 1.14 million, with an average year-on-year growth of 13.4% over the last two years, indicating that customers are spending less on the company's products and services [1] - The company's revenue growth has slowed significantly, remaining flat over the last two years despite a historical sales growth rate of 22.3% compounded annually over the past five years [2][3] - Sunrun reported Q3 CY2025 results with a revenue increase of 34.9% year-on-year to $724.6 million, exceeding market expectations by 22.4%, but its GAAP profit of $0.06 per share was 58.2% below analysts' estimates [5][6] Customer Dynamics - The number of customers has been growing, but the average spending per customer has decreased, suggesting a potential issue with pricing or product value perception [1] - The company is focusing on energy independence for Americans, which is reflected in its growing customer base and cash generation [4] Financial Performance - Sunrun's operating margin has been negative, averaging -72.3% over the last five years, raising concerns about its cost structure and ability to sustain profitability [9][10] - Despite a breakeven operational margin this quarter, the company has struggled with rising costs that it could not pass on to customers [10] - Earnings per share (EPS) declined by 208% annually over the last five years, despite revenue growth, indicating challenges in profitability [12][14] Future Outlook - Analysts project a revenue growth of 3.2% over the next 12 months, suggesting that newer products and services may improve performance, although this is still below the sector average [6] - The market reacted negatively to the earnings report, with the stock trading down 6% to $19.14, indicating that investor expectations were not met despite some positive revenue figures [16]

Group 1 - The core message of Trump's speech was to highlight his economic policies, claiming significant achievements such as "deregulation" and "energy independence" [1][3] - Trump emphasized a recent trip to Asia, claiming it resulted in "transformative breakthroughs" and large investments from Japan, specifically mentioning a $10 billion investment, which was later disputed by Toyota [3][4] - Despite Trump's claims of controlling inflation and increasing employment, public sentiment reflected concerns over high prices and job availability, as indicated by a survey of over 17,000 voters [4][5] Group 2 - The October ADP employment data showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, which, while slightly better than expected, was significantly lower compared to earlier in the year when job growth was much higher [5][20] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported at 3.2%, indicating inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5][21] - Trump's claims of economic prosperity were contradicted by data showing a decline in manufacturing PMI and a lack of job growth in the goods-producing sector, with only 9,000 new jobs added in one month [20][21] Group 3 - The choice of Miami for the forum was strategic, as Florida is a key swing state in elections, and local political support was evident from Miami's mayor [10][12] - Trump's plans for the G20 summit to be held at his own golf club raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest, as it could serve to promote his family business [12][23] - The proposed location for Trump's presidential library in Miami is currently facing legal disputes, which could delay the project [15][23] Group 4 - The forum included the FIFA president to promote the upcoming 2026 World Cup, linking sports to economic growth and enhancing Miami's international profile [18][26] - Trump's rhetoric about economic achievements was seen as a blend of politics, business, and sports, aiming to create a favorable public image while facing criticism for lacking substantive results [26]