特朗普政府终于松口了，在最新一版美国国家安全战略文件里，白纸黑字地承认，中国已经是一个和美国"近乎同等实力"的世界强国。要知道，几年前，他 们挂在嘴边的还是"从实力地位出发"和中国对话。 这个转变，就像一场持续多年的拔河比赛，裁判突然吹哨，承认两边势均力敌了。美国甚至还抛出了一个"特朗普版门罗主义"，说要战略收缩，把重点放回 自家西半球的后院。很多人调侃，美国这是从"全球球长"退位成了"西半球球长"。 美国为什么选在这个时间点"低头"？这背后可不是认输，而是三重精明的算计。首先，这是被现实逼到了墙角。中国的工业产能和经济发展摆在那里，贸易 战、科技战打了好几年，中国经济的韧劲反而更足了。 特朗普政府觉得，再硬撑着"世界唯一超级大国"的面子有点自欺欺人，不如承认现实，好歹还能给自己全球战略收缩找个像样的台阶下。其次，这是一招激 将法。把中国渲染成和美国"平起平坐"的对手，能极大地刺激美国国内的危机感，好凝聚两党遏华的政治共识，同时也能给欧洲和印太的盟友施压，催着他 们赶紧站队、一起出力。 最后，这里头还藏着一个不便明说的小心思：承认双方体量相当，也是在暗示，两个巨无霸要是真打起来，后果谁都承受不起。所以，未来的 ...

Core Insights - The global financial focus is shifting from the US, which is burdened by $38 trillion in debt and has recently cut interest rates, to China, which has successfully issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, attracting $40 billion in global capital [1][3][4] Group 1: US Financial Situation - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: raising interest rates could worsen the debt crisis, while lowering them would signal failure, with the IMF predicting the US debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 133% by 2025, the highest since World War II [3][4] - The US struggles to maintain its national creditworthiness, even facing challenges in funding its nuclear arsenal [3][4] Group 2: China's Financial Strategy - China has maintained the world's largest foreign exchange reserves at over $3.2 trillion for 18 consecutive months, and its recent issuance of sovereign bonds in Hong Kong is part of a strategy to counter the US dollar [4][11] - The issuance of $20 billion in US bonds last year attracted $40 billion in subscriptions, demonstrating China's ability to leverage its financial instruments to challenge US dominance [6][11] Group 3: Global Financial Dynamics - Countries like Argentina and Turkey, suffering from dollar dependency, are looking to China for financial support, indicating a shift in global financial alliances [6][12] - China's approach contrasts with the US's coercive tactics, as it builds trust through cooperation rather than dominance [11][12] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Implications - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are increasing their research efforts in China, focusing on sectors like consumption, renewable energy, and high-end manufacturing, indicating a strategic investment shift [15][16] - If China normalizes the issuance of dollar-denominated bonds, it could influence global capital flows by $1-1.5 trillion over the next five years, reducing the Federal Reserve's control over global interest rates [16][17] Group 5: Philosophical and Strategic Perspectives - The operation of dollar bonds is seen as a tactical maneuver, with capital flows representing the momentum, and the cooperative model embodying the overarching strategy [19]

上海金融业联合会常务副秘书长帅师表示，当前全球金融格局正经历深刻重塑，国际金融环境复杂多 变。在此背景下，本次沙龙聚焦"新形势下的国际经贸与投资"主题恰逢其时，期待与上海市欧美同学会 金融分会、上海对外经贸大学深化战略合作，共同构建开放协同的金融生态圈，为上海国际金融中心建 设贡献力量。 中新网上海10月21日电(范宇斌)近日，上海市欧美同学会金融沙龙第三期——新形势下的国际经贸与投 资专题会在上海对外经贸大学举行。 上海市欧美同学会金融分会会长陈伟利表示，上海市欧美同学会金融分会作为专业分会，侧重发挥专业 优势，服务上海国际金融中心建设。本次沙龙主题紧扣当前热点，不仅是学术讨论，更关乎中国下一步 对外开放与经济全球化进程，也牵动全球发展格局。本次活动为学界业界搭建了交流平台，有助于共同 应对国际经贸新挑战。 签约仪式现场。 上海市欧美同学会供图 在主旨演讲环节，专家围绕中美经贸、全球南方可持续发展、全球供应链重构、关税、跨境金融与支 付、东南亚投资和中国企业出海等议题，从政策趋势、战略布局与实务案例等维度展开深度剖析与研 讨。会议现场还举行了上海市欧美同学会金融分会与上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院战略合作协议 ...