Group 1 - Monica Guerra from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management indicates that Trump could invoke U.S. trade laws to investigate unfair trade practices and impose tariffs based on national security concerns, with potential tariff rates rising from the current 16% to as high as 20% [1] - There is an ongoing lawsuit against Trump's tariffs aimed at preventing the imposition of tariffs under the pretext of stopping fentanyl influx and achieving fair competition, but it is unlikely to halt the administration's plans [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 11% and the Nasdaq Composite index by 18.7% since Trump announced tariffs on April 2, despite reports of potential 15%-20% tariffs on the EU [2] Group 2 - The market is attempting to rationally assess the situation, with the understanding that the full impact of tariffs may not yet be priced in, leading to potential economic and financial market differentiation [2] - A weaker dollar, down over 9.7% this year, affects U.S. companies differently; those with high domestic revenue may face increased costs, while those with significant international business could benefit from increased overseas revenue potential [2] - Higher tariffs are expected to drag down U.S. GDP, with the impact on consumers yet to be fully considered, suggesting that economic growth will be pressured and consumer costs will rise [3] Group 3 - Companies are advised to diversify their portfolios and adopt inflation-hedging strategies, such as investing in alternative or physical assets [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

Core Viewpoint - The rising geopolitical changes and increasing tariffs may lead to significant differentiation in monetary policies across countries [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - There is a notable increase in uncertainty within the international economy, which is influenced by structural changes [1] - These uncertainties significantly impact central banks' concerns regarding price stability and financial stability [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Trade Impacts - Geopolitical changes and rising tariffs are damaging international supply chains and value chains, leading to increased transaction costs [1] - The effects of these changes may differ between major importing and exporting countries, potentially exacerbating the differentiation in monetary policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The OECD warns that further increases in tariffs will exacerbate the slowdown of the global economy [1] Group 1 - The OECD highlights the potential negative impact of rising tariffs on global economic growth [1] - The organization suggests that the current economic slowdown could worsen if trade tensions escalate [1]