（原标题：塞2025年底公共债务率44.5%） 塞尔维亚《今日报》2月4日报道，塞财政部公布数据，截至2025年12月底，塞尔维亚公共债务总额为 393.5亿欧元，占国内生产总值（GDP）比重44.5%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 4, 2025, the SM2603 contract was reported at 5,796, up 0.69%, with Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot at 5,520. The EU will ban Russian natural gas imports from autumn 2027. Fundamentally, inventory is rising fast, production is slightly falling, and inventory has risen for 9 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 87,000 tons, and iron - water demand is seasonally falling. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 582 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is 380 yuan/ton. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term trend of bottom rebound and volatile operation [2]. - On December 4, 2025, the SF2603 contract was reported at 5,546, up 1.65%, with Ningxia silicon - iron spot at 5,250, up 50 yuan/ton. From January to November, consumer goods trade - in drove related sales over 2.5 trillion yuan. Market transactions are mainly for end - user rigid demand restocking, and inventory continues to decline this period. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 270 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 565 yuan/ton. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term trend of bottom rebound and volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,724元/吨，环比上涨2元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,446元/吨，环比下跌2元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为634,165手，环比增加6,439手；SF期货合约持仓量为456,023手，环比减少26,448手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 35,230手，环比减少8,566手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 30,529手，环比减少9,615手 [2]. - SM5 - 1月合约价差为50元/吨，环比上涨2元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为38元/吨，环比上涨24元 [2]. - SM仓单为21,116张，环比增加5,265张；SF仓单为13,235张，环比增加1,980张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古、贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格均为5,520元/吨，环比无变化；云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,550元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,300元/吨，环比上涨50元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,180元/吨，环比上涨30元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，环比上涨50元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,499元/吨，环比下跌16.75元；SF主力合约基差为 - 196元/吨，环比上涨52元；SM主力合约基差为 - 204元/吨，环比下跌2元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为32元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,250元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为870元/吨，环比下跌10元 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为438.3万吨，环比增加8.7万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为38.09%，环比下降1.04个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.41%，环比下降0.40个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为194,775吨，环比减少2,135吨；硅铁供应为107,200吨，环比减少1,100吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为368,000吨，环比增加5,000吨；硅铁厂家库存为71,830吨，环比减少1,220吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.84天，环比增加0.14天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.80天，环比增加0.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为121,727吨，环比增加320吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,660吨，环比增加117吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.07%，环比下降1.10个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为87.96%，环比下降0.60个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为7,199.7万吨，环比减少149.31万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 国务院总理李强指出新型城镇化是扩大内需等的重要载体，“十五五”时期发展空间大 [2]. - 经合组织称G20经济体通胀率将从2025年的3.4%降至2027年的2.5%，多数经济体通胀将在2027年年中回归目标水平，OECD经济体公共债务率预计2027年达113%，美国国债规模已突破36万亿美元 [2]. - 欧盟将从2027年秋季开始全面禁止进口俄罗斯天然气 [2]. - 1 - 11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次，其中汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台 [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - On December 4, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1184.0, up 1.94%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was 1390, equivalent to 1170 on the futures market. Coking coal is in a bottom - oscillating state with short - term multi - and short - side fluctuations. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is oscillating [2]. - On December 4, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1651.5, up 1.69%. The first - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. The demand for coke has decreased with the iron - making output down by 1.60 million tons this period, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is oscillating [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） was 1091.50, up 21.00; J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） was 1651.50, up 27.00. JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） was 833449.00, down 14909.00; J期货合约持仓量（日，手） was 45213.00, down 1315.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 79594.00, up 17706.00; that of coke was - 387.00, down 670.00 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差（日，元/吨） was 92.50, down 1.50; J5 - 1月合约价差（日，元/吨） was 131.00, up 4.00. The coking coal warehouse receipt was 0.00, down 600.00; the coke warehouse receipt was 2070.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 1015.00, up 15.00; the price of Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1830.00, unchanged. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR, USD/wet ton) was 162.00, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1620.00, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1510.00, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1720.00, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1630.00, down 40.00; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1620.00, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00, unchanged. The J主力合约基差 （日，元/吨） was 178.50, down 27.00; the JM主力合约基差（日，元/吨） was 518.50, down 21.00 [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.10 million tons, up 0.50; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 321.40 million tons, up 16.10. The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged; the monthly output of raw coal was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.40 million tons, down 0.90. The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 465.00 million tons, up 8.10; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 247.20 million tons, down 6.20 [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1010.30 million tons, down 27.89; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.76 million tons, up 6.47. The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 801.30 million tons, up 4.22; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 625.52 million tons, up 3.18 [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 13.01 days, up 0.04; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.29 days, up 0.24 [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00. The monthly output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.95%, up 1.24 [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 46.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00. The monthly output of coke was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 81.07%, down 1.10; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.96%, down 0.60. The monthly output of crude steel was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 [2]. Industry News - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic cycle. The OECD predicts that the inflation rate of G20 economies will gradually fall from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2027, and the public debt ratio of OECD economies is expected to reach 113% in 2027 [2]. - The EU will completely ban the import of Russian natural gas from the autumn of 2027. From January to November, the trade - in of consumer goods drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. Among them, over 11.2 million cars and over 128.44 million household appliances were traded in [2].

Core Insights - The OECD's economic outlook report indicates that inflation rates in G20 economies are expected to gradually decline from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.5% by mid-2027, with most economies returning to target levels by that time [1] - There is an increasing divergence in monetary policies, with the European Central Bank potentially implementing 5-6 rate cuts throughout the year, while several Asian countries may reduce rates by 75-100 basis points [1] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts in January has sparked widespread market discussion [1] - Global public debt pressures are becoming more pronounced, with OECD economies projected to reach a public debt ratio of 113% by 2027, and the U.S. national debt surpassing $36 trillion, leading to rising interest payment pressures [1]