来源：市场资讯 （来源：申万宏源融成） 美国弱通胀+日央行鸽派加息，流动性担忧缓解 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251213-20251219) 本期投资提示： 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251212-20251219) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦美联储政策走向的博弈，美联储此前的降息与扩表操作引发通胀反弹的担忧，而 11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6% 创 2021 年以来新低，又推动市场升温 2026 年更早降息的押注，加上本周五日本央行鸽派加息，全球流动性担忧缓解，市场风 险偏好先下后上。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.16%，本周下降3BPs，美元指数上涨0.32%，当前点位为98.7；2）权益方面，本周阿根廷、越南、 欧洲股市上涨较多，而科创板、恒生指数则出现下跌，韩国、日本股市跌幅较大；3）商品方面，本周黄金上涨1.25%，在俄乌冲突缓和叠加供应过剩影 响下，原油本周下跌0.93%。 全球资金流向跟踪：截止到2025/12/17，过去一周来看，内外资均流入中国股市；海外资金主动和被动方面，海外主动基金过去一周流出3.12亿美元，而 海外被动基金过去一周流入14.67亿美元；内资和外资方 ...

Core Insights - Jinglin Asset's overseas subsidiary submitted a 13F filing to the SEC, revealing its latest holdings in U.S. stocks [1] Group 1: Holdings Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, Jinglin Asset held 30 securities in the U.S. stock market, with a total market value of approximately $4.44 billion (around 316 billion RMB), an increase of over $1.5 billion from the previous quarter's $2.874 billion [3] - In Q3, Jinglin Asset initiated positions in 9 new stocks, increased holdings in 8 stocks, reduced positions in 6 stocks, and maintained positions in 7 stocks [3] - New positions included companies such as Xinsight Technology, UnitedHealth, SPDR S&P Biotech ETF, Apple, WeRide, MakeMyTrip Ltd, Uber, Spotify Technology SA, and Google C [3] - Increased holdings were noted in Meta, NVIDIA, Pinduoduo, Google A, Futu Holdings, Atour, Sea, and Huazhu [3] - The firm reduced its stakes in NetEase, Manbang, Alibaba, Beike, Intel, and TAL Education [3] - The top 10 holdings accounted for $3.637 billion, representing 82% of its total U.S. stock holdings [3] Group 2: Market Outlook - Nearly half of Jinglin's holdings are in Chinese concept stocks [4] - Jinglin Asset believes there is significant potential for inflows of overseas capital, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks expected to attract international incremental funds [4] - The current valuation of the Chinese stock market is considered attractive, and historical trends suggest that in a weak dollar environment, global funds will shift from the U.S. market to emerging markets seeking higher returns, highlighting the allocation value of the relatively undervalued Chinese stock market [4]

Market Overview - The successful outcome of the China-US-Switzerland talks on May 12 significantly boosted global risk appetite, leading to a general rise in global stock indices[5] - In May, the 20-year US Treasury auction was cold, with the final yield at 5.047%, raising concerns about US fiscal pressure[6] Global Fund Flows - In May, global equity funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, totaling $8.3 billion, while developed markets experienced an inflow of $30.5 billion[13] - Developed European equity funds received inflows of $24.7 billion, while Chinese equity funds faced a substantial outflow of $10.9 billion[25] China Market Dynamics - In May, China's fixed income market saw a notable inflow of $4.9 billion, while the equity market experienced a significant outflow[15] - The inflow ratio for Chinese fixed income funds was 5.6%, while the equity market saw a -1.1% outflow ratio[14] Sector Performance - In the US, there was a marked outflow from the technology sector, while industrials, telecommunications, and infrastructure saw inflows[41] - The inflow into US corporate bonds reached $39.4 billion in May, reversing the previous month's outflow of $23.2 billion[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns in the US, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and higher-than-expected tariffs from the Trump administration[36]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the US dollar following a de-escalation in trade tensions is perceived as temporary, with a long-term bear market for the dollar just beginning due to chaotic economic policies from the Trump administration that have disrupted global trade patterns [1]. Group 1 - Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data, maintains communication with major global investors, including hedge fund managers, corporate finance executives, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds [1]. - The inconsistent and fragmented tariff policies have irreversibly undermined investor confidence in the US dollar [1].