Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tariff upgrade is likely to follow the pattern of April 2025, with smaller market fluctuations. Trump's subsequent remarks have shown signs of moderation, and the market may have a strong learning effect from the previous negotiation model. As a result, market volatility may be lower and the recovery may be faster in this round of trade frictions. In the short term, it strengthens the long - end bullish momentum of US Treasuries [3][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of Market Feedback Patterns in Previous Trade Frictions - **2018.03 - 2018.06: Gradual Recognition Stage at the Beginning of Trade Frictions** - In March 2018, the US announced steel and aluminum tariffs and planned to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese goods. Initially, the scope was relatively narrow, and the impact on the global market was not significant. - Over the next three months, as the market recognized the threat of trade frictions, the Chinese equity market was under pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling about 11.45% cumulatively. The bond market strengthened due to risk - aversion sentiment, and the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds declined by about 19bp, showing a "strong bonds, weak stocks" pattern [1][9]. - **2019.05 - 2019.12: Global Resonance Stage with Re - emergence of Conflicts** - In May 2019, Sino - US negotiations broke down, and trade conflicts escalated again after a brief cease - fire. - Against the backdrop of high trade environment uncertainty and the global manufacturing PMI entering the bottom cycle, most global markets were in a "strong bonds, weak stocks" seesaw pattern in the second half of 2019. The yield of 10 - year US Treasuries dropped from 2.45% to around 1.74% within three months [1][12]. - **2025.04: Amplification and Rapid Recovery of Impact from "Reciprocal Tariffs"** - On April 2, 2025, Trump announced the "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a "reciprocal tariff" starting at 10% on all countries. This tariff had an unexpected magnitude and also targeted non - Chinese countries, causing a global impact. - The market reacted quickly. Within five days, major global stock indices fell between 5 - 15%. Funds flocked to "safe - haven" bonds. The yield of 10 - year Japanese Treasury bonds declined by about 32bp within five days, and safe - haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc strengthened. - After several rounds of negotiations, the stock market rebounded significantly, and the market gradually alleviated concerns about tariffs. The trading sentiment became relatively insensitive to marginal changes in tariff policies, reaching a consensus of "high - opening and low - running tariffs." The main stock indices basically recovered to pre - tariff levels, while the bond market showed differentiated performance due to factors such as fundamentals, inflation expectations, and political situations [2][14]. 2. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic Interest Rate Review 2.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Comments - As of the week ending October 3, driven by rising production and increased imports, US EIA crude oil inventories continued to rise after the previous week's rebound. The change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week was 3.715 million barrels, higher than the forecast of 2.25 million barrels and the previous value of 1.792 million barrels. Despite the larger - than - expected increase in inventories, concerns about Russian crude oil supply disruptions and the recovery of US demand boosted market sentiment to some extent, causing oil prices to rise slightly one hour after the data release [18]. 2.2 Review of Main Overseas Market Interest Rates - **US**: Trade frictions may intensify, and US Treasury yields are falling rapidly. This week (October 3 - October 10, 2025), US Treasury yields declined. Trump's tariff threat on Friday led to pressure on the US stock market, with the Nasdaq Index dropping 3.56% in a single day, the largest decline since April. The yield of 10 - year US Treasuries dropped 9bp in a single day, and COMEX gold rose 1.58% to $4035.5 per ounce. As the government shutdown may continue and trade frictions may re - emerge, funds are expected to further flow into the bond market. The recent unexpected increase in short - term debt issuance may imply a reduction in long - term debt issuance in November, which is beneficial for lowering long - end market interest rates [19]. - **Auction Results**: The 3 - year US note auction was neutral to robust, the 10 - year US note auction was weak, and the 30 - year US Treasury auction was relatively robust [22]. - **Europe and Japan**: - **Japan**: Under the expectation of "pro - stimulus" policies, the yield of long - term Japanese bonds is approaching a 17 - year high. The yield of 10 - year Japanese bonds is stable at around 1.70%, close to the highest level since 2008. However, the breakdown of the Japanese ruling coalition on Friday makes the future policy direction uncertain [30]. - **Germany**: German bond yields declined overall this week [30]. 3. Comments on Other Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: Vietnam and Japan reached new highs, while European and American markets generally weakened. Vietnam's VN30 had the strongest performance (+6.51%), followed by Japan's Nikkei 225 (+5.07%). European, American, and Hong Kong markets generally declined. The political turmoil in Paris led to a significant decline in the French stock market, and Trump's threat against China pressured the US stock market [31]. - **Commodities**: Safe - haven precious metals and base metals were strong, while energy, agricultural products were weak, and crypto - assets tumbled. Gold and silver prices rose significantly, driven by risk - aversion demand and a weaker US dollar. Base metals and energy raw materials also generally strengthened. In contrast, Brent crude oil, agricultural products, and Bitcoin declined [32]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Russian ruble led the gains, and the Japanese yen led the losses. The ruble rose 1.73%, while the yen fell 3.63% due to easing expectations [33]. 4. Market Tracking The report provides data on the changes in bond yields, stock index returns, commodity price changes, and foreign exchange rate fluctuations of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [39][48][55][59].

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The first meeting between US and Russian leaders in four years is scheduled for August 15, which may impact geopolitical dynamics [1] - The US has imposed additional tariffs on India, leading to a pause in defense cooperation [1] - The Federal Reserve's personnel changes are raising expectations for interest rate cuts in September, while the Bank of Japan hints at potential future rate hikes [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - July's CPI remained flat year-on-year, while core CPI has risen for three consecutive months, indicating a mild improvement in macroeconomic conditions [1] - The decline in PPI has narrowed, reflecting the effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [1] - Foreign trade growth reached a year-to-date high, with both imports and exports showing year-on-year increases [1] - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery in sentiment, with margin trading balances returning to 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices experienced fluctuations but ended higher, driven by a weakening labor market and expectations of Fed rate cuts, alongside increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks [1] - Oil prices saw a decline due to heightened trade tensions between the US and India, raising concerns over demand, while OPEC+ continues to increase production [1] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - US Treasury yields rose slightly as Fed officials maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy, increasing uncertainty around rapid rate cuts [2] - Chinese bond yields fell slightly due to stable inflation indicators, supporting expectations for moderate monetary easing [2] Group 5: Currency Market Trends - The US dollar index fell as July non-farm payroll growth slowed and unemployment rose to 4.3%, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in September [3] - The USD/JPY pair saw fluctuations, supported by the US 10-year Treasury yield maintaining an advantage over Japanese bonds [3] Group 6: Equity Market Performance - Global stock markets performed well, buoyed by weaker US non-farm data that enhanced expectations for Fed rate cuts, boosting risk appetite [3] - US tech giants reported better-than-expected earnings, particularly in AI and cloud sectors, further supporting market confidence [3]

Market Overview - The successful outcome of the China-US-Switzerland talks on May 12 significantly boosted global risk appetite, leading to a general rise in global stock indices[5] - In May, the 20-year US Treasury auction was cold, with the final yield at 5.047%, raising concerns about US fiscal pressure[6] Global Fund Flows - In May, global equity funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, totaling $8.3 billion, while developed markets experienced an inflow of $30.5 billion[13] - Developed European equity funds received inflows of $24.7 billion, while Chinese equity funds faced a substantial outflow of $10.9 billion[25] China Market Dynamics - In May, China's fixed income market saw a notable inflow of $4.9 billion, while the equity market experienced a significant outflow[15] - The inflow ratio for Chinese fixed income funds was 5.6%, while the equity market saw a -1.1% outflow ratio[14] Sector Performance - In the US, there was a marked outflow from the technology sector, while industrials, telecommunications, and infrastructure saw inflows[41] - The inflow into US corporate bonds reached $39.4 billion in May, reversing the previous month's outflow of $23.2 billion[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns in the US, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and higher-than-expected tariffs from the Trump administration[36]